Browns sign RG3

[dieterbrock]

What's the point in signing a guy just to cut him? It comes down to two things with me on the draft picks.

One they just spent money on a QB they think is capable of coming in and leading their team. He's still young and while not really high priced they still spent valuable cap money on him.

Two your roster is so void of talent yet your going to spend the #2 pick on another QB. That was the first time rg3 fumbles or throws an int you have fans yelling to let the rookie play.

The Browns just invested in a QB but don't have much at all to support him. Go out with your excellent draft capital and build a team around him. If after the two years is up and he isn't the answer you move on from him. This avoids the who should start circus and let's you bring in help for your team. And now in two years if you need a QB you have more talent on the roster and your team is in a better spot to support a rookie QB. Whereas if you take Wentz this year and rh3 is the real deal you just wasted a #2 overall pick on a backup and you missed a chance to add a player to your roster to help.

Wentz just killed it at his pro-day and the only HC there to watch was Hue Jackson
You don't pass up getting who you think is the next Aaron Rodgers because you need a new center

 

[OldSchool]

so the browns shouldn't draft their qb of the future because they just signed a qb to almost back up money? c'mon man, listen to yourself.

.

I don't know what they'll do with the pick. If I was the Browns GM I'm not signing Griffin unless I think he can be my teams starting QB. Especially since I already have guys on the roster already capable of being a backup.

 

[OldSchool]

It wasn't if we don't move up it was if we don't address the QB spot. The comment I replied to said you don't trade up you take a QB at your pick only if the value is there. I'm of the opinion that if you think a guy is a starting QB its value at any pick.

 

[OldSchool]

Wentz just killed it at his pro-day and the only HC there to watch was Hue Jackson
You don't pass up getting who you think is the next Aaron Rodgers because you need a new center

Did I read the weather kept most of the coaches from making it? I agree take Wentz (Goff is second and Lynch third to me). But if I'm the Browns I don't sign RG3 it just makes a mess of your QB room. You've already got backups and you're drafting Wentz so what's the point of signing Griffin?

 

[Ram Man]

You know what they say about playing the lottery. Ya can't WIN if you don't play!
The Rams won't solve the QB problem in this draft picking at or below #15.

There is no reliable way to predict whether the Rams can draft a good QB at #2 or #62.

You want to get one high end lottery ticket with a say 60% chance of winning. To do this you want to give up multiple other lottery tickets each with only marginally lower chances of winning. That would be a bad decision.

 

[OldSchool]

There is no reliable way to predict whether the Rams can draft a good QB at #2 or #62.

You want to get one high end lottery ticket with a say 60% chance of winning. To do this you want to give up multiple other lottery tickets each with only marginally lower chances of winning. That would be a bad decision.

To say that the 62nd pick is only marginally less of a player than the 2nd pick is bad logic. There are anomalies as we've been saying. But to not take a QB at 2 because you MIGHT be able to take one at 62 just isn't going to happen.

 

[Mojo Ram]

There is no reliable way to predict whether the Rams can draft a good QB at #2 or #62.

You mean 100% fool proof? Of course not. Its a draft. If it was fool proof there would be no bad picks. You play the percentages based on history as you alluded too, which says franchise QB's are drafted in the top 10 of the first rd.
Franchise QB's are priceless. Draft picks are not.

 

[Ram Man]

To say that the 62nd pick is only marginally less of a player than the 2nd pick is bad logic. There are anomalies as we've been saying. But to not take a QB at 2 because you MIGHT be able to take one at 62 just isn't going to happen.

Not moving up to #2 or #5, etc. and taking a QB at #15 is more likely to happen. And for good reason. Exactly what picks to you think the Rams would need to give up to get to a spot to draft a QB you want?

Your odds of success drafting at #15 are only marginally worse than the odds at #2. Your odds of success drafting at #43 are only marginally worse than the odds at #15. In both comparisons there is a meaningful decrease in odds, but not a vast one.

 

[Mojo Ram]

The worst possible scenario for trading the farm to go up and get a franchise QB is what happened to Washington with RGIII.
Thing is, they're doing just fine. Despite Griffin completely flaming out and despite having no first rd picks for three years they won their division(a weak division) last year and made the playoffs. They fielded the 5th ranked defense in the league last year in ppg.

