fearsomefour
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PFF Tweet: Lowest INT Rate Under Pressure
- Thread starter Merlin
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fearsomefour
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nighttrain
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he was a league leader in passes completed between 20 and 40 yards, so i dont know about your comment
train
fearsomefour
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20-40 yards?
A 21 yards pass is not a deep ball.
I talking about Fo routes, throwing deep, bombs....whatever you want to call them. Not a 25 yards cross with a 15 yards run.
He was not accurate throwing deep. Often over throwing open guys or under throwing Watkins. A deep throw can have positive effect without being complete of course, but, he was not very good throwing them last year. Some of that may be on the WRs too.
Legatron4
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LesBaker
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It's also because he was reading defenses better. Pre and post snap. He got better and you could tell by watching his head go back and forth as he was scanning the field. He made strides this year and will only get better.
Yes and no. He did have some bad deep passes, but a few good ones too.
According to his splits he is 2-8 in the 31-40 range (ball travelling in the air) for a rating of 28 and 1 INT and no TD's.
But in the 41+ yard he is 3-7 (which is very good) for 2TD's, no INT's and a 129 rating.
We talked about this during the year. He was inconsistent to say the least, all over the board. He dropped in some beauties and floated some ducks. The best of the year was the bomb to Woods against the Texans. That was thrown with a guy in his face.
It was a combo of timing and arm strength in my opinion. He will improve both of those things.
One thing he wasn't very good at last year that I noticed early in the year was his touch on short passes and especially how well he was leading Gurley when he went to him. Even when the pocket was collapsing he held it for that extra split second and feathered it in to Gurley on the run.
LesBaker
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That's McVay's philosophy too. He pounds that message into the players heads.
It got through to Goff, the Rams had the fewest INT's in the NFL.
But they also tied for the lead with 14 fumble turnovers.
Some work thee to do, but I have faith. I think 4 or 5 of those were on Austin though. He's always had a problem holding onto the ball. Like Az-Hakim when he got the ball both teams held their breath.
fearsomefour
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So what?
fearsomefour
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majrleaged
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True he did make some great throws on the run, but he was way less accurate and was off the mark a lot as well. He just needs to work on it and be more consistent.
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The most Underated thing about Goff was the way he & The Offensive Lineman worked there counts.
So many times he would draw the defense offsides !! It makes such a huge difference than the past with like say Bulger & Bradford going 5 yards the Wrong Way !!
1st & 5 vs 1st & 15
McVay & Kromer do a good job off coaching , but Goff has Great QB presence .
Jared Goff is So Confident !! I saw a(Super Bowl ? ) commercial where he said wait until next year . He has the drive to be Great ! I believe he will give The Rams a discount(which is still high $$$) to stay with the team.
Weather or not Goff will be great is a question mark , but he is a excellent student of the game.
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I remember seeing his college clips and thinking that was the most impressive aspect of his game--throwing/playing under duress. He had a terrible OL in front of him.
There were times when I was screaming, "get rid of it!" because he seemed so nonchalant back there; but he was just cool under the gun.
He showed a LOT of improvement over year 1 and he made enough huge plays that I'm confident the Rams have a their franchise QB.
I am looking forward to him developing that chemistry with certain receivers as they play together for a few seasons. Some of the throws on the run, badly thrown deep balls will end up being completions.
There were times when I was screaming, "get rid of it!" because he seemed so nonchalant back there; but he was just cool under the gun.
He showed a LOT of improvement over year 1 and he made enough huge plays that I'm confident the Rams have a their franchise QB.
I am looking forward to him developing that chemistry with certain receivers as they play together for a few seasons. Some of the throws on the run, badly thrown deep balls will end up being completions.
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I actually expect his TD to INT ratio to get a little worse next year. He will be more confident in the offense after another camp, and so I expect him to start putting up contested catches a bit more with that added experience. It should result in more INTs here and there, but should also improve some other areas for him.
McVay needs to be careful with the combination of Watkins and the current TE group. There needs to be improvement and the only spot that is likely to come from is Everett. If Watkins leaves it's a huge concern, because they won't find anyone like him in FA and the position is weak in the draft.
