1. Edge rusher
Good year to need ... any sort of edge rusher at allBad year to need ... a truly elite dude (unless you'd like to send two first-rounders for Maxx Crosby)
If your favorite team's general manager can't find a good fit at edge rusher this offseason, tell him to take a hike. Putting aside the Crosby trade rumors for now, here's a list of expected free agent edge rushers: Trey Hendrickson (Bengals), Odafe Oweh (Chargers), Jaelan Phillips (Eagles), Khalil Mack (Chargers), K'Lavon Chaisson (Patriots), Boye Mafe (Seahawks), Joey Bosa (Bills) and Jadeveon Clowney (Cowboys).
The main thing that impresses me is the variety. Oweh, Chaisson and Mafe are speed artists who can create pressure fast. Guys such as Mack, Clowney and Kingsley Enagbare (Packers) are all hitters in the running game. Want to gamble on injured, aging veterans? Hendrickson, Bosa, Cameron Jordan (Saints) and Von Miller (Commodes) could all have something left. What about undeveloped traits? Kwity Paye (Colts) and Arnold Ebiketie (Falcons) are your guys. There's something for everyone in this group.
Hendrickson, Oweh and Phillips can all reasonably be projected for 10-plus sacks next season, while Mafe, Chaisson, Mack and Bosa can all be eight-sack players. And that's without any surprises from more middle-tier veterans like Dre'Mont Jones (Ravens) and Al-Quadin Muhammad (Lions).
In the draft, I think it's fair to have eight-plus-sack projections in mind for David Bailey (Texas Tech) and Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami). Bain is a tricky one. Apparently some teams view him as an undersized 3-tech instead of a big base end, but I've watched him win too many outside rushes too quickly to knock him inside just yet. The real wild card is Ohio State's Arvell Reese, an on-ball/off-ball linebacker hybrid whom the league reportedly prefers as an edge rusher. He has a chance to be a high-value player as a movement piece, but those guys don't tend to hit in Year 1.
Auburn's Keldric Faulk was miscast in the Tigers' defense and will benefit from more true edge rusher snaps in the NFL -- he's this year's Mykel Williams, and Williams ended up going 11th. Cashius Howell (Texas A&M) is the Will Campbell of this class (albeit on defense), as his short arm length measurements will end up a limiting factor for many teams. But 11.5 sacks in his final season of highly explosive pass rushing should get him drafted early. And Akheem Mesidor (Miami) is the Tyler Shough of this class. He was highly productive late in his college career ... and I do mean late! He'll be 25 by draft night, and he is older than current NFLers Will Anderson Jr. and Lukas Van Ness. But man, that film is good.
Expect to see at least six edges go in the first round (if we're counting Reese). Seven made it in Field Yates' most recent mock draft, as Missouri's Zion Young joined the party. While there isn't a truly elite rusher like Anderson or Abdul Carter, there are a ton of top-50 options, and some splashy free agents to boot.