Advanced passing stats (dispelling myths)

[Petrowsky]

And big Dick Foles achieved it twice..

View attachment 32367

100 QBR isn’t nothing to measure a QB by.

Nick Foles didn’t do it twice. In 2016 he started one game. That doesn’t really count.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

I don't care who your QB is or what play the Coach calls.

If your Oline sucks your offense will suck.

This is why QB's have fluctuations in stats every year.

No one said Goff had to have a perfect Oline either.

Goff lead the Highest scoring Offense for two years straight, behind a solid but not perfect Oline. Anyone remember Sullivan and Blythe giving up sacks. Me too. They weren't perfect. Havenstein and Whitworth failed at times too. But the whole group was a top 10 group by most measures. And Sullivan and Saffold were strong run blockers.

Goff did this for long stretches. He's done it without Gurley or Kupp or Cooks.

In fact the only Pro Bowlers Goff has had on offense is Whitworth and Gurley.

Saffold, Sullivan, Blythe and Havenstein never made a Pro Bowl while Goff led the league 2 Years straight.

So no, Goff doesn't require a perfect Oline or supporting cast, he has done it without. But he does need a competent Oline and running game, and if you watch the game there is no denying he doesn't have that.

Spot on

Not sure why this seems be so freaking difficult to see?

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

I am. If you look at the stats you’ll see what I mean! He forgot how to do it twice!

Please elaborate sir, you can’t be serious about 101 to 98? Or are you

 

[RamsInfiniti]

Please elaborate sir, you can’t be serious about 101 to 98? Or are you

No, if you look at Peyton's 2nd and 3rd seasons, he was on the ascent. Then, his 4th year, he throws 23 INT, and there were plenty of question marks about him. This happened to many of the current greats.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

No, if you look at Peyton's 2nd and 3rd seasons, he was on the ascent. Then, his 4th year, he throws 23 INT, and there were plenty of question marks about him. This happened to many of the current greats.

Ah year, pretty sure Peyton’s 4th nfl season which at one point inspired the never to be forgotten “PLAYOFFS” rant

He somehow managed to turn out ok though, imagine if they had online fan forums back then how many of the Colts fans would have been clamoring for his head, most here seem to be behind Goff, yet clearly a few feel we should move on

It is what it is

 

[fearsomefour]

Delete this post, the ones that like to come up with every excuse in the world ‘Goff is elite and nothing is his fault’ won’t like it!

Guy is playing like doodoo this year and McVay is not helping his QB with his even worse play calling. It’s been worse us not being able to create a run game for whatever the reasons are ( and there are many) but still even when things are good he still misses key throws or doesn't Feel pressure like somebody of his tenure should by now.

I’m hoping the best for Jared but at this point if I can find a team like Denver, Miami, Washington, Bengals. Or whoever I’m trading him for hopefully 2 firsts. Might be less because of that contract extension.

I know Snead sees this mistake and hope he’ll try and work out something out.

“Work something out”
Such as?
Finding a team to take on a big contract?
Finding a QB with an acquired first round pick?
The likelihood of the first happening is greater than the second.
Close the window to competing for a Super Bowl completely until the mystery rookie QB develops?
Maybe Snead sees a mistake, maybe not.
But he certainly signed off the extension a year ago.
Goff isn’t going anywhere.

 

[1maGoh]

I am. If you look at the stats you’ll see what I mean! He forgot how to do it twice!

So you're either suggesting that it happens to the best of them so early Goff will be ok...

Oooooor the select few QBs you choose are the only QBs (who currently happen to have most of their careers and accomplishments behind them, so we can safely ignore the bad years; yay hindsight) who are allowed to have off years.

I am deeply interested in which one of those you were getting at.

 

[Ellard80]

Ah year, pretty sure Peyton’s 4th nfl season which at one point inspired the never to be forgotten “PLAYOFFS” rant

He somehow managed to turn out ok though, imagine if they had online fan forums back then how many of the Colts fans would have been clamoring for his head, most here seem to be behind Goff, yet clearly a few feel we should move on

It is what it is

I think I've seen a few out of hundreds of posters that say we should move on.... about 98% of posters aren't saying that. Also no one is saying that the oline is good or not part of the problem.

Everything is not Goff's fault, but it's more his fault that a lot of people are acting like - but being on Rams message boards for 20 years I've seen it, a lot. Marc Bulger, Sam Bradford... any time the qb has any talent its always somonne elses fault when they struggle.

