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http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2015/...t-rams-are-falling-apart-worst-offense-in-NFL
Previewing the Lions' next opponent: The Rams are falling apart
By Jeremy Reisman @DetroitOnLion
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Detroit Lions' Week 14 opponent is in free fall.
The Detroit Lions (4-8) and St. Louis Rams (4-8) find themselves with identical records, similar coaching problems and equally futile playoff odds. But their journeys to this current point in time could not be more dissimilar. The Rams, starting the season off with an emotional division win. The Lions, starting the season winless through five weeks.
St. Louis blowing a respectable 4-3 record by dropping five straight. Detroit desperately trying to pull themselves out of an 1-7 hole by rallying off three straight wins. But after dropping division games in Week 13, both teams find themselves in the same spot: likely headed for a top 10 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
But there is still more football to be played, so let's take a closer look at the St. Louis Rams.
St. Louis Rams (4-8)
Schedule so far:
Week 1 - vs. Seahawks - won, 34-31 (OT)
Week 2 - at Redskins - lost, 10-24
Week 3 - vs. Steelers - lost, 6-12
Week 4 - at Cardinals - won, 24-22
Week 5 - at Packers - lost, 10-24
Week 7 - vs. Browns - won, 24-6
Week 8 - vs. 49ers - won, 27-6
Week 9 - at Vikings - lost, 18-21 (OT)
Week 10 - vs. Bears - lost, 13-37
Week 11 - at Ravens - lost, 13-16
Week 12 - at Bengals - lost, 7-31
Week 13 - vs. Cardinals - lost, 3-27
Reasons for optimism:
The Rams are on a huge five-game skid. After starting the season with a promising 4-3 record, including wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals, the Rams have completely fallen apart.
Offensively, the Rams haven't scored more than 18 points in five weeks. As a result, the Rams fired their offensive coordinator on Monday and announced Case Keenum will be the starter against the Lions. Keenum is completing just 54.5 percent of his passes in his young career, and has a passer rating of just 76.7.
While the Rams boast a decent defense, they have not played well lately. Over the past four games, Rams opponents are averaging 27.8 points a game.
Reasons for pessimism:
Todd Gurley is the real deal. For all of the offensive struggles (they ranked 32nd in team offense by Football Outsiders' DVOA), Gurley has been a very big bright spot. The rookie out of Georgia ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards per game (83.5) and ninth in yards per carry (4.8).
Additionally, their defense is still pretty good. Through 12 weeks, the Rams defense ranks third in DVOA. The defense is led by Aaron Donald, who leads all defensive tackles with 8.0 sacks on the year. The Lions offense, who struggled with consistency last week, will have their hands full this week.
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Let me get this out of the way before people start saying it..
WE SHOULD HAVE DRAFTED AARON DONALD!
There. Hopefully that helps to get it over with.
Now onto football. This game looks very winnable. Actually I would be surprised if we came out on the losing end. No way Case Keenum and this offense beats us unless Gurley has just a monstrous day.
With that said and with my expectations…. Lions lose…. Keenum picks apart Slay like no other QB ever has…. Gurley decides to remind the Lions of Barry Sanders… Aaron Donalds post game interview after having 5 sacks says "You should have drafted me."… Lions lose Madden style 53 – 9… And Caldwell says "We played a good game and are focused on making the playoffs."
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No - it won't get it over with
I was salivating when Donald was available at #10, too.
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Let me just say this.
At the time and even now drafting Aaron Donald would have been the wrong choice. Not based on talent because he is obviously a star, but based on need and value. At that time we already had 2 very good DTs on the team in Suh and Fairley and a good back up in Mosley. The Lions also could have been confident at the time they would be able to bring Suh back. They did try resigning him.
Also no matter how good Donald is he would not be contributing to wins. Look how good this defense is even without a talent like Donald. What would Donald add? A slightly better overall Defense?
There were actually a lot of better and more logical options at the time than Donald. Lewan, OBJ, Fuller, Clinton-Dix. Those all fit more of a need and would do more for the team. This team doesn’t have a problem on defense, we have a problem moving the ball on offense. We have had multiple quarters I believe with less than 25 offensive yards…
At the time I wanted to trade up to where the Bills did and grab Watkins or if we did sit still grab OBJ. This team still has no real offensive threat outside of Calvin and Taint. Riddick is really our only other receiving option. Imagine this offense with Calvin, Taint, and OBJ… I’d prefer that 100 times over having Donald. Or imagine this offensive line with a true LT in Lewan. Again would prefer that over Donald. Fuller even made more sense. Slay wasn’t the player he was at the time and was very mediocre at best and we had 30 something year old Mathis.
