I was wrong about the Arizona game. I thought the Rams would win that one easily, but it didn't turn out that way. Maybe it is time for some reverse psychology. On paper, the schedule is super easy through the bye week and the Rams should be able to build a long winning streak and have momentum heading into the 2nd half of the season. Looking at some betting lines, the only game with a bigger favorite this week was the Bengals over the Titans. The Chargers haven't won a game all year and have had a ridiculous number of injuries. All the signs point to a Rams win, but after watching some video on the Chargers offense, I'm not so sure. I have a bad feeling about this one. This is a trap game.
1. Jim Harbaugh is the right coach for the Chargers this week. His old school, ground-based philosophy can help an undermanned team. Ask Blake Corum whether this style works. The Chargers were competitive vs the Bills, Seattle and Denver. It isn't like they've been blown out in every loss. Prior to the Week 7 games, there was a huge disparity between the Rams and Chargers in pass block win rate. The Rams were 8th best, while the Chargers ranked 30th, near the bottom of the NFL. In run block win rate, however, the Rams and Chargers were tied, both posting a 75% win rate. Since their starting LT (Slater) is out, they have had to use a 4th round rookie (Travis Bruke) at that spot, but he has a 79.5 PFF run blocking grade and the 2nd best run block win rate among OTs per ESPN. So, one thing the Chargers do pretty well is run block. The Chargers also give up coverage sacks and pressures, so I'm not convinced their OL is as bad as pass blocking as it might appear.
2. All 3 RBs are a factor. The team rushing stats for the Chargers aren't too impressive, but they have had so many injury issues with their OL, TEs and FB that this is understandable. I think the Bolts have the potential to be better in the run game than they've shown so far. Their best RB is probably the least heralded, Kimani Vidal, a former 6th round pick. His yards-after-contact per attempt is one of the best in the NFL, almost tied with Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker. He just doesn't have enough rushing attempts to qualify for the official stats. Omarion Hampton was a 1st round pick in 2025. He's struggled and some people are saying that he's a bust, but he's 3rd in the NFL in broken tackles per rush attempt. Keaton Mitchell has always been a personal favorite of mine. He's fast and explosive but the Chargers haven't given him enough lanes to break more big ones. He's still dangerous and on kickoffs if we make a mistake in coverage, he could break a long one. Derius Davis has struggled returning punts, but he had a long PR TD against the Rams back in 2023 during his rookie season.
3. Beware of the blocking fullbacks. Their TE Njoku being hurt is a problem, because I think their other TE Kolar is a terrible run blocker. They added Alec Ingold, a FB, but he got hurt too. Slater got hurt. Biadasz their starting center got hurt in the preseason. Penning, who is a former 1st rounder who was a road grader in college is hurt. Veteran Pipkins is hurt. Joe Alt suffered a neck injury on a strange play when an airborne defender coming from the opposite direction collided with his head. Their starting LG has been out. Kolar had a broken arm. One of the other FBs just came back from IR. They poached a TE off another team's PS due to all their TE injuries. Crazy string of injuries.
Even through all those challenges, when they put 2 FBs (I'm calling them FBs even though one of them is listed as a TE, because he's more like a FB) on the field together, the Chargers can add some punch right at the POA.
4. Their OL are mobile. Snead and McVay wanted to draft Cole Strange but were shocked when he went late in the 1st round in 2022. Strange has mostly struggled in the pros and at one point he suffered a serious leg injury. He has a terrible 47 PFF overall grade and a 38.1 run blocking grade. Jake Slaughter, a 2nd round rookie who has replaced Biadasz at center, only has a slightly higher PFF grade. I think both of those players have some issues blocking in general but they both have good movement skills, allowing the Chargers to run both inside and outside. I don't care about the PFF grades, they are still a threat on gap scheme pulls and sealing us off on zone blocks.
5. Herbert can still deal. Ladd McConkey had a concussion but should be able to play vs the Rams. He also got injured in their 1st game, which I think is one of the factors behind their offensive woes. Herbert's stats are terrible. He's dead last in QBR at 29.3 Going all the way back through the 2017 NFL season, there have only been 3 QBs who have posted worse QBRs: Will Levis in 2004, Baker Mayfield playing for the Rams in 2022 and Josh Rosen in 2018. The tape is kinder to Herbert than the box score. Due to all their injuries, I think a key problem with their offense is they haven't had a reliable "glue guy", a possession WR who can get open and create high percentage easier throws for the QB. If the team around him can get healthier, Herberts stats should improve. Part of the problem is they played Denver and Seattle, so those defenses skew the numbers.
