A Tale of Three Gashes; The Los Angeles Rams Run Defense

[ausmurp]

And, while making light of a solid fact, which is made out as a weakness, isn't a true indicator that we are "24th" ranked against the run. We are closer to the upper third. But then again.....the Vikings don't really have the backs that could "pop" a big run anyway. Maybe if Cook were still in the lineup. But Murray and McKinnon, neither are anything beyond serviceable at best.

Disagree here bro, McK is pretty nasty and easily compares to Chris Thompson of the Redskins. I could see McK breaking a big run on us. Murray is hot garbage though never impressed with him backs like that don't typically work against rams D.

The reality on this game is, the Rams have the most big plays this season and Vikings give up least big plays this season. Unstoppable Force vs immovable object. Going to Bea good game neither team will blow this out. What the rest of the league has admitted and Vikings fans refuse to accept though is the Rams have a way better offense in general primarily bc of Goff and Gurley the 2 most important pieces on O and Vikings have Keenum and McK/Murray who pale in comparison. Goff had his struggles against better pass Ds than Vikings in healthy Seahawks and Jags. But he still looked like a future elite QB on several plays. That perfect pass dropped by Kupp would've had Goff beating Seattle's healthy elite pass D. And even against the Jags he consistently converted 3rd downs. He's been one of the best passers on 3rd down this yr,which is a very important stat to pay attention to.

 

[James Otto]

I didn't miss the point. I know exactly what he was trying to say. Fact is, you can't dismiss those plays. They are part of the run game against the Rams. "Yeah, my team is good, except for those 4 long TD passes we gave up that cost us the games. Without those we would be 6-2 not 2-6." Same concept.

Again - no. Point is, no team that we have played has had continued, sustained success running the ball. There have been three big runs, other than that, below average production.

Everyone is trying to find a significant weakness on this Ram team. If all someone has to point at is the run defense, then, well ....

 

[Raptorman]

And, while making light of a solid fact, which is made out as a weakness, isn't a true indicator that we are "24th" ranked against the run. We are closer to the upper third. But then again.....the Vikings don't really have the backs that could "pop" a big run anyway. Maybe if Cook were still in the lineup. But Murray and McKinnon, neither are anything beyond serviceable at best.

Right. McKinnon can't pop one. Because he's so slowwwwwww................

 

[1maGoh]

Wow. What a great idea. So, if I take the three biggest rushes against the Vikings this year and subtract them from the overall total this is what I get.


29 A.Abdullah left end to 50 for 29 yards
26 I.Crowell right guard for 26 yards,
19 M.Campanaro right end to BLT 44 for 19 yards

74 yards. 732-74=658 658/212 = 3.1 yards per carry. Good for moving up to 2nd in total yardage and at 3.1 YPC, tied for first.

I should do this for passing yards as well. Tell me, is it limited to 3 or can I use 5?

I think the point was that those three tuna are more of outliers than consistent with the team's performance.

I'd be willing to bet that your top 5, maybe even top 10 runs are fairly similar or that are no huge gaps (indicating an outlier; data points that don't fit the remainder of the set).

Those big runs count, they could kill us, and they need to be worked on. However, based on the data set and what know from statistics, we shouldn't expect them. They are outliers, individual instances where the probability that something could happen outweighed our consistent performance.

The question he is trying to answer is: given the data, how can we expect the Rams room defense to perform?

And the answer is: like a top 7 defense, with a possible but unlikely exception early in the game where they give up a single big run.

If we all the same question of the Vikings defense, the answer would be that they would perform like the 5th talked defense because you don't have outliers to skew your statistics. Your run defense is more consistent than ours, so you can actually be expected to play like your ranking. Ours has shown brief flashes of inconsistency in only a third of our games. So we can expect them to perform better than the ranking, but also expect a let down at some point on one play.

 

[James Otto]

All this talk about run defense ... and here we are giving up 18.0 PPG.

This coupled with the fact that we have had big leads in several games, and are resting starters by late 3rd/early 4th quarter. Usually gives opponents the opportunity to tack on a garbage TD or two.

 

[Snaz]

I think the point was that those three tuna are more of outliers than consistent with the team's performance.