IMO Les needs to ensure there is enough receiving talent to allow for growth for Jared. That's extremely important.
McVay needs to be careful with the combination of Watkins and the current TE group. There needs to be improvement and the only spot that is likely to come from is Everett. If Watkins leaves it's a huge concern, because they won't find anyone like him in FA and the position is weak in the draft.
IMO Les needs to ensure there is enough receiving talent to allow for growth for Jared. That's extremely important.
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-jared-goff
Metrics that Matter: Jared Goff's line-aided fantasy improvements
BY SCOTT BARRETT
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
The Los Angeles Rams just executed an unparalleled offensive turnaround. The Rams went from worst in points per game under Jeff Fisher in 2016 (14.0) to first under Sean McVay (29.9). In 2016, Todd Gurley averaged 3.18 yards per carry, the fifth-worst rate among all instances of a running back totaling at least 275 carries in a single season.
In 2017 Gurley won AP’s Offensive Player of the Year Award. In 2016, Jared Goff averaged 2.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, which was the second-lowest rate by any quarterback this past decade. In 2017, he led the league by the same metric.
From a fantasy perspective, Goff was 35th of 36 qualified quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2016, then 11th of 40 in 2017. Gurley went from 24th (of 77) to first (of 79) by a wide margin.
This was an impressive turnaround and McVay deserves a ton of the credit — while Fisher might be deserving of even more blame — but there were a few other extenuating circumstances that aided in Los Angeles’ offensive turnaround. Focusing specifically on the passing game, we can point to the offseason acquisitions of Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp, as well as an expanded passing-down role for Gurley.
Perhaps an even bigger free agency signing was in left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who in 2017 graded out as one of our top-five left tackles for the fourth consecutive season. He replaced Greg Robinson, who was our third-worst-graded left tackle in 2016.
Each year I like to go back and spend some time analyzing my biggest “hits” and “misses” from the previous season. I was much higher on Watkins than Woods, which turned out to bite me, but I’m not really faulting myself for having Watkins ranked higher when he outscored Woods by 98 fantasy points in six fewer games during their time together in Buffalo.
I was far too low on Gurley, but higher than most, citing McVay’s desire to use him more in the passing game in 2017. Goff, however, I had ranked as one of my lowest quarterbacks, and I was dead wrong. McVay whispering sweet nothings audibles into his ears pre-snap surely helped, but one reason for the jump in production was probably one I should have seen coming.
My data suggest that Goff’s offensive line play in 2016 was the worst of any quarterback that year and the worst for any quarterback in the six seasons prior. In 2017, it was well above average.
In the case of Goff and his fantasy resurgence, many had written off Goff as a bust given his woeful efficiency numbers and production in his rookie year, but much of this can be explained by historically poor offensive line play. As for who helped Goff most in lifting him into the QB1 tier for fantasy, I’m not sure.
Part of it what Sean McVay (likely most of it), part of it was the upgraded receiving corps, part of it was Gurley’s improved play, and part of it was the improved offensive line play. Luckily for Goff, all of the pieces should be in place again in 2018, with the lone exception being (possibly) Watkins.
Of course his high efficiency numbers (especially in relation to 2016) scream regression, but (especially after everything we’ve uncovered here) I’m optimistic he returns to QB1 status in 2018, ranking him 11th overall at the position.
We can measure pass blocking in myriad ways (pass-blocking grade per dropback or our pass-blocking effiency metric), but my preferred method (and not an original concept) is by contrasting a quarterback’s pressure ratewith their average time to throw. (All of these metrics are now available to subscribers.)
In the below chart, where the y-axis is a quarterback’s pressure rate (pressures per dropback) and the x-axis is his average time to throw (in seconds), the more upper-left a quarterback landed, the worst their offensive line play was in that season. This chart looks at all quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in a single season since 2011.
Beyond this, I developed an expected pressure rate (by time to throw) and contrasted that with a quarterback’s actual pressure rate, to find who had the best and worst seasons within our sample.
