LT OR WR With The First Pick

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Robinson/Matthews OR Watkins With The First Pick


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Ramhusker

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If no trade down is available, I'd have to go with BPA and that is Clowney. I'd hate to take someone I'm going to play at Guard with the 2nd overall pick, especially when you have guys like Martin, Yankey, and Moses that will be available a little later that have shown the versatility to play both Guard and Tackle. Matter of fact, I'd target all three with the 2nd round picks gained with a couple of trade downs. Of course, Martin is going in the 1st.
 

Flash

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Smart man. Bradford has a career QB rating of 79 (QBR of 40) in 49 games and has completed less than 60% of his passes. He has turned the ball over 56 times compared to 59 TDs and averages less than 6.3 yards per completion. Add in the fact he is under the old CBA and costs 17 million a year and has been hurt and mediocre for the good part of 4 seasons with spurts of good and you guys are primed to grab his replacement and move on.
 

Ramifications

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Smart man. Bradford has a career QB rating of 79 (QBR of 40) in 49 games and has completed less than 60% of his passes. He has turned the ball over 56 times compared to 59 TDs and averages less than 6.3 yards per completion. Add in the fact he is under the old CBA and costs 17 million a year and has been hurt and mediocre for the good part of 4 seasons with spurts of good and you guys are primed to grab his replacement and move on.

Of course, a lot of that was compiled with teammates he no longer has, before OL and skill position upgrades.

How was he in 2013, which is closest in personnel to what we can expect in 2014? He had something like a 14/4 TD ratio, despite not having Stacy the first month, and breaking in new receiving weapons like Cook and rookie Austin. His QBR was close to top 10.

Matt Ryan was 4-12 last year, despite Julio playing 5 games, White about 12 and Gonz 16. Imagine if he had none of those WRs in his first four years. He would get hammered mercilessly. Welcome to Sam Bradford's world.
 
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Of course, a lot of that was compiled with teammates he no longer has, before OL and skill position upgrades.

How was he in 2013, which is closest in personnel to what we can expect in 2014? He had something like a 14/4 TD ratio, despite not having Stacy the first month, and breaking in new receiving weapons like Cook and rookie Austin. His QBR was close to top 10.

Matt Ryan was 4-12 last year, despite Julio playing 5 games, White about 12 and Gonz 16. Imagine if he had none of those WRs in his first four years. He would get hammered mercilessly. Welcome to Sam Bradford's world.

I thought we'd already established that playing behind 30 different O line starters 24 of which are no longer in the league and 25 different receivers doesn't have any effect on the development of a young QB? :unsure:
 

iced

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Jake Long - played at a pro bowl level, top 5 LT.

Receivers - nothing near a pro bowl nor even good enough to lead the team in yards - that went to a tight end...

gee , i wonder which is truly a bigger need in a division with 2 of the best corners in the league
 
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Jake Long - played at a pro bowl level, top 5 LT.

Receivers - nothing near a pro bowl nor even good enough to lead the team in yards - that went to a tight end...

gee , i wonder which is truly a bigger need in a division with 2 of the best corners in the league

If long is healthy game 1 I don't think there's much debate at all.
 

Flash

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Yeah, I hear ya. The big question is, what if he reverts back to his previous 3 years or gets hurt again? Looking at his season he did well against the worst teams and defenses in the league. He had a 10-1 TD/int ratio against Dallas, Jacksonville, and Atlanta. who ranked 32nd and a tie for 27th respectively and Houston gave up 428 points. He didn't play Seattle at all either. He had 4 TD/ 3 ints against Arizona, Carolina, and San Fran. If I am St. Louis I either take a LT or QB at 2 and don't look back. You need to keep him healthy for a full 16 games this year to see what you have moving forward.
 

BonifayRam

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Jake Long - played at a pro bowl level, top 5 LT.

Receivers - nothing near a pro bowl nor even good enough to lead the team in yards - that went to a tight end...

gee , i wonder which is truly a bigger need in a division with 2 of the best corners in the league

Rams have invested priceless draft selection treasure the last three drafts in this present Ram receiving unit. When you sink so much draft treasure.....what draft treasure?
2013 Draft selections
#1-First round #16
#2-Second round #46
#3-Third round #92
2012 Draft selections
#4-Second round #33
#5-fourth round #96
2011 Draft Selections
#6-Third round #78

Six draft sections= one 1st, two 2nd's, two 3rds & one 4th rounder & now the Rams want to draft another receiver with the 2nd overall selection in the draft? One that would be a reach @ #2?

