Scoring Defenses and how they've fared thus far in the Playoffs

[Raptorman]

A little something I put together for a Packers forum. Vikings and Packers are good example of how defense is important. After all, no one would claim the Vikings have had an elite QB the last 4 years.

Since 2014 when Zimmer took over the Vikings. Games in which the teams scored 20 points or more.
Packers average defense PPG rank for those 4 years 18.
Vikings average defense PPG rank for those 4 years 6

           W    L     Win %    OPPG    DPPG     APDL
Packers   41   12     .774      29.9   22.9    -10.9
Vikings   34    7     .829      28.1   18.3     -5.3

OPPG= Offensive points per game
DPPG= Defensive points per game
APDL= Average point differential in losses.

The APDL surprised me. After all, one would have thought that a team with an elite QB would be much closer to winning the games they lose than a team without an elite QB. While a small sample, it goes to show how much a defense not giving up points matters as compared to having an elite QB and middle of the road defense.

 

[Merlin]

I'm not ready to concede that the Rams have to be well below the 19 PPG mark to move further into the playoffs and or a Super Bowl. The way things are set up for the Rams is to continue to grow on all three phases of the game. This off season the Rams need to address issues on defense. I don't see McVay making the Rams a Bears or Ravens type defense.

Never said anything about us needing to have a Bears or Ravens type defense. That Bears team gave up 12.4 ppg which is sickeningly good, and the Ravens gave up 10.3, both of which aren't realistic as a goal. What we need to do is lower that scoring against a bit from the 20.3 we gave up this season, won't be too hard to get there only need some better LB play inside and outside without our secondary degrading from FA. Well that and a NT.

But either way no sweat. You and I just see things differently man. Cheers.

 

[Merlin]

The APDL surprised me. After all, one would have thought that a team with an elite QB would be much closer to winning the games they lose than a team without an elite QB. While a small sample, it goes to show how much a defense not giving up points matters as compared to having an elite QB and middle of the road defense.

Yeah it is revealing. Defense also does a lot for the QB's mentality, where he won't need to feel like he has to press all the time and with the lesser QBs that makes a huge difference and allows them to build some confidence.

There are a lot of other metrics that really matter of course. I think third down conversion percentage for and against is absolutely crucial for example. As well as QB rating for and against. And I like to mess around with composite stats too, usually come up with one or two before the playoffs just for fun, like this season I tried out a balance-based composite stat and it blew @$$ for predicting anything lol.

 

[Mackeyser]

Da'Ron Payne

My only issue with Payne is that he looks to too easily be washed out of plays.

Now, my caveat is that I dunno what the coaches are asking him to do. Much like difficulty in analyzing Glenn Dorsey and Michael Brockers, guys from the SEC seemed to be coached to simply stand up the OL and let the LBs and DBs fly to the ball. So it's harder to translate, imho.

Vea, otoh, seems to stand up to double teams and is as hard to move as a fire hydrant. He's not advanced pass rushing as Payne, but I would say that he's significantly better at run defending at this point with tremendous upside and it's crazy to say that he can get stronger, but he can.

 

[jrry32]

My only issue with Payne is that he looks to too easily be washed out of plays.

Now, my caveat is that I dunno what the coaches are asking him to do. Much like difficulty in analyzing Glenn Dorsey and Michael Brockers, guys from the SEC seemed to be coached to simply stand up the OL and let the LBs and DBs fly to the ball. So it's harder to translate, imho.

Vea, otoh, seems to stand up to double teams and is as hard to move as a fire hydrant. He's not advanced pass rushing as Payne, but I would say that he's significantly better at run defending at this point with tremendous upside and it's crazy to say that he can get stronger, but he can.

Granted I haven't had a chance to watch his film from this year, but he stood out to me last year. And when I keyed in on him in the NCG, he was manhandling the UGA OLs. Based on what I've seen, I can't agree with the bold.

Regardless, Wade prefers an aggressive, attacking front. If Payne is having double teams thrown his way, it'll free up Brockers and Donald. If Vea is the athlete that I think he is, he's not getting to us at #23. On the other hand, those Alabama DLs seem to fall every year based on the belief that they're pretty close to maxed out.(Ex. Jonathan Allen, A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Jesse Williams, Josh Chapman, etc.).

 

[Mackeyser]

Granted I haven't had a chance to watch his film from this year, but he stood out to me last year. And when I keyed in on him in the NCG, he was manhandling the UGA OLs. Based on what I've seen, I can't agree with the bold.

Regardless, Wade prefers an aggressive, attacking front. If Payne is having double teams thrown his way, it'll free up Brockers and Donald. If Vea is the athlete that I think he is, he's not getting to us at #23. On the other hand, those Alabama DLs seem to fall every year based on the belief that they're pretty close to maxed out.(Ex. Jonathan Allen, A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Jesse Williams, Josh Chapman, etc.).

Well, I agree and I did say that it's hard to evaluate them because we can't know what was asked of them. We know Brockers can be a penetrating terror, but you'd never know it from his college tape.

 

[Raptorman]

The hoody is a great defensive coach no doubt...

Brady's teams have also averaged 26.5 ppg came in the playoffs however.

The Highest PPG on defense in the Brady era is 21.625. 2002, and they didn't make the playoffs. The average in the Brady era is 19 ppg. The average in the years they won their Super Bowls is 16.7

 

[PhillyRam]

.......
I don't think the point difference allowed was the determining factor in the Vikings winning. It was a bad play by one player and maybe a bad defensive play call. The Vikings also had 2-1 turnover advantage. The Eagles defense stepped up on the last drive but, the Jags defense letup 42 points. Three of the four games could have gone either way.