This is all my opinion but I really don’t see this crazy missed opportunity on Donald besides for the fact he is a very talented DT. We have had one of the best for the past 5 years and how much did that really help? The Buccs have had one of the best in McCoy and how many games is he winning for them? The Dolphins brought in Suh and they sure now look like a playoff team… Is Donald changing things over in St Louis? No. But he is a damn good player.
Obviously Ebron was the wrong pick but there were a lot of better options that to me made a lot more sense than Donald. Just because he is now a star DT doesn’t mean we should have drafted him. Also a lot of people were worried about his size and that he was going to get destroyed by power blocking.
You never know how these things work out. If Donald was a chump and below average DT all those "we should have drafted Donald" or "I wanted Donald" people wouldn’t be saying a word. Instead they would be saying "We should have drafted OBJ" or who ever else was a star player drafted after our pick.
We missed out. Other teams did to that year. We will miss again, it happens. Just live with what we did not matter how much it sucks. Ebron was the wrong choice and now the guy that drafted him is fired and the other people who were involved with that choice will most likely be gone after this season as well.
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They got Donald because we took Ebron, but we got Suh because they took Bradford.
These things happen.
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I think that Mayhew said the lions would build through the draft
So IMO taking a DT to develop for a year , contribute as a rookie but he’s a rookie so how much can you expect , then come in and make a reali pact year two replacing fairley (didn’t pick up option so leaving was writing on the wall) and Suh was still questionable. Add to it , how important they had made DT in taking both Suh and fairley .. It would’ve made sense.
I think , i wonder … If there were trade back options at 10 with Donald , obj , lewan all there ….?
I didn’t like the idea of trading picks for Watkins that one I am sure of.
Also in terms of whatSuh did , I’d say look at what he could do when they went 11-5. That’s not the same team he played with in 2009-2012
With that type of argument .., what did we win with Suh …. Pretty much could be used for any of lions talents .. CJ , stafford , Ansah , Quinn
Really only Ebron can say he came in and team won , went straight to playoffs. That’s what they did with Ebron.
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I understand what you are saying.
But drafting Donald was almost the scared option. I guess you could call it that. Drafting him because you didn’t know if you would resign Suh. Like you said Fairley wasn’t coming back but they did want Suh. But then you could use that strategy constantly and put yourself in a hole.
For instance this offseason and draft. Look at lets say Darius Slay. His contract is up after next season. We don’t know if he would like to stay. He could walk and want to play for a contender. So do we draft a CB with our 1st choice for that insurance in case he does leave us? Instead of filling other needs on the offensive line or other positions?
If you continued that trend it wouldn’t work out too well. Donald wasn’t a need. If we had the same pick and this was the 2015 NFL Draft and Donald was there then I was say no brainer. Then I would be absolutely pissed they passed on him. Lewan or another player maker on offense, or even Fuller or Dix, was more of a need than an insurance DT.
And when I was comparing the DT to wins thing I was referring more the this: How many great teams, Super Bowl teams, have you looked at and said damn if they didn’t have (Insert DT) I don’t think they could have done it. But if you take away a more impactful position, say a WR, CB, you are looking at more of an impact to a team then say a DT.
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By that logic fairley never should have been drafted
The lions had a younger flu and cwill. The DT play with the addition of Suh , remember SLH too was pretty strong. … Maybe that’s your point.
Taking another first round tight end could be part of your point too.
I guess for me had they taken a db I’d have been fine with that too. I think given the contract status it wouldn’t have been playing scared. In fact it could add leverage. Pay them if they deserve it but with talent behind , you can let them walk This situation is specific to the lions situation at DT because , especially in hindsight , they lost 3-4 DTs in one offseason and the scheme they ran seemed to put so much emphasis on the DT play.
Without using hindsight argument though, it was pretty clear there was a strong possibility the lions would lose Suh and fairley especially if lions were offering close to their final offer early on in negotiations and Suh was saying not yet, no thank you.
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The Fairley thing is different.
The logic I used above is not drafting worried losing a future player after the season following the draft when there are other needs that need to be addressed. If we didn’t have another needs I would have been for drafting Donald in case Suh decides to walk but we did have other needs. We needed offensive line help and we needed another receiving threat on offense. Funny because both those things are missing still and hurting us more than a DT which again is why Donald shouldn’t have been the pick.