Something has seriously gone wrong with the Rams drafting abilities & they may want to do like the US government pay someone else to do it....if that is the case.
 

Ramifications

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Yeah, I hear ya. The big question is, what if he reverts back to his previous 3 years or gets hurt again? Looking at his season he did well against the worst teams and defenses in the league. He had a 10-1 TD/int ratio against Dallas, Jacksonville, and Atlanta. who ranked 32nd and a tie for 27th respectively and Houston gave up 428 points. He didn't play Seattle at all either. He had 4 TD/ 3 ints against Arizona, Carolina, and San Fran. If I am St. Louis I either take a LT or QB at 2 and don't look back. You need to keep him healthy for a full 16 games this year to see what you have moving forward.

That is a thoughtful response, I appreciate it. I wouldn't sharpen my hoops skills playing against Billy Barty ( though he was reputedly a stupid dunker! :) ). I don't think you are cherry picking stats and confirmation bias data points, but I don't think I am either.

Again, the point is, his previous "form" was in large part a function of a heinous, nightmarish, looking through a kaleidoscope on mescaline with Hunter S. Thompson while on an out of control carousel like the denouement of Hitchcock's Strangers on a Train revolving cast of WRs and OL.

I put up a couple posts here, one was a historical look at his WRs, I can put up a link, but it was ugly. Also, in one of the supposedly bad seasons, 2011, STL was (by football outsiders stays, I think?) the most injured offense, not of that year, but DECADE.

Last year it was better. Surprise, surprise, he did better. What else would we expect. Will Ruan do better with a healthy Julio and White? Probably. Yes, Bradford did good against bad defenses. Do top QBs face bad defenses sometimes? Should we look to throw out their stats, too?

In the interest of balance and fairness, should we mention the stats that could have been added? Against ARI in the opener (good D), Cook has a certain TD punched out by Honey Badger inside the 5, in an early game Bradford threw a perfect 50 yard rainbow that clanged off Givens hands, in a later game, Austin and Quick both cost TDs due to drops. A logical response would be every team has a few drops, but if you add them up on a level playing field, does every QB have 18 TDs through six and a half games?

The NFC West is EASILY the most rugged, brutal division in the league (30-10 out of division record), while he didn't play SEA, he did play ARI and SF, those weren't soft teams. DAL was one of the most injured teams at the end of the year (Sean Lee a legit DPOY candidate if healthy, ended on IR), that should be accounted for that the defense they played not necessarily as bad as they later were due to attrition. Remember in 2012 the difference in the HOU defense when they had Cushing, the heart and soul of their defense, and when he was absent, it was like night and day, Cushing was still playing at that juncture in the season.

Already noted above, your analysis leaves out that Bradford did not have the benefit of their best RB in the first month (Stacy one carry?). In the few games he played with Stacy once they went to the run-centric offense, Bradford was reportedly #2 in the NFL (not sure if a JT, Bernie or Wagoner cite, or what stats they referenced).

After the CAR loss, I think they only lost one more non-divisional game. They destroyed IND and CHI, beat NO, all playoff teams, nearly beat SEA in STL. Clemens improved from a young team improving. Remember how incompetently Schotty employed Austin in the early going, with habitual one yard and squat in the teeth of the defense routes? When he finally used him creatively against IND, Bradford didn't get the benefit of that. He didn't play SEA, but he might have benefited from the same 200 yards rushing Clemens did. Or the 250+ yards rushing against CHI. Or the defense holding IND to 8 points. Etc. Etc. Etc.

The only reason to take a QB at 1.2 is if they have given up on Bradford, and they say they haven't, and I can understand why, as he was off to a career best started DESPITE handicaps of working with a new TE in Cook, Austin being a rookie, the incompetent usage, not having Bailey who is now a starter (Pettis is a plodder). He has failed to finish two seasons, but again, we have to look at the context of 2011. Three QBs went down, we're they all "injury prone", or did that speak to the horrid OL (themselves churned due to injury attrition), and has it improved? A torn ACL running out of bounds seems flukey, could have happened to anybody, I doubt if he has weaker knee ligaments relative to his peers?