6. Their D can stop the Rams. On the other side of the ledger, the Chargers rank 3rd in run stop win rate. Tuli Tuipulotu and Teair Tart are both among the league leaders at their positions (OLB and DT with Tuipulotu ranking 1st) at RSWR. Their D looked good vs Mahomes and the Chiefs. Plenty of pass rush pressure, creative stunts and blitzes. Similar to Josh Allen vs the Rams, the stats didn't look good because Mahomes can flip bad plays into good plays for KC with his individual talent. Kenneth Walker broke a long run on a play where I thought they defended it pretty well. Even with Derwin James having been out, they have other good players at all 3 levels of the defense. Per PFR stats, they have a better pressure rate and a better yards-per-rush average than the Rams. They are 3rd best in the NFL in QB knockdown rate. The Rams are one of the worst defenses at the rate they create turnovers (27th), while the Chargers rank 10th.
Their DC in 2025, Jesse Minter, left to become the new HC for the Ravens, but the new DC (O"Leary) seems to have things under control. I find it interesting how people talk about Shula vs O'Leary. The Rams are 4th in the NFL in defensive yards per play. The Chargers are 17th. The Rams are one of the least penalized defenses while the Chargers are one of the worst in terms of penalty yardage. When you add up all the factors, PFR's expected rate has the Rams and Chargers virtually tied in defensive effectiveness. Yet, O'Leary has been seen as a bright spot in a bad Chargers season while many Rams fans are critical of Shula.
We ran the ball effectively vs the Raiders, mostly because we were able to push their DL off of the LOS or lock them up so that they couldn't plug the run lane. The Chargers have some strong dudes up front, including Dalvin Tomlinson, Tart and Khalil Mack, so it won't be as easy this week. Parkinson is banged up and hasn't played as well as normal lately. We continue to struggle against twists. I don't think we are just going to steamroll their defense.
I expect the Chargers to try to "Fisherball" the Rams. Run the ball, melt the clock to shorten the game, try to keep it low scoring, make a special teams play, win ugly. They have the right ingredients to play that style and some of the weaknesses of the Rams (special teams errors, run defense, offensive turnovers) make us vulnerable against that strategy. I'll say 17-14 Chargers. At a key moment in the 4th quarter, we'll miss a FG attempt.
1. Jim Harbaugh is the right coach for the Chargers this week. His old school, ground-based philosophy can help an undermanned team. Ask Blake Corum whether this style works. The Chargers were competitive vs the Bills, Seattle and Denver. It isn't like they've been blown out in every loss. Prior to the Week 7 games, there was a huge disparity between the Rams and Chargers in pass block win rate. The Rams were 8th best, while the Chargers ranked 30th, near the bottom of the NFL. In run block win rate, however, the Rams and Chargers were tied, both posting a 75% win rate. Since their starting LT (Slater) is out, they have had to use a 4th round rookie (Travis Bruke) at that spot, but he has a 79.5 PFF run blocking grade and the 2nd best run block win rate among OTs per ESPN. So, one thing the Chargers do pretty well is run block. The Chargers also give up coverage sacks and pressures, so I'm not convinced their OL is as bad as pass blocking as it might appear.
2. All 3 RBs are a factor. The team rushing stats for the Chargers aren't too impressive, but they have had so many injury issues with their OL, TEs and FB that this is understandable. I think the Bolts have the potential to be better in the run game than they've shown so far. Their best RB is probably the least heralded, Kimani Vidal, a former 6th round pick. His yards-after-contact per attempt is one of the best in the NFL, almost tied with Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker. He just doesn't have enough rushing attempts to qualify for the official stats. Omarion Hampton was a 1st round pick in 2025. He's struggled and some people are saying that he's a bust, but he's 3rd in the NFL in broken tackles per rush attempt. Keaton Mitchell has always been a personal favorite of mine. He's fast and explosive but the Chargers haven't given him enough lanes to break more big ones. He's still dangerous and on kickoffs if we make a mistake in coverage, he could break a long one. Derius Davis has struggled returning punts, but he had a long PR TD against the Rams back in 2023 during his rookie season.