I'd be willing to bet that your top 5, maybe even top 10 runs are fairly similar or that are no huge gaps (indicating an outlier; data points that don't fit the remainder of the set).

Those big runs count, they could kill us, and they need to be worked on. However, based on the data set and what know from statistics, we shouldn't expect them. They are outliers, individual instances where the probability that something could happen outweighed our consistent performance.

I don't have time to run the statistics, but if they are outside of the 95% then you should not expect them.
If you throw out the 3 longest runs you also have to throw out the best stops behind the line. This give a better statistical average and eliminated the outliers. It is a very common practice.

Is it a mistake/error causing the long runs, or was it a true indicative of the two teams on that play.
Mistakes happen, and can happen, a pick 6 for instance is in the same realm as those long runs.
It is an unexpected occurrence. Therefore the Rams Run defense is significantly better than it's listed ranking.

 

[bomebadeeda]

Right. McKinnon can't pop one. Because he's so slowwwwwww................

I'm glad I got your attention. But once again......you're calling them right along Uecker ("Just a bit outside....."). The thing about tendencies is you can take the high and low away to get a better idea of a true mean. (It's called "Statistics" and it is actually a college major at some universities.....) That part you missed. But I am glad you did pick up on my little dig........

 

[DaveFan'51]

I should do this for passing yards as well. Tell me, is it limited to 3 or can I use 5?

What ever you do, do it to both Keenum and Goff!!

 

[DaveFan'51]

I think the point was that those three tuna are more of outliers than consistent with the team's performance.

This^^,put simply, is exactly the point of @Farr Be It great post!!:yess:

 

[LACHAMP46]

Great write up and read

Those runs count too. Often times a running back will run for 2,1,1,3,1,5, then Boom! break off a 35 yard run. It is the way of the NFL, which is why run discipline and good tackling are so important.

Yes, those runs count too. In fact, several of the Rams backs of old would pound teams with a bunch of short runs, then eventually burst one or two late.

The one thing your point does hold, we seem to give up big runs early in games....and that can be simple adjustments....rather than an underlying problem of a weakness.

I too believe if we start Walker, less big runs up the middle would occur.

And, I don't think Quinn or Barwin...or any of the OLB's have had an issue in the running game..

DL, then ILB....and lastly the Safeties (Missed tackles!!!)...have been the main culprits.

 

[thirteen28]

View attachment 22806

As pundits wax on philosophically about the Rams one perceived weakness, its 24th ranked run defense, the accepted narrative is this: The Los Angeles Rams are weak against the run.

Well, in this Sean McVay/Wade Phillips era of accountability, one theme runs true: "We've got to get better, and it starts with me." No excuses. You are who your record says you are. Or in this case, Your run defense is as bad as your ranking says it is.

But, in the course of looking a little deeper for answers, is there a hopeful, silver lining in this cloud of defensive dread? No doubt, our proven legend Wade Phillips will make a difference, and in fact has made a positive difference as the season progresses.
View attachment 22809


The Rams opponents have run the ball 237 times in these first 9 games, for 1,062 yards,(4.53) or 118 yards rushing per game. As stated earlier, this ranks 24th in the league. Hardly a statistic that bodes well for the teams chances, should they make it to the post season.

It seems to be a theme in the first half of the season that the Rams get gashed for one or two early runs, then settle down and shut teams running attacks down in the second half. Those runs count too. Often times a running back will run for 2,1,1,3,1,5, then Boom! break off a 35 yard run. It is the way of the NFL, which is why run discipline and good tackling are so important.

Having said all of that, 3 runs during this season have taken the Rams to 24th in the league in rushing.
Game 2 vs. the Redskins, Chris Thompson 61 yards
Game 4 vs. the Cowboys, Alfred Morris 70 yards
Game 6 vs. the Jaguars, Leonard Fournette 75 yards

Take away those 3 runs, and the Rams look like this:
234 rushes 856 yards, (3.65) or 95.1 yards per game. Ranking 7th against the rush in the NFL!

