2020 Atlanta Falcons Defense

[Merlin]

Wanted to start a thread for putting things I come across as I look a bit deeper at what they were doing last season. So right out the gate Morris is a very interesting hire because he's the antithesis of Brandon Staley. Brandon ran a brilliant mix of defensive calls (probably the most Quarters or Cover 4 in the league with pre-snap disguising on top of that) that stood out from the rest of the league and dare I say wasn't really figured out until Green Bay in the playoffs. Now we did give up points in key games like for example Buffalo. But that was to my eye at least moreso due to the QB extending plays and making throws that were beyond most QBs' skill level to make, with some poor coverages by the Rams at times mixed in so I'm not sure that it was Staley moreso than the players. Green Bay we got beat by scheme in considerable part. IMO. But that's a different conversation.

Enter Atlanta who (as an antithesis of Staley) ran an extremely low amount of Cover 4. Which was Staley's bread and butter. Which is also our base approach in the secondary in 2020. They basically ran a shit ton of Cover 2 prevent and they ran it poorly. Cover 2 is considered archaic in the NFL for good reason, that being that teams will underneath your ass all day long and mash the run vs that light front. To run it you do need plus safeties who can get into the box on the fly, and a great MLB doesn't hurt either lol. You also need team tackling and they sure as F didn't have that. Now Jones is one of those MLBs who can go apeshit in a given game (like he did vs us in the playoffs in '17), but overall he's light in the pants and not a guy with good physicality. Their secondary at large was quite bad, particularly given that they don't have a lot of skill at breaking on the ball it's like watching dudes thinking when you turn on their games.

And now Morris is going to be taking over a defense that has specialized into the back end look that he's probably weakest at. So call me crazy or paranoid or whatever but it seems to me that this is a big deal. I know Morris is an experienced coach and all that and I readily admit he was dealing with some serious weaknesses (their DL was shit, their secondary was too, pretty much everyone but Jarrett played like ass). But man am I paranoid about this hire.

Gonna link a PFF article next which I do think might have been linked before, but this is a slow period pre-camp so maybe some will want to pick through it. I find it really helpful in combination with what I'm seeing on tape, to ensure that I'm not misconstruing what the calls are because I am certainly no expert. But by God they ran some serious Cover 2. And this hire... In spite of the fact that I think Morris is a head coach in the future, the nuts and bolts of it smack of friend hire to me. It's a bad fit. IMO and I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Merlin]

PFF Data Study: Coverage scheme uniqueness for each team and what that means for coaching changes | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

PFF introduces coverage scheme uniqueness, a new statistic to measure the innovation brought by each NFL defensive playcaller.

www.pff.com

PFF Data Study: Coverage scheme uniqueness for each team and what that means for coaching changes​

Dec 20, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks on during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

By Tej Seth and Ryan Weisman
Jun 29, 2021

Between Peyton Manning’s 2015 Denver Broncos, Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 Kansas City Chiefs and Aaron Rodgers’ 2020 Green Bay Packers, the NFL has seen no shortage of dominant passing offenses over recent seasons.

Defenses have tried a variety of different coverages and schemes to combat that. The Seattle Seahawks soared to relevancy in the “Legion of Boom” era by playing heavy Cover 3 Zone, while the New England Patriots have found success for over two decades playing man coverages such as Cover 0 and Cover 1.

Since there are various ways to line up in coverage, we can group the league's defensive schemes into six K-Means clusters. K-Means clustering takes a set of data points and aggregates them together based on similarity. This can be helpful for the NFL coverage analysis because we can take multiple coverage frequencies, put them into a clustering algorithm and see which secondaries play similarly. The features of each cluster are listed below:

• Cluster 1: This cluster features a lot of man coverage, including the highest rates of Cover 1 and Cover 2 Man in the league. The Detroit Lions fall into this cluster.
• Cluster 2: Cluster 2 stands head and shoulders above the rest of the league in use of Cover 0 and man coverage. The New England Patriots emulate this cluster.
• Cluster 3: Zone coverage is the defining feature of this cluster, and they use Cover 3 more than anyone else. The Seahawks have been in this cluster ever since PFF started charting coverages in 2014.
• Cluster 4: This cluster is the most unique, as teams in this cluster play much more Cover 4 and Cover 6 than the rest of the league. Brandon Staley’s Rams defense took the league by storm in 2020 by doing just that.
• Cluster 5: Cluster 5 played an even split of man and zone and was really high on Cover 2 while being really low on Cover 4. The Pittsburgh Steelers define this cluster.
• Cluster 6: Cover 4 and zone coverage is the defining factor of this cluster. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fit into this category.