We went with Ebron to give us that receiving threat and that obviously hasn’t worked out that well yet. Missing on Lewan and OBJ is more critical to this team than missing out on Donald which is kind of my main statement I’m trying to make.
The Fairley pick wasn’t drafting out of really need or an insurance policy because we had Suh and had him for multiple seasons still. The Fairley pick has always really surprised me more than many others have. Especially when 3 out of the next 4 picks were Robert Quinn, Pouncey, and Solder.
To bring this all back around I would have went with multiple other choices other than Donald at the time. Lewan and OBJ especially. Not because they are good because they were more of a need over Donald. The building around a DT thing hasn’t ever really worked out that well for many teams.
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i get that
I was impressed by fairley after that championship game
but also liked casey Mathews in the third.
I was afraid of Quinn as Lions luck would seem to have that go badly
and would’ve liked them to have started trying to draft olineman earlier.
even though they’ve highly invested now in oline picks
I’d still like them to add 1-3 more through the draft.
I was surprised by Ebron- i dont think he had a lot of build up to the Lions at 10 so I had mostly considered others –
I had safety as a high need too
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Lions have been stout
against the run, and with the Rams passingattack game led by the less-than-impressive Keenum and a cast of underwhelming receivers, the Lions should have a good day on defense.
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First team to 10, wins
And I don’t see St. Louis getting to 10.
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Good thing they won't too
Because as soon as we hit 10, we’ll go ultra-conservative and hope our defense can hold the lead for us.
--------
I know this is only somewhat related but...
I seriously have no idea what to do with Stafford in fantasy this week. I felt like I should bench him, but with the Rams offense looking out of sorts, I feel like Stafford will get the ball a lot.
Any thoughts?
--------
I have to think Stafford will get some short fields
I know the defense will have a good look at a TD.
--------
Yes the Rams may have the worst offense in the NFL ...
But they do have one of the top, opportunistic Defenses in the NFL. They produce turnovers and, in many cases, defensive points. They also have Todd Gurley, who may not be Adrian "the Lion killer" Peterson, but runs in a style similar to AP.
AP alone has been responsible for many Lions’ losses no matter how pathetic the rest of the Viqueens offense was. So with Todd Gurley, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the statistical fact that the Rams overall offense is the "worst in the NFL"
Previewing the Lions' next opponent: The Rams are falling apart
By Jeremy Reisman @DetroitOnLion
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Detroit Lions' Week 14 opponent is in free fall.
The Detroit Lions (4-8) and St. Louis Rams (4-8) find themselves with identical records, similar coaching problems and equally futile playoff odds. But their journeys to this current point in time could not be more dissimilar. The Rams, starting the season off with an emotional division win. The Lions, starting the season winless through five weeks.
St. Louis blowing a respectable 4-3 record by dropping five straight. Detroit desperately trying to pull themselves out of an 1-7 hole by rallying off three straight wins. But after dropping division games in Week 13, both teams find themselves in the same spot: likely headed for a top 10 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
But there is still more football to be played, so let's take a closer look at the St. Louis Rams.
St. Louis Rams (4-8)
Schedule so far:
Week 1 - vs. Seahawks - won, 34-31 (OT)
Week 2 - at Redskins - lost, 10-24
Week 3 - vs. Steelers - lost, 6-12
Week 4 - at Cardinals - won, 24-22
Week 5 - at Packers - lost, 10-24
Week 7 - vs. Browns - won, 24-6
Week 8 - vs. 49ers - won, 27-6
Week 9 - at Vikings - lost, 18-21 (OT)
Week 10 - vs. Bears - lost, 13-37
Week 11 - at Ravens - lost, 13-16
Week 12 - at Bengals - lost, 7-31
Week 13 - vs. Cardinals - lost, 3-27
Reasons for optimism:
The Rams are on a huge five-game skid. After starting the season with a promising 4-3 record, including wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals, the Rams have completely fallen apart.
Offensively, the Rams haven't scored more than 18 points in five weeks. As a result, the Rams fired their offensive coordinator on Monday and announced Case Keenum will be the starter against the Lions. Keenum is completing just 54.5 percent of his passes in his young career, and has a passer rating of just 76.7.
While the Rams boast a decent defense, they have not played well lately. Over the past four games, Rams opponents are averaging 27.8 points a game.
Reasons for pessimism:
Todd Gurley is the real deal. For all of the offensive struggles (they ranked 32nd in team offense by Football Outsiders' DVOA), Gurley has been a very big bright spot. The rookie out of Georgia ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards per game (83.5) and ninth in yards per carry (4.8).
