Will America Survive The Next Economic Collapse?

[Username]

lol

 

[Thordaddy]

I know MOST things fluctuate but some are not coming back down. Gas hasn't come back down since it hit $3. Milk hasn't come back down since doing the same. Bacon prices have doubled if not tripled. Anything affected by ethanol production has gone up and stayed. (milk, bread, eggs, meats, vegetables, etc) Inflation is happening without a doubt but in a stealth manner. Not a word from the media, hmmmm.

You aren't going to get a lot of hard hitting reporting from a press that has devoted their lives to proving they aren't racist when adverse reporting of this President elicits that charge, it's the kiss of death to a "jounalist" along with sexist, homophobe or anti Muslim,it used to be anti Semetic, but that has taken on a sort of nobility of late.

 

[BonifayRam]

I know MOST things fluctuate but some are not coming back down. Gas hasn't come back down since it hit $3. Milk hasn't come back down since doing the same. Bacon prices have doubled if not tripled. Anything affected by ethanol production has gone up and stayed. (milk, bread, eggs, meats, vegetables, etc) Inflation is happening without a doubt but in a stealth manner. Not a word from the media, hmmmm.

Not a real surprise with the today's major media outlets husker is it ? Most are just the extensions of the Washingtonian Elites mouthpiece...why would we expect them to discuss anything that would put light on the Washingtonian Elites in a negative way when they are sleeping with them?

 

[Greg Stone]

If you know Austrian Economics ,then you know your concept of inflation here is erroneous, we do have inflation but it's being wrung out of consumer prices by a 17000 Dow and real estate prices rising.

Further your statement that the OP lacked historical perspective itself lacked historical perspective since the demographics of the U.S. urban vs. agrarian has flipped and if Howard Ruff wasn't right about the societal chaos a people unable to feed themselves after a breakdown in the economy as apocalyptic as described I'll be surprised.

I am halfway sold the Cloward -Piven Strategy is being implemented as we speak.

Will America survive ,probably, I have doubts the constitution will

I wasn't describing a "concept of inflation", I was addressing the subjective concerns of a particular person.

As for historical perspective, you have not contested my examples of worse things the US has successfully recovered from. Understand, the OP is predicting unprecedented doomsday with no recovery. I'm responding that there have been far worse crises with the government in worse position than it is now.

Since you bring up the Cloward-Piven Strategy I presume you simply forgot the blue font.

 

[Thordaddy]

I wasn't describing a "concept of inflation", I was addressing the subjective concerns of a particular person.

As for historical perspective, you have not contested my examples of worse things the US has successfully recovered from. Understand, the OP is predicting unprecedented doomsday with no recovery. I'm responding that there have been far worse crises with the government in worse position than it is now.

Since you bring up the Cloward-Piven Strategy I presume you simply forgot the blue font.

No blue font needed, we are overloading our social welfare system and inviting millions more from out of the country to join in AND proposing minimum wage increases to further expand the effects (note this NEVER happens until the second term of Presidents of the party who back it).

As far as criticizing another's sense of history, in 1930 we were 75% agrarian 25% urban ,by 1975 that number had inverted and today we are more like 90% urban 10% agrarian ,the pressure that puts on a stable medium of exchange is UNPRECEDENTED in this country so our survival THEN was as much a factor of the populous being far less dependent upon the government for mere survival than now,so one could say your sense of history gives false confidence.

I too am a supporter of the Austrian School, and merely wanted to help you out a little on your use of terms.

Hubris about our survival is a flaw we can ill afford and characterizing those who wish to opine about it as purveyors of "doom and gloom" is IMO a sign of that.

 

[Greg Stone]

Again, you do not contest that my examples, the Civil War foremost among them, were worst crises with a weaker government than the current situation. Obviously, Jefferson's dream of an agrarian utopia were dashed by the mass migration from the country to the city to obtain more desirable lives. As a result of this migration we have trended toward higher wealth and greater financial instability. You may be an idealist like Jefferson who prefers the stoic farmer but the people consistently chose the city and greater wealth. We may have farther to fall from this greater height but are unlikely to hit the severe poverty that characterized most family farms before the twentieth century.

