New England Patriots
While the 2021 offseason included many additions that helped reshape the New England Patriots' identity and roster, this offseason had numerous key departures. The Patriots' spending spree last year locked them into the same core until next offseason.
It's a solid roster, but losing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will be massive.
With a win-line total of 8.5 and Super Bowl odds at +4000, the Patriots aren't expected to be world-beaters. But, the AFC East is ascending around New England while it has largely stood pat. It's hard to imagine Miami Dolphins castoff receiver DeVante Parker or one of the Patriots' draft picks turning the offense into an above-average unit.
The lack of wild cards on the roster is especially notable. The players with the most upside to beat their expectations would be 2022 second-round receiver Tyquan Thornton and 2021 third round edge-rusher Ronnie Perkins. Barring a huge return on either that helps transform the identity of either offense or defense, betting on Miami or the New York Jets to overachieve is a better option.
Where New England wins is consistency. Mac Jones isn't a dynamic passer, and his weapons are mediocre. However, the Patriots have a high floor because of their powerful running game and Bill Belichick's masterful defensive coaching.
That doesn't equate to a breakout 2022, though. New England will be a pesky test for poorly coached teams, but more talented rosters with dynamic playmakers should find ways to win.