 

[Merlin]

So you're either suggesting that it happens to the best of them so early Goff will be ok...

Not to butt in between you two here but this reminds me of looking up the best QBs in history and being surprised how pedestrian or bad some of their early seasons were. You have Marino of course as an outlier but most of them either took a while to start (sat on bench for years in some cases) or played poorly for years.

Reason I still back Goff and assume he will be like those greats: he's got a lot more heart then people realize. He is going to do the work to get to that elite level which is something a lot of QBs do not have in this league (I like to call it "give a F"). And he has the required talent as well as the coaching which is also a huge element in all this.

Ten years from now we'll look back and say this was a character/growth year for our elite QB. I am very confident the Rams will fix the OL this offseason and we'll have a strong and balanced offense once again.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Because in the nfl you have 2-3 seconds to throw on average... I could provide you multiple other sites with the same data.

Ellard, I’m not criticizing you, I’m criticizing the stat itself.

Granted, on AVERAGE, a QB has between 2 and 3 seconds to throw. But we all know that there are many variables affecting whether or not the QB has “enough time” to throw (including the DESIGN of the play), and the “pocket time” stat does not take these variables into account.

According to the “pocket time chart” you provided, the numbers generally seem to range between 2.7 and 2.2. Andy Dalton, in 8 games for the hapless Bengals, was provided only 2.2 seconds to throw, the worst in the league. Yeah, that makes sense. Yet his replacement for 3 games, Ryan Finley, was provided a leisurely (and league-best) 2.7 seconds of “pocket time” to throw.

So are we to believe that the Bengals O-line magically transformed from worst-in-the-league pass protection for Dalton to best-in-the-league pass protection for Finley?

My point is: this is a flawed stat.

The notion that Goff in 2019 has “the second best pass protection in the league” is ludicrous.

 

[bluecoconuts]

What the fuck is the point of this thread? To shit on Goff? The fuck outa here with that bullshit, that’s not what this board is about.

 

[Corbin]

Nick Foles didn’t do it twice. In 2016 he started one game. That doesn’t really count.

But as per the point that was quoted, "does a QB get over a 100 QB rating and forget how to do it?"

Please elaborate sir, you can’t be serious about 101 to 98? Or are you

Hey, I'm going by the set on this point, you take it up with the guy who i quoted!

Goff isn’t going anywhere.

That's what people said about Peters and Talib, we shall see.

So you're either suggesting that it happens to the best of them so early Goff will be ok...

Oooooor the select few QBs you choose are the only QBs (who currently happen to have most of their careers and accomplishments behind them, so we can safely ignore the bad years; yay hindsight) who are allowed to have off years.

I am deeply interested in which one of those you were getting at.

I'm not comparing either one of those. Look at original quote and you might get it!

 

[fearsomefour]

But as per the point that was quoted, "does a QB get over a 100 QB rating and forget how to do it?"


Hey, I'm going by the set on this point, you take it up with the guy who i quoted!


That's what people said about Peters and Talib, we shall see.



I'm not comparing either one of those. Look at original quote and you might get it!

Different with Peters and Talib.
They had an upgrade for Peters and Talib was injured and being replaced by Hill.
There is no plan to find a long term starting QB.
Replacing a CB as opposed to a QB....perfect example of apples and oranges.

 

[1maGoh]

But as per the point that was quoted, "does a QB get over a 100 QB rating and forget how to do it?"


Hey, I'm going by the set on this point, you take it up with the guy who i quoted!


That's what people said about Peters and Talib, we shall see.



I'm not comparing either one of those. Look at original quote and you might get it!

My understanding of what the original post said isn't the issue here. Dude said a good QB doesn't just forget how to throw and be accurate. Then he named of some external (to the QB) circumstances that aren't the QB, citing those as reasons that a QB might go from having over a 100 passer rating to less than that.

You then showed stats from one of the greatest QBs in history, and two who lucked themselves into super bowl wins (it took talent on their part, but it's not like they were the driving force behind the wins; they were total team efforts). What you showed only potentially reinforces that the circumstances around a QB can cause fluctuations in that QB's performance.

I say potentially because you didn't actually address the circumstances around those QBs. Only the stats of the QB. It's impossible to say that some external force did not inhibit either Manning from performing better in those dip seasons, because your stat only looks at the QB.

I'm not entirely sure what you thought you were refuting, but it was ineffective. You showed that QBs, even the best, can go from over 100 to under 100 and back up over 100 again. You didn't address why, which was the central reason for the post you had quoted when showing those stats about passer rating.

Did Peyton Manning suddenly forget how to be a QB and then remember the next season? I find that highly unlikely, but I'm open to the idea of anyone has evidence either way. Showing that it's happened at all before doesn't address why it's happened before.

Even if you're saying it is possible for the best QB to forget how to play football (instead of external circumstances affecting him) and then remember again, isn't that all the more reason to stick with Goff?

 

[Ramlock]

Different with Peters and Talib.
They had an upgrade for Peters and Talib was injured and being replaced by Hill.
There is no plan to find a long term starting QB.
Replacing a CB as opposed to a QB....perfect example of apples and oranges.

yeah, I never thought Peters would be re-signed and Talib is getting long in the tooth

 

[Corbin]

Different with Peters and Talib.
They had an upgrade for Peters and Talib was injured and being replaced by Hill.
There is no plan to find a long term starting QB.
Replacing a CB as opposed to a QB....perfect example of apples and oranges.

Yeah but your looking at this with hindsight not a month and a half ago aren't you?

My understanding of what the original post said isn't the issue here. Dude said a good QB doesn't just forget how to throw and be accurate. Then he named of some external (to the QB) circumstances that aren't the QB, citing those as reasons that a QB might go from having over a 100 passer rating to less than that.

You then showed stats from one of the greatest QBs in history, and two who lucked themselves into super bowl wins (it took talent on their part, but it's not like they were the driving force behind the wins; they were total team efforts). What you showed only potentially reinforces that the circumstances around a QB can cause fluctuations in that QB's performance.

I say potentially because you didn't actually address the circumstances around those QBs. Only the stats of the QB. It's impossible to say that some external force did not inhibit either Manning from performing better in those dip seasons, because your stat only looks at the QB.

I'm not entirely sure what you thought you were refuting, but it was ineffective. You showed that QBs, even the best, can go from over 100 to under 100 and back up over 100 again. You didn't address why, which was the central reason for the post you had quoted when showing those stats about passer rating.

Did Peyton Manning suddenly forget how to be a QB and then remember the next season? I find that highly unlikely, but I'm open to the idea of anyone has evidence either way. Showing that it's happened at all before doesn't address why it's happened before.

Even if you're saying it is possible for the best QB to forget how to play football (instead of external circumstances affecting him) and then remember again, isn't that all the more reason to stick with Goff?

Fuck me... I'll reply to your long response tomorrow or sometime man!

 

[kurtfaulk]

I think I've seen a few out of hundreds of posters that say we should move on.... about 98% of posters aren't saying that. Also no one is saying that the oline is good or not part of the problem.

Everything is not Goff's fault, but it's more his fault that a lot of people are acting like - but being on Rams message boards for 20 years I've seen it, a lot. Marc Bulger, Sam Bradford... any time the qb has any talent its always somonne elses fault when they struggle.

Who said Goff has been perfect and everything else has been bad? Everyone has said Goff hasn't played well. But we realise the oline has messed up his internal clock with their sieve like protection so even when he does get time his timing is way off in the games where he's under the pump pretty much all game.

The games where they've given him decent protection he suddenly looks much better. It's a mystery. Not.

.

 

[TexasRam]

Advanced Stats:

RAMS 2018 Passing: 281 ypg 5th in the NFL
Rams 2019 Passing 275 ypg 5th in the NFL

RAMS 2018 Rushing: 139 ypg 3rd in the NFL
Rams 2019 Rushing 94 ypg 25th in the NFL

Let's play a game called "what has changed?"

Clearly Goff's mechanics are off and his new girlfriend is affecting his play. The way he is handing the ball off is really resulting in a huge dropoff for our RB's.

 

[fearsomefour]

Yeah but your looking at this with hindsight not a month and a half ago aren't you?



Fuck me... I'll reply to your long response tomorrow or sometime man!

What I am saying is the Peters/Talib moves make sense.
Moving Goff makes no sense.

 

[fearsomefour]

Advanced Stats:

RAMS 2018 Passing: 281 ypg 5th in the NFL
Rams 2019 Passing 275 ypg 5th in the NFL

RAMS 2018 Rushing: 139 ypg 3rd in the NFL
Rams 2019 Rushing 94 ypg 25th in the NFL

Let's play a game called "what has changed?"

Clearly Goff's mechanics are off and his new girlfriend is affecting his play. The way he is handing the ball off is really resulting in a huge dropoff for our RB's.

There is the rumor he is a drunk.