Ethan Westbrooks is either paying off PFF, or playing very well

[junkman]

My usual caveat with PFF stats, I know, you love them or hate them. That said...

Ethan Westbrooks AGAIN showed up at the top of the PFF lists against Cleveland (both as the top Rams player for the third consecutive week and one of the best in the NFL), impressing our frenemies at PFF with standout play. This is especially impressive to me because game 3 is the "dress rehearsal" game, and Westbrooks saw a LOT of 1st Qtr action against Cleveland, lining up again pretty much everywhere, taking what I believe to be every snap that the absent William Hayes would have taken. PFF had Westbrooks bucketed in as LDE, but #62 saw plenty of time over the RG, including on the famous Michael Sam sack of Manziel where #62 was double teamed from the B gap. (the A gap DT, Harlan, was singled up).

So OK, numbers. Westbrooks PFF number for the Cleveland game was +3.5 on 40 snaps (out of 56), mostly based on a +3.1 on pass rush. Add that on to the previous games, and Westbrooks is now +11.3 on the 3 preseason games in 113 snaps, including +6.8 on pass rush and +4.2 on run D. His penalty grade of +0.3 simply means that he didn't have any penaties on him at all. That is, he's not guessing the snap count and getting off-sides calls, he's patiently waiting for the snap and dominating post snap.

How good is this +11.3 number? Well, Westbrook's score of +11.3 is #1 for all 4-3 DEs where the #2 player is +6.5.

Looking at all other positions, the only player Westbrooks trails is Gerald McCoy who has an unreal curve-busting +16.5 in only 67 snaps.