Additionally, their defense is still pretty good. Through 12 weeks, the Rams defense ranks third in DVOA. The defense is led by Aaron Donald, who leads all defensive tackles with 8.0 sacks on the year. The Lions offense, who struggled with consistency last week, will have their hands full this week.
---------
Let me get this out of the way before people start saying it..
WE SHOULD HAVE DRAFTED AARON DONALD!
There. Hopefully that helps to get it over with.
Now onto football. This game looks very winnable. Actually I would be surprised if we came out on the losing end. No way Case Keenum and this offense beats us unless Gurley has just a monstrous day.
With that said and with my expectations…. Lions lose…. Keenum picks apart Slay like no other QB ever has…. Gurley decides to remind the Lions of Barry Sanders… Aaron Donalds post game interview after having 5 sacks says "You should have drafted me."… Lions lose Madden style 53 – 9… And Caldwell says "We played a good game and are focused on making the playoffs."
---------
No - it won't get it over with
I was salivating when Donald was available at #10, too.
----------
Let me just say this.
At the time and even now drafting Aaron Donald would have been the wrong choice. Not based on talent because he is obviously a star, but based on need and value. At that time we already had 2 very good DTs on the team in Suh and Fairley and a good back up in Mosley. The Lions also could have been confident at the time they would be able to bring Suh back. They did try resigning him.
Also no matter how good Donald is he would not be contributing to wins. Look how good this defense is even without a talent like Donald. What would Donald add? A slightly better overall Defense?
There were actually a lot of better and more logical options at the time than Donald. Lewan, OBJ, Fuller, Clinton-Dix. Those all fit more of a need and would do more for the team. This team doesn’t have a problem on defense, we have a problem moving the ball on offense. We have had multiple quarters I believe with less than 25 offensive yards…
At the time I wanted to trade up to where the Bills did and grab Watkins or if we did sit still grab OBJ. This team still has no real offensive threat outside of Calvin and Taint. Riddick is really our only other receiving option. Imagine this offense with Calvin, Taint, and OBJ… I’d prefer that 100 times over having Donald. Or imagine this offensive line with a true LT in Lewan. Again would prefer that over Donald. Fuller even made more sense. Slay wasn’t the player he was at the time and was very mediocre at best and we had 30 something year old Mathis.
This is all my opinion but I really don’t see this crazy missed opportunity on Donald besides for the fact he is a very talented DT. We have had one of the best for the past 5 years and how much did that really help? The Buccs have had one of the best in McCoy and how many games is he winning for them? The Dolphins brought in Suh and they sure now look like a playoff team… Is Donald changing things over in St Louis? No. But he is a damn good player.
Obviously Ebron was the wrong pick but there were a lot of better options that to me made a lot more sense than Donald. Just because he is now a star DT doesn’t mean we should have drafted him. Also a lot of people were worried about his size and that he was going to get destroyed by power blocking.
You never know how these things work out. If Donald was a chump and below average DT all those "we should have drafted Donald" or "I wanted Donald" people wouldn’t be saying a word. Instead they would be saying "We should have drafted OBJ" or who ever else was a star player drafted after our pick.
We missed out. Other teams did to that year. We will miss again, it happens. Just live with what we did not matter how much it sucks. Ebron was the wrong choice and now the guy that drafted him is fired and the other people who were involved with that choice will most likely be gone after this season as well.
---------
They got Donald because we took Ebron, but we got Suh because they took Bradford.
These things happen.
---------
I think that Mayhew said the lions would build through the draft
So IMO taking a DT to develop for a year , contribute as a rookie but he’s a rookie so how much can you expect , then come in and make a reali pact year two replacing fairley (didn’t pick up option so leaving was writing on the wall) and Suh was still questionable. Add to it , how important they had made DT in taking both Suh and fairley .. It would’ve made sense.
I think , i wonder … If there were trade back options at 10 with Donald , obj , lewan all there ….?
I didn’t like the idea of trading picks for Watkins that one I am sure of.
Also in terms of whatSuh did , I’d say look at what he could do when they went 11-5. That’s not the same team he played with in 2009-2012
With that type of argument .., what did we win with Suh …. Pretty much could be used for any of lions talents .. CJ , stafford , Ansah , Quinn
Really only Ebron can say he came in and team won , went straight to playoffs. That’s what they did with Ebron.