 

[Thordaddy]

Again, you do not contest that my examples, the Civil War foremost among them, were worst crises with a weaker government than the current situation. Obviously, Jefferson's dream of an agrarian utopia were dashed by the mass migration from the country to the city to obtain more desirable lives. As a result of this migration we have trended toward higher wealth and greater financial instability. You may be an idealist like Jefferson who prefers the stoic farmer but the people consistently chose the city and greater wealth. We may have farther to fall from this greater height but are unlikely to hit the severe poverty that characterized most family farms before the twentieth century.

You saw no preference expressed in my post so you had to intuit that ,I personally have moved from the city and live in a completely self sustainable location.
I did contest the context OF YOUR examples and thereby their correlation to present conditions.
Glad to see you understand the precipitous fall we risk especially by pumping so much currency into the economy without jobs to earn it and thereby sustain.
My thesis is that the civil unrest coming from a populous the government suddenly would need to support IN TOTAL due to their complete inability to do anything but take sustenance by force from others is enough to topple a government.
Your effort to compare doesn't come close to a ceteris paribus situation,that's all the challenge needed to your examples.

 

[AnarchyRam]

To start with, I notice you have not refuted my main statements, that the Austrian school of economics did not predict what you claimed they did and that the US has recovered from much more severe crises.

Just to be clear, It's your contention that the Austrian School supporters did not predict the 2008 housing bubble and subsequent collapse? If not, then please explain.

 

[AnarchyRam]

I think the most disturbing nature of the current financial system is how there must be continual inflation in order to sustain it. There must always be more money (digital) for the banks to kick around. The moment there's even a slight PULL BACK in digital money - all hell breaks loose.

Digital dollars FAR outweigh actual paper money. And as a result, when the digital dollars begin to dry up things have a tendency to spin out of control due to this. All that digital "money" goes up in smoke and suddenly everything we thought we had is no more. There's nothing of value behind these fictional numbers so when it goes, IT GOES. This is the nature of this system and why those in government spaz out every time the markets tank - They know the money system might literally dry up.

 

[Thordaddy]

See I think Greg you don't take into account the drag the government already is on the economy.

 

[Dodgersrf]

The biggest mistake the government made was bailing out the banks and not homeowners. The mass of foreclosures flooded the market with inventory, halting growth
Keep people in their homes, keep inventory lower and growth becomes a necessity.

 

[Thordaddy]

The biggest mistake the government made was bailing out the banks and not homeowners. The mass of foreclosures flooded the market with inventory, halting growth
Keep people in their homes, keep inventory lower and growth becomes a necessity.

Well they sort of did both, but the real mistake was not letting the market shake out the bad guys bankers and homeowners alike cuz the good guys will and have ended up paying them to stay in place.
Very little has changed it was mostly

 

[Dodgersrf]

Well they sort of did both, but the real mistake was not letting the market shake out the bad guys bankers and homeowners alike cuz the good guys will and have ended up paying them to stay in place.
Very little has changed it was mostly

The help for homeowners came 4 years too late.

I, for example, took three pay cuts before having to let my home go. Many were in the same position. People with good jobs that were previously living well within their means.

Once inventory started to skyrocket, home prices fell by half. At that point homeowners and investors were just walking away from property, in turn halting growth.

Keeping inventory low should have been priority number one.

 

[AnarchyRam]

The help for homeowners came 4 years too late.

I, for example, took three pay cuts before having to let my home go. Many were in the same position. People with good jobs that were previously living well within their means.

Once inventory started to skyrocket, home prices fell by half. At that point homeowners and investors were just walking away from property, in turn halting growth.

Keeping inventory low should have been priority number one.