Once you get past McCoy and Westbrooks... I see one score in the 8s, a few 7s...

~~~

So, what does this mean? Well, if you put any value whatsoever in PFFs ability to recognize players who are having an impact on the game, this is PFFs way of saying that Westbrooks is having a tremendous snap-in snap-out impact on the game. This is PFF's quantified effort to say that Westbrooks has been nigh unblockable in a way that stands out from almost every other player who has put on pads this pre-season.

For those that don't believe in PFF, watch the game again. What I saw, #62 was never blocked for long, even when double teamed. He shed his single blocks and influenced the plays, even if he didn't make the play himself. Westbrooks just does not look like a rookie to me.

Westbrook's competition?

- PFF only credited Sam with one sack. He was otherwise quiet in 20 snaps, and only got a +0.1 grade overall.

- Westbrook's possible other main competition, Alex Carrington, was -0.6 on the day, -4.4 on the pre-season

- Conrath didn't even play against Cleveland. My presumption is that he'll be gone on Saturday unless he does something amazing against Miami. And even then.... unlikely.

 

[-X-]

I don't need PFF to tell me he's playing well.

 

[ChrisW]

Fisher's staff sure can fine some steals on the defensive side of the ball.

Now if only he could do the same thing on the offense.

 

[Irish]

I think the last preseason game, it should be good sportsmanship for coaches to play their 1's against the other teams 3's and vice versa. I don't care how Westbrooks or Sam or Watts play against knuckledragging mouth breathers who aren't going to be in the league in a week, I want them to see real competition.

 

[junkman]

I don't need PFF to tell me he's playing well.

Aaron Donald is playing well. His PFF grade is +2.3.
EJ Gaines is playing well. His PFF grade is +1.7.

I don't need PFF to tell me about them either. But the +11.3 is noteworthy, that Westbrooks is playing well in a noteworthy way.

Ray Ray Armstrong is not playing well. His PFF grade for the pre-season is -8.3.

As with most things PFF, love them or hate them for whatever reason, the individual grades (which is the most raw and most useful part of their IP) tend to agree with what people would naturally think at the end of the day.

 

[Sum1]

I don't love nor hate PFF...just another tool to look at. Sometimes it backs up what your eyes are telling you, other times it's missing something.

To me PFF is similar to baseball saber-metrics with the WAR stat.

 

[junkman]

I think the last preseason game, it should be good sportsmanship for coaches to play their 1's against the other teams 3's and vice versa. I don't care how Westbrooks or Sam or Watts play against knuckledragging mouth breathers who aren't going to be in the league in a week, I want them to see real competition.

My belief on Westbrooks is that starting with the 2nd game against Green Bay, Westbrooks has been taking the William Hayes role, and doing it well. I give him full credit for that.

 

[Irish]

I don't love nor hate PFF...just another tool to look at. Sometimes it backs up what your eyes are telling you, other times it's missing something.

To me PFF is similar to baseball saber-metrics with the WAR stat.

But WAR, while flawed, has it's place in baseball. Advanced metrics and statistics in football are not near as precise (case and point: ESPNs preposterous weighted QBR stat)

 

[Sum1]

But WAR, while flawed, has it's place in baseball. Advanced metrics and statistics in football are not near as precise (case and point: ESPNs preposterous weighted QBR stat)

Yeah, I'm not disputing that. I'm just saying that PFF rankings is a good tool but isn't always a precise picture of a players performance. Same with WAR. There is always a number of situations where player A has a better WAR than player B, but everyone knows that player B is a better player.

 

[CoachO]

Again, how is this accurate? You openly acknowledge that Westbrooks has lined up inside and outside. He has lined up at LDE, and RDE. But yet, he is simply rated against all other 4-3 LDE? So if he was "graded and ranked" at the position he is actually lined up, his rankings wouldn't be what they are trying to convince you they are. You say McCoy is higher rated, and if you compare Westbrooks at DT with him, how does he fair?


"- PFF only credited Sam with one sack. He was otherwise quiet in 20 snaps, and only got a +0.1 grade overall"

So they completely disregard "Official stats" and make up their own? How convenient! Again, you can try to sell this all you want. I'm not buying!!!!!

One other question..... is the same analyst evaluating Sam and Westbrooks? If you are going to use their PFF grades as a comparison, then isn't is only fair if the same person is grading them? If not, regardless of the criteria they use, different analysts will have a different perspective on what they are watching.

All this does, is continue to tell me there are just too many inconsistencies with the whole PFF system. And yet, way too many who rely on it to tell them what they are supposed to think.

 

[Yamahopper]

So seriously guys how long can Quinn hold off Westbrooks for the starting job.
I don't always agree with PFF but they are consistent and consistent is all we can ask. Every media source or team stats will vary on numbers. So just pick one and ignore the rest.

 

[ChrisW]

Again, how is this accurate? You openly acknowledge that Westbrooks has lined up inside and outside. He has lined up at LDE, and RDE. But yet, he is simply rated against all other 4-3 LDE? So if he was "graded and ranked" at the position he is actually lined up, his rankings wouldn't be what they are trying to convince you they are. You say McCoy is higher rated, and if you compare Westbrooks at DT with him, how does he fair?