The Rams defense has a ways to go. What I got so far from watching the playoffs. The Rams defensive backs need to play tighter coverage. Troy Hill did step up against the Falcons but can he do it next year. The Rams pass rush was inconsistent. Aaron Donald was the cause for most of the pass rush pressure but, he can't do it alone. Lack of depth hurt the Rams. When Longacre went down the Rams second wave of defensive players effectiveness was greatly diminished. When Brockers got hurt against the Falcons the Rams simple had no one to take his place. I agree the Rams need to step up the defense.

Well, the Vikes defense mattered because without it they are not playing at home in that game and maybe not playing in that game at all. As for the game itself, their D allowed them to jump out to a 17-0 lead, and sure they eventually have that lead up, but again without that D that game is not that close and again likely not played in Minnesota if at all. So their D put them in position to have a chance.

If the Ram D was better, maybe the Rams have more margin for error and can overcome the turnovers against Atlanta the way the Eagles did? Or they win that one oe two extra games during the season ( Eagles/ Redskins) and they get a bye and a better match up.

 

[Ellard80]

The Highest PPG on defense in the Brady era is 21.625. 2002, and they didn't make the playoffs. The average in the Brady era is 19 ppg. The average in the years they won their Super Bowls is 16.7

Right I'm not disgreeing with you about the defense mattering - but the Patriots also can move the ball and have one super bowls because of that as well - 26.5 post season.

 

[LesBaker]

BTW, Since Belicheat took over, the Patriots have had a top 10 defense in all but 2 years of his tenure. And people think it's Brady.

Yup, it's overlooked because of how great Brady has been.

The year they beat the Rams in the SB they only gave up 17 PPG which is stellar.

 

[DCH]

Yup, it's overlooked because of how great Brady has been.

The year they beat the Rams in the SB they only gave up 17 PPG which is stellar.

It's a combination of a 'bend but don't break' mentality and the offense staying on the field long enough to rest the D and to wear down the opposing D over the course of time (see last year's Super Bowl where the Falcons were completely exhausted by the middle of the 3rd)

 

[FrantikRam]

If we play our starters against the Niners, our defense finishes better - maybe even better than the Falcons.

If you took possessions where at least 6 of our 11 starters were in, and looked at our points per drive, I would guess that our scoring D would easily be top 10.

We still lost to the Falcons though.

 

[BonifayRam]

be sweet, and maybe we can trade up a bit, good nose tackle important to our D
train

Morning nighttrain:coffee: I agree fully with you here I think the Rams have some serious valued trade fodder to utilized with you ideal above.

This is a good draft for some very solid 34 Defense NT IMO. Somewhat rare. With so many teams having needs @ QB's & OL'ers ...Rams & company may find themselves in a position to come away with one of the best young NT's in this draft. Brockers will be 28 before the this season ends & Donald will be 27 yr old before the TC starts so it would make sense to me to select & insert a much younger 21 or 22 yr old talented rookie NT in between them to learn from. As I said above it also helps balance the 2018 Cap Costs involved in our DL once Donald gets his monstrously massive contract.

Rams already have the back ups for Brockers (Fox) & Donald (Smart) locked up for long time so the soon to be 28 yr old starting NT & ex DE Ethan Westbrooks might be trade bait for a trade for draft selections or utilized as an value attachment to any move ups trades in the Rams draft rounds to go get your desired player during the draft. Tavon Autsin, Rob Quinn & Mark Barron are other same like Rams that can be used in this fashion.

 

[Ram65]

Well, the Vikes defense mattered because without it they are not playing at home in that game and maybe not playing in that game at all. As for the game itself, their D allowed them to jump out to a 17-0 lead, and sure they eventually have that lead up, but again without that D that game is not that close and again likely not played in Minnesota if at all. So their D put them in position to have a chance.

If the Ram D was better, maybe the Rams have more margin for error and can overcome the turnovers against Atlanta the way the Eagles did? Or they win that one one two extra games during the season ( Eagles/ Redskins) and they get a bye and a better match up.

I never stated the Vikings defense did not matter.

I was playing around with the defensive points allowed and noticed the LA Chargers were at 17 points allowed during the year yet didn't even make the playoffs. This includes playoffs. They would have been 3rd without the playoffs. Still having a defense ranked near the top doesn't guarantee the playoffs. In 2014-15 the Patsies points allowed were 7th at 19.5 and they won the Super Bowl. Belicheat is a great defensive coach as we all know. Teams need all three phases of the game working

.https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game?date=2018-01-21

I agree the Rams defense has to get better but, so does the Rams offense.

There are lot's of concerns for me about this Rams off season. They have been discussed many times concerning free agent resigns, possible cuts of high priced players in Quinn and Barron as well as Aaron Donald's contract. We could see a lot of big changes in the defense. Hopefully, they can get better even a little bit better. I agree the Rams need to draft defense. I don't know about a big jump for 2018. I do think the Rams offense can get better. Simply put another year together and a years worth of experience all around should improve the offensive.

 

[Raptorman]

Chargers didn't make it because of the teams they lost too. They lost the tiebreaker on conference games. Their biggest problem was starting 0-4. Had they even split those games they would have made the playoffs. 3 of those first four losses were by 2 points, 3 points and 2 points. You have to win the close ones.