2014 Draft Wr Prospects Thread

[jrry32]

Well, those of you who know me from RRF know that my favorite(and best) position to evaluate is the WR position. So after binging on WR film over the last few days, I think I finally feel caught up enough to be comfortable with releasing some rankings. There might be a shocker or two. These are based on how I'd draft them...not where I mock them going.

I added a short little summary on each player.

Top 10 Outside WRs
1. Sammy Watkins WR Clemson - Explosive WR with top tier deep speed and a natural hands catcher...top 5 talent
2. Mike Evans WR Texas A&M - Deceptive deep speed with a big body, great physicality and dominance at the catch point...top 10 talent
3. Kelvin Benjamin WR Florida State - Elite physical specimen with upside through the roof but inconsistent hands...top 20 talent(although I probably wouldn't be the one drafting him...too boom/bust for me)
4. Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU - Great athlete that attacks the ball at its highest point better than WRs with 6 inches on him but prone to concentration drops...1st round talent
5. Eric Thomas WR Troy - Strong as an ox with top tier hands and great YAC skills but lacks vertical speed...top 40 talent
6. Jordan Matthews WR Vanderbilt - Extremely smooth with excellent work ethic and football IQ but prone to drops...top 40 talent
7. Allen Robinson WR Penn State - Polished route runner with loose hips and good hands but lacks top tier athleticism and strength...2nd round pick
8. Davante Adams WR Fresno State - Amazing body control and strong hands but raw route runner with stiff hips...2nd-3rd round pick
9. Jared Abbrederis WR Wisconsin - Quick feet, reliable hands, savvy and a lot of burst but struggles with release vs. the press, knocked off his route too easily and lacks physical strength to battle with big CBs...3rd round pick
10. Ryan Grant WR Tulane - Natural hands catcher with deep speed but very slight build, lacks natural strength and not extraordinarily quick...top 100 talent

Top 5 Slot WRs
1. Brandin Cooks WR Oregon State - Undersized but extremely quick and athletic, natural hands catcher and aggressive competitor...2nd round pick
2. Robert Herron WR Wyoming - Explosive in his cuts, savvy player, hands catcher with quick feet and thick build...top 50 talent
3. Jarvis Landry WR LSU - Lacks top end speed and explosion out of cuts but extraordinarily strong hands, physically strong and aggressive competitor...3rd round pick
4. Bruce Ellington WR South Carolina - Excellent athleticism and build with solid hands but raw as a route runner and not overly explosive out of breaks...3rd-4th round pick
5. T.J. Jones WR Notre Dame - Fairly polished route runner with good initial burst, body control and hands but lacks top-end speed and great YAC skills...4th round pick

Late Round Value Pick: Jeremy Gallon WR Michigan

Yes, I realize that Marqise Lee isn't ranked. If anyone is interested, I'd be happy to explain why.

Feel free to criticize my rankings or create your own.

 

[jjab360]

Seems like a pretty good list, just one question that I'm pretty sure you expected to be asked. Who the heck is Eric Thomas???

 

[DR RAM]

jrry32, why don't you give us your last three draft WR evals, if you still have them. That could be fun to look at.

BTW, nice job, I certainly won't pick it apart, except please explain about Marqise Lee?

 

[Ramrocket]

Nice Jrry!!

Beckham intrigues me. and whilst I'm no fan of Lee's, I'd be keen to hear your reasons for not rating him.

 

[jrry32]

jrry32, why don't you give us your last three draft WR evals, if you still have them. That could be fun to look at.

BTW, nice job, I certainly won't pick it apart, except please explain about Marqise Lee?

I'm not sure if I have them but I'll check around. I don't always do full rankings.

The reason why I didn't list Lee is because I have a test when it comes to WRs that you have to pass in order for me to consider drafting you. To put in the most basic terms possible, it's a "hands" test. In order for me to consider drafting a WR, he has to be a natural hands catcher and cannot have major issues with dropped passes.

Which is why I did not list Lee. He failed the test. He is a guy who routinely body-catches(uses his pads and arms to trap the ball) and he had a drop% of 12.3% this year with several key drops.

Here's my methodology behind it. I know I risk passing on players that might end up being productive(and Lee very well could be one of those guys) but for me, my main concern isn't who I pass on. It's who I draft. So as long as the guys I'm drafting aren't busting, I'm okay with passing on guys who end up being successful too. And my track record with WRs is fairly strong so it's worked thus far for me.

 

[Mister Sin]

Jerry, damnit, how dare you leave out Ladamian Washington. Being a Mizzou guy, I get offended.

 

[laramsoriginal]

Lee will most likely go in the 1st round.

After saying that, I am very cautious of WR's from USC. It seems like SC sends out WR's that struggle to adjust to the nfl...woods seems to be bucking that trend, though.

Lee will be very impressive at the combine so I doubt he falls out the first round

 

[laramsoriginal]

Another guy not listed is the wr from rutgers. Coleman has a big frame along with good athletic ability for a guy his size.