"- PFF only credited Sam with one sack. He was otherwise quiet in 20 snaps, and only got a +0.1 grade overall"

So they completely disregard "Official stats" and make up their own? How convenient! Again, you can try to sell this all you want. I'm not buying!!!!!

One other question..... is the same analyst evaluating Sam and Westbrooks? If you are going to use their PFF grades as a comparison, then isn't is only fair if the same person is grading them? If not, regardless of the criteria they use, different analysts will have a different perspective on what they are watching.

All this does, is continue to tell me there are just too many inconsistencies with the whole PFF system. And yet, way too many who rely on it to tell them what they are supposed to think.

It does show that he is paying well though, right?

Also, I do agree it's suspect not to credit Sam with his two sacks even when they are official. You can't make up your own numbers when they have been made official by the league.

 

[Fatbot]

I've been impressed with Westbrooks but only watched the latest game for the first time yesterday thanks to the Browns/NFL network chick fight (and of course NFL network cut out a big chunk of game time -- apparently their commercials but not the Browns are still more important than play). One snap of note was a Browns sweep, the Rams DE got hooked and it went for a big gain, and it was Westbrooks. I will go back and watch his other action that I can, but that was a huge negative play whether or not PFF says so.

 

[CoachO]

It does show that he is paying well though, right?

Also, I do agree it's suspect not to credit Sam with his two sacks even when they are official. You can't make up your own numbers when they have been made official by the league.

I don't have as big of an issue with them assigning a grade on a players performance. Although, to beat this to death, I just don't know how some one sitting at a computer monitor, not knowing what the actual assignment within the play call is for EVERY player on EVERY PLAY, can objectively place a grade on guys. When professional coaches can look at an opponents game film, and tell you they have no idea most of the time. It's the rather arbitrary way they use the "rankings" and compare them to players who have different roles, but may play the same position, (part of the time).

For example, to try to compare what Michael Brockers does in this defense, with what Aaron Donald will be asked to do, just doesn't make sense. To grade William Hayes solely as a LDE, when half of his snaps may be lined up as a pass rushing DT, skews the rankings. Donald may be on the field strictly on passing downs, so his "stats against the run" will suffer. And Brockers may not be on the field at all in pure passing downs, so his pass rush opportunities are not accurate. But, they always have to assign an overall grade and ranking to each category.

I don't need to have an abstract manipulated statistical ranking tell me that William Hayes is a valuable and productive player. Or that Eugene Westbrooks is having a good preseason. But somehow I am supposed to believe he is THE BEST LDE in the NFL off of 3 preseason games? When he has taken maybe 35% of his overall snaps at that position.

 

[junkman]

Again, how is this accurate? You openly acknowledge that Westbrooks has lined up inside and outside. He has lined up at LDE, and RDE. But yet, he is simply rated against all other 4-3 LDE? So if he was "graded and ranked" at the position he is actually lined up, his rankings wouldn't be what they are trying to convince you they are. You say McCoy is higher rated, and if you compare Westbrooks at DT with him, how does he fair?.

I explained this before. PFF buckets players so you can compare them to similar players. You don't think it's precise to lump his DT snaps with his DE snaps? That's your prerogative. Someone else might not thing it's precise to compare DE snaps when you rush the edge vs rush inside. Or rush on the side with a TE.

I get it, you don't like PFF stats. But if you disagree, stop complaining about their methods over and over. Tell me what YOU think about Westbrook's performance. From where I sit, if you think his performance was anything less than EXCELLENT, then you've lost my respect.

"- PFF only credited Sam with one sack. He was otherwise quiet in 20 snaps, and only got a +0.1 grade overall"

So they completely disregard "Official stats" and make up their own? How convenient! Again, you can try to sell this all you want. I'm not buying!!!!!

One other question..... is the same analyst evaluating Sam and Westbrooks? If you are going to use their PFF grades as a comparison, then isn't is only fair if the same person is grading them? If not, regardless of the criteria they use, different analysts will have a different perspective on what they are watching.

All this does, is continue to tell me there are just too many inconsistencies with the whole PFF system. And yet, way too many who rely on it to tell them what they are supposed to think.

There were 4 guys on top of Manzeil on that last play. Regardless of who gets official credit, Sam was not more responsible for the sack than others. Imho, PFF is right to make that assertion.

 

[junkman]

PS - Peter King noticed Westbrooks and his PFF score.

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/08/26/michael-sam-st-louis-rams-roster-spot-mailbag/

Sam the Ram? Roster Spot Not Yet Locked Up
Michael Sam has outperformed expectations for St. Louis at camp. But the NFL's first openly gay player might be headed to the practice squad instead of the 53-man roster due to the equally impressive play of another long-shot prospect

By
Peter King
· More from Peter·