Agree that we do need a QB, but not at 1.2. Fisher and Snead miscalculated and can't get caught with their pants down again, they need to upgrade the backup/developmental QB seat, which is why. I want Aaron Murray (or someone in that range, like McCarron or Boyd) day three.
 

Ramifications

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Austin is the only first round WR taken since Torry Holt nearly 15 years prior in 1999. Low third rounders and high fourth rounders like Pettis, Bailey and Givens are more like top 100 picks, not top 10 like Austin or possibly Watkins.

It would have been a catastrophic blunder to not take Calvin Johnson due to the earlier blundered top 10 WRs in rapid succession, Rogers and the two Williams. The earlier blunders were unfortunate, but compounding them would have been an even worse one.

That said, I prefer Robinson, but if gone, tough choice between Watkins and Matthews, and we don't have to decide until after free agency, where we will know far more about the state of our OL, and what we actually do or don't need. Guard is a big need, but they can be gotten later.
 

mr.stlouis

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After a trade down it's Watkins, easy. We got Long and Barks. FORGET LT!!!!
 

Rambitious1

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I Just don't think taking Watkins or any other top WR makes much difference if we don't solidify our O line.
 

Rambitious1

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Smart man. Bradford has a career QB rating of 79 (QBR of 40) in 49 games and has completed less than 60% of his passes. He has turned the ball over 56 times compared to 59 TDs and averages less than 6.3 yards per completion. Add in the fact he is under the old CBA and costs 17 million a year and has been hurt and mediocre for the good part of 4 seasons with spurts of good and you guys are primed to grab his replacement and move on.

Nope.
Sam's fine. He just needs a supporting cast.
 

Ramifications

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I Just don't think taking Watkins or any other top WR makes much difference if we don't solidify our O line.

That is where I'm at increasingly.

Wouldn't it be nice, for a change, for the next decade, instead of being a laughing stock, to be able to use the words/phrases, SEA & SF defense, gashed and blowed up in the same sentence. :)

This isn't a one year deal, we are trying to build a team that can compete with SEA and SF in the toughest division in the NFL. If we get Robinson this year, are we more likely to get a WR as good as Watkins in 2015, or conversely, if take Watkikns, a LT of the future and guard of the present as good as Robinson next season? Watkins is a stud, but Jeffery went in the mid-second and Patterson late first, and they both look like Pro Bowl caliber players to me. I don't see an OL as good as Robinson avail there? So that kind of answers the question for me.

The STL OL is old in spots (not Saffold, but most likely to leave, Barksdale is young, but free agent in 2015, Jones could start, but an unknown we have no idea if we can count on, can he stay healthy, he isn't battle tested let alone proven). Wells and Dahl are about 33, Long approaching 30 and returning from an ACL/MCL tear.

Maybe we are, in an ADD-ridden, instant gratification society, expecting too much, too soon from our young WRs. It is understandable, given the long sufferening STL fans as Martz, Linehan and Spags nosedived the personnel straight into the ground (and even subterranean realms). But realistically, it took us a long time to get bad, we won't get good overnight. Fisher and Snead have made mistakes (notably Quick and Pead), they do suffer in the comparison with SEA (but doesn't everybody who hasn't turned a team completely over in three years and built a dynasty - should we fire 31 other HCs? :) ), and they don't get an indefinite pass. But we do seem to be on an ascendant arc and trajectory, and it is important to remember the Rams were a historically bad 15-65. Millen's DET stint was something like .275 over seven years, the third worst in NFL history. We were sub-.200 for five years, for perspective, HAS to be one of the worst such stretches ever, probably in the history of all professional sports, not just pro football.