Based on our six clusters, we can do a principal component analysis to create linear combinations of all the variables we put into our cluster analysis, with a linear combination of the components going on the x-axis and y-axis:

The “Bill Belichick tree” in the bottom left shows that the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions and New England Patriots featured a lot of man coverage, with Cover 0 and Cover 1. The “Vic Fangio tree,” with the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams, is on the opposite side with zone coverage like Cover 4 and Cover 6.

That’s where we can create a new statistic called “coverage scheme uniqueness.” This statistic takes how far away a team’s PCA analysis is away from the origin. The more different a coverage is from the rest of the NFL, the higher their uniqueness score will be.
Here’s how the teams stacked up in 2020:

As mentioned earlier, Brandon Staley took a talented Rams defense, played a very unique sequence of coverages and finished with the No. 1 ranked defense in the league. On the other side, Gregg Williams’ Jets defense was the least unique, which might have contributed to him getting fired midway through the season. This prompts a deeper dive into those two teams' coverage usage.

Below is a side-by-side comparison of the most and least unique coverage teams, the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Jets, respectively.

Because the Rams played Cover 4 and Cover 6 much more frequently than the rest of the NFL, this gives us an idea that coverage scheme uniqueness is heavily weighted on the frequency of uncommon coverages being used. Other teams’ coverage schemes can be explored on The Kneel Down, which uses PFF data to automate that process.

That being said, scheme uniqueness doesn’t necessarily mean a defense will allow fewer expected points added (EPA) per pass:

In this graph, the dots represent every defensive scheme since 2015 along with the logos plotted for 2020. The Rams and Dolphins fielded great pass defenses with unique schemes, while Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay relied more on the pass rush to stop opposing quarterbacks.

One of the more interesting case studies was that Matt Patricia made his coverage scheme less unique as the season went on in an attempt to save his job. Spoiler alert, it didn’t work:

The Lions started 0-2 while playing zone coverage only 21% of the time during those weeks. They transitioned to a more common NFL defense, playing zone 48% of the time from Week 3 to Week 12, when Patricia was fired. The good news for Detroit — but the worrisome news for the Los Angeles Rams — is that scheme uniqueness is not stable when there’s a coaching change after the season:

This makes sense, as schemes are largely controlled by the playcallers and not the actual players on the field. Of course, a good defensive coordinator should be able to adapt to the players they’re given, but there is not much evidence of that. If that was the case, “different scheme” would be more stable, and “same scheme” would be less stable.

Now that we have an idea of how much defensive coverage scheme uniqueness changes from season N to season N+1, we can look at how much it changes when there’s a mid-season firing:

The Las Vegas Raiders appear on this graph three times in just seven years. They’ve tried and failed to run bland defensive schemes, and after a coaching change, their schemes get even more vanilla to finish out the season. This has contributed to the Raiders ranking 32nd in both EPA allowed per play and EPA allowed per pass from 2014 to 2020.

As seen with the line of best fit, scheme uniqueness doesn’t seem to change as much when there’s a mid-season coaching change rather than an offseason coaching change, as seen earlier. This is because it’s much easier to change a scheme with an offseason installation program than installing it on the fly as an interim head coach or defensive coordinator.

However, there are some really interesting outliers to look at, such as the 2018 Cleveland Browns:

In her Big Data Bowl paper on maximum defender depth, Nicole Tucker used tracking data from the 2018 season to find that the Browns did some different things in the post-Hue Jackson era:

“During the first eight weeks of the season, with Hue Jackson as the head coach, the Browns’ last defender stood, on average, approximately 17.5 yards away from the line of scrimmage at the snap. In the back half of the season, with Gregg Williams as interim head coach, the average was down to 16.4 yards. This doesn’t seem like a significant difference, but combining this information with the consistent downward trend seen in the visual provides more insight into the bigger picture.”

The Browns’ scheme clearly changed from the first eight games of the season to the final eight. Their maximum defender depth moved closer to the line of scrimmage, and their zone rate dropped from 60% to 50% with interim coach Gregg Williams.

Coaching changes aren't the only thing that can change the uniqueness of the scheme. There’s also playoff Bill Belichick:

With each year’s coverage scheme uniqueness plotted in gray and Belichick’s yearly average in blue, we can see that he generally keeps his best cards hidden during the regular season and ramps up the unique coverage schemes during the playoffs.

