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The Five Keys To a Rams’ Victory Over Chicago
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/13/the-five-keys-to-a-rams-victory-over-chicago/
Other than the turnovers and injuries that have considerable impact in any game, here’s my quick-hit look at five areas that figure to be prominent in determining the Rams’ fate in Sunday’s noon brawl with the visiting Chicago Bears:
1. The Todd Gurley Show: The rookie running back is always paramount in the success of the Rams’ offense; to even mention this seems redundant. But there was a purpose to me being predictable. This will be Gurley’s sixth start. And if you go by the rankings for weighted rushing defense at Football Outsiders, the Bears are the least imposing group to take on Gurley since he moved into the starting lineup. The Bears rank 31st among the 32 teams in adjusted run defense, which accounts for strength of schedule. Using the standard stats, the Bears are 24th in rushing yards per game (121.6) and 27th in average yield per carry (4.63). But here’s the interesting thing about Chicago’s run defense: the Bears actually do a good job of denying big-play runs of 20+ yards. But no NFL rushing defense has been worse than the Bears in preventing successful running plays — which by definition are rushes that gain at least 4 yards.
But opponents have gone for at least 4 yards on 52 percent of their runs vs. Chicago. And only seven NFL teams have been rolled more often than the Bears on runs that net at least 10 yards. The Bears are among the worst defenses in the NFL against first-down runs, allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry. And the defense doesn’t come up with many negative plays that knock opponents back; the Bears have stuffed only 10 running plays this season — the fewest in the NFL. In other words, teams have just slammed away at Chicago’s defensive front with persistent, physical and powerful runs. Gurley is special because of his ability to break a defense with speed or power. He’s a breakaway threat at any moment — but also thrives at grinding away for the tough yards.
2. A Special Invitation for Nick Foles: For the most part the Rams’ quarterback has been a low-impact performer. And while there are many contributing factors to the league’s dullest passing attack, the good quarterbacks manage to find ways to step up and make plays. Foles has absorbed more total hits than any NFL quarterback this season, and the punishment could be wearing on him. But the Bears’ pass defense is an inviting, attractive target. Chicago has been rifled for a 101.1 passer rating this season, sixth-worst among the 32 teams. The Bears have been air-raided for 17 touchdown passes, and have countered with only four interceptions. And this final stat may prove soothing for Foles: the Bears have only 14 sacks this season. That’s 25th. Foles should have time to throw, and the Bears are awfully loose in their pass coverage. This seems like a good opportunity for a Foles’ warm-up.
3. Want To Do Better on Third Down? Here’s How: By now we’re tired of mentioning that the Rams’ third-down conversion rate, an abysmal 23.7 percent, is the poorest by an NFL team since the statistic became official in 1972. But here’s one way to get around that — come up with more positive results on first and second down. The Rams’ inconsistency and weakness in getting to third down is as much of a problem as executing on third down. Here’s a number that tells us a lot: when the Rams break the huddle and line up for second down, they face an average of 8.68 yards to go for a first down. No NFL team has been in a deeper second-down hole than the Rams this season.
Moreover, their second-down performance is lacking. According to STATS LLC the Rams are ranked last in the NFL in successful second-down plays — picking up 50 percent of the yards needed for a first down only 39 percent of the time. Their second-down rushing log is pretty dismal; the Rams have lost yards 11 times and gained no more than 2 yards on half of their 64 runs. The struggles on first and second down create too many highly unfavorable situations on third down. When the Rams need 6+ yards on third down this season, they’ve converted only 8 of 55 — or 14.5%. And when the Rams have to come up with 10+ yards on third down, they’ve failed 31 times out of 36. (A success rate of 14 percent). We spend a lot of time looking at what the Rams are doing wrong on third down. But speaking for myself, I haven’t paid enough attention to their skimpy production on the first two downs.
4. The Rams Defense Must Rest: Quarterback Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offense do a really effective job of extending possessions. Only three NFL offenses have had more possessions than last 10 plays or longer than the Bears’ 19. They’ve also scored seven touchdowns at the end of these sustained marches — a sign that the opposing defense is tiring along the way. (By the way: the Rams’ have had only only three possessions of 10 plays-plus.) The Bears have hogged the football for a minimum of five minutes on 12 possessions. They just keep moving the chains, steadily and efficiently, with a methodical approach that can make a defense impatient or weary. That’s one huge advantage that the Bears bring to this game; unlike the Rams’ offense the Chicago offense is strong at converting third-down and fourth-down plays, ranking sixth in the NFL at 44.6%.
One reason for the Bears’ extended stays is improved pass protection for Cutler. Previously one of the most hounded NFL quarterbacks, Cutler has been sacked on only 3.9 percent of the team’s passing plays this season. That’s No. 6 in the league at preventing sacks, and the extra security has enhanced Cutler’s play. Well, the Rams’ defense will try to chip away at the wall that shields Cutler, something this sack attack does very well. The Rams are among the NFL’s stingiest at limiting the number of extended drives by opponents. The Rams have forced three-and-outs by opponents on 21 percent of their possessions. The Rams’ defense has been taken for a ride on only eight of those five-minute drives. The Rams’ defense has stayed on the field for plays or more only 12 times. And the Rams are stopping opponents on third down at a rate of 66.2 percent that comes in at fifth best in the rankings. The Chicago offense doesn’t want to give up the ball; the Rams defense doesn’t want to stay on the field. Something has to give, right?
