A Tale of Three Gashes; The Los Angeles Rams Run Defense

[Merlin]

Yeah I detest cherry picking with stats. That "well if you remove this run or that run they're only giving up X.X yards which is really good" stuff is BS. Teams that are great vs the run are where they are statistically because they limit the gashes. This is what Minnesota has done all year.

Our defense hasn't, particularly earlier this season. So in lining the teams up statistically it needs to be looked at honestly. I guarantee you the biggest concern in the Rams defensive meetings is the Vikes rolling on the ground. Because then their backup QB gets favorable down/distance and play action to feast with. Anyone who has watched the Vikings' offense is concerned with that run game and the surge they get from their OL.

But all that aside yes the Rams do a very good job of situational defense under Wade. It's a different defense now, a smarter defense that is more capable of limiting points through turnovers and quick adjustments. So if the Vikings think they're going to be able to bully that ball up the middle, if that's their gameplan, they might be in for a surprise. Of course that's probably not the case, as we know the Vikes' brain trust has watched the Rams games and know they're facing a good defense, so it won't be a surprise.

The Vikes' only defensive weakness is they tend to give up more yards in the air than a great defense should. Part of that is due to how good their run D is, but also they are not a perfect unit thus far. And that matchup for us is key in this game, might even end up being the biggest element in whether we win this game: the Goff vs their secondary matchup.

This is a huge game for the kid QB. Cannot stress that enough. We won't win this game if he doesn't play well.

 

[Prime Time]

Here's the thing, if Case starts playing poorly, they can always yank him an let Teddy play. Going to happen sooner or later.

I would have preferred to face Sam Bradford in this game. That would have been awesome, but alas.

My prediction is that Case Keenum and your running backs will do well in the first half and then steadily deteriorate in the second half. That has been the norm so far this season for opponents who face the Rams defense.

If the Vikings are up by two scores at the end of the first half, that will be a serious problem for us. But if we're ahead or close after the first half, then...

Thanks for joining us here this week, @Raptorman, and being a good sport about it.

 

[Farr Be It]

Actually, if Bradford wasn't hurt, there would be. Had Bradford not hurt his knee, Keenum would be number 3. The only reason for him not being there is that he had surgery the week Bridgewater came back.

Still, were would the Rams be with their Number 2 QB and Gurley out?

Again, I acknowledged the point that you have very key injuries at QB and RB and your replacements have done well. The Vikings have a great roster. They are well-coached. I really like Keenum, too. I am rooting for his success generally.

But, again. Now that you have dug in. I will restate. He is your backup. Not your third string. Kyle Sloter is third string. You’d be screwed if Sloter had to play, right?

I don’t know how well the Rams would be doing with Sean Mannion and Malcom Brown/Lance Dunbar. I’m glad we’ve been blessed with overall good team health to date.

So if you want to keep saying Keenum is your 3rd string, talk to me about why the Vikings invested a first rounder for Bridgewater and all that trade stock with Philly for Bradford for a “backup” quarterback.

 

[LesBaker]

The good news is the Vikings are only averaging 3.9 yards per carry for 20th position in the league.

Actually when you subtract Cook's production and just look at the two guys available it's worse than that. Essentially just under 20 carries per game for essentially 71 yards.

Thats 3.55 YPC and they haven't played the Rams D yet. I suspect it'll be lower come Sunday late afternoon.

 

[bubbaramfan]

:blah::blah::blah: play the game already............:rant:

 

[Farr Be It]

I should do this for passing yards as well. Tell me, is it limited to 3 or can I use 5?

Five? You can’t do five! :rant:That would be a blatant disregard for existing rules, regulations and bylaws!

Okay, let's take the Rams 3 highest scoring games out of the equation and they end up with a 26.3 points a game scoring offense.

So you are going to equate 3- :07 second plays with 3- 60:00 minute games? Even at that our scoring is still pretty good, huh Raptor?

Nope... the logic and analysis has been patented by @Farr Be It

correct.

 

[Ram65]

Actually when you subtract Cook's production and just look at the two guys available it's worse than that. Essentially just under 20 carries per game for essentially 71 yards.

That's 3.55 YPC and they haven't played the Rams D yet. I suspect it'll be lower come Sunday late afternoon.

Keen observation Les. I hadn't thought of that. Cook had 4.8 YPC on 74 attempts for 354 yards of their 1062 total yards. McKinnon and Murray are low averages.

 

[Raptorman]

Take injuries away then.. if no injuries here, Gurley way way better than Cook, Goff way way better than Bradford. You'll argue the latter I'm sure but the proof is in the stats Bradford has always been a check down short yardage junkie with a floppy shoulder and glass like bones. Goff is the exact opposite. Goff is a top 5 QB in YPA and 3rd down conversions. With the 2 other elite pass D's under his belt both of which he beat (I count Seahags as a W for Goff bc a dropped perfect pass in stride in endzone would've won - refuse to put that on Goff).

