Okay. I think people are missing the point and I don't know why.
This is all about the patterns (yep, it's genetic. My son's high functioning autistic and he takes my pattern stuff exponentially farther)
If, as the patterns of behavior suggest, AD isn't happy with the contract, why? Well, the offer was to be close to the highest paid defender in the NFL. With the increasing cap, I can't see a few million dollars over six years being an impediment. The Rams are creative enough with the cap to work that out. So what could have caused such difficulty that AD held out ALL of the offseason?
When filtering the possible permutations (there aren't a lot), the ONLY thing that makes any sense based on the theory that "people tend to act rationally based on their own self-interest" (I made that up, I think...) is that AD was looking for contract language that the Rams are unwilling to adopt. The terms including things like guarantees for top-flight defenders is pretty standard at this point, so minor deviations aren't an issue.
WHY is AD's contract a problem, then?
Well, based on some research, the ONE issue that teams simply won't do again is the 3-year opt-out. And with AD having been so underpaid for the last few seasons, if his reps think the cap will go up on the next TV deal (something that I feel is not certain with the current decline in viewership and lack of accounting for streaming ad revenues), then AFTER the next TV deal, the Rams would have to deal with a certain opt-out and ANOTHER megadeal right as Goff is going to need to be paid and likely right after Gurley has gotten paid. The Rams are simply not going to do it. They're willing to pay AD once for a massive 6 year contract. A 3-year opt-out sets up AD to be paid twice with the Rams having no point where AD's cap hit is manageable.
This is a scenario that fits everything that's happened. Rams are willing to pay him...once. But that's it.
If AD INSISTS on a 3-year opt-out, which is the pinnacle of a type of contract detail that would be a hard no from any team at this point, then we are ALREADY at the point where the Rams are looking at the exit.
Meaning, if AD wants that opt-out and THAT'S what he held out for, then he's ALREADY gone. ALREADY.
The ONLY question is if the Rams stick with his 5th year option and then Tag him twice... OR... if some team makes them an offer they can't refuse.
I, personally, would LOVE to cheer for AD until he retires in 10+ years as the GOAT defender and guy like Merlin Olsen who only ever played with the Rams and then wears the Gold jacket proudly as only ever having been a Ram.
Point is in observing these patterns is that *I don't choose*. This isn't about a preference. This is about what I see as likely to happen based on data, past behaviors and future behaviors using the model of current parameters.
Now, might he change his mind now that he's played for Wade and sees that McVay has the Rams set up to be winners for a long time?
Yeah, that's possible. The opt-out may have been a mechanism from a winner who wasn't willing to play his entire career for a Jeff Fisher losing team.
So, the most optimistic outlook is that because of our current and projected future success, the NEED for such an opt-out clause may not be there anymore and AD may feel free to sign a more traditional contract.
If not, then the only question is 'how does this end'?
As much as I HOPE, HOPE, HOPE for the optimistic outlook, I have to recognize that it may not be what happens. In that event, the subsequent events follow a bifurcated path... either Tags and leave or be traded.
Hope this clears it up.