My point is that while it's risky to make a bold move, it's not a franchise killer if you fail. This idea that you must hold onto your picks like gold is misguided if a team is managed well. The Rams have fared very well in the UDFA market. They can utilize FA a little more without a couple 1st rd picks. There are ways to adapt, and when you have a franchise QB in place it sure makes all those other personnel decisions alot easier.

Goff and Wentz are better NFL prospects then RGIII was (IMO). Griffin had more upside i suppose but these guys can play(Goff/Wentz). Even if one disagrees with that evaluation...if you want a franchise QB you have to go get one. Drafting Lynch at #15 or Connor Cook at the top of rd 2 is NOT going to get it done. It just doesn't work that way.

 

[Prime Time]

I'm glad RGIII got a chance to continue his career and get a paycheck, and even gladder it wasn't with the Rams. But the Browns? Yikes! Good luck with that.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I'll paste this here. This is @Ramsey doing solid homework.
http://www.ramsondemand.com/threads...nfl-with-11-years-of-raw-qb-draft-data.43527/
--------------------------------

Some of you may ask, why only 11 years of data. I could say the pass happy NFL is rapidly changing. Or I could claim free agent franchise QBs are rare and to frigging expensive. That all may be true, but honestly I didn't have time to dig back any further.

Although I speak of the draft, I didn't target any specific 2016 draftees. So I elected to post my thread here instead of the college area. If I stepped over the line, I understand if the moderators choose to move this thread.



84 Quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 from 2004-2015

2005 draft classmates Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassell Kyle Orton, and 2012 Kirk Cousins are the ONLY worthwhile QB's in the bunch.. What else is mindboggling? Zero playoff appearances from our Four Musketeers.

My conclusions-
1. Despite rumors to the contrary, scouting quarterbacks has improved immensely! Since 2005 Kirk Cousins is the only solid starter drafted after round3.

2. The odds of drafting a Franchise Quarterback in rounds 4-7 are nil. The odds of drafting a servable game manager QB are roughly-4.7%

13 Quarterbacks drafted in round 3 from 2004-2015

Russell Wilson, Matt Schwab, and Nick Foles are crème la crème of the 3rd round Quarterbacks. We know about Nick Foles and Russell Wilson.

Two time pro-bowler Matt Schwab amassed 24851 career passing yards, 133 TD's, and 99 interceptions. Schwab has a 1-1 playoff record.

Russell Wilson is by far the best. Agreed? Sean Mannion is our 3rd round pick. Factoring in the fact that Mannion hasn't been the league long enough yet, the odds of drafting an All Pro in the 3rd round are roughly 1 in 6 or 16%. ( The crazy thing is all 3 quarterbacks have a probowl appearance in their back pocket. Foles and Schwab's good old days are behind them. )

The odds of you drafting a Quarterback in the 3rd round that will take you to a Superbowl are 7.7%

15 Quarterbacks drafted in round 2 from 2004-2015.

Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are NFL Starting caliber QB's who could take you to a Superbowl. The jury is out on Brock Osweiler and Jimmy Garoppolo. Though Colin Kaepernick's has been to Superbowl his career has been UP then down.

I count 5 backup QB's and 3 complete busts. You have a 33% chance of obtaining a starting quarterback out of the 2nd round. Because most these 2nd round QB's haven't finished their careers, I can't calculate the odds of Superbowl starting QB appearances, but I would guess 2-4 Superbowl appearences total.

Now look at Brock Osweiler's contract. If Jimmy Garoppolo goes 5-2 as a back with two 300 yard games, what kind of draft pick could the Patriots command in a trade for Garoppolo. How big a contract could Garoppolo command in free agency in a quarterback hungry NFL?



19 Quarterbacks drafted between picks 5 and 32 in the first round between 2004-2015.

6 out the 19 or 31.5% of 1st round Quarterbacks draft between 5 and 32 are solid starters. These six QB's include Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater.

Of these QB's,
Joe Flacco (drafted 2008), Roethlisberger (2004), and Aaron Rodgers (2005) have led their team to multiple playoff appearances and Superbowls. (It's been 8 years since a QB of this caliber has been drafted after the 4th pick in round one.