Why should other people have to pay for your financial mistakes?

I've made tons of financial mistakes in my life but should I expect taxpayers to bail me out?

And if home prices fall, well guess what? That's good for buyers.

I'm not a fan of corrupt, immoral and ignorant politicians picking winners and losers!!

 

[Dodgersrf]

Why should other people have to pay for your financial mistakes?

I've made tons of financial mistakes in my life but should I expect taxpayers to bail me out?

And if home prices fall, well guess what? That's good for buyers.

I'm not a fan of corrupt, immoral and ignorant politicians picking winners and losers!!

Financial mistakes?
The company I work for had to lay off 75% of our employees. The rest of us took DRASTIC pay cuts to keep working.
Not a financial mistake. Savings was wiped out in 1 year.

I said nothing about tax payer bail outs either. The banks should have taken the hit. Not the people.

Selling bullshit loans due to deregulation of the mortgage industry led to a very tough recession. Then letting the homeowners take the hit instead of the banks at fault? Many were bailed out. Some were shut down.

The point is that the recession was magnified greatly, do to the inability for the economy to grow. An overstocked market, flooded with inventory takes years to catch up.

 

[Thordaddy]

Financial mistakes?
The company I work for had to lay off 75% of our employees. The rest of us took DRASTIC pay cuts to keep working.
Not a financial mistake. Savings was wiped out in 1 year.

I said nothing about tax payer bail outs either. The banks should have taken the hit. Not the people.

Selling bullcrap loans due to deregulation of the mortgage industry led to a very tough recession. Then letting the homeowners take the hit instead of the banks at fault? Many were bailed out. Some were shut down.

The point is that the recession was magnified greatly, do to the inability for the economy to grow. An overstocked market, flooded with inventory takes years to catch up.

I'm not going to characterize your situation only you know what it was, but IF you financed a house AND your car ,that's a mistake ,as upside down as you were in your house inadvertently you are the minute you buy a car if you finance. I maintain I don't have the money to waste to finance one.
I've heard many people say ,but I don't have the money to pay cash for a car, but they pay for the car anyway and way more BECAUSE they financed it.

For me trifling with the market to advantage /save anyone was going to put a burden on someone who was unrelated and certainly undeserving of the burden,so while I agree the banks didn't deserve a bailout ,I don't agree homeowners were any more deserving.

Holding down inventory to keep values up in a market based on the greater fool theory just kicks the problem down the road for someone else to deal with and possibly with more severe consequences once again to be shared by people who'd intentionally lived WAY below their means .

Real estate people will tell you you can afford a house three times your annual salary, I've never financed a house where the outstanding balance was more than ONE and a half times my annual income.
That doesn't mean I'm rich, it means I won't spend what I don't have beyond a threshold,I have rules ,never finance anything that depreciates in value unless it's a tool to produce income and the depreciation is tax deductible,only finance things that appreciate in value but don't finance more than the value two years prior to the purchase date,IOW subtract two years expected appreciation and make that your down payment MINIMUM.
My formula won't make you rich ,but it'll never make you poor either.

 

[BonifayRam]

Why should other people have to pay for your financial mistakes?
I've made tons of financial mistakes in my life but should I expect taxpayers to bail me out?
And if home prices fall, well guess what? That's good for buyers.
I'm not a fan of corrupt, immoral and ignorant politicians picking winners and losers!!

Ab Lincoln used his Second Inaugural Address to say something about those who would expect others to carry their load for them...Ab's words "wringing their bread from the sweat of other men's faces".

 

[AnarchyRam]

Financial mistakes?
The company I work for had to lay off 75% of our employees. The rest of us took DRASTIC pay cuts to keep working.
Not a financial mistake. Savings was wiped out in 1 year.

I said nothing about tax payer bail outs either. The banks should have taken the hit. Not the people.

