Week 17 playoff scenarios

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/22/week-17-playoff-scenarios/

Week 17 playoff scenarios
Posted by Michael David Smith on December 22, 2014

AP

The Patriots, Broncos, Colts and Cowboys have all clinched their divisions. The Steelers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Lions and Packers have all clinched playoff berths. That’s what we know now.

What we don’t know is who the other three playoff teams will be. And we don’t know any team’s playoff seed. Here are the NFL’s official playoff scenarios for the remaining 17 games of this season:

AFC

CLINCHED:
New England – AFC East and a first-round bye
Denver – AFC West
Indianapolis – AFC South
Pittsburgh – playoff berth

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (vs. Buffalo)

IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) NE win OR

2) NE tie + DEN loss or tie OR

3) DEN loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs

DENVER BRONCOS (at Cincinnati; vs. Oakland)

IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI

Denver clinches a first-round bye

Denver clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) DEN win + NE loss or tie OR

2) DEN tie + NE loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER

Denver clinches a first-round bye with:

1) DEN win or tie OR

2) CIN loss OR

3) CIN tie + IND win

CINCINNATI BENGALS (vs. Denver; at Pittsburgh)

IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI

Cincinnati clinches AFC North with:

1) CIN win

Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot with:

1) CIN tie OR

2) BAL loss or tie OR

3) SD loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER

Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot

Cincinnati clinches AFC North with:

1) CIN win or tie

Cincinnati clinches a first-round bye with:

1) CIN win + DEN loss or tie OR

2) CIN tie + DEN loss + IND loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (vs. Cincinnati)

IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

1) PIT win or tie

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

1) PIT win

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (at Kansas City)

IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI

San Diego clinches a playoff spot with:

1) SD win OR

2) SD tie + CIN loss OR

3) SD tie + BAL loss or tie

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER

San Diego clinches a playoff spot with:

1) SD win OR

2) SD tie + BAL loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS (vs. Cleveland)

IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI

Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:

1) BAL win + CIN loss OR

2) BAL win + SD loss or tie OR

3) BAL tie + SD loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER

Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:

1) BAL win + SD loss or tie OR

2) BAL tie + SD loss

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (vs. San Diego)

Kansas City clinches a playoff spot with:

1) KC win + BAL loss + HOU loss or tie

HOUSTON TEXANS (vs. Jacksonville)

Houston clinches a playoff spot with:

1) HOU win + BAL loss + SD loss

NFC

CLINCHED:
Arizona Cardinals – playoff berth
Seattle Seahawks – playoff berth
Detroit Lions – playoff berth
Green Bay Packers – playoff berth
Dallas Cowboys – NFC East

DALLAS COWBOYS (at Washington)

Dallas clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) DAL win + ARI loss or tie + DET/GB tie

Dallas clinches a first-round bye with:

1) DAL win + SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie OR

2) DAL win + DET/GB tie OR

3) DAL tie + SEA loss + ARI loss OR

4) DAL tie + SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + DET/GB does not end in a tie

DETROIT LIONS (at Green Bay)

Detroit clinches NFC North with:

1) DET win or tie

Detroit clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) DET win + SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie OR

2) DET tie + SEA loss + ARI loss + DAL loss or tie

Detroit clinches a first-round bye with:

1) DET win OR

2) DET tie + DAL loss or tie OR

3) DET tie + SEA loss + ARI loss

GREEN BAY PACKERS (vs. Detroit)

Green Bay clinches NFC North and a first-round bye with:

1) GB win

Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) GB win + SEA loss or tie

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (vs. St. Louis)

Seattle clinches NFC West with:

1) SEA win OR

2) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie OR

3) ARI loss

Seattle clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) SEA win + DET/GB game does not end in a tie OR

2) SEA win + DAL loss or tie OR

3) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + DAL loss or tie + GB/DET tie

Seattle clinches a first-round bye with:

1) SEA win OR

2) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + DAL loss OR

3) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + GB/DET tie

ARIZONA CARDINALS (at San Francisco)

Arizona clinches NFC West with:

1) ARI win + SEA loss or tie OR

2) ARI tie + SEA loss

Arizona clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) ARI win + SEA loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR

2) ARI tie + SEA loss + DAL loss or tie + GB/DET tie

Arizona clinches a first-round bye with:

1) ARI win + SEA loss or tie OR

2) ARI tie + SEA loss + DAL loss or tie OR

3) ARI tie + SEA loss + GB/DET tie

CAROLINA PANTHERS (at Atlanta)

Carolina clinches NFC South with:

1) CAR win or tie

ATLANTA FALCONS (vs. Carolina)

Atlanta clinches NFC South with:

1) ATL win

 

[DaveFan'51]

Souds like a "No Win" scenario for me, When the Rams Beat The 'Hags, we help the Cowboys, and the Cards!

 

[rhinobean]

Bah, Humbug!

 

[MrMotes]

CAROLINA PANTHERS (at Atlanta)

Carolina clinches NFC South with:

1) CAR win or tie

Maybe i'm crazy but New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina all have 6 wins. If Carolina and Atlanta tie and New Orleans beats TB, doesn't that give New Orleans the division?

Yet every scenario says New Orleans is eliminated and this one specifically says Carolina is in with a tie against Atlanta.

What the hell?

 

[Corbin]

We ever since the Chargers game I expected to play spoiler to the Shitgulls. I hope we bury them bitches regardless who it helps!

3-3 in the NFC West. LET'S GO!!

 

[woofwoofmo]

Maybe i'm crazy but New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina all have 6 wins. If Carolina and Atlanta tie and New Orleans beats TB, doesn't that give New Orleans the division?

Yet every scenario says New Orleans is eliminated and this one specifically says Carolina is in with a tie against Atlanta.

What the hell?

Carolina is 6-8-1, while Atlanta & Carolina are 6-9. A Carolina/Atlanta tie essentially is the same as a 7th win (1/2 game per tie), Carolina has a better division record than New Orleans, hence Carolina wins the division.

 

[MrMotes]

Just found this:

Panthers-Falcons tie would deliver division title to Carolina, in unusual way
Posted by Mike Florio on December 21, 2014, 5:00 PM EST

Getty Images
With the Falcons beating the Saints and the Panthers defeating the Browns, next week’s game between Carolina and Atlanta becomes the NFC South championship game.

But what if there’s a tie? That’s when it gets a little interesting.

A tie between the Panthers and Falcons would give the Panthers the edge over the Falcons, with Carolina’s 6-8-2 besting Atlanta’s 6-9. But if the Saints win to move to 7-9, what happens?

What happens is that the Saints and Panthers would, in the eyes of the NFL, be tied. The NFL considers a tie as one-half of a win; at 7-9 for the Saints and 6-8-2 for the Panthers, the two teams would have identical winning percentages of 43.75 percent. With the head-to-head tiebreaker a 1-1 split of their series, the Panthers would eke out the division tiebreaker with a 3-2-1 mark over the Saints’ 3-3 record.

So the Panthers win the division with a win or a tie. The Falcons need to win the game.

And now your day is complete.

It's kind of nuts if you ask me since 7/16 is a higher percentage than 6/14. Obviously an unlikely scenario but seems pretty ridiculous to me. How would a 7 win team lose out to a 6 win team?

 

[Angry Ram]

As long as the SB isn't NE and the shitchickens, I'll be happy.

 

[MrMotes]

I thought that too but if you check out the article i posted, that's not how the NFL does it.

And when i thought about it a little more, i realized my way was wrong. For example, a 11-5 team has a worse win percentage than a 10-4-2 team does. It flips depending if you're over or under .500.

Even though at first it seemed completely wrong to me, the way the NFL does it is pretty much the only way. The thing is, 1 tie is rare. A team having two ties in the same season is extremely rare and that's the only scenario where a team with less wins can have a better record than one with more...

 

[MrMotes]

Yeah. At first it seemed crazy to me that 7 win New Orleans (if they beat TB) would lose out to 6 win Carolina (if they were to tie this weekend). How could the team with less wins have the better record? But then i realized i had never really thought about a team having more than one tie in the NFL, and that was my bad. Imagine a team tying all 16 games while another team goes 2-14, clearly the all tie team would have the better record...