Carson Wentz vs. Jared Goff: Who is the better pick in the 2016 NFL Draft?

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Mackeyser

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I'm gonna have to quibble with you. Engineers do this...

Physics. Zip would mean that the path of the ball would be a function closely resembling a curve as defined by a simple mathematical function. In this case, it's a parabola. Ignore the kicker. It's late...
PARABOLA-e1381282310779.jpg


Zip would mean a curve like this one, but flatter, meaning that the angle of inclination and declination would closely resemble one another and the apex would be close to the midpoint of the flightpath.

That is NOT what happens with Goff's throw.

His throw resembles this:
CannonBallTrajectoryWithAirResistance.png


The Apex is much further toward the end of the flightpath and the angle of inclination is much more shallow than the angle of declination. There's also a significant wobble at the very end if you watch closely.

But why? Several reasons.

Firstly, in order to throw the ball 57 yards in the air, he had to maximize his launch trajectory for maximum distance. I couldn't get a good enough view to narrow down the angle, but it's clear that the throw wasn't "on a rope". And, yes, we've seen QBs put throws 60 yards on a rope before. That doesn't disqualify Goff. Far from it. It just disqualifies this throw as being "zippy"

Secondly, there is insufficient rotational velocity to maintain flight integrity. Basically, he didn't spin it enough and it ducked at the end. THAT may be a function of small hands. (Warner used to do that all the time and I'm still mad he didn't get in the HoF this year) Even if he can sling it a bit, you really have to SPIN it in order to keep that bullet on target over long distance. That's simple ballistics. @bluecoconuts can I'm sure go into much more detail than I can about the details.

So, he threw a moderately spinning ball on an elevated path.

You wanna argue "zip" which is demonstrably untrue.

I'd argue that even with small hands which don't seem to allow him to spin the ball enough to properly throw balls 60 yards and even with that hitch which robs him of the power to throw balls 60 yards, he STILL used his timing, accuracy, body, henky throwing rhythm and footwork to hit a streaking receiver 57 yards downfield.

That's freaking impressive. I know I'm impressed.

He just didn't throw it with zip.
 

LumberTubs

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This thread is an example of why I bloody love this place. Different views being expressed intelligently and respectfully.

Hell, @Mackeyser is even throwing out words like 'stiction' and posting graphs. I love it.
 

jrry32

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@Mackeyser

I'm not one to argue with science so I'll concede the point to you.

Regardless, whether or not you want to qualify that as "zip," the video still shows that Goff's ball has more than enough oomph behind it to get down the field without hanging his receiver out to dry. That ball wasn't floating or hanging in the air. He's not throwing balloons out there. Which gets back to my point that he has the deep ball necessary to thrive in any NFL scheme.

You don't need to have Wentz's arm to be successful in more than the WCO.
 

Mackeyser

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No, you don't.

However, as I showed with the Manning pass which was a brilliant pass, a FS can really screw up a WRs day if that pass isn't slung in there right quick.

Now, the solution is to scheme the Safety(s) away or get the ball there before the Safety can get there. The longer the pass, the harder that is, cuz doods is fast.

If they take Goff, I'm sure they'll just make minor adjustments to the scheme. I don't think it will be the end of the world, but I do think especially with Gurley, you want a D that is thinking about over the top coverage. That's one less guy Gurley has to beat in the box.

The more we talk about this and more poker Les Snead plays with the media, the less idea I feel I have about what the heck is going on.

Is "loster" a word? Cuz I feel loster...
 

nighttrain

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ahhh , how many times in a game does a winning team have its QB make throws of all most 60 yards vs 15 to 30, the latter by far
train
 

jrry32

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No, you don't.

However, as I showed with the Manning pass which was a brilliant pass, a FS can really screw up a WRs day if that pass isn't slung in there right quick.

Okay. But again, Manning had a pop gun arm at that point in his career. It's not a close comparison. Philip Rivers and Drew Brees don't have stronger arms than Goff and yet they aren't getting their WRs blown up left and right. They aren't having issues throwing the deep ball.
 

RamBill

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Sal Paolantonio, Field Yates and Mark Dominik break down top quarterback prospects Carson Wentz, Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch. Dominik is concerned about Wentz making the jump from ND State to the NFL. He really likes Paxton Lynch. (2:31)

Watch QB Discussion
 

Mojo Ram

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Started watching all these QB's finally. Wentz is really impressive. I'd already seen alot of Goff and he looks like solid future pro but man, Wentz just jumps off the screen at you. The movement, the throws, the athleticism, and the fire. I think his ultra-competitive nature is going to be the difference with this guy. That's my #1 QB.
Rams really need to explore every avenue to try to land this kid somehow.
 

tahoe

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Started watching all these QB's finally. Wentz is really impressive. I'd already seen alot of Goff and he looks like solid future pro but man, Wentz just jumps off the screen at you. The movement, the throws, the athleticism, and the fire. I think his ultra-competitive nature is going to be the difference with this guy. That's my #1 QB.
Rams really need to explore every avenue to try to land this kid somehow.
I totally agree. Wentz has every trait that you look for in a QB and he has immense physical talent.
 

Merlin

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Rams really need to explore every avenue to try to land this kid somehow.

That means you want to move up to 1 overall then, Mojo. Because Cleveland is almost surely going to take him.
 

HitStick

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Trading up to 1, if the really want one of these guys, is the only way you can be certain to get them.

I'd give up a 1, 2, 1 next year, and Mason. Tennessee needs a runningback, and Mason has shown he can play. Plus, maybe Fisher gets a discount?
 

Merlin

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Id give up 2016 1st and 2nd, 2017 1st and 2nd, and 2018 2nd with the thought that these will now be late round picks anyways.

For the record I would pay that as well to ensure QB is good to go, and laugh all the way to the playoffs for the next decade.

But that said, I do think if the Rams offered 2x round 1 picks plus a round 2 from this year they'd have Tennessee listening. From there let them talk you into adding that other round 2 pick from next year and I suspect it would get done without needing that 2018 pick.
 

Merlin

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I'd give up a 1, 2, 1 next year, and Mason. Tennessee needs a runningback, and Mason has shown he can play. Plus, maybe Fisher gets a discount?

I'd sign off on that trade up too. :mrburnsevil:
 

Mackeyser

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Yeah, they say that there's no big time QBs in this draft, but if Wentz went to a big school, the Luck comparisons would be obvious and he'd be the consensus #1 QB taken, likely first overall.

I think with Wentz, the juice is worth the squeeze. It's a lot of squeeze, but it's a Luck level of juice. We win Super Bowls with that.