Picks 5-32, the last 9 drafts beginning with the 2006 draft, have begat Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manual, Ryan Tannehill, Jake Locker, Mark Schanez, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Pretty slim pickings for first round draftee's.

Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill and possible Teddy Bridgewater are cream of crop when it comes to picks 5-32. 4 solid starters in 9 drafts

14 Quarterbacks drafted with picks 1-4 between 2004-2015

2 busts- Vince Young and Jamarcus Russell

6 ALL PRO's- Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mathew Stafford

3 Too Young to Judge, but could be great- Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota

2 Solid Starters- Sam Bradford and Alex Smith

1 Probable bust but maybe not- R3 lll

The odds of you drafting a multi year starter within the first 4 picks of the draft are roughly 10/14. Or 71%!!!





Bottom Line
In the last 9 drafts, since 2006 draft on, 106 quarterbacks have been picked from the (5th pick of first round) through the end of 7th round.

The best of the 106? Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Eight solid starting quarterbacks in 10 years! Only Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton were drafted after the first round. The others are either retired, washed up, on a downward spiral, or haven't done it yet.

If the recent past points towards a similar future, then the odds of a team drafting a franchise quarterback after the 4th pick of the first round are 8/106 or 7.5% compared to 71% if you draft a QB within the first 4 picks.

Review-
Odds of finding starter rounds 4-7 .............4.7%
Odds of finding starter 3rd round...............16.6%
Odds of finding starter 2nd round...............33%
Odds of finding starter after pick 4 of first round....31.5%
Odds of finding starter from 1-4 pick of 1st Rd......71%

*Although round 2 and round 1 (picks 5-32) QB's appear similar at first glance, I must point out that picks 5-32 of the first round picks Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco elipse the round 2 picks. There is a definite pizazz to the later 1st round picks that panned out.

Conclusion- Up until yesterday I was in the stay put and draft a wide receiver camp. That was before Brock Osweiler got his astronomical contract. As you know Brock has played only a few games with a SuperBowl defense behind him. So paying for a top tier free agent QB is risky at best.

It would appear that scouting QB's is getting better. Fewer great quarterbacks slip thru the cracks. I believe this trend will continue and accelerate.


We could pick through another teams trash for a Kaepernick, Manziel, or RG 111. There are huge issues with this route, but it could work.

We could see if a QB drops to us at 15. I figure the odds are 31.5% we find a solid starter that way.

Or we could bite the bullet and move up to the top of the first round and double our chances of finding the face of our franchise for the next decade.

Either way, the aftermath of my calculations suggests we draft a QB every other year, within the first 2 rounds. Until we have a franchise QB and a young solid backup whom we trade after 3 years to a QB desperate team. Then we draft another QB in the first 2 rounds every 3 years after we have found our Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton. Rince repeat. Kind of what the Patriots and Packers do.

I've only been contemplating these ideas since Osweiler's contract. I'm not married to my ideas. You guys are extremely knowledgable. I'm sure some of you will come up with superior ideas.

My calculations and ideas came from the raw data below....Forgive me if I made math mistakes.

2015 1 1 TAMJameis Winston
2015 1 2 TENMarcus Mariota
2015 3 75 NORGarrett Grayson
2015 3 89 STLSean Mannion.
2015 4 103 NYJBryce Petty
2015 5 147 GNBBrett Hundley
2015 7 250 DENTrevor Siemian

2014 1 3 JAXBlake Bortles
2014 1 22 CLEJohnny Manziel
2014 1 32 MINTeddy Bridgewater
2014 2 36 OAKDerek Carr
2014 2 62 NWEJimmy Garoppolo
2014 4 120 ARILogan Thomas
2014 4 135 HOUTom Savage
2014 5 163 KANAaron Murray
2014 5 164 CINA.J. McCarron
2014 6 178 TENZach Mettenberger
2014 6 183 CHIDavid Fales
2014 6 194 BALKeith Wenning
2014 6 213 NYJTajh Boyd
2014 6 214 STLGarrett Gilbert

