Advanced passing stats (dispelling myths)

[Ellard80]

A lot of this board is blaming the lack of passing on the Oline- but they have been pretty good for awhile now (in pass pro). Here are some metrics in reference to some of the false statements that seem to have become factual with so many people.

1. Goff gets sacked a lot - Out of all the quarterbacks that have started all 11 games Goff is sacked the 3rd least in the NFL.
2. Well duh, sacks don't tell the entire story he is hurried a lot - out of all the qbs that have started all 11 games he is tied for the 7th fewest hurries.
3. He just doesn't have time with the bad oline out of all qbs in the nfl he is tied for the 2nd most time in the pocket to throw.
4. But Goff gets sacked few times because he throws it away a lot - out of all 11 game starting quarterback he has the least throw-aways in the NFL.
5. Well Goff is accurate and can make all the throws Goff has the worst on target % in the nfl of all starting quarterbacks.
6. McVay has him trying to throw long routes and needs to get it out quicker - out of 19 qbs that have played every gamehe ranks 11th in avg distance per target.

2019 NFL Advanced Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2019 NFL Advanced Passing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

I still have hope for Goff and have seen him get it done in the past - even be great at times. Before the last few weeks I was more on board that he was not the #1 reason the offense is struggling. I don't think the O-line is good, but when I looked at the numbers and then was going back and watching some old games.
Goff is more to blame than I originally thought.

That being said, we have some easier defenses to go against (and still one really good one) so hopefully he can start slinging it around again and get his mojo back, because right now he isn't seeing the field and playing with confidence.

 

[Ramlock]

I still have hope for Goff and have seen him get it done in the past - even be great at times. Before the last few weeks I was more on board that he was not the #1 reason the offense is struggling. I don't think the O-line is good, but when I looked at the numbers and then was going back and watching some old games.
Goff is more to blame than I originally thought.

I can live with that. For now, as I’ll explain.

I knew he wasn’t taking a lot of sacks, the time to throw thing, he holds it a bit longer than I’d like...he doesn’t throw many away and I wish that he would when it would prevent a strip fumble.
He seems just a bit late with the throws.
It’s a complex, nuanced thing.

The line is not great. Run game is not equal to 17-18.
I’m not crazy about some play calls.
Goff has a piece of all that. McVay owns some.

My personal theory is that they should run more two-minute out of shotgun if they’re going to sling it....no one seems to bite on play action, why do it?

I like Goff. I think he’s still developing.

I disagree with those that think that this is Goff and he is what he is, so write him off...he won’t get better and he’s been “figured out”.

I expect him to take another step up.

 

[RamsInfiniti]

A lot of this board is blaming the lack of passing on the Oline- but they have been pretty good for awhile now (in pass pro). Here are some metrics in reference to some of the false statements that seem to have become factual with so many people.

1. Goff gets sacked a lot - Out of all the quarterbacks that have started all 11 games Goff is sacked the 3rd least in the NFL.
2. Well duh, sacks don't tell the entire story he is hurried a lot - out of all the qbs that have started all 11 games he is tied for the 7th fewest hurries.
3. He just doesn't have time with the bad oline out of all qbs in the nfl he is tied for the 2nd most time in the pocket to throw.
4. But Goff gets sacked few times because he throws it away a lot - out of all 11 game starting quarterback he has the least throw-aways in the NFL.
5. Well Goff is accurate and can make all the throws Goff has the worst on target % in the nfl of all starting quarterbacks.
6. McVay has him trying to throw long routes and needs to get it out quicker - out of 19 qbs that have played every gamehe ranks 11th in avg distance per target.

2019 NFL Advanced Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2019 NFL Advanced Passing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

I still have hope for Goff and have seen him get it done in the past - even be great at times. Before the last few weeks I was more on board that he was not the #1 reason the offense is struggling. I don't think the O-line is good, but when I looked at the numbers and then was going back and watching some old games.
Goff is more to blame than I originally thought.

That being said, we have some easier defenses to go against (and still one really good one) so hopefully he can start slinging it around again and get his mojo back, because right now he isn't seeing the field and playing with confidence.

Being screaming this forever, but I feel like McVay is more to blame than Goff. If you study the all-22, you will see a passing game that today, looks the same it did in 2017. Problem is, defenses have adjusted and are cutting off the intermediate and deep passing game. McVay has not adapted, at least consistently, to create an underneath passing game.

 

[1maGoh]

Now that you say he hasn't been throwing it away much, it does feel like he throws it away less this year than last year and the year before. I don't think I have personally commented on that before, so I don't think I'm changing my mind on this.

I believe the last two years he used to escape to the sides and throw the ball away more than I remember seeing him do this year. Is he trying to be tough and hang in the pocket to save the day? It's not working.

