Zac Stacy and Kenny Britt Pressers

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RamzFanz

Damnit
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Jun 4, 2013
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Again, I watched every single play of All-22 from the past two seasons. I can count multiple times per game where Sam checks down with a clean pocket before even giving the deeper routes time to develop. You can't see that on the regular broadcast but I guarantee you if you watch the same film, you'll see it a handful of times every single week. He'll have a clean pocket, and an open window, but he chooses the check down.

As someone who was widely regarded as a Bradford apologist at the previous forum that I was at, it seems I've come under fire for even suggesting that Bradford has become a bit gun-shy. Are we that insecure here that there may be some areas of Sam's game that he needs to improve?

LOL, no, we aren't insecure. We just don't agree with you and expect that you back your statements with facts. You have made a solid argument.

I don't have access to coaches film so I'll take your word for it.

This season may answer a lot of questions about SB for me.
 

RamzFanz

Damnit
Joined
Jun 4, 2013
Messages
9,029
Again, I watched every single play of All-22 from the past two seasons. I can count multiple times per game where Sam checks down with a clean pocket before even giving the deeper routes time to develop. You can't see that on the regular broadcast but I guarantee you if you watch the same film, you'll see it a handful of times every single week. He'll have a clean pocket, and an open window, but he chooses the check down.

As someone who was widely regarded as a Bradford apologist at the previous forum that I was at, it seems I've come under fire for even suggesting that Bradford has become a bit gun-shy. Are we that insecure here that there may be some areas of Sam's game that he needs to improve?

However, in 2012 he sat in the pocket, even under pressure, allowed the long plays to develope, and let it fly. That's just what happened. It's like you're saying it didn't.

Did he also check down when he could have gone long? Maybe, I don't know. I also don't know how you can apply that to his mentality rather than play design or other factors we may not be aware of.
 

ZigZagRam

Pro Bowler
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May 12, 2014
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LOL, no, we aren't insecure. We just don't agree with you and expect that you back your statements with facts. You have made a solid argument.

I don't have access to coaches film so I'll take your word for it.

This season may answer a lot of questions about SB for me.

Check your PMs. It might change your world.
 

-X-

Medium-sized Lebowski
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The Dude
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  • #45
I think the whole YPA stat is misleading. It's calculated without looking at the actual depth of passes during the game, or even the nature of incompletions. So if I take a random game by Bradford (and in this case I use October 17, 2010), and plug in his stats for the game (18/31 198 yards, 1 TD, 0 Ints), I get a YPA of 6.387. Not good. But even if all of his actual 'attempts' were 40 yard passes, it wouldn't matter because it doesn't show up in the stat sheet that way. You can't plug that variable in. You can only plug in the attempts, completions, yards, and TD's. If he had completed all 31, or just 1 of those passes, it's still a YPA of 6.387. Now what happens if Mardy Gilyard catches the 21 yard pass thrown to him in the endzone that he failed to catch because he ran a sloppy route? Well now it's 19/31/239 yards, 1 TD, 0 ints, and the YPA jumps to 7.065. From one pass that was dropped.

Another good example would be the infamous tie game against SF in 2012. He had a 7.051 YPA for that game. Nobody has a problem with that, I presume. Well, if Gibson lines up right, and Amendola's 80 yard catch in OT isn't nullified, then Bradford's YPA jumps up to 9.103. But why point out 'excuses'? Just look at the stat.
 

-X-

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He'll have a clean pocket, and an open window, but he chooses the check down.
And you know this because you saw what he saw? Or you know what he was coached to do for that particular game (gameplan)? I've watched the same things you have, but I don't see what you see. I do see a lot of underneath stuff, but I'm not so presumptuous that I can say he "chooses" to do that. When Givens was sent on 9's all throughout 2012, I'm willing to bet that Bradford was coached (gameplan) to throw to him if he's manned up. But I don't know that for sure, so I won't assume.
 

ZigZagRam

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I think you're right to an extent, but when you look at the depth of pass stats on PFF, Sam's numbers there also reflect that unwillingness to not check down.

I haven't re-upped my subscription so if anybody has access to those numbers and would like to post them, we could break things down a little better than the admittedly limited PYA stat.

Now there have obviously been several reasons why Sam hasn't passed deep more, his lack of quality receivers and OL play definitely being a part of the equation, but given his reluctance to throw deep more frequently, I think it's fair to question that.

What made Sam such an amazing prospect was running that play action game at Oklahoma where teams would have to focus on stopping DeMarco Murray first and foremost. This opened up a lot of stuff downfield. If our offense can do the same I too believe we won't even be having this conversation next offseason. But until they start playing the games, it's just hope.
 

ZigZagRam

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And you know this because you saw what he saw? Or you know what he was coached to do for that particular game (gameplan)? I've watched the same things you have, but I don't see what you see. I do see a lot of underneath stuff, but I'm not so presumptuous that I can say he "chooses" to do that. When Givens was sent on 9's all throughout 2012, I'm willing to bet that Bradford was coached (gameplan) to throw to him if he's manned up. But I don't know that for sure, so I won't assume.