His main change in the playoffs is increasing his use of man coverage by about 8% more than he uses it in the regular season. NFL teams primarily are in some type of zone 60% of the time, but his 44% use of zone during the regular season and 36% use of it during the playoffs are what makes his coverage scheme uniqueness score so high from weeks 18 to 21.

He does this by placing an emphasis on Cover 2 Man and Cover 1 while decreasing his use of Cover 3 (the most common coverage played in the NFL) and Cover 2. Between his ability to be unique each and every year and to cause opposing offenses fits, Belichick has shown why he is still the top defensive mind in the NFL.

Coverage scheme uniqueness is a great way to measure the innovation brought by each NFL defensive playcaller. Looking at Brandon Staley as an example: Throughout the season, there was a hunch he was an incredibly gifted defensive mind, and his uniqueness score proves it.

Of course, a scheme's uniqueness doesn’t necessarily make it a better defense. Staley showed that in order for defenses to succeed, they need a unique playcaller and talented personnel. That is why the 2020 Los Angeles Rams were so successful.

Since Staley has left the Rams to be the Chargers head coach, coverage scheme uniqueness also allows us to see what actually happens when there is a defensive coaching change. Year-to-year coaching changes see a large change in scheme uniqueness, while mid-season coaching changes do not.

 

[Merlin]

I would love to hear McVay or Morris asked about his experience and knowledge of Cover 4. I get that he's been around the league and may know more about it than we think. But it would be nice to hear that conversation in terms of "is he going to learn it from McVay?" Or "Is he a damn expert on it already." Or something in between.

 

[Angry Ram]

That's a lot of math and shit bro.

All I know is talent trumps all. And this D has talent.

 

[Dxmissile]

I watched a lot of falcons games last year and I think Morris did what he had to do to help try to mask some deficiencies. You can’t run a diverse scheme if players can’t get the basics down and I think he wanted to simply things so his guys could play faster and try to limit mistakes. But now he’s coming to a team that has stars at almost every level of the defense and players who are extremely versatile. He’s gonna be a rock star hire for us

 

[VeteranRamFan]

This all well and good, but what about the new throw back uniforms?

 

[Lunchbox]

Sincere question that I don't know the answer to. How did Atlanta's scheme differ once the head coach was fired and Morris took over?

Unless I'm mistaken, The Falcon's defense improved by leaps and bounds after Quinn was gone. Was that due to the change at head coach, the change at D Coordinator or the absence of Quinn?

 

[Juice]

Great post. I was worried when they hired Morris because of the Falcons defensive performance last year. However, I thought that they must have a ton of money on the offensive side of the ball. What would Morris would have done if he had the Ram players on his squad? It probably would have looked a hell of a lot different.

I'm thinking that it is a lateral move at the defensive coordinators position, but I that's me wishful thinking.

 

[Allen2McVay]

Sincere question that I don't know the answer to. How did Atlanta's scheme differ once the head coach was fired and Morris took over?

No idea of scheme changes, or the yardage surrendered and takeaway numbers but the Falcons points-against in their first five games was 32 point-per-game.

After the coaching change (final eleven games), the points-against went down to 23 points-per-game; and that included 44 points scored by Tampa in the final game of the season.

 

[CoachAllred]

No idea of scheme changes, or the yardage surrendered and takeaway numbers but the Falcons points-against in their first five games was 32 point-per-game.

After the coaching change (final eleven games), the points-against went down to 23 points-per-game; and that included 44 points scored by Tampa in the final game of the season.

I think he did a fine job in Atlanta with what he had.
I read that up until Quinn was fired Morris was DC more in name than the actual play caller.
I think McVay will have Morris running something very similar to last year. with a few personal wrinkles of course.
That's coming from what I heard from Jalen's interview with Aquib.

 

[CoachAllred]

Sincere question that I don't know the answer to. How did Atlanta's scheme differ once the head coach was fired and Morris took over?

From what I read Quinn was the play caller on defense until his firing.

 

[Corbin]

Never been a big of Raheem Morris and I was very surprised McVay went that direction with our D Coordinator.

I'm absolutely tired of coaches getting poached from our staff.

 

[CoachAllred]

And now Morris is going to be taking over a defense that has specialized into the back end look that he's probably weakest at. So call me crazy or paranoid or whatever but it seems to me that this is a big deal. I know Morris is an experienced coach and all that and I readily admit he was dealing with some serious weaknesses (their DL was shit, their secondary was too, pretty much everyone but Jarrett played like ass). But man am I paranoid about this hire.