Michael Sam has beaten the odds before, and he’ll probably have to do it again to make the Rams’ 53-man roster. Entering the Rams’ final preseason game Thursday night at Miami, the most likely scenario is for Sam, the first openly gay player trying to make an NFL roster, to begin the season on the club’s 10-man practice squad, not the team’s active roster.

Likely, but definitely not certain. Sam has played well in the first three preseason games, and if that continues Thursday night with a very good pass-rushing performance, he may force coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead to keep one more defensive lineman than they would have envisioned at the start of training camp, and to go lighter at another position group on the active roster. It’s going to be a close call when Snead, Fisher and their staff sit down Friday to pare down the roster.

This is not about what Sam, the seventh-round defensive end from Missouri, hasn’t done. It’s about what free-agent defensive lineman Ethan Westbrooks from West Texas A&M has done—and about the depth of the St. Louis defensive line. The Rams came to camp with a solid core of eight defensive linemen likely to make the roster, and planning to keep either eight, nine or 10 on the final roster. The solid eight are still solid. Westbrooks charged into the lead for the ninth spot early in camp and has been outstanding in practices and games. Sam is a worthy challenger. Keeping 10 would be a stretch, but Sam’s play has now made that a tough call.

Sam has three sacks and three more pressures or quarterback hits in his 82 snaps during the preseason, and he’s out-performed what the Rams had projected for him—in part because he’s quicker off the edge at 257 now than he was at 270 as a college player last fall. When the preseason began the prevailing feeling was there was probably one spot on St. Louis’s deep defensive line for a prospect, and perhaps one on the practice squad. Westbrooks has one sack and seven hits or pressures.

Rams defensive end Ethan Westbrooks has been tenacious in his pursuit of quarterbacks this preseason. (Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Early in camp, the three leading candidates were Westbrooks, Sam, and second-year defensive end Sammy Brown, an undrafted free agent from the University of Houston in 2012. Westbrooks got unprecedented money when he signed his free-agent contract, leading many to believe it was he, not Sam, whom some in the Rams’ organization wanted to take with the 249th pick in the May draft. But Sam was the selection, and the undrafted Westbrooks was signed very soon after the seventh round ended. The Rams gave Westbrooks a $20,000 signing bonus (very high for an undrafted player) and a $30,000 salary guarantee. The $50,000 in guarantees was actually more than Sam’s $45,896. That was the first clue as to how much the Rams valued Westbrooks coming into camp.

More Rams: The MMQB’s St. Louis training camp page

According to NFL analytics website Pro Football Focus, Westbrooks is the highest-rated 4-3 defensive end in the NFL this preseason. That has to be taken in context, because he’s played against the lesser lights in much of his game action so far. But Sam has too. Westbrooks has quickness and a power move that the Rams think can translate to the NFL game. He dominated at the lower level of college ball, getting 26.5 sacks and 19 more tackles for loss in the 2012 and ’13 seasons at West Texas A&M. He’s stronger than Sam, and right now the coaching staff appears to favor him for a spot on the final 53-man roster.

But this is a fluid story, and things could change based on performances Thursday night. It’s a huge game for Westbrooks and Sam.

Sam’s play has been strong enough to merit keeping him on the 53-man roster. If the Rams decide to waive him in the cutdown from 75 to 53 Saturday and try to bring him back to the practice squad on Sunday night or Monday, Sam would first be eligible to be claimed by any of the other 31 teams in the league. I doubt another team would claim him—that’s nothing but a gut feeling. My guess is he’d end up on the Rams’ practice squad, and either be a regular practice player honing his craft and waiting for an injury to a defensive end, or practicing and getting ready for a presumed invitation to Rams’ training camp in 2015.

There’s not much drama, ever, in final preseason games, which are used by most teams to determine the last few spots on the roster. But in St. Louis, every snap for Sam and Westbrooks will be watched closely—and should be. An active roster spot could be up for grabs if Sam plays extremely well against the Dolphins. Remember, injuries are also a factor when rosters are cut, as is special-teams play. So watch it all for the Rams in Miami.

 

[ChrisW]

I don't have as big of an issue with them assigning a grade on a players performance. Although, to beat this to death, I just don't know how some one sitting at a computer monitor, not knowing what the actual assignment within the play call is for EVERY player on EVERY PLAY, can objectively place a grade on guys. When professional coaches can look at an opponents game film, and tell you they have no idea most of the time. It's the rather arbitrary way they use the "rankings" and compare them to players who have different roles, but may play the same position, (part of the time).

For example, to try to compare what Michael Brockers does in this defense, with what Aaron Donald will be asked to do, just doesn't make sense. To grade William Hayes solely as a LDE, when half of his snaps may be lined up as a pass rushing DT, skews the rankings. Donald may be on the field strictly on passing downs, so his "stats against the run" will suffer. And Brockers may not be on the field at all in pure passing downs, so his pass rush opportunities are not accurate. But, they always have to assign an overall grade and ranking to each category.