I would love for the rams to take him in the 3rd or 4th. He might take 2 years to develope but has great upside

 

[jrry32]

Seems like a pretty good list, just one question that I'm pretty sure you expected to be asked. Who the heck is Eric Thomas???

Eric Thomas is pretty much a complete unknown at this point with the media but I feel fairly confident NFL teams are aware of him(although maybe not as high on him as I am). I actually was in the same boat as you were recently, I knew who he was because he got a late invite to the Senior Bowl and made a catch in the game but I knew nothing about him up until a few days ago.

While on my WR film binge, I decided to take a look at a few Troy games to see Eric Thomas play purely on a whim. Lets just say, my jaw dropped during the first game I saw of him. He broke T.Y. Hilton's Sun Belt career receiving TD record this year ending his career with 28 receiving TDs(12 in 2013). He's a 6'1" 215 pound WR with nearly 11 inch hands and 32 inch arms. What stood out to me in watching him is how much he reminded me of Anquan Boldin. While Thomas lacks breakaway vertical speed, he has incredible hands. The guy made spectacular highlight reel catches look routine and did it on almost a weekly basis.

As I said, he has a thick build at 6'1" 215 but what's most impressive and truly stands out about his build is how HUGE his lower body is. It's very noticeable. He's built like a power HB in his lower body. And he uses it. He's extremely strong and tough to bring down as a runner. I saw him throw a CB to the ground with a stiff arm. On top of that, he's surprisingly elusive. I am going to stop myself before I ramble on too much but the number one thing I look for in WRs is the ability to catch the football. Thomas does that and he doesn't just do it well...he does it as well as any WR in this class. When you add in his YAC ability, that's just gravy...here's the play where he stiff-armed the CB and another play where he shows off his strength:
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(just copy and paste the link...for whatever reason, it's not embedding right)
Add the numbers to the end of this url: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:

I could link you to quite a few spectacular grabs he made this year. Here are a few from past years on youtube:

 

[HE WITH HORNS]

I'm all for taking Watkins at #2 overall if we don't trade down.

 

[chefRAMzy]

I maybe a homer since I'm from fresno, but Davante Adams is a freak. He runs a 4.4 and has a 38-40 inch vert and is 6'3(in cleats lol). I went to watch many games and in single coverage he kills the cb easy. And yes I know he doesn't play good competition but man he's a baller. Another problem is we already have a project in quick but I can tell u that Adams has way better hand then him already.

 

[rdlkgliders]

I have an Honest question Jrry32
Your dislike of Lee seems to be personal, do you dislike USC? I am aware of your concerns about him but the whole top 10 can be picked apart for the areas that they would need to improve.
I like the list but there is not a reputable talent scout in the country that would place most of that list above Lee

 

[jrry32]

jrry32, why don't you give us your last three draft WR evals, if you still have them. That could be fun to look at.

BTW, nice job, I certainly won't pick it apart, except please explain about Marqise Lee?

This is the best I could find:
From 2011(April):

1. AJ Green
2. Julio Jones


3. Torrey Smith
4. Greg Little

5. Randall Cobb


6. Jonathan Baldwin
7. Titus Young
8. Leonard Hankerson

9. Jerrel Jernigan
10. Denarius Moore

From 2012(March):

This is how I'd rank them(and I know my opinion won't be popular):
1. Alshon Jeffery
2. Michael Floyd
3. Justin Blackmon
4. Kendall Wright
5. Rueben Randle
6. T.Y. Hilton
7. AJ Jenkins
8. Mohamed Sanu
9. Chris Givens
10. Ryan Broyles
11. Stephen Hill
12. Tommy Streeter
13. Greg Childs
14. Marvin Jones
15. Jeff Fuller
16. Jarius Wright
17. Rishard Matthews
18. Marvin McNutt
19. Joe Adams
20. Brian Quick
HM: Gerell Robinson

From 2013(January):

I thought this would be an interesting thread with such a strong WR class. Feel free to edit or post new rankings from now until the draft. Here's my 1st WR rankings, I know it'll change between now and draft day many times:
1. Terrance Williams
2. Keenan Allen
3. Justin Hunter
4. Tavon Austin
5. Markus Wheaton
6. Cordarrelle Patterson
7. DeAndre Hopkins
8. Da'Rick Rodgers
9. Quinton Patton
10. Stedman Bailey
11. Robert Woods
12. Cobi Hamilton
13. Tavarres King
14. Marquise Goodwin
15. Marquess Wilson

Updated.

But those definitely changed. Just off of memory, around draft time, it was something like:
1. Tavon Austin
2. Cordarrelle Patterson
3. DeAndre Hopkins
4. Terrance Williams
5. Da'Rick Rogers(didn't realize he was such a headcase)
6. Markus Wheaton
7. Keenan Allen
8. Justin Hunter
9. Robert Woods
10. Stedman Bailey

I did say this in April 2013 though:

Bailey is a savvy route runner who already understands how to change speeds to sell his routes(a lot of NFL WRs don't do this properly). He is explosive in and out of his breaks, he uses his body well to shield out defenders despite being a shorter WR, he has an extra gear on the deep ball which allows him to separate extremely well on post routes and he is very good at picking up yards after the catch. He can make guys miss and break tackles.

