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Five Patriots Players to Watch Against the Rams
The Patriots return home after successful road trip wins over San Francisco and the New York Jets. They’re facing the Los Angeles Rams at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 p.m.
The Rams are sitting at 4-7, which is about the norm for the team under Jeff Fisher. In his fifth year, the team has never been better than 7-8-1 and 2016 seems earmarked for another below .500 finish. They’ll be starting rookie QB Jared Goff in just his third NFL start. Goff was the #1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
The Patriots are 9-2 and are currently the top seed in the AFC. The win over the Jets was costly however, they lost TE Rob Gronkowski, possibly for the year with a back injury. Fellow TE Martellus Bennett suffered an ankle injury in the game as well and although hobbled was able to finish the game.
Here are our five players from a Patriots perspective to watch on Sunday:
QB Tom Brady: Brady missed practice again this week and there’s no doubt his knee is hurting. Just watch him try to kneel at the end of the game on Sunday. But this week is special. With a win on Sunday Brady will stand alone with 201 career wins as a starting QB passing his former rival Peyton Manning.
While Brady is always quick to point out the team aspect of the game, his place in history is further cemented here and the moment will not be lost on him. He’ll have a bit of extra fire in his gut this week.
DL Vincent Valentine: With the Alan Branch suspension still looming for this week’s game, the big rookie defensive tackle will play a key role in the Patriots interior defensive line especially on running downs. While the league continues to drag its feet and no appeal date has yet been set, Branch will continue to play, but with each day that drags on, the Patriots run the risk of losing Branch for a post-season game.
The Rams haven’t had a good running game all season and average just 83.1 yards per game, just 29th in the league. But they also have the talented 2nd year running back Todd Gurley. Their struggles have had more to do with the play of the offensive line than their backs.
The Patriots are going to have to mix Valentine into the rotation more with Branch and Malcom Brown to prepare him for perhaps a starting role once the Branch suspension appeal has been resolved. With big games against the Ravens, Broncos, Jets and Dolphins looming, they’ll need him to be ready to play a big role, both figuratively and literally on defense.
Wide Receiver Malcolm Mitchell: The rookie wide receiver is breaking the mold that the Patriots can’t develop wide receivers. After catching a huge 56-yard touchdown against the 49ers two weeks ago, Mitchell followed that up with a two-touchdown performance against the Jets including the game-winner with just under two minutes to go.
The Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe reported this week that both of Mitchell’s touchdowns were against Darrelle Revis on Sunday. The first time in his career that anyone has scored two touchdowns against the future Hall of Famer.
Mitchell is quickly becoming a trusted, valued target in the Patriots offense. And it couldn’t come at a better time. With Gronkowski lost, possibly for the duration of the year, the Patriots will utilize a lot more of the three and four wide receiver sets.
With Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola handling the duties down low in the short passing game, it will be tasked to Mitchell and Chris Hogan to pick up more of the slack in the middle to deep passing routes. Brady has shown the will and the ability to go deep when teams are intent on taking away the short areas in the middle of the field. Mitchell can be a weapon to use in this realm, his size and athleticism being a plus.
Cornerback Malcolm Butler: The Patriots corner will be going against the Rams talented Kenny Britt or their deep threat Brian Quick on Sunday. With the rookie Goff under center, he’ll be looking to hit his veteran, go-to receivers to move the ball.
If the Patriots get off to a quick start, then the Rams will be thrust into a situation that doesn’t bode well. Getting into a shootout with a rookie QB that has little experience. Then the patience of taking what the defense gives will be tested. Butler will probably see a lot of deep routes this week.
After his worst game of the season against the Jets, Butler will be looking to bounce back. He’s very competitive and you know the members of the secondary hear all of the barbs thrown their way by the fans and the press. Here’s a chance at a bit of redemption.
Center David Andrews: Much of this week has dealt with the talk of the Rams big disruptor on the interior of their defensive line Aaron Donald. And it is well deserved. Donald is incredibly strong and athletic and can blow up running plays in the backfield as well as push the pocket and get after the QB.