I don't need to have an abstract manipulated statistical ranking tell me that William Hayes is a valuable and productive player. Or that Eugene Westbrooks is having a good preseason. But somehow I am supposed to believe he is THE BEST LDE in the NFL off of 3 preseason games? When he has taken maybe 35% of his overall snaps at that position.

I know you don't like stats as the end all be all. I remember from RamStalk that was the biggest difference between you and Hammer. Hammer loves his stats, and you are much more traditional.

All, I asked though was that it does reflect that he's playing well, does it not?

 

[TexasRam]

We all love Westy and clearly he has earned some snaps come regular season.

But let's keep in mind two things:

1. Sample size is a few preseason games

2. The competition are mostly backups

Westy may be the next big thing or
He may be the next Damione Lewis.

 

[CoachO]

I explained this before. PFF buckets players so you can compare them to similar players. You don't think it's precise to lump his DT snaps with his DE snaps? That's your prerogative. Someone else might not thing it's precise to compare DE snaps when you rush the edge vs rush inside. Or rush on the side with a TE.

I get it, you don't like PFF stats. But if you disagree, stop complaining about their methods over and over. Tell me what YOU think about Westbrook's performance. From where I sit, if you think his performance was anything less than EXCELLENT, then you've lost my respect.



There were 4 guys on top of Manzeil on that last play. Regardless of who gets official credit, Sam was not more responsible for the sack than others. Imho, PFF is right to make that assertion.

No, I don't think its right they they lump his grades from his snaps at DT into his rankings as a DE. If he is playing two different positions, then he should have two different grades, and be ranked accordingly. They compile stats for every thing else, why can't they break it out by the actual position he is playing?

Of course I think Westbrooks has played, well, but would NEVER even begin to suggest he is the BEST DE on the field. And to say he has graded that much higher than Quinn, or Long or Sam for that matter just proves my point.

 

[junkman]

No, I don't think its right they they lump his grades from his snaps at DT into his rankings as a DE. If he is playing two different positions, then he should have two different grades, and be ranked accordingly. They compile stats for every thing else, why can't they break it out by the actual position he is playing?

Maybe they do and I just don't get that level of stats. The stat I consider most interesting is "impact on the game" (aka total score) regardless of which gap they are covering, which is why I suppose it's the most frequently quoted stat. People don't usually move around as much as Hayes or Westbrooks. If PFF broke it down by position play by play, the "score per snap" would be essential in a comparison.

Of course I think Westbrooks has played, well, but would NEVER even begin to suggest he is the BEST DE on the field. And to say he has graded that much higher than Quinn, or Long or Sam for that matter just proves my point.

Actually, it only proves how little you understand PFF stats. The high grade does not say he was the best DE on the field. It says that if you total up plus and minus grades for the snaps he played against the competition he faced, he did better relatively than the other DEs on the field.

What's the difference you might ask? Well...

1) Quinn and Long played against #1s. Westbrooks mostly didn't. In the regular season, that's much less of an issue because over the course of a season the competition levels should even out in theory. But in the case where your competition is especially tough like the Rams in 2013, that theoretical evening out doesn't happen, and your PFF grades suffer for it (as have Rams PFF grades). This is a known weakness of PFF and why you have to think when you look at their stats.

But this is really true of all stats, not just PFF.

As a comparison point, look at something as objective as batting average in baseball. People are compared in different divisions, different leagues, different eras by batting average. Strength of competition always has an impact. But if you combined the rosters of a baseball pro team and their AAA team, played innings 1-4 with pros vs pros and 5-9 AAA vs AAA, each hitter would still have a batting average. But you would not conclude that a AAA hitter (facing AAA pitching) was the best hitter on the field.

Same thing here with Westbrooks vs Quinn. I'm much more impressed with Quinn's +2.3 in 15 snaps against Joe Thomas (all 1st half) than I am with Westbrooks and his +3.5 in 40 snaps that went all through the game. Why? Well... 'cuz we know that Joe Thomas is a stud. If you didn't realize that, you need look no farther than his PFF grade which tells us he was the #2 rated LT in the league last year.

If you want to use the PFF grades in the pre-season to compare Westbrooks and Sam... that's an even enough comparison which actually should favor Sam who got most of his snaps later in the game.

2) PFF scores like golf (except upside down where + grades are better in PFF). If you're playing well, the more holes you play, the better your score relative to par. If you're playing poorly, the more holes you play, the worse you score relative to par.

So again, looking at the Cleveland game, Quinn's +2.3 on 15 snaps is better on a per-snap basis than Westbrooks and his +3.5 on 40.

~~~

The real point here is that Westbrooks is playing lights out. You don't have to like PFF stats to acknowledge this. It just helps (me) that PFF quantifies these things. When the numbers are this strong, if you didn't see it the first time, it's worth a 2nd look.