Bailey is a very underrated WR. Does all of the little things well and has good athleticism. I've compared him to Derrick Mason before and I think that comparison works real well.

WR is a tough position to predict. If you were to ask me which WRs that I guarantee would pan out in the NFL, I would give you four names:
1. Tavon Austin
2. Keenan Allen
3. Markus Wheaton
4. Stedman Bailey

Funny thing is that 3 of the 4 are "shorter" WRs. But in watching the tape on those four players, I would be willing to guarantee that they pan out. Not in the sense of being 1200+ yard WRs but in the sense, that you're getting a guy who will be a contributor at minimum...by that...I mean 700 to 800 yards a year at worst.(spare maybe the rookie year) Basically solid #2s at worst.

Why? Have done a lot of tape review on them and their skill-sets, to me, translate extremely well to the NFL.

I'm not saying the others won't pan out. I'm only saying that I'm not as confident about them.

But that wasn't a straight ranking.

 

[jrry32]

I have an Honest question Jrry32
Your dislike of Lee seems to be personal, do you dislike USC? I am aware of your concerns about him but the whole top 10 can be picked apart for the areasthat they would need to improve.
I like the list but there is not a reputable talent scout in the country that would place most of that list above Lee

Nothing personal about it. As I said above, doesn't pass the hands test for me.

 

[RamsFan14]

I REALLY want to fall in love with Mike Evans, however I think he's missing the separation part of his game for my tastes. I don't think the guy gets enough love for the way he plays tho, overall he's a pretty solid WR. It would be nice if he got more separation with his routes because he has most of the tools to be pretty darn good in this league. He can make catches in traffic, don't need to talk about jump balls with him, and his height advantage can really help us out against Seattle and shorter CBs. Taller WRs are making a big impact on the league, feel like Evans fits the mood of some of the really good playmakers out there (not saying shorter ones can't be great, but look at Larry Fitz, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, D Thomas, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Green, all of these guys have a good height advantage). I'd say the two things he needs to work on for the combine is his speed and route running. If he can work on his speed and somehow just light it up... I would be more tempted to pick him over Watkins (very close call, honestly both players would be great prospects). Evans hands seem pretty good to me, seen some drops but they happen with everyone. If Evans can run in the low 4.40s and the Rams coaches like him overall........ Wouldn't mind taking the tall 6'5 WR with long arms!

 

[mr.stlouis]

We don't need slot guys, we need 1 killer WO. Draft one of the top three guys or don't draft one at all. That's my stance.

 

[rdlkgliders]

I REALLY want to fall in love with Mike Evans, however I think he's missing the separation part of his game for my tastes. I don't think the guy gets enough love for the way he plays tho, overall he's a pretty solid WR. It would be nice if he got more separation with his routes because he has most of the tools to be pretty darn good in this league. He can make catches in traffic, don't need to talk about jump balls with him, and his height advantage can really help us out against Seattle and shorter CBs. Taller WRs are making a big impact on the league, feel like Evans fits the mood of some of the really good playmakers out there (not saying shorter ones can't be great, but look at Larry Fitz, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, D Thomas, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Green, all of these guys have a good height advantage). I'd say the two things he needs to work on for the combine is his speed and route running. If he can work on his speed and somehow just light it up... I would be more tempted to pick him over Watkins (very close call, honestly both players would be great prospects). Evans hands seem pretty good to me, seen some drops but they happen with everyone. If Evans can run in the low 4.40s and the Rams coaches like him overall........ Wouldn't mind taking the tall 6'5 WR with long arms!

He is not a 4.4 guy you have to fall in love with his hands and size to take him. those are the elements that create the mismatch opportunities . He is not running by DB's just not his schtick

 

[ChrisW]

Jrry, All I heard about Abbrederis from the Senior bowl was how well he was playing. But, I also heard that he projects as a slot WR in the NFL.

 

[jrry32]

Jrry, All I heard about Abbrederis from the Senior bowl was how well he was playing. But, I also heard that he projects as a slot WR in the NFL.

I think he can be a solid #2 in the NFL. Could play in the slot.

 

[TexasRam]

It's Funny Jrry but I remember early on you were not as big on Watkins as others and were more high on Evans. I was the opposite. Viewed Evans as bust material.

Now though, Evans has grown on me. I think he would fit the Rams offensive plan real well. Let's face it, we are going Marty Ball. Run Run Run. And I don't mind, as the Stacy lead Rams have found something that works and needs to be the heart of the offensive gameplan. With Tavon in the mix we have the quick hitter, big play type. But we are lacking the move the chains 3rd down guy that can get the hard yards. A big body target is going to be critical in the offense that is coming into shape in STL.

As of now, the idea of Evans at the middle of RD 1 is no longer making my stomach sick. Assuming we got an extra pick from moving the #2. I would prefer a few other prospects at 13 over Evans but if am liking the idea of him around the 20 range....despite what his 40 time comes in at.