2013 1 16 BUFEJ Manuel
2013 2 39 NYJGeno Smith
2013 3 73 TAMMike Glennon
2013 4 110 NYGRyan Nassib
2013 4 112 OAKTyler Wilson
2013 4 115 PITLandry Jones
2013 7 221 SDGBrad Sorensen
2013 7 234 DENZac Dysert
2013 7 237 SFOB.J. Daniels
2013 7 249 ATLSean Renfree

2012 1 1 INDAndrew Luck
2012 1 2 WASRobert Griffin
2012 1 8 MIARyan Tannehill
2012 1 22 CLEBrandon WeedenSt.
2012 2 57 DENBrock Osweiler
2012 3 75 SEARussell Wilson
2012 3 88 PHINick Foles
2012 4 102 WASKirk Cousins
2012 6 185 ARIRyan Lindley
2012 7 243 GNBB.J. Coleman
2012 7 253 INDChandler Harnish

2011 1 1 CARCam Newton
2011 1 8 TENJake Locker
2011 1 10 JAXBlaine Gabbert
2011 1 12 MINChristian Ponder.
2011 2 35 CINAndy Dalton
2011 2 36 SFOColin Kaepernick
2011 3 74 NWERyan Mallett
2011 5 135 KANRicky Stanzi
2011 5 152 HOUT.J. Yates
2011 5 160 CHINathan Enderle
2011 6 180 BALTyrod Taylor
2011 7 208 NYJGreg McElroy

2010 1 1 STLSam Bradford
2010 1 25 DENTim Tebow
2010 2 48 CARJimmy Clausen
2010 3 85 CLEColt McCoy
2010 4 122 PHIMike Kafka
2010 5 155 ARIJohn Skelton
2010 5 168 SDGJonathan Crompton
2010 6 176 TENRusty Smith
2010 6 181 CHIDan LeFevour
2010 6 204 CARTony Pike
2010 7 209 BUFLevi Brown
2010 7 239 NORSean Canfield
2010 7 250 NWEZac Robinson

2009 1 1 DETMatthew Stafford
2009 1 5 NYJMark Sanchez
2009 1 17 TAMJosh Freeman
2009 2 44 MIAPat White
2009 4 101 DALStephen McGee
2009 5 151 NYGRhett Bomar
2009 5 171 SFONate Davis
2009 6 174 DENTom Brandstater
2009 6 178 SEAMike Teel
2009 6 196 STLKeith Null
2009 6 201 INDCurtis Painter

2008 1 3 ATLMatt Ryan
2008 1 18 BALJoe Flacco
2008 2 56 GNBBrian Brohm
2008 2 57 MIAChad Henne
2008 3 94 NWEKevin O'Connell
2008 5 137 MIN John David Booty
2008 5 156 PITDennis Dixon
2008 5 160 TAMJosh Johnson
2008 5 162 NYJErik Ainge
2008 6 186 WASColt Brennan
2008 6 198 NYGAndre Woodson
2008 7 223 HOUAlex Brink

2007 1 1 OAKJaMarcus Russell
2007 1 22 CLEBrady Quinn
2007 2 36 PHIKevin Kolb
2007 2 40 MIAJohn Beck
2007 2 43 DETDrew Stanton
2007 3 92 BUFTrent Edwards
2007 4 103 DALIsaiah Stanback
2007 5 151 CINJeff Rowe
2007 5 174 BALTroy Smith
2007 6 205 WASJordan Palmer
2007 7 217 MINTyler Thigpen

2006 1 3 TENVince Young
2006 1 10 ARIMatt Leinart
2006 1 11 DENJay Cutler
2006 2 49 NYJKellen Clemens
2006 2 64 MINTarvaris Jackson
2006 3 81 SDGCharlie Whitehurst
2006 3 85 KANBrodie Croyle
2006 4 103 NYJBrad Smith
2006 5 148 GNBIngle Martin
2006 5 164 PIT Omar Jacobs
2006 6 193 CINReggie McNeal
2006 6 194 TAMBruce Gradkowski
2006 7 223 ATL D.J. Shockley