Ah yes, the check down short yardage myth. Here's little something I did on that a couple of year ago. Now, the first group is from prior to 2016, but their numbers really haven't changed. Bradfords is since he left the Rams and Goffs is his total to date. These are percentages of pass attempts that traveled the distance specified, through the air. NOT YAC. Now, keep one thing in mind. 4 percentage points means about 20 pass attempts during the year roughly 1.5 a game. The NFL QB average is about 69% BLOS to 10 yards, 28% 11-30 yards and 3% over 31 yards. And yes, while it looks like Bradford was checking down more than others, one has to remember that last year he had zero time to throw the ball behind a makeshift O-line.

               BLOS-10yards       11-30 yards           31-40 yards
Brady              73.6              23.5                 2.9
Rivers             71.5              25.1                 3.4
Bridgewater        69.9              26.6                 3.5
Brees              68.8              27.3                 3.9
Wilson             68.0              27.0                 5.0
Rodgers            66.4              30.0                 3.6
Carr               65.1              31.5                 3.4
Palmer             55.4              37.4                 7.2

Bradford           74.0              23.5                 2.5
Goff               69.1              27.7                 3.2

 

[Raptorman]

Again, I acknowledged the point that you have very key injuries at QB and RB and your replacements have done well. The Vikings have a great roster. They are well-coached. I really like Keenum, too. I am rooting for his success generally.

But, again. Now that you have dug in. I will restate. He is your backup. Not your third string. Kyle Sloter is third string. You’d be screwed if Sloter had to play, right?

I don’t know how well the Rams would be doing with Sean Mannion and Malcom Brown/Lance Dunbar. I’m glad we’ve been blessed with overall good team health to date.

So if you want to keep saying Keenum is your 3rd string, talk to me about why the Vikings invested a first rounder for Bridgewater and all that trade stock with Philly for Bradford for a “backup” quarterback.

Not sure about that. IF he had a week to practice with the first team he would probably do okay. Kid is good. That's why he is on the 53 not the practice squad.

 

[James Otto]

Ah yes, the check down short yardage myth. Here's little something I did on that a couple of year ago. Now, the first group is from prior to 2016, but their numbers really haven't changed. Bradfords is since he left the Rams and Goffs is his total to date. These are percentages of pass attempts that traveled the distance specified, through the air. NOT YAC. Now, keep one thing in mind. 4 percentage points means about 20 pass attempts during the year roughly 1.5 a game. The NFL QB average is about 69% BLOS to 10 yards, 28% 11-30 yards and 3% over 31 yards. And yes, while it looks like Bradford was checking down more than others, one has to remember that last year he had zero time to throw the ball behind a makeshift O-line.

               BLOS-10yards       11-30 yards           31-40 yards
Brady              73.6              23.5                 2.9
Rivers             71.5              25.1                 3.4
Bridgewater        69.9              26.6                 3.5
Brees              68.8              27.3                 3.9
Wilson             68.0              27.0                 5.0
Rodgers            66.4              30.0                 3.6
Carr               65.1              31.5                 3.4
Palmer             55.4              37.4                 7.2

Bradford           74.0              23.5                 2.5
Goff               69.1              27.7                 3.2

This breakdown by yards, means nothing.

Goff leads the NFL In YPA and YPC. His completion percentage of 61.2% is good for only 26th in the league, yet he still leads the league in YPA? What does that tell you?

 

[Ellard80]

Great write up dude.

I think you have some good analysis.. however it doesn't change my concern with the run defense much.

I think we have improved for sure.. but it's still the weakest area of our defense.

 

[1maGoh]

The Rams have only given up 6 more rushing first downs than the Vikings, and almost 20 less passing first downs.

So, it's not like team's are able to consistently run on us. Just every once in a while. And you know, how much did it help Jacksonville and Dallas?

 

[Ramhusker]

All I can say, all stats aside, if you plan on rushing against the Rams, get it done in the 1st qtr. The RAMS Rush D gets pretty stingy after that. One of you stats gurus prove that for me please.

 

[RhodyRams]

Take 3 only. Okay, let's take the Rams 3 highest scoring games out of the equation and they end up with a 26.3 points a game scoring offense. Pretty good. But I'm sure he Colts, Niners and Giants defense's are top notch. After all they are giving up an average of (in order) 28, 26.4 and 26 points per games.