More than anything, interior quarterback pressure is the toughest for Brady to deal with. When he gets pressure from the edge, he has the innate ability to step up and slide in the pocket. With pressure up the middle and in his face, he loses that ability as well as the chance to step into his throws. It also makes him more susceptible to edge pressure.
As we pointed out in our
pregame matchups, Andrews will be the key player on the offensive line to take on Donald, especially in the passing game. The Rams have an excellent front four and each will be a tough matchup. But their best player is Donald and if the Patriots can neutralize him, then that will go a long way in being a successful day for the offense.
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Patriots – Rams Keys, Who Has the Razor’s Edge?
The New England Patriots return home to Gillette Stadium for a game against the Los Angeles Rams. The kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m.
This week’s game will be televised by Fox Sports and can be seen locally on Fox 25 Channel 25 in Boston. Kevin Burkhardt will handle play-by-play duties with John Lynch as the color analyst. Pam Oliver will work the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The SportsHub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Cappello.
The
Patriots (9-2) improved to 6-0 on the road this season with a 22-17 win over the New York Jets. Tom Brady led the game-winning drive with just over five minutes to go and tossed the winning touchdown pass to Malcolm Mitchell. The rookie WR had two touchdowns on the day. Brady passed the 60,000-yard plateau in his career and the comeback win was his 50thwith career win #200 tying Peyton Manning for the all-time lead for quarterbacks.
The
Rams (4-7) lost a blowout contest in New Orleans 49-21 to the Saints. The Rams defense which had allowed only 50 points in the previous four games allowed nearly that to Drew Brees and the Saints. The good news was however that rookie QB Jared Goff in just his second NFL start tossed three touchdowns.
We here at
PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2016 to give some quick analysis on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.
Series History:
The Patriots and Rams are meeting for the just the 13th time as they are pretty unfamiliar with one another. The two teams did meet in Super Bowl XXXVI with the Pats upsetting the heavily favored Rams 20-17. Although the Patriots hold an overall 7-5 edge in the 12 contests dating back to 1974, they are just 2-3 at home.
The Pats have won the last four meetings with the last a 45-7 win in London back in 2012. Tom Brady threw for four touchdowns, two to Rob Gronkowski and two to WR Brandon Lloyd.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs Rams Front Seven – Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots rushing offense is averaging 115.8 yards per game and although the running game wasn’t featured a week ago against the Jets, the Patriots did a solid job of running when they did, gaining 95 yards on just 18 carries before Tom Brady did a couple of kneel-downs to end the game.
The Patriots now have a legitimate three-headed rushing attack with LeGarrette Blount handling the big back duties with James White and Dion Lewis running the change of pace duties. Blount has had a fantastic year, gaining 869 yards with 12 touchdowns.
The Rams have a fast, physical front seven but have been up and down against the run. Linebackers Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron are the play-making run stuffers with the front four setting the table. They allow an average of 112.3 yards per game.
Look for the Patriots to mix things up with a lot of LaGarrette Blount and mixing in Lewis and White to keep the defense honest. Against their nickel base look, the Patriots should find success running between the tackles. The key matchup is C David Andrews against the big DT Michael Brockers.
Patriots WRs vs Rams Secondary – Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots passing game has plenty of weapons for Tom Brady to bring to bear against a stingy pass defense of the Rams. With Martellus Bennett filling in for Rob Gronkowski, expect the Patriots to show much more three and four wide receiver looks on offense. With Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Danny Amendola, they can pressure the coverages of the Rams.
LA has been good against the pass allowing just 227.5 yards per game in 2016. Last week in New Orleans was an anomaly rather than the norm. Despite not having a ton of sacks (22) the Rams can get after the passer and bring pressure. The guy they’ll look to is DT Aaron Donald who can collapse the pocket from the interior. DE Robert Quinn is a beast on the edge.