Below I listed each game, total rushing yards allowed, with the longest run allowed in parenthesis, along with the name of the opposing player who achieved that rush. The three bleeding gashes listed in RED:

TEAM...YARDS..LONG RUN...PLAYER

1. Indy.....75...........(24)...........Mack
2. Wash..229..........(61)..........Thompson
3. S.F.....113...........(20)..........Hyde
4. Dal.....189...........(70)..........Morris
5. Sea.....62............(9)............Wilson
6. Jax.....169...........(75)..........Fournette
7. Ariz......25.............(6)..........Peterson
8. NYG...111..........(24)..........Darkwa
9. Hou.....89...........(21)...........L. Miller

These outliers have been brutal! Certainly there have been several other 15, 20 yarders given up by the Rams defense. I think a number of players, in the course of switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 have had a tough time adjusting. Our interior linebackers, Mark Barron and Alec Ogletree looked lost in this defense the first few games. Many of us on ROD were in a panic that we may lack the proper personnel to run Wade Phillips defense.

Outside linebackers Robert Quinn and Conner Barwin didn't look very stout against the run either. In recent games, very encouraging signs have been seen from all but perhaps Quinn. Interestingly Quinn has been ill. I love the Mighty One. I just fear he may be suffering from an acute case of Aintgotitnomoreitis, an affliction that strikes every player eventually. Back surgeries, and constantly being held by Left Tackles certainly contributed to his demise.

View attachment 22807
On the front line, the Rams were missing star defensive lineman Aaron Donald the first game, and he no doubt took a couple more games to be playing up to speed. Rookie Tanzeil Smart, though earning an early starters role at Nose Tackle, has proven to not be strong enough for the role at this point in his career. Tyrunn Walker has taken many of those snaps, as the Rams seems to be stiffening up against the run. Michael Brockers has been the steady rock all year.

So the Three Bleeding Gashes will continue to define this team until they prove otherwise. The trends appear to be encouraging for those of us who follow the men in horns. I can't wait to see how this story ends.

View attachment 22808

Great work, FBI! It just goes to show you the limits of statistics, as those three runs really skew our average down. That being said, I still think there is room for improvement, but we are not as bad as the statistics would say.

I like Vita Vea from Washington because I'm a huge fan of alliteration and that sounds like a Nose Tackle name, plus, he's 6-5 332lbs.

You should always avoid alliteration.

 

[Farr Be It]

Wow. What a great idea. So, if I take the three biggest rushes against the Vikings this year and subtract them from the overall total this is what I get.


29 A.Abdullah left end to 50 for 29 yards
26 I.Crowell right guard for 26 yards,
19 M.Campanaro right end to BLT 44 for 19 yards

74 yards. 732-74=658 658/212 = 3.1 yards per carry. Good for moving up to 2nd in total yardage and at 3.1 YPC, tied for first.

I should do this for passing yards as well. Tell me, is it limited to 3 or can I use 5?

Thanks for proving my point @Raptorman !
You couldn't even find 3 runs over 20 yards. Your 3 runs were all under 30 yards! It is actually a testimony to the consistency of your run defense. Heck, ONE of our runs, (Fournettes 75 yarder) actually exceeds all three of the Vikes worst gashes. These runs are, of course, an indictment of our defense. Not an excuse.

But your example moves your team up a couple spots, mine moves the Rams up from 24th to 7th!

The point is that the early gashes are outliers, while the Rams were still adjusting to this 3-4 scheme of Sonofbums.
Believe what you will. The game is the only thing that matters. Your guys may run all over us. But I'm seeing progress. You may be disappointed Raptor.

 

[ausmurp]

@Raptorman I think the game will be close and believe it to be dead even in Minnesota but I don't see the Vikings going far with Keenum. In this league QB is what makes or breaks a team and you guys have a very good team all around except at QB and RB. Don't get comfortable with Keenum man, we know him better than anyone and he cannot consistently win games. Your D will get you in the playoffs especially with no Rodgers in your division, but they're not the 2000 Ravens they had an elite RB to balance avg to poor QB play. The Vikings QB/RB situation will hurt them eventually. I am baffled at why Vikings fans are so cocky this yr.