5. Superiority on Special Teams: I’ll keep this one short. I’m tired of typing (wink.) Football Outsiders has a formula for rating the overall, all-around performance of the league’s 32 special-teams units. The Rams come in at No. 10 in those rankings. And the Bears are last at No. 32. So the kicking game could swing in the Rams’ favor.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/13/the-five-keys-to-a-rams-victory-over-chicago/
Other than the turnovers and injuries that have considerable impact in any game, here’s my quick-hit look at five areas that figure to be prominent in determining the Rams’ fate in Sunday’s noon brawl with the visiting Chicago Bears:
1. The Todd Gurley Show: The rookie running back is always paramount in the success of the Rams’ offense; to even mention this seems redundant. But there was a purpose to me being predictable. This will be Gurley’s sixth start. And if you go by the rankings for weighted rushing defense at Football Outsiders, the Bears are the least imposing group to take on Gurley since he moved into the starting lineup. The Bears rank 31st among the 32 teams in adjusted run defense, which accounts for strength of schedule. Using the standard stats, the Bears are 24th in rushing yards per game (121.6) and 27th in average yield per carry (4.63). But here’s the interesting thing about Chicago’s run defense: the Bears actually do a good job of denying big-play runs of 20+ yards. But no NFL rushing defense has been worse than the Bears in preventing successful running plays — which by definition are rushes that gain at least 4 yards.
But opponents have gone for at least 4 yards on 52 percent of their runs vs. Chicago. And only seven NFL teams have been rolled more often than the Bears on runs that net at least 10 yards. The Bears are among the worst defenses in the NFL against first-down runs, allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry. And the defense doesn’t come up with many negative plays that knock opponents back; the Bears have stuffed only 10 running plays this season — the fewest in the NFL. In other words, teams have just slammed away at Chicago’s defensive front with persistent, physical and powerful runs. Gurley is special because of his ability to break a defense with speed or power. He’s a breakaway threat at any moment — but also thrives at grinding away for the tough yards.
2. A Special Invitation for Nick Foles: For the most part the Rams’ quarterback has been a low-impact performer. And while there are many contributing factors to the league’s dullest passing attack, the good quarterbacks manage to find ways to step up and make plays. Foles has absorbed more total hits than any NFL quarterback this season, and the punishment could be wearing on him. But the Bears’ pass defense is an inviting, attractive target. Chicago has been rifled for a 101.1 passer rating this season, sixth-worst among the 32 teams. The Bears have been air-raided for 17 touchdown passes, and have countered with only four interceptions. And this final stat may prove soothing for Foles: the Bears have only 14 sacks this season. That’s 25th. Foles should have time to throw, and the Bears are awfully loose in their pass coverage. This seems like a good opportunity for a Foles’ warm-up.
3. Want To Do Better on Third Down? Here’s How: By now we’re tired of mentioning that the Rams’ third-down conversion rate, an abysmal 23.7 percent, is the poorest by an NFL team since the statistic became official in 1972. But here’s one way to get around that — come up with more positive results on first and second down. The Rams’ inconsistency and weakness in getting to third down is as much of a problem as executing on third down. Here’s a number that tells us a lot: when the Rams break the huddle and line up for second down, they face an average of 8.68 yards to go for a first down. No NFL team has been in a deeper second-down hole than the Rams this season.
Moreover, their second-down performance is lacking. According to STATS LLC the Rams are ranked last in the NFL in successful second-down plays — picking up 50 percent of the yards needed for a first down only 39 percent of the time. Their second-down rushing log is pretty dismal; the Rams have lost yards 11 times and gained no more than 2 yards on half of their 64 runs. The struggles on first and second down create too many highly unfavorable situations on third down. When the Rams need 6+ yards on third down this season, they’ve converted only 8 of 55 — or 14.5%. And when the Rams have to come up with 10+ yards on third down, they’ve failed 31 times out of 36. (A success rate of 14 percent). We spend a lot of time looking at what the Rams are doing wrong on third down. But speaking for myself, I haven’t paid enough attention to their skimpy production on the first two downs.
4. The Rams Defense Must Rest: Quarterback Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offense do a really effective job of extending possessions. Only three NFL offenses have had more possessions than last 10 plays or longer than the Bears’ 19. They’ve also scored seven touchdowns at the end of these sustained marches — a sign that the opposing defense is tiring along the way. (By the way: the Rams’ have had only only three possessions of 10 plays-plus.) The Bears have hogged the football for a minimum of five minutes on 12 possessions. They just keep moving the chains, steadily and efficiently, with a methodical approach that can make a defense impatient or weary. That’s one huge advantage that the Bears bring to this game; unlike the Rams’ offense the Chicago offense is strong at converting third-down and fourth-down plays, ranking sixth in the NFL at 44.6%.
One reason for the Bears’ extended stays is improved pass protection for Cutler. Previously one of the most hounded NFL quarterbacks, Cutler has been sacked on only 3.9 percent of the team’s passing plays this season. That’s No. 6 in the league at preventing sacks, and the extra security has enhanced Cutler’s play. Well, the Rams’ defense will try to chip away at the wall that shields Cutler, something this sack attack does very well. The Rams are among the NFL’s stingiest at limiting the number of extended drives by opponents. The Rams have forced three-and-outs by opponents on 21 percent of their possessions. The Rams’ defense has been taken for a ride on only eight of those five-minute drives. The Rams’ defense has stayed on the field for plays or more only 12 times. And the Rams are stopping opponents on third down at a rate of 66.2 percent that comes in at fifth best in the rankings. The Chicago offense doesn’t want to give up the ball; the Rams defense doesn’t want to stay on the field. Something has to give, right?
5. Superiority on Special Teams: I’ll keep this one short. I’m tired of typing (wink.) Football Outsiders has a formula for rating the overall, all-around performance of the league’s 32 special-teams units. The Rams come in at No. 10 in those rankings. And the Bears are last at No. 32. So the kicking game could swing in the Rams’ favor.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