Of the top 15 teams in defense for points the Rams have played 2 of those teams winning 1 of two. The Vikings have played 4, winning 3. Now, don't get me wrong this is going to be a tough game for both teams. Both will be tested. Below is the list of the bottom 10 teams in scoring defense. Rams have played 6, the Vikings have played 2. I would expect you team to have scored more points than the Vikings. If they hadn't, you guys would have a big problem on your hands.

23 Arizona Cardinals 24.8
24 Miami Dolphins 24.9
25 Tennessee Titans 25.3
26 Washington Redskins 25.8
27 San Francisco 49ers 26
28 New York Giants 26.4
29 Denver Broncos 26.6
30 Cleveland Browns 26.7
31 Houston Texans 26.8
32 Indianapolis Colts 28

Maybe just maybe those teams are in the bottom 10 because the Rams put up 30+?

 

[Farr Be It]

All I can say, all stats aside, if you plan on rushing against the Rams, get it done in the 1st qtr. The RAMS Rush D gets pretty stingy after that. One of you stats gurus prove that for me please.

Maybe just maybe those teams are in the bottom 10 because the Rams put up 30+?

I don't have time to look it up now, but one stat struck me, in my research for this post. The Rams scoring Ranking by quarter:

Quarter Scoring Ranking
1st..............3rd in league
2nd.............2nd in league
3rd..............1st in league
4th..............25th in league!!

Now, obviously, the rams are #1 overall in scoring, and have held that position most (all?) of the year. But interesting how the fourth quarter we are so low. Theory: we have so many points by that time, McVay has pity and takes his foot off the pedal.

 

[1maGoh]

I don't have time to look it up now, but one stat struck me, in my research for this post. The Rams scoring Ranking by quarter:

Quarter Scoring Ranking
1st..............3rd in league
2nd.............2nd in league
3rd..............1st in league
4th..............25th in league!!

Now, obviously, the rams are #1 overall in scoring, and have held that position most (all?) of the year. But interesting how the fourth quarter we are so low. Theory: we have so many points by that time, McVay has pity and takes his foot off the pedal.

Considering that there's been about 4 games where we let the beer vendors play the whole 4th quarter, is say that's accurate.

 

[Riverumbbq]

I don't have time to look it up now, but one stat struck me, in my research for this post. The Rams scoring Ranking by quarter:

Quarter Scoring Ranking
1st..............3rd in league
2nd.............2nd in league
3rd..............1st in league
4th..............25th in league!!

Now, obviously, the rams are #1 overall in scoring, and have held that position most (all?) of the year. But interesting how the fourth quarter we are so low. Theory: we have so many points by that time, McVay has pity and takes his foot off the pedal.

I'll venture that this is due to holding 4'th quarter leads and relying on our run game to eat up as much clock as possible, it's more game management than lack of trying to add points, as McVay is more about ending the game with a W than running up the score.

 

[Raptorman]

This breakdown by yards, means nothing.

Goff leads the NFL In YPA and YPC. His completion percentage of 61.2% is good for only 26th in the league, yet he still leads the league in YPA? What does that tell you?

That's not a breakdown by yards. That's a breakdown on where they threw the ball in relation to the line of scrimmage. Percentage of passes thrown from BLOS out to 10 yards. In other words, 3.2% of all Goffs pass attempts went for more than 31 yards in the air. 27.7% of his pass attempts went from 11-30 yards in the air. Got it?

 

[1maGoh]

That's not a breakdown by yards. That's a breakdown on where they threw the ball in relation to the line of scrimmage. Percentage of passes thrown from BLOS out to 10 yards. In other words, 3.2% of all Goffs pass attempts went for more than 31 yards in the air. 27.7% of his pass attempts went from 11-30 yards in the air. Got it?

So 74% of Bradford's passes went less than 10 yards in the air, right? And in comparison to the other qb's on the list, that's high right? So this proves he isn't dinking and dunking how?

 

[Raptorman]

So 74% of Bradford's passes went less than 10 yards in the air, right? And in comparison to the other qb's on the list, that's high right? So this proves he isn't dinking and dunking how?

If that's what you want to call it. However, That's roughly 4% over the NFL standard. And 4% is roughly 20-22 passes year. So about 1.5 more shorter passes per game. Not a significant difference. So when someone says someone is dinking and dunking the only player I found that was really out of the norm was Brees. You also have to remember this is pass attempts, not completed passes. Some of those may be due to QB's throwing the ball away. Say a QB throws the ball away twice game to avoid sacks, that counts against him here.

Look, what this really shows is the myth of the dinking and dunking QB. 20-22 passes a year that are under 10 yards is not a significant difference to label a QB. Most QB's are right in that range, and most good ones maintain that over a period of years. Bradys' numbers remain relatively the same throughout his career. Does anyone consider him a dinkng and dunking QB?