2005 1 1 SFOAlex Smith
2005 1 24 GNBAaron Rodgers
2005 1 25 WASJason Campbell
2005 3 67 CLECharlie Frye
2005 3 69 OAKAndrew Walter
2005 3 85 SEA David Greene
2005 4 106 CHIKyle Orton
2005 4 121 CAR Stefan Lefors
2005 5 145 DETDan Orlovsky
2005 5 152 NOR Adrian McPherson
2005 6 213 BALDerek Anderson
2005 7 229 KAN James Kilian

2004 1 1 SDGEli Manning
2004 1 4 NYGPhilip Rivers
2004 1 11 PITBen Roethlisberger
2004 1 22 BUFJ.P. Losman
2004 3 90 ATLMatt Schaub
2004 4 106 CLELuke McCown
2004 5 148 CHICraig Krenzel
2004 6 185 PHIAndy Hall
2004 6 187 BAL Josh Harris
2004 6 193 INDJim Sorgi
2004 7 202 ARIJohn Navarre
2004 7 217 SFOCody Pickett
2004 7 218 CIN Casey Bramlet
2004 7 225 DENMatt Mauck
2004 7 248 HOU B.J. Symons
2004 7 250 DENBradlee Van Pelt

 

[Mojo Ram]

True, but suggesting that we could fail if we do move up in this draft and Wentz/Goff flame out is an exaggeration too.

 

[Mojo Ram]

We could see if a QB drops to us at 15. I figure the odds are 31.5% we find a solid starter that way.

Or we could bite the bullet and move up to the top of the first round and double our chances of finding the face of our franchise for the next decade.

 

[Mojo Ram]

@Ram Man
@pmil66

Welcome to ROD! :cheers:

 

[baconandbread]

I'll paste this here. This is @Ramsey doing solid homework.
http://www.ramsondemand.com/threads...nfl-with-11-years-of-raw-qb-draft-data.43527/
--------------------------------

Some of you may ask, why only 11 years of data. I could say the pass happy NFL is rapidly changing. Or I could claim free agent franchise QBs are rare and to frigging expensive. That all may be true, but honestly I didn't have time to dig back any further.

Although I speak of the draft, I didn't target any specific 2016 draftees. So I elected to post my thread here instead of the college area. If I stepped over the line, I understand if the moderators choose to move this thread.



84 Quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 from 2004-2015

2005 draft classmates Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassell Kyle Orton, and 2012 Kirk Cousins are the ONLY worthwhile QB's in the bunch.. What else is mindboggling? Zero playoff appearances from our Four Musketeers.

My conclusions-
1. Despite rumors to the contrary, scouting quarterbacks has improved immensely! Since 2005 Kirk Cousins is the only solid starter drafted after round3.

2. The odds of drafting a Franchise Quarterback in rounds 4-7 are nil. The odds of drafting a servable game manager QB are roughly-4.7%

13 Quarterbacks drafted in round 3 from 2004-2015

Russell Wilson, Matt Schwab, and Nick Foles are crème la crème of the 3rd round Quarterbacks. We know about Nick Foles and Russell Wilson.

Two time pro-bowler Matt Schwab amassed 24851 career passing yards, 133 TD's, and 99 interceptions. Schwab has a 1-1 playoff record.

Russell Wilson is by far the best. Agreed? Sean Mannion is our 3rd round pick. Factoring in the fact that Mannion hasn't been the league long enough yet, the odds of drafting an All Pro in the 3rd round are roughly 1 in 6 or 16%. ( The crazy thing is all 3 quarterbacks have a probowl appearance in their back pocket. Foles and Schwab's good old days are behind them. )

The odds of you drafting a Quarterback in the 3rd round that will take you to a Superbowl are 7.7%

15 Quarterbacks drafted in round 2 from 2004-2015.

Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are NFL Starting caliber QB's who could take you to a Superbowl. The jury is out on Brock Osweiler and Jimmy Garoppolo. Though Colin Kaepernick's has been to Superbowl his career has been UP then down.

I count 5 backup QB's and 3 complete busts. You have a 33% chance of obtaining a starting quarterback out of the 2nd round. Because most these 2nd round QB's haven't finished their careers, I can't calculate the odds of Superbowl starting QB appearances, but I would guess 2-4 Superbowl appearences total.