Goff’s 2016 pressure rate over expectation fell behind only Tom Savage’s 2017, while Peyton Manning’s 2012 was best in our sample, followed by Aaron Rodgers’ 2014.
It’s no surprise Manning’s 2012 and Rodgers’ 2014 were two of the greatest quarterback seasons ever, let alone within our sample. Over the past decade, the average passer rating when pressured is 98.5, while, on average, the passer rating from a clean pocket is 73.3. Although Denver led the league in team pass-block grade in 2012, Manning likely deserves some individual credit.
He has a career 0.032 sack-to-attempt ratio, which is the best of any quarterback since the NFL merger (1970). While he was never a particularly mobile quarterback (to say the least), his ability to read, react, and adjust at the line of scrimmage is unparalleled. McVay certainly helped Goff in this regard last season, as alluded to earlier.
It’s also no surprise Savage ranked so poorly. Houston ranked last in team pass-block grade in 2017, and was especially bad when Duane Brown was out of the lineup. Like with Manning, Savage also deserves some of the credit/blame, likely bringing some of these pressures on himself. Early last season, Evan Silva called Savage a “statuesque pocket sloth” and nothing could be more apt or hilarious.
Looking at our expected pressure rate vs. actual, here are the quarterbacks who benefited/suffered from the best/worst offensive line play. We might be able to project some natural regression at the extremes, but I think its greatest utility is in projecting positive or negative regression depending on who your team signs in free agency or the draft.
With some exceptions (Flacco and Mariota on the best, Watson on the worst), these lists show the importance of offensive line production on fantasy numbers. This offseason, when you see teams making strides to improve their line, you can expect it to help their running backs, but don’t forget the improvement to the quarterbacks as well.
BEST
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
3. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
WORST
1. Tom Savage, Houston Texans
2. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
3. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
4. Josh McCown, New York Jets
5. C.J. Beathard, San Francisco 49ers
Metrics that Matter: Jared Goff's line-aided fantasy improvements
BY SCOTT BARRETT
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
The Los Angeles Rams just executed an unparalleled offensive turnaround. The Rams went from worst in points per game under Jeff Fisher in 2016 (14.0) to first under Sean McVay (29.9). In 2016, Todd Gurley averaged 3.18 yards per carry, the fifth-worst rate among all instances of a running back totaling at least 275 carries in a single season.
In 2017 Gurley won AP’s Offensive Player of the Year Award. In 2016, Jared Goff averaged 2.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, which was the second-lowest rate by any quarterback this past decade. In 2017, he led the league by the same metric.
From a fantasy perspective, Goff was 35th of 36 qualified quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2016, then 11th of 40 in 2017. Gurley went from 24th (of 77) to first (of 79) by a wide margin.
This was an impressive turnaround and McVay deserves a ton of the credit — while Fisher might be deserving of even more blame — but there were a few other extenuating circumstances that aided in Los Angeles’ offensive turnaround. Focusing specifically on the passing game, we can point to the offseason acquisitions of Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp, as well as an expanded passing-down role for Gurley.
Perhaps an even bigger free agency signing was in left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who in 2017 graded out as one of our top-five left tackles for the fourth consecutive season. He replaced Greg Robinson, who was our third-worst-graded left tackle in 2016.
Each year I like to go back and spend some time analyzing my biggest “hits” and “misses” from the previous season. I was much higher on Watkins than Woods, which turned out to bite me, but I’m not really faulting myself for having Watkins ranked higher when he outscored Woods by 98 fantasy points in six fewer games during their time together in Buffalo.
I was far too low on Gurley, but higher than most, citing McVay’s desire to use him more in the passing game in 2017. Goff, however, I had ranked as one of my lowest quarterbacks, and I was dead wrong. McVay whispering sweet nothings audibles into his ears pre-snap surely helped, but one reason for the jump in production was probably one I should have seen coming.
My data suggest that Goff’s offensive line play in 2016 was the worst of any quarterback that year and the worst for any quarterback in the six seasons prior. In 2017, it was well above average.
In the case of Goff and his fantasy resurgence, many had written off Goff as a bust given his woeful efficiency numbers and production in his rookie year, but much of this can be explained by historically poor offensive line play. As for who helped Goff most in lifting him into the QB1 tier for fantasy, I’m not sure.