While the Rams have been solid in pass defense, look for Brady to hit on the short strikes using the quickness of the receivers off the line. With the “Pony” backfield of James White and Dion Lewis in the passing game, there will be too many weapons to guard against and the Patriots should find success throwing the ball. Once they can establish th short passing game, look for Brady to use Hogan and Mitchell and try to test the deeper throws down the field.
Next up the Los Angeles offense
:
Rams RBs vs NE Front Seven – Razor’s Edge Los Angeles
The Rams have been one of the worst teams in the league at running the football in 2016. While many point at Todd Gurley having a sophomore slump, much of their struggles have to do with an offensive line that hasn’t played well.
The Rams are averaging only 83.1 yards per game and Gurley, after a stellar 2015 season has struggled to gain just 641 yards on 200 carries which works out to a sub-standard 3.2 yards per carry. Benny Cunningham is their change of pace back with 102 yards on the ground, a much more effective 5.1 yards per carry and can catch the ball out of the backfield.
The Patriots have done a good job against the run in 2016 allowing just 99.5 yards per game. Malcolm Brown and Alan Branch have done a solid job of slowing things at the point of attack allowing the linebackers like Dont’a Hightower to clean up. The Patriots will want to slow the run and force Goff into passing situations.
With Branch facing a four-game suspension this week, I think the Patriots may be a little susceptible on the ground this week. Vincent Valentine will fill in his absence but the Patriots are thin there. Woodrow Hamilton is the sole backup and he missed practice on Thursday.
Rams WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge New England
The Rams passing game has struggled in 2016 with Case Keenum under center despite having some quality weapons in Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, speedster Brian Quick, TE Lance Kendricks and Gurley out of the backfield.
Coach Jeff Fisher went with their first-round rookie selection Jared Goff to start at QB the past two games and he responded with a solid effort in New Orleans, tossing three touchdowns. But in just his third NFL start and looking for his first win, he’ll have a tough time against a Bill Belichick/Matt Patricia led defense.
The Patriots have struggled at times defending the pass, allowing 253.6 yards per game. The pass rush has struggled to get home. But they’ve allowed only 17.9 points per game which is third best in the NFL.
The Patriots will try to throw some different looks at the rookie signal caller and keep the play in front of them. Goff will try to hit some deep patterns and must resist the temptation to force things. He’ll get some yardage here but I think their passing game won’t have the kind of success that they’ll need.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Los Angeles
The Patriots special teams have been up and down all season. Last week Stephen Gostkowski missed another field goal although he did make three others and hit on his extra point attempt. Ryan Allen has been solid this season with a 40.9-yard net average on his punts. The coverage units have been good although the return team could use a jolt.
The Rams have an outstanding STs unit and it begins with punter Johnny Hekker. He was lavished praise by Belichick this week and with good cause. He’s one of the best punters in the NFL. He has a stellar 46.7-yard average with a net of 44.9. He’s had 35 kicks inside the 20 with only a single touchback. Their coverage units have been outstanding and they boast the dynamic Austin as their punt returner.
Next up, who wins and why…
Prediction:
This game is a mismatch on paper as the Rams have struggled to score points all season long and there’s no way they’ll be able to keep pace with the Patriots if they can get off to a quick start.
But with Aaron Donald, he can be a difference-maker with his interior pressure on Sunday. The Rams will have to get to and disrupt Brady if they want to win. If the Patriots OL can keep the pass rushers at bay, Brady will pick them apart. On the flip side the Rams offensive line has been leaky, especially left tackle Greg Robinson who was a healthy scratch last week. He’ll return on Sunday and either Trey Flowers or Jabaal Sheard has to make him pay.
The Patriots, sans Branch on the defensive front four, will try to stop Gurley this week, and if they do then this should be a blowout. Goff just doesn’t have the experience yet to recognize some of the looks that Belichick will throw at him. For you, stat geeks, rookie QBs looking for their first NFL win in Foxboro are 0-21 facing Bill Belichick.
Look for Brady to work the short stuff and then take some deep shots to Hogan and Mitchell. Lewis and White will be frequent targets out of the backfield. Blount will be the closer with the running game. The defense will get a turnover or two this week.
Patriots 31-13