I could certainly be wrong but I can't imagine they told Sam to go ahead and use the quick check down even if he has time for a secondary deep route to develop, especially when teams were stacking 8 in the box with regularity knowing that we weren't going to be challenging deep.

It's one thing to run the quick-strike spread, but when teams were loading the box you've gotta start looking beyond the 10.
 

-X-

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #49
I think you're right to an extent, but when you look at the depth of pass stats on PFF, Sam's numbers there also reflect that unwillingness to not check down.

I haven't re-upped my subscription so if anybody has access to those numbers and would like to post them, we could break things down a little better than the admittedly limited PYA stat.

Now there have obviously been several reasons why Sam hasn't passed deep more, his lack of quality receivers and OL play definitely being a part of the equation, but given his reluctance to throw deep more frequently, I think it's fair to question that.

What made Sam such an amazing prospect was running that play action game at Oklahoma where teams would have to focus on stopping DeMarco Murray first and foremost. This opened up a lot of stuff downfield. If our offense can do the same I too believe we won't even be having this conversation next offseason. But until they start playing the games, it's just hope.
I let mine lapse too, because I started to feel like I wasn't doing enough thinking on my own by being able to access their databases. I'd prefer to use my eyes again, and let my personal opinions rein supreme. lol. I've already posted why I think YPA is a stupid stat (almost as bad as using targets to formulate drop %), but I suppose if PFF has an equally damming "depth of pass attempt" stat, then it would indicate a trend. The problem with both is (as you alluded to already) the lack of a consistent deep target. Now if someone were to actually go in and manually calculate all of Bradford's true YPA or DPA figures when he had Alexander, Lloyd, Givens, and (on a smaller scale) Clayton at his disposal, I think his stats would reflect a more favorable number.
 

ZigZagRam

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I let mine lapse too, because I started to feel like I wasn't doing enough thinking on my own by being able to access their databases. I'd prefer to use my eyes again, and let my personal opinions rein supreme. lol. I've already posted why I think YPA is a stupid stat (almost as bad as using targets to formulate drop %), but I suppose if PFF has an equally damming "depth of pass attempt" stat, then it would indicate a trend. The problem with both is (as you alluded to already) the lack of a consistent deep target. Now if someone were to actually go in and manually calculate all of Bradford's true YPA or DPA figures when he had Alexander, Lloyd, Givens, and (on a smaller scale) Clayton at his disposal, I think his stats would reflect a more favorable number.

That's where the question marks come in. How much is opportunity and how much is bad habit? It seems like we'll get an answer this year with the best supporting cast he's ever had, and I feel pretty confident that he'll be able to shake whatever hesitancy he's shown.

If not I'll be eating a lot of crow in front of the non-believers.
 

-X-

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And just how the hell did this turn into another Bradford thread anyway? :sleep:
 

wrstdude

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May 27, 2013
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433
I think the whole YPA stat is misleading. It's calculated without looking at the actual depth of passes during the game, or even the nature of incompletions. So if I take a random game by Bradford (and in this case I use October 17, 2010), and plug in his stats for the game (18/31 198 yards, 1 TD, 0 Ints), I get a YPA of 6.387. Not good. But even if all of his actual 'attempts' were 40 yard passes, it wouldn't matter because it doesn't show up in the stat sheet that way. You can't plug that variable in. You can only plug in the attempts, completions, yards, and TD's. If he had completed all 31, or just 1 of those passes, it's still a YPA of 6.387. Now what happens if Mardy Gilyard catches the 21 yard pass thrown to him in the endzone that he failed to catch because he ran a sloppy route? Well now it's 19/31/239 yards, 1 TD, 0 ints, and the YPA jumps to 7.065. From one pass that was dropped.

Another good example would be the infamous tie game against SF in 2012. He had a 7.051 YPA for that game. Nobody has a problem with that, I presume. Well, if Gibson lines up right, and Amendola's 80 yard catch in OT isn't nullified, then Bradford's YPA jumps up to 9.103. But why point out 'excuses'? Just look at the stat.

Infinity likes
 

shaunpinney

Hall of Fame
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Sep 20, 2012
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4,805
And just how the hell did this turn into another Bradford thread anyway? :sleep:

Because Bradford is our golden idol, love him or hate him, he is the key to this team....

with regards to him taking the check downs and not throwing deep because of habit - or lack of faith in his receivers - inability to see the deep ball - lack of faith in his accuracy or whatever - in my opinion, just like other QBs, he does a lot of what he's told to do - he's got the ability for the bomb (Givens rookie record proves that). Maybe it's more of a case of (as I've mentioned on other Bradford threads) that they want to keep the Offense ticking over, marching down field, slowly but surely, resting our defence and tiring theirs. BUT this is just my opinion, everyone has their own ;)