Now look at Brock Osweiler's contract. If Jimmy Garoppolo goes 5-2 as a back with two 300 yard games, what kind of draft pick could the Patriots command in a trade for Garoppolo. How big a contract could Garoppolo command in free agency in a quarterback hungry NFL?



19 Quarterbacks drafted between picks 5 and 32 in the first round between 2004-2015.

6 out the 19 or 31.5% of 1st round Quarterbacks draft between 5 and 32 are solid starters. These six QB's include Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater.

Of these QB's,
Joe Flacco (drafted 2008), Roethlisberger (2004), and Aaron Rodgers (2005) have led their team to multiple playoff appearances and Superbowls. (It's been 8 years since a QB of this caliber has been drafted after the 4th pick in round one.

Picks 5-32, the last 9 drafts beginning with the 2006 draft, have begat Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manual, Ryan Tannehill, Jake Locker, Mark Schanez, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Pretty slim pickings for first round draftee's.

Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill and possible Teddy Bridgewater are cream of crop when it comes to picks 5-32. 4 solid starters in 9 drafts

14 Quarterbacks drafted with picks 1-4 between 2004-2015

2 busts- Vince Young and Jamarcus Russell

6 ALL PRO's- Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mathew Stafford

3 Too Young to Judge, but could be great- Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota

2 Solid Starters- Sam Bradford and Alex Smith

1 Probable bust but maybe not- R3 lll

The odds of you drafting a multi year starter within the first 4 picks of the draft are roughly 10/14. Or 71%!!!





Bottom Line
In the last 9 drafts, since 2006 draft on, 106 quarterbacks have been picked from the (5th pick of first round) through the end of 7th round.

The best of the 106? Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Eight solid starting quarterbacks in 10 years! Only Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton were drafted after the first round. The others are either retired, washed up, on a downward spiral, or haven't done it yet.

If the recent past points towards a similar future, then the odds of a team drafting a franchise quarterback after the 4th pick of the first round are 8/106 or 7.5% compared to 71% if you draft a QB within the first 4 picks.

Review-
Odds of finding starter rounds 4-7 .............4.7%
Odds of finding starter 3rd round...............16.6%
Odds of finding starter 2nd round...............33%
Odds of finding starter after pick 4 of first round....31.5%
Odds of finding starter from 1-4 pick of 1st Rd......71%

*Although round 2 and round 1 (picks 5-32) QB's appear similar at first glance, I must point out that picks 5-32 of the first round picks Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco elipse the round 2 picks. There is a definite pizazz to the later 1st round picks that panned out.

Conclusion- Up until yesterday I was in the stay put and draft a wide receiver camp. That was before Brock Osweiler got his astronomical contract. As you know Brock has played only a few games with a SuperBowl defense behind him. So paying for a top tier free agent QB is risky at best.

It would appear that scouting QB's is getting better. Fewer great quarterbacks slip thru the cracks. I believe this trend will continue and accelerate.


We could pick through another teams trash for a Kaepernick, Manziel, or RG 111. There are huge issues with this route, but it could work.

We could see if a QB drops to us at 15. I figure the odds are 31.5% we find a solid starter that way.

Or we could bite the bullet and move up to the top of the first round and double our chances of finding the face of our franchise for the next decade.

Either way, the aftermath of my calculations suggests we draft a QB every other year, within the first 2 rounds. Until we have a franchise QB and a young solid backup whom we trade after 3 years to a QB desperate team. Then we draft another QB in the first 2 rounds every 3 years after we have found our Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton. Rince repeat. Kind of what the Patriots and Packers do.

I've only been contemplating these ideas since Osweiler's contract. I'm not married to my ideas. You guys are extremely knowledgable. I'm sure some of you will come up with superior ideas.

My calculations and ideas came from the raw data below....Forgive me if I made math mistakes.