Part of it what Sean McVay (likely most of it), part of it was the upgraded receiving corps, part of it was Gurley’s improved play, and part of it was the improved offensive line play. Luckily for Goff, all of the pieces should be in place again in 2018, with the lone exception being (possibly) Watkins.
Of course his high efficiency numbers (especially in relation to 2016) scream regression, but (especially after everything we’ve uncovered here) I’m optimistic he returns to QB1 status in 2018, ranking him 11th overall at the position.
We can measure pass blocking in myriad ways (pass-blocking grade per dropback or our pass-blocking effiency metric), but my preferred method (and not an original concept) is by contrasting a quarterback’s pressure ratewith their average time to throw. (All of these metrics are now available to subscribers.)
In the below chart, where the y-axis is a quarterback’s pressure rate (pressures per dropback) and the x-axis is his average time to throw (in seconds), the more upper-left a quarterback landed, the worst their offensive line play was in that season. This chart looks at all quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in a single season since 2011.
Beyond this, I developed an expected pressure rate (by time to throw) and contrasted that with a quarterback’s actual pressure rate, to find who had the best and worst seasons within our sample.
Goff’s 2016 pressure rate over expectation fell behind only Tom Savage’s 2017, while Peyton Manning’s 2012 was best in our sample, followed by Aaron Rodgers’ 2014.
It’s no surprise Manning’s 2012 and Rodgers’ 2014 were two of the greatest quarterback seasons ever, let alone within our sample. Over the past decade, the average passer rating when pressured is 98.5, while, on average, the passer rating from a clean pocket is 73.3. Although Denver led the league in team pass-block grade in 2012, Manning likely deserves some individual credit.
He has a career 0.032 sack-to-attempt ratio, which is the best of any quarterback since the NFL merger (1970). While he was never a particularly mobile quarterback (to say the least), his ability to read, react, and adjust at the line of scrimmage is unparalleled. McVay certainly helped Goff in this regard last season, as alluded to earlier.
It’s also no surprise Savage ranked so poorly. Houston ranked last in team pass-block grade in 2017, and was especially bad when Duane Brown was out of the lineup. Like with Manning, Savage also deserves some of the credit/blame, likely bringing some of these pressures on himself. Early last season, Evan Silva called Savage a “statuesque pocket sloth” and nothing could be more apt or hilarious.
Looking at our expected pressure rate vs. actual, here are the quarterbacks who benefited/suffered from the best/worst offensive line play. We might be able to project some natural regression at the extremes, but I think its greatest utility is in projecting positive or negative regression depending on who your team signs in free agency or the draft.
With some exceptions (Flacco and Mariota on the best, Watson on the worst), these lists show the importance of offensive line production on fantasy numbers. This offseason, when you see teams making strides to improve their line, you can expect it to help their running backs, but don’t forget the improvement to the quarterbacks as well.
BEST
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
3. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
WORST
1. Tom Savage, Houston Texans
2. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
3. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
4. Josh McCown, New York Jets
5. C.J. Beathard, San Francisco 49ers
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Nice article and even nicer to see an analyst going back and grading himself like that. Because he fell into the BS that all the media did, where they completely disregarded not only Jared but the team in general because of previous failures. Truth is that there is turnover every season in this league, with teams rising and falling, but the "experts" inevitably only foresee the same exact results as the previous season. It's something that drives me effin crazy with these guys, the complete and utter inability to look deeper at a roster and coaching staff makeup than last season's results and actually BE an expert on the game in their prognostications.
But anyway.
One other note is that wrt QBs there can be significant deviation in the OL stats over a season based on how well he plays. Which is one of many reasons why the position is so coveted. That said, clearly GRob's performance the previous year and the OL at large in 2016 were not related to just Jared. And further, McVay's addition brought deeper understanding for the QB, outlets for most given situations that could be made in-time wrt the blitz, that enormously impacted line play in a positive fashion above and beyond the additions of Big Whit and Sully.
Great read though and thanks for putting that up!