But I digress. I think Austin and Bailey will be a dynamic duo and future studs, and replicate their duelling receiving exploits from WV. Austin was misused, lost TDs from penalties of a young team's growing pains that is maturing around him, some uncharacteristic drops and scheme misuse. Not to mention Bradford missing more than half the season, and even most of the time WITH Bradford it was the now unrecognizable pre-Stacy and run-centric offense. In the consecutive games against IND and CHI, Austin's four 50+ yard TDs equaled something previously done only by two legendary Hall of Famers, Jim Brown and Gale Sayers, not bad company. Bailey is a cross between Hines Ward/Derrick Mason/Greg Jennings, and can average 4-6 receptions a game (65-90+) in his sleep, but he has deceptive short area burst and explosiveness (Brian Westbrook was ostensibly "slow", probably a 4.6 guy, but had one of the quickest first steps in the league... football isn't played in track shorts and in straight lines, and when he was stopping and starting, juking defenders out of their jocks, they were in his world) and can also be a deep threat, as well as underrated strength, toughness and RAC ability (see his ST prowess, and the reverse he ran in for a TD in one of his two starts?). His 25 TDs in 2012 were the third most in NCAA history, and beat Michael Westbrook's conference record. Austin, Bailey, Westbrook and Wes Welker were all groomed as a position coach, OC or HC by Dana Holgorsen, architect of the "Air Raid" passing attack. If we are going to throw, we can throw to these guys. Add in Cook, while flawed and not without his limitations and not a complete blocking TE, he could have been better used as a receiving weapon (we paid enough for him). He quietly set the franchise record for receiving at the TE position, and can improve with more reps to gain chemistry, timing and rapport with Bradford.

If we aren't going to throw for scheme reasons, getting Watkins to catch 3-4 balls a game isn't as helpful as Robinson blowing holes through SEA and SF like the Luftwaffe through the Polish cavalry for every offensive play! Acknowledged Watkins is a pure WR1 unlike Austin, and could command more receptions, but my contention is that Austin can do more than perhaps our collective imagination is accounting for, and there is a risk STL may not revert to GSOT form as much as some of us may like. Fisher likes to pound the ball. One of the first things he did as a HC was get Eddie George, and coupled with a good but not necessarily great QB in the late McNair (did have the great season in which he might have been co-MVP with Manning?), that was a recipe for success he rode to the Super Bowl (hi Kevin Dyson! :) ). He didn't draft OL in the first, but who would or need to when you inherit all time greats like Matthews and Munchak?

More potential, latent, untapped WR talent already on the roster as it is currently comprised are Quick and Givens. We don't need to count on them with Austin, Bailey and Cook, they should fill WR3/WR4 roles, maybe situational deep threat, red zone/boundary weapon roles. If they do hit, it is gravy and on the bonus plan. While it seems unlikely, what if Quick could be more Vincent Jackson than Jerome Simpson, and we never found out because we killed his reps opps one year too early. What if Givens can regain the form he flashed as a rookie, and 2013 was just a soph slump, and he can be a poor man's (OK destitute man's) Mike Wallace?

* It would be *NICE* to have Watkins (and maybe we can get Robinson and Watkins if we play our cards right?), but Fisher and Snead's predecessors ran the talent base down too far and too long, they inherited too many holes, sadly, sometimes you can't always get what you want (but as Mick Jagger said, you get what you need), we have to make some hard decisions.
 
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iced

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If long is healthy game 1 I don't think there's much debate at all.

you don't draft because of injury. Even if he misses the first 4 games, he's still going to be our starting Left Tackle for 3 more years.
 

iced

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Rams have invested priceless draft selection treasure the last three drafts in this present Ram receiving unit. When you sink so much draft treasure.....what draft treasure?
2013 Draft selections
#1-First round #16
#2-Second round #46
#3-Third round #92
2012 Draft selections
#4-Second round #33
#5-fourth round #96
2011 Draft Selections
#6-Third round #78

Six draft sections= one 1st, two 2nd's, two 3rds & one 4th rounder & now the Rams want to draft another receiver with the 2nd overall selection in the draft? One that would be a reach @ #2?

Something has seriously gone wrong with the Rams drafting abilities & they may want to do like the US government pay someone else to do it....if that is the case.

I'm still waiting to hear why our receiver's corps doesn't need an upgrade when the friggen tight end led the team in receiving.... and a first round rookie led the team in catches, and he played most of the time out of the slot , running short routes on top of it
 
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you don't draft because of injury. Even if he misses the first 4 games, he's still going to be our starting Left Tackle for 3 more years.

Will Sam still be our QB with whatever scrub replaces Long on the O line?