In other news, I wonder how meaningful it is to only include QBs that have started every game. I mean, are the other guys not supposed to play on the NFL? They get paid too right? And what about guys like Minshew that didn't start the year but are doing well? They may make Goff look worse or still be below him. We won't know if the rankings are only those with all the starts.

 

[Corbin]

A lot of this board is blaming the lack of passing on the Oline- but they have been pretty good for awhile now (in pass pro). Here are some metrics in reference to some of the false statements that seem to have become factual with so many people.

1. Goff gets sacked a lot - Out of all the quarterbacks that have started all 11 games Goff is sacked the 3rd least in the NFL.
2. Well duh, sacks don't tell the entire story he is hurried a lot - out of all the qbs that have started all 11 games he is tied for the 7th fewest hurries.
3. He just doesn't have time with the bad oline out of all qbs in the nfl he is tied for the 2nd most time in the pocket to throw.
4. But Goff gets sacked few times because he throws it away a lot - out of all 11 game starting quarterback he has the least throw-aways in the NFL.
5. Well Goff is accurate and can make all the throws Goff has the worst on target % in the nfl of all starting quarterbacks.
6. McVay has him trying to throw long routes and needs to get it out quicker - out of 19 qbs that have played every gamehe ranks 11th in avg distance per target.

2019 NFL Advanced Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2019 NFL Advanced Passing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

I still have hope for Goff and have seen him get it done in the past - even be great at times. Before the last few weeks I was more on board that he was not the #1 reason the offense is struggling. I don't think the O-line is good, but when I looked at the numbers and then was going back and watching some old games.
Goff is more to blame than I originally thought.

That being said, we have some easier defenses to go against (and still one really good one) so hopefully he can start slinging it around again and get his mojo back, because right now he isn't seeing the field and playing with confidence.

Delete this post, the ones that like to come up with every excuse in the world ‘Goff is elite and nothing is his fault’ won’t like it!

Guy is playing like doodoo this year and McVay is not helping his QB with his even worse play calling. It’s been worse us not being able to create a run game for whatever the reasons are ( and there are many) but still even when things are good he still misses key throws or doesn't Feel pressure like somebody of his tenure should by now.

I’m hoping the best for Jared but at this point if I can find a team like Denver, Miami, Washington, Bengals. Or whoever I’m trading him for hopefully 2 firsts. Might be less because of that contract extension.

I know Snead sees this mistake and hope he’ll try and work out something out.

 

[TexasRam]

Stats, Shats.

A QB doesn't go from two straight 100 QB rating, top offense in the NFL to forgetting how to throw a football or suddenly becoming inaccurate.

Watch the dang games. We CANNOT run the football. Noteboom, Allen and Blythe could not move people. Whitworth is declining and Havenstein is currently hurt.

We are playing 3 first year players, Blythe and a declining Whitworth.

I looked at 3 NFL sites today and all had the Rams O-line in the bottom 5 in the NFL. Advanced stats that look at the run blocking as well.

If we cannot run our play action pass when the run isn't drawing defenders up.

It's not a hard concept to follow especially when you watch the actual games.

 

[Malibu]

One stay you conveniently forget and that the oline is ranked 31st in the league vs last year ranked #2.

Like one poster said he doesn't go from having 2 amazing years and suddenly he sucks your just 100% wrong! Just common sense.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Stats, Shats.

A QB doesn't go from two straight 100 QB rating, top offense in the NFL to forgetting how to throw a football or suddenly becoming inaccurate.

Watch the dang games. We CANNOT run the football. Noteboom, Allen and Blythe could not move people. Whitworth is declining and Havenstein is currently hurt.

We are playing 3 first year players, Blythe and a declining Whitworth.

I looked at 3 NFL sites today and all had the Rams O-line in the bottom 5 in the NFL. Advanced stats that look at the run blocking as well.

If we cannot run our play action pass when the run isn't drawing defenders up.

It's not a hard concept to follow especially when you watch the actual games.

That part is on McVay. He needs to change the offense to suit the condition the team is in. I hope he starts studying some football offenses in the off season.

But when a QB is reliant on everything being right, it's a bad situation. It's difficult to keep an NFL team right every year. The really good QBs like Wilson and Rogers can still look good even when their team is not great. Goff, not so much.

 

[XXXIVwin]

A lot of this board is blaming the lack of passing on the Oline- but they have been pretty good for awhile now (in pass pro). Here are some metrics in reference to some of the false statements that seem to have become factual with so many people.