2015 1 1 TAMJameis Winston
2015 1 2 TENMarcus Mariota
2015 3 75 NORGarrett Grayson
2015 3 89 STLSean Mannion.
2015 4 103 NYJBryce Petty
2015 5 147 GNBBrett Hundley
2015 7 250 DENTrevor Siemian

2014 1 3 JAXBlake Bortles
2014 1 22 CLEJohnny Manziel
2014 1 32 MINTeddy Bridgewater
2014 2 36 OAKDerek Carr
2014 2 62 NWEJimmy Garoppolo
2014 4 120 ARILogan Thomas
2014 4 135 HOUTom Savage
2014 5 163 KANAaron Murray
2014 5 164 CINA.J. McCarron
2014 6 178 TENZach Mettenberger
2014 6 183 CHIDavid Fales
2014 6 194 BALKeith Wenning
2014 6 213 NYJTajh Boyd
2014 6 214 STLGarrett Gilbert

2013 1 16 BUFEJ Manuel
2013 2 39 NYJGeno Smith
2013 3 73 TAMMike Glennon
2013 4 110 NYGRyan Nassib
2013 4 112 OAKTyler Wilson
2013 4 115 PITLandry Jones
2013 7 221 SDGBrad Sorensen
2013 7 234 DENZac Dysert
2013 7 237 SFOB.J. Daniels
2013 7 249 ATLSean Renfree

2012 1 1 INDAndrew Luck
2012 1 2 WASRobert Griffin
2012 1 8 MIARyan Tannehill
2012 1 22 CLEBrandon WeedenSt.
2012 2 57 DENBrock Osweiler
2012 3 75 SEARussell Wilson
2012 3 88 PHINick Foles
2012 4 102 WASKirk Cousins
2012 6 185 ARIRyan Lindley
2012 7 243 GNBB.J. Coleman
2012 7 253 INDChandler Harnish

2011 1 1 CARCam Newton
2011 1 8 TENJake Locker
2011 1 10 JAXBlaine Gabbert
2011 1 12 MINChristian Ponder.
2011 2 35 CINAndy Dalton
2011 2 36 SFOColin Kaepernick
2011 3 74 NWERyan Mallett
2011 5 135 KANRicky Stanzi
2011 5 152 HOUT.J. Yates
2011 5 160 CHINathan Enderle
2011 6 180 BALTyrod Taylor
2011 7 208 NYJGreg McElroy

2010 1 1 STLSam Bradford
2010 1 25 DENTim Tebow
2010 2 48 CARJimmy Clausen
2010 3 85 CLEColt McCoy
2010 4 122 PHIMike Kafka
2010 5 155 ARIJohn Skelton
2010 5 168 SDGJonathan Crompton
2010 6 176 TENRusty Smith
2010 6 181 CHIDan LeFevour
2010 6 204 CARTony Pike
2010 7 209 BUFLevi Brown
2010 7 239 NORSean Canfield
2010 7 250 NWEZac Robinson

2009 1 1 DETMatthew Stafford
2009 1 5 NYJMark Sanchez
2009 1 17 TAMJosh Freeman
2009 2 44 MIAPat White
2009 4 101 DALStephen McGee
2009 5 151 NYGRhett Bomar
2009 5 171 SFONate Davis
2009 6 174 DENTom Brandstater
2009 6 178 SEAMike Teel
2009 6 196 STLKeith Null
2009 6 201 INDCurtis Painter

2008 1 3 ATLMatt Ryan
2008 1 18 BALJoe Flacco
2008 2 56 GNBBrian Brohm
2008 2 57 MIAChad Henne
2008 3 94 NWEKevin O'Connell
2008 5 137 MIN John David Booty
2008 5 156 PITDennis Dixon
2008 5 160 TAMJosh Johnson
2008 5 162 NYJErik Ainge
2008 6 186 WASColt Brennan
2008 6 198 NYGAndre Woodson
2008 7 223 HOUAlex Brink

2007 1 1 OAKJaMarcus Russell
2007 1 22 CLEBrady Quinn
2007 2 36 PHIKevin Kolb
2007 2 40 MIAJohn Beck
2007 2 43 DETDrew Stanton
2007 3 92 BUFTrent Edwards
2007 4 103 DALIsaiah Stanback
2007 5 151 CINJeff Rowe
2007 5 174 BALTroy Smith
2007 6 205 WASJordan Palmer
2007 7 217 MINTyler Thigpen