Selling bullcrap loans due to deregulation of the mortgage industry led to a very tough recession. Then letting the homeowners take the hit instead of the banks at fault? Many were bailed out. Some were shut down.

The point is that the recession was magnified greatly, do to the inability for the economy to grow. An overstocked market, flooded with inventory takes years to catch up.

Yeah, well it's certainly true that the "glut" of homes on the market lowered home values in certain areas. I think it's just important to recognize though that lower home prices do not hurt EVERYONE. It hurts some and helps others. But for some reason all the focus is always on the negative effects of lower prices. Which, if you think about it is silly. There's winners and losers in almost all transactions.

I don't know about you, but I want to BUY my house at the lowest price possible. I want to BUY GAS as cheap as I can get it. The government (by virtue of it's immoral economic system) always desires for price inflation rather than deflation thus we always need more and more gdamn money in order to just keep pace with inflation.

Also though, "deregulation" is a misnomer. There were tremendous rules and regulations from government which precisely caused the housing bubble and collapse. Old Ron Paul in 2001 gave a speech from the floor of the house warning PRECISELY how this collapse would unfold in the coming years.

 

[RhodyRams]

not even going to comment on this, except for what happened to the "no political discussions here"

 

[Dodgersrf]

Yeah, well it's certainly true that the "glut" of homes on the market lowered home values in certain areas. I think it's just important to recognize though that lower home prices do not hurt EVERYONE. It hurts some and helps others. But for some reason all the focus is always on the negative effects of lower prices. Which, if you think about it is silly. There's winners and losers in almost all transactions.

I don't know about you, but I want to BUY my house at the lowest price possible. I want to BUY GAS as cheap as I can get it. The government (by virtue of it's immoral economic system) always desires for price inflation rather than deflation thus we always need more and more gdamn money in order to just keep pace with inflation.

Also though, "deregulation" is a misnomer. There were tremendous rules and regulations from government which precisely caused the housing bubble and collapse. Old Ron Paul in 2001 gave a speech from the floor of the house warning PRECISELY how this collapse would unfold in the coming years.

I'm not going to characterize your situation only you know what it was, but IF you financed a house AND your car ,that's a mistake ,as upside down as you were in your house inadvertently you are the minute you buy a car if you finance. I maintain I don't have the money to waste to finance one.
I've heard many people say ,but I don't have the money to pay cash for a car, but they pay for the car anyway and way more BECAUSE they financed it.

For me trifling with the market to advantage /save anyone was going to put a burden on someone who was unrelated and certainly undeserving of the burden,so while I agree the banks didn't deserve a bailout ,I don't agree homeowners were any more deserving.

Holding down inventory to keep values up in a market based on the greater fool theory just kicks the problem down the road for someone else to deal with and possibly with more severe consequences once again to be shared by people who'd intentionally lived WAY below their means .

Real estate people will tell you you can afford a house three times your annual salary, I've never financed a house where the outstanding balance was more than ONE and a half times my annual income.
That doesn't mean I'm rich, it means I won't spend what I don't have beyond a threshold,I have rules ,never finance anything that depreciates in value unless it's a tool to produce income and the depreciation is tax deductible,only finance things that appreciate in value but don't finance more than the value two years prior to the purchase date,IOW subtract two years expected appreciation and make that your down payment MINIMUM.
My formula won't make you rich ,but it'll never make you poor either.

I'm not trying to make this about me. It is about the complete failure of governments and banks roll.

If a homeowner owes 400 on a house that has plummeted to 200 do to the mortgage industries failures, the bank is going to ultimately take a 200 hit if forclosed. If a principal reduction to 300 benefits the homeowner and shortens the banks losses why did they wait so long before making such concessions?
Here in so cal, we were hit hard by the housing plummets. Even after the banks were bailed out, they refused to lend to just about anyone.

I'm not talking about gov handouts here. I think the banks and the auto industries should have been left to fail.
The auto industry could have regrouped on their own, without the uaw. Ford didn't take a handout.