---------
I understand what you are saying.
But drafting Donald was almost the scared option. I guess you could call it that. Drafting him because you didn’t know if you would resign Suh. Like you said Fairley wasn’t coming back but they did want Suh. But then you could use that strategy constantly and put yourself in a hole.
For instance this offseason and draft. Look at lets say Darius Slay. His contract is up after next season. We don’t know if he would like to stay. He could walk and want to play for a contender. So do we draft a CB with our 1st choice for that insurance in case he does leave us? Instead of filling other needs on the offensive line or other positions?
If you continued that trend it wouldn’t work out too well. Donald wasn’t a need. If we had the same pick and this was the 2015 NFL Draft and Donald was there then I was say no brainer. Then I would be absolutely pissed they passed on him. Lewan or another player maker on offense, or even Fuller or Dix, was more of a need than an insurance DT.
And when I was comparing the DT to wins thing I was referring more the this: How many great teams, Super Bowl teams, have you looked at and said damn if they didn’t have (Insert DT) I don’t think they could have done it. But if you take away a more impactful position, say a WR, CB, you are looking at more of an impact to a team then say a DT.
---------
By that logic fairley never should have been drafted
The lions had a younger flu and cwill. The DT play with the addition of Suh , remember SLH too was pretty strong. … Maybe that’s your point.
Taking another first round tight end could be part of your point too.
I guess for me had they taken a db I’d have been fine with that too. I think given the contract status it wouldn’t have been playing scared. In fact it could add leverage. Pay them if they deserve it but with talent behind , you can let them walk This situation is specific to the lions situation at DT because , especially in hindsight , they lost 3-4 DTs in one offseason and the scheme they ran seemed to put so much emphasis on the DT play.
Without using hindsight argument though, it was pretty clear there was a strong possibility the lions would lose Suh and fairley especially if lions were offering close to their final offer early on in negotiations and Suh was saying not yet, no thank you.
---------
The Fairley thing is different.
The logic I used above is not drafting worried losing a future player after the season following the draft when there are other needs that need to be addressed. If we didn’t have another needs I would have been for drafting Donald in case Suh decides to walk but we did have other needs. We needed offensive line help and we needed another receiving threat on offense. Funny because both those things are missing still and hurting us more than a DT which again is why Donald shouldn’t have been the pick.
We went with Ebron to give us that receiving threat and that obviously hasn’t worked out that well yet. Missing on Lewan and OBJ is more critical to this team than missing out on Donald which is kind of my main statement I’m trying to make.
The Fairley pick wasn’t drafting out of really need or an insurance policy because we had Suh and had him for multiple seasons still. The Fairley pick has always really surprised me more than many others have. Especially when 3 out of the next 4 picks were Robert Quinn, Pouncey, and Solder.
To bring this all back around I would have went with multiple other choices other than Donald at the time. Lewan and OBJ especially. Not because they are good because they were more of a need over Donald. The building around a DT thing hasn’t ever really worked out that well for many teams.
---------
i get that
I was impressed by fairley after that championship game
but also liked casey Mathews in the third.
I was afraid of Quinn as Lions luck would seem to have that go badly
and would’ve liked them to have started trying to draft olineman earlier.
even though they’ve highly invested now in oline picks
I’d still like them to add 1-3 more through the draft.
I was surprised by Ebron- i dont think he had a lot of build up to the Lions at 10 so I had mostly considered others –
I had safety as a high need too
--------
Lions have been stout
against the run, and with the Rams passing
--------
First team to 10, wins
And I don’t see St. Louis getting to 10.
---------
Good thing they won't too
Because as soon as we hit 10, we’ll go ultra-conservative and hope our defense can hold the lead for us.
--------
I know this is only somewhat related but...
I seriously have no idea what to do with Stafford in fantasy this week. I felt like I should bench him, but with the Rams offense looking out of sorts, I feel like Stafford will get the ball a lot.
Any thoughts?
--------
I have to think Stafford will get some short fields
I know the defense will have a good look at a TD.
--------
Yes the Rams may have the worst offense in the NFL ...
But they do have one of the top, opportunistic Defenses in the NFL. They produce turnovers and, in many cases, defensive points. They also have Todd Gurley, who may not be Adrian "the Lion killer" Peterson, but runs in a style similar to AP.
AP alone has been responsible for many Lions’ losses no matter how pathetic the rest of the Viqueens offense was. So with Todd Gurley, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the statistical fact that the Rams overall offense is the "worst in the NFL"