2006 1 3 TENVince Young
2006 1 10 ARIMatt Leinart
2006 1 11 DENJay Cutler
2006 2 49 NYJKellen Clemens
2006 2 64 MINTarvaris Jackson
2006 3 81 SDGCharlie Whitehurst
2006 3 85 KANBrodie Croyle
2006 4 103 NYJBrad Smith
2006 5 148 GNBIngle Martin
2006 5 164 PIT Omar Jacobs
2006 6 193 CINReggie McNeal
2006 6 194 TAMBruce Gradkowski
2006 7 223 ATL D.J. Shockley

2005 1 1 SFOAlex Smith
2005 1 24 GNBAaron Rodgers
2005 1 25 WASJason Campbell
2005 3 67 CLECharlie Frye
2005 3 69 OAKAndrew Walter
2005 3 85 SEA David Greene
2005 4 106 CHIKyle Orton
2005 4 121 CAR Stefan Lefors
2005 5 145 DETDan Orlovsky
2005 5 152 NOR Adrian McPherson
2005 6 213 BALDerek Anderson
2005 7 229 KAN James Kilian

2004 1 1 SDGEli Manning
2004 1 4 NYGPhilip Rivers
2004 1 11 PITBen Roethlisberger
2004 1 22 BUFJ.P. Losman
2004 3 90 ATLMatt Schaub
2004 4 106 CLELuke McCown
2004 5 148 CHICraig Krenzel
2004 6 185 PHIAndy Hall
2004 6 187 BAL Josh Harris
2004 6 193 INDJim Sorgi
2004 7 202 ARIJohn Navarre
2004 7 217 SFOCody Pickett
2004 7 218 CIN Casey Bramlet
2004 7 225 DENMatt Mauck
2004 7 248 HOU B.J. Symons
2004 7 250 DENBradlee Van Pelt

While I agree with a good portion of this, the information also tells us that there is less than a 2% sucess difference between picking our QB in the second round unless we can move ahead of pick 4 (which I feel we shouldn't give up the picks to do so). Since we've had such sucess picking BPA in round 1 recently (Donald, Gurley) I think we should take the best WR in the first and go QB with one of our seconds or trade those to move up if a QB they like is still there (Lynch possibly)

 

[dieterbrock]

But if I'm the Browns I don't sign RG3 it just makes a mess of your QB room. You've already got backups and you're drafting Wentz so what's the point of signing Griffin?

What's the point? Well, because you got him on a fairly cheap deal and thanks to the rookie cap, you wont be burying valuable cap room in to the QB. The Browns don't have back ups at QB, they have garbage. This move works out great for Jackson. He gets an experienced QB to break his system in with while Wentz gets up to speed. *Could* Wentz play day 1? Sure he could, but if he doesn't have to why not let him learn from the sidelines a bit? Especially with o-line questions. And with the contract structure, if RGIII doesn't play well, Wentz comes in mid season and takes over. If RGIII lights it up, with the lack of quality QB in the league, he would be a valuable trade commodity.
Makes too much sense all around IMO

 

[Ram Man]

@Ram Man
@pmil66

Welcome to ROD! :cheers:

Thanks.

For fun, let's use the statistical results from the @Ramsey link you posted above to determine how the Rams should draft a QB. Let's ignore any nuance or issues with those statistics for this exercise.

Odds of finding starter 3rd round...............16.6%
Odds of finding starter 2nd round...............33%
Odds of finding starter after pick 4 of first round....31.5%
Odds of finding starter from 1-4 pick of 1st Rd......71%

The Rams could trade up to get the #4 pick to achieve a 71% chance of finding a starter. We don't know what they'd have to give up but we can made an educated guess based upon past trades and pick value charts. For this exercise let's assume the Rams would have to give up:

#15 (1st) 31.5%
#43 (2nd) 33%
#76 (3rd) 16.6%
Cumulative: 81.1%

What choice should the Rams make? Should they trade their picks to move up? Should they use those same picks to draft 3 quarterbacks and hope that one turns into a winner?

 

[wolfdogg]

If your qb situation isnt settled come draft day, and you have a chance to take who you think could be your franchise qb in the draft, then you draft that qb. Plain and simple.