3. Beware of the blocking fullbacks. Their TE Njoku being hurt is a problem, because I think their other TE Kolar is a terrible run blocker. They added Alec Ingold, a FB, but he got hurt too. Slater got hurt. Biadasz their starting center got hurt in the preseason. Penning, who is a former 1st rounder who was a road grader in college is hurt. Veteran Pipkins is hurt. Joe Alt suffered a neck injury on a strange play when an airborne defender coming from the opposite direction collided with his head. Their starting LG has been out. Kolar had a broken arm. One of the other FBs just came back from IR. They poached a TE off another team's PS due to all their TE injuries. Crazy string of injuries.
Even through all those challenges, when they put 2 FBs (I'm calling them FBs even though one of them is listed as a TE, because he's more like a FB) on the field together, the Chargers can add some punch right at the POA.
4. Their OL are mobile. Snead and McVay wanted to draft Cole Strange but were shocked when he went late in the 1st round in 2022. Strange has mostly struggled in the pros and at one point he suffered a serious leg injury. He has a terrible 47 PFF overall grade and a 38.1 run blocking grade. Jake Slaughter, a 2nd round rookie who has replaced Biadasz at center, only has a slightly higher PFF grade. I think both of those players have some issues blocking in general but they both have good movement skills, allowing the Chargers to run both inside and outside. I don't care about the PFF grades, they are still a threat on gap scheme pulls and sealing us off on zone blocks.
5. Herbert can still deal. Ladd McConkey had a concussion but should be able to play vs the Rams. He also got injured in their 1st game, which I think is one of the factors behind their offensive woes. Herbert's stats are terrible. He's dead last in QBR at 29.3 Going all the way back through the 2017 NFL season, there have only been 3 QBs who have posted worse QBRs: Will Levis in 2004, Baker Mayfield playing for the Rams in 2022 and Josh Rosen in 2018. The tape is kinder to Herbert than the box score. Due to all their injuries, I think a key problem with their offense is they haven't had a reliable "glue guy", a possession WR who can get open and create high percentage easier throws for the QB. If the team around him can get healthier, Herberts stats should improve. Part of the problem is they played Denver and Seattle, so those defenses skew the numbers.
6. Their D can stop the Rams. On the other side of the ledger, the Chargers rank 3rd in run stop win rate. Tuli Tuipulotu and Teair Tart are both among the league leaders at their positions (OLB and DT with Tuipulotu ranking 1st) at RSWR. Their D looked good vs Mahomes and the Chiefs. Plenty of pass rush pressure, creative stunts and blitzes. Similar to Josh Allen vs the Rams, the stats didn't look good because Mahomes can flip bad plays into good plays for KC with his individual talent. Kenneth Walker broke a long run on a play where I thought they defended it pretty well. Even with Derwin James having been out, they have other good players at all 3 levels of the defense. Per PFR stats, they have a better pressure rate and a better yards-per-rush average than the Rams. They are 3rd best in the NFL in QB knockdown rate. The Rams are one of the worst defenses at the rate they create turnovers (27th), while the Chargers rank 10th.
Their DC in 2025, Jesse Minter, left to become the new HC for the Ravens, but the new DC (O"Leary) seems to have things under control. I find it interesting how people talk about Shula vs O'Leary. The Rams are 4th in the NFL in defensive yards per play. The Chargers are 17th. The Rams are one of the least penalized defenses while the Chargers are one of the worst in terms of penalty yardage. When you add up all the factors, PFR's expected rate has the Rams and Chargers virtually tied in defensive effectiveness. Yet, O'Leary has been seen as a bright spot in a bad Chargers season while many Rams fans are critical of Shula.
We ran the ball effectively vs the Raiders, mostly because we were able to push their DL off of the LOS or lock them up so that they couldn't plug the run lane. The Chargers have some strong dudes up front, including Dalvin Tomlinson, Tart and Khalil Mack, so it won't be as easy this week. Parkinson is banged up and hasn't played as well as normal lately. We continue to struggle against twists. I don't think we are just going to steamroll their defense.
I expect the Chargers to try to "Fisherball" the Rams. Run the ball, melt the clock to shorten the game, try to keep it low scoring, make a special teams play, win ugly. They have the right ingredients to play that style and some of the weaknesses of the Rams (special teams errors, run defense, offensive turnovers) make us vulnerable against that strategy. I'll say 17-14 Chargers. At a key moment in the 4th quarter, we'll miss a FG attempt.