 

[Raptorman]

@Raptorman I think the game will be close and believe it to be dead even in Minnesota but I don't see the Vikings going far with Keenum. In this league QB is what makes or breaks a team and you guys have a very good team all around except at QB and RB. Don't get comfortable with Keenum man, we know him better than anyone and he cannot consistently win games. Your D will get you in the playoffs especially with no Rodgers in your division, but they're not the 2000 Ravens they had an elite RB to balance avg to poor QB play. The Vikings QB/RB situation will hurt them eventually. I am baffled at why Vikings fans are so cocky this yr.

Maybe a bit cocky because we are winning with basically our third string QB(In the grand scheme of things, Bradford and Bridgewater would be 1 and 2) and back up RB's. And we fully expect Bridgewater to be starting sooner than later.

 

[Farr Be It]

To @Farr Be It and other members who post articles here at ROD: always include a link and give credit to the author and those who provide images.

http://www.ramsondemand.com/help/terms

4. When attaching articles, include link to the site in which the article appears. Reason being, the authors of many such articles are paid by revenue the site generates from ads on their site. It also avoids any copyright infringements.

Huh?!!

I’m the author.

Took publicly accessible photos from google when I punched up “Ram defense” and I did my own statistical research on NFL.com.

Is that sufficient attribution?

If I copy an article, I always include the by lines.

 

[Farr Be It]

Maybe a bit cocky because we are winning with basically our third string QB(In the grand scheme of things, Bradford and Bridgewater would be 1 and 2) and back up RB's. And we fully expect Bridgewater to be starting sooner than later.

By the way, Keenum is your #2. It sounds cute to say you are sifting into your third string and still winning. Hats off to you guys for doing so well with QB injuries, and RB, etc. but don’t overstate it.

Litmus test: If Bridgewater wasn’t hurt, there would be no Bradford. There was never a Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum depth chart. Right? Be honest Raptor.

 

[Prime Time]

Huh?!!

I’m the author.

Took publicly accessible photos from google when I punched up “Ram defense” and I did my own statistical research on NFL.com.

Is that sufficient attribution?

If I copy an article, I always include the by lines.

Apologies. The article was so well written that I assumed it came from an NFL site. This is what happens when you "ass-u-me."

As soon as I noticed it was written by you, I deleted my post but you were too quick for me.

 

[Farr Be It]

Apologies. The article was so well written that I assumed it came from an NFL site. This is what happens when you "ass-u-me."

As soon as I noticed it was written by you, I deleted my post but you were too quick for me.

Thanks @Prime Time

 

[Raptorman]

By the way, Keenum is your #2. It sounds cute to say you are sifting into your third string and still winning. Hats off to you guys for doing so well with QB injuries, and RB, etc. but don’t overstate it.

Litmus test: If Bridgewater wasn’t hurt, there would be no Bradford. There was never a Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum depth chart. Right? Be honest Raptor.

Actually, if Bradford wasn't hurt, there would be. Had Bradford not hurt his knee, Keenum would be number 3. The only reason for him not being there is that he had surgery the week Bridgewater came back.

Still, were would the Rams be with their Number 2 QB and Gurley out?

 

[LesBaker]

Wow. What a great idea. So, if I take the three biggest rushes against the Vikings this year and subtract them from the overall total this is what I get.


29 A.Abdullah left end to 50 for 29 yards
26 I.Crowell right guard for 26 yards,
19 M.Campanaro right end to BLT 44 for 19 yards

74 yards. 732-74=658 658/212 = 3.1 yards per carry. Good for moving up to 2nd in total yardage and at 3.1 YPC, tied for first.

I should do this for passing yards as well. Tell me, is it limited to 3 or can I use 5?

It's limited to three, that's the rule.

Your team is going to be tested in every phase of the game.

On defense because you haven't played a team that can score like the Rams.

Also on ST's where the Rams are superior while the Vikings are ranked middle of the pack.

Your teams offense has been consistent lately and CK is playing well but this is by far (seriously WAY by far) the best defensive unit they have faced.

Just keep your feet on the ground though. The Rams are #1 in points scored, #3 in fewest points allowed and #1 in ST's ranking. I'd bet that every single one of the Vikings coaches wishes this game wasn't on their schedule this week since the Rams seem to be hitting stride.

It's probably going to be a great game, and entertaining as hell. Afterwards we can have some good discussion, you seem like a smart fan and obviously love your team.