http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/pag...ns-guide-best-games-fantasy-outlook-more-2018
Key Matchups Week 3
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
Point spread: ATL -3
| Matchup quality: 63.6 (of 100)
Mike Triplett's pick: I had this projected as a loss for the Saints every time we published our schedule predictions this offseason. But the Falcons are so banged up right now with the losses of LB
Deion Jones, S
Keanu Neal, RB
Devonta Freeman and G
Andy Levitre that it feels like much more of a toss-up. I'll stick with the Falcons since New Orleans hasn't put together a clean performance yet, with a defensive flop in Week 1 and an offensive dud in Week 2.
Falcons 27, Saints 26
Vaughn McClure's pick: This one has the potential to be a high-scoring affair with
Matt Ryan and
Drew Brees going head-to-head. The Saints are giving up more than 10 yards per catch. If
Julio Jones (calf) is healthy, Ryan spreads the ball around like he did against the Panthers and the Falcons establish
Tevin Coleman in the running game, they should have enough firepower to withstand the Saints at home.
Falcons 35, Saints 31
FPI win projection: ATL, 64 percent. With Tampa off to a surprising 2-0 start, the stakes for this early-season NFC South matchup are raised, particularly for the Saints. If New Orleans were to fall, FPI would give the Saints a 5.9 percent chance to rally for the division crown. Atlanta has a little more room for error in FPI's estimation, as a loss would only drop the Falcons to a 23.6 percent chance.
What to watch for in fantasy: Coleman might be just as good as Freeman -- and there's a chance the Falcons just stick with him.
Read more.
Falcons love to play the rival Saints ...
Saints need Marshon