1. Goff gets sacked a lot - Out of all the quarterbacks that have started all 11 games Goff is sacked the 3rd least in the NFL.
2. Well duh, sacks don't tell the entire story he is hurried a lot - out of all the qbs that have started all 11 games he is tied for the 7th fewest hurries.
3. He just doesn't have time with the bad oline out of all qbs in the nfl he is tied for the 2nd most time in the pocket to throw.
4. But Goff gets sacked few times because he throws it away a lot - out of all 11 game starting quarterback he has the least throw-aways in the NFL.
5. Well Goff is accurate and can make all the throws Goff has the worst on target % in the nfl of all starting quarterbacks.
6. McVay has him trying to throw long routes and needs to get it out quicker - out of 19 qbs that have played every gamehe ranks 11th in avg distance per target.

2019 NFL Advanced Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2019 NFL Advanced Passing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

I still have hope for Goff and have seen him get it done in the past - even be great at times. Before the last few weeks I was more on board that he was not the #1 reason the offense is struggling. I don't think the O-line is good, but when I looked at the numbers and then was going back and watching some old games.
Goff is more to blame than I originally thought.

That being said, we have some easier defenses to go against (and still one really good one) so hopefully he can start slinging it around again and get his mojo back, because right now he isn't seeing the field and playing with confidence.

Ellard, your post makes me think of the phrase, “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Seems like you cherry-picked a bit.

Granted, Goff’s accuracy has been very poor this year.

But regarding point #3– that Goff has “the second longest time to throw in the entire league”— smells awful fishy. I call BS on that one. I’d be curious how that one is calculated. Is it a measure of the average amount of time from snap to release? If so, that (IMHO) is not a very accurate gauge.

That stat just doesn’t pass the eyeball test. Goff has had several games this year where the Oline has been a sieve, and Goff is running for his life. So many times this year he drops back and I think “jailbreak, he’s gonna get smeared.”

I’d be curious how some of these stats are calculated, because the eyeball test tells me that Goff’s pass protection in 2019 is much worse than it was in 2018. Last year I’d think frequently, “he’s got all day to throw.” This year I think frequently, “he’s barely got time to duck.”

 

[Corbin]

Stats, Shats.

A QB doesn't go from two straight 100 QB rating, top offense in the NFL to forgetting how to throw a football or suddenly becoming inaccurate.

Peyton Manning says hi

Ohhh ps his brother has 2 SB rings and never achieved 100+ rating.. .

And big Dick Foles achieved it twice..

100 QBR isn’t nothing to measure a QB by.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Ellard, your post makes me think of the phrase, “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Seems like you cherry-picked a bit.

Granted, Goff’s accuracy has been very poor this year.

But regarding point #3– that Goff has “the second longest time to throw in the entire league”— smells awful fishy. I call BS on that one. I’d be curious how that one is calculated. Is it a measure of the average amount of time from snap to release? If so, that (IMHO) is not a very accurate gauge.

That stat just doesn’t pass the eyeball test. Goff has had several games this year where the Oline has been a sieve, and Goff is running for his life. So many times this year he drops back and I think “jailbreak, he’s gonna get smeared.”

I’d be curious how some of these stats are calculated, because the eyeball test tells me that Goff’s pass protection in 2019 is much worse than it was in 2018. Last year I’d think frequently, “he’s got all day to throw.” This year I think frequently, “he’s barely got time to duck.”

Correct.

I couldn't give a fuck about stats.

Stats don't show what my eyes see.

.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Peyton Manning says hi View attachment 32365
Ohhh ps his brother has 2 SB rings and never achieved 100+ rating.. .

Haha, so you're using a qb in his 17th year to prove a point?

.

 

[Corbin]

Haha, so you're using a qb in his 17th year to prove a point?

.

I am. If you look at the stats you’ll see what I mean! He forgot how to do it twice!

 

[Merlin]

Goff is not an off schedule QB. He's a pocket QB who requires protections and he's been unsettled all season for many reasons. Exploring those reasons would require a goddamn book too tbh but I can tell you that this offensive line has been a huge part of that equation.

Also I'll say this... If a 25 year old QB who led us to the Super Bowl last season isn't good enough for you, well, I think you might want to consider rooting for a team with a QB who has gone through all the trials that are required to emerge as an elite signal caller. And I'm not being facetious here either. Because that's what's happening to him in real time right now.

We don't have a choice other than hoping he gets through it by continuing to get better. Rams have invested in him. Now get the pieces set around him.

I'll close by saying that in leadership the worst type of person to work for is someone who doubts his people. Who is too afraid to empower them and support them and train them to get to the next level. There are some fans in electronic Ramsdom who are those types of personalities IMO and I'm just thankful once again that we have McVay in charge because he's what you want running the show. He won't bail out on his young QB, he will help him get through it.

 

[TexasRam]

I don't care who your QB is or what play the Coach calls.

If your Oline sucks your offense will suck.

This is why QB's have fluctuations in stats every year.

No one said Goff had to have a perfect Oline either.

Goff lead the Highest scoring Offense for two years straight, behind a solid but not perfect Oline. Anyone remember Sullivan and Blythe giving up sacks. Me too. They weren't perfect. Havenstein and Whitworth failed at times too. But the whole group was a top 10 group by most measures. And Sullivan and Saffold were strong run blockers.

Goff did this for long stretches. He's done it without Gurley or Kupp or Cooks.

In fact the only Pro Bowlers Goff has had on offense is Whitworth and Gurley.

Saffold, Sullivan, Blythe and Havenstein never made a Pro Bowl while Goff led the league 2 Years straight.

So no, Goff doesn't require a perfect Oline or supporting cast, he has done it without. But he does need a competent Oline and running game, and if you watch the game there is no denying he doesn't have that.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Goff is not an off schedule QB. He's a pocket QB who requires protections and he's been unsettled all season for many reasons. Exploring those reasons would require a goddamn book too tbh but I can tell you that this offensive line has been a huge part of that equation.

it can't be said better than this.

.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Goff lead the Highest scoring Offense for two years straight, behind a solid but not perfect Oline.

that wasn't goff, that was mcvay.

the rookie year was all goff and this year is all goff.

the media and half the people here say it's so, so it must be right.

.

 

[Ellard80]

Stats, Shats.

A QB doesn't go from two straight 100 QB rating, top offense in the NFL to forgetting how to throw a football or suddenly becoming inaccurate.

Watch the dang games. We CANNOT run the football. Noteboom, Allen and Blythe could not move people. Whitworth is declining and Havenstein is currently hurt.

We are playing 3 first year players, Blythe and a declining Whitworth.

I looked at 3 NFL sites today and all had the Rams O-line in the bottom 5 in the NFL. Advanced stats that look at the run blocking as well.

If we cannot run our play action pass when the run isn't drawing defenders up.

It's not a hard concept to follow especially when you watch the actual games.

I actually went back and watched the games. This is also why I provided stats - because peoples eyes and perceptions are wrong as often as they are right. I also never said the 0-line was good, in fact I've said it wasn't many times.

Sometimes yes the defenders aren't being drawn up... in the 49ners game for example, there were just a small handful of times where I could see from what I had that somoene was open.

However there are also a lot of times when people are open that a poor throw is the result - and the stats back that up.

 

[Ellard80]

[

Correct.

I couldn't give a fuck about stats.

Stats don't show what my eyes see.

.

lazix surgery maybe?

 

[Ellard80]

Goff is not an off schedule QB. He's a pocket QB who requires protections and he's been unsettled all season for many reasons. Exploring those reasons would require a goddamn book too tbh but I can tell you that this offensive line has been a huge part of that equation.

Also I'll say this... If a 25 year old QB who led us to the Super Bowl last season isn't good enough for you, well, I think you might want to consider rooting for a team with a QB who has gone through all the trials that are required to emerge as an elite signal caller. And I'm not being facetious here either. Because that's what's happening to him in real time right now.

We don't have a choice other than hoping he gets through it by continuing to get better. Rams have invested in him. Now get the pieces set around him.

I'll close by saying that in leadership the worst type of person to work for is someone who doubts his people. Who is too afraid to empower them and support them and train them to get to the next level. There are some fans in electronic Ramsdom who are those types of personalities IMO and I'm just thankful once again that we have McVay in charge because he's what you want running the show. He won't bail out on his young QB, he will help him get through it.

He has no choice but to help him through it. I've also probably said 50 times that I haven't given up hope with Goff.

Ellard, your post makes me think of the phrase, “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Seems like you cherry-picked a bit.

Granted, Goff’s accuracy has been very poor this year.

But regarding point #3– that Goff has “the second longest time to throw in the entire league”— smells awful fishy. I call BS on that one. I’d be curious how that one is calculated. Is it a measure of the average amount of time from snap to release? If so, that (IMHO) is not a very accurate gauge.

That stat just doesn’t pass the eyeball test. Goff has had several games this year where the Oline has been a sieve, and Goff is running for his life. So many times this year he drops back and I think “jailbreak, he’s gonna get smeared.”

I’d be curious how some of these stats are calculated, because the eyeball test tells me that Goff’s pass protection in 2019 is much worse than it was in 2018. Last year I’d think frequently, “he’s got all day to throw.” This year I think frequently, “he’s barely got time to duck.”

Because in the nfl you have 2-3 seconds to throw on average... I could provide you multiple other sites with the same data.