Would you say McVay's record in hiring DC's is pretty good?
In my opinion he has been 2-0 in his hires.
Wade was the perfect hire for a young McVay and then he goes out and hires Staley
a guy that was considered an unknown at the time, but McVay knew he wanted to run
the Fangio Defense and went out and found a up and coming coach and That turned out better than anyone imagined.

Mcvay is very aware of the most affective defenses in the league and I am almost certain that he understands
the Fangio defense inside and out by now. That's part of his genius..
Morris will be running the defense in the exact way that McVay wants him to.
Morris is also a very educated coach having coached both sides of the ball.
Morris and McVay will come together and run a very smart defense.

I have 0 worries. Rams D will be very formidable and will combine with an offense that will allow our D
to play under less pressure than before.
RELAX BRO WERE GOOD
Hell of a write up by the way!!

 

[Merlin]

That's a lot of math and shit bro.

All I know is talent trumps all. And this D has talent.

Agreed and this is what I've been hoping. Just pointing out that not much has been said about the fit or lack thereof with this hire.

Sincere question that I don't know the answer to. How did Atlanta's scheme differ once the head coach was fired and Morris took over?

Unless I'm mistaken, The Falcon's defense improved by leaps and bounds after Quinn was gone. Was that due to the change at head coach, the change at D Coordinator or the absence of Quinn?

Yeah buried in that PFF article is a graph showing there was very little schematic change. The games back that up, they played a ton of Cover 2 period before and after which is about as vanilla as you can get.

What changed a great deal is hustle. Morris got those guys playing with more effort.

Would you say McVay's record in hiring DC's is pretty good?
In my opinion he has been 2-0 in his hires.

Yes and I've always been in his corner. The guy's a great head coach. Just having, or trying to have, a conversation here that the hire schematically is not too good.

BTW and speaking of this I suspect McVay will be teaching him the nuances of the scheme. We'll see how this works out and I do have high expectations for the record.

 

[sloramfan]

i'm in the mcvay in charge camp, and from mcvay, and his persona i get a "what you don't know, i will show you"... the hows and whys, because that's what i think he does in the mcvay camp...

"so let me tell you what i see and how i remedy this look"... all day long in the mcvay camp...

guys, to tell you the truth, i look foward to an outstanding defensive performance by this team.. due to the fact that he spent a whole year working with staley.. the guy absorbs EVERYTHING... AND I THINK HE HAS THE FANGIO/STALEY D ANALYZED AND READY TO ROLL OUT WITH WHATEVER TWEEKS NECESSARY..

don't try to tell me that staley's input was not absorbed by mcvay... he gets it... all of it...

buckle up ramfans...

PARTY TIME!!!...

go rams

slo

 

[CGI_Ram]

I would love to hear McVay or Morris asked about his experience and knowledge of Cover 4. I get that he's been around the league and may know more about it than we think. But it would be nice to hear that conversation in terms of "is he going to learn it from McVay?" Or "Is he a damn expert on it already." Or something in between.

The good news; Morris has a lot of football experience.

But, yeah… it’s not only a new scheme… he needs to “call the game”. Which means having a feel for it.

Morris has some catch-up work to do.

McVay nailed the Staley hire. His experience from 2020 formed a vision that Morris was the man to replace him. There were several articles written about McVay being involved defensively last year… so he would seem to understand what he needs.

So many interesting storylines for camp!

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I’ll start worrying if the defense struggles once the games start

Teams like the Ravens and Steelers have run the same defenses for years with great success. That tells me its all about the talent.

 

[den-the-coach]

Big year for Raheem Morris too, he either propels himself with this opportunity to be able obtain another Head Coaching gig or if not, he becomes McVay's assistant Head Coach & McVay finds somebody else.

I'm confident in Morris the Atlanta defense notwithstanding, seems to be great at motivating players and also seems to have an eye for talent (Bobby Brown & Rochel) so let the games begin.

 

[Ram65]

I stated before McVay knows Morris from coaching on two teams at the same time.

Morris will build on the Staley. defense. Could be with s little help from McVay.

I would be surprised if there is much drop off this year. Could easily be better than last year.

Until we see him coach a few games there can be some doubt. I have a very good feeling he will work out just fine.

 

[Selassie I]

If you watch the Leb and Ramsey interview that was posted here yesterday... Leb asks Ramsey what he thinks the differences will be with Morris. Ramsey said that the scheme is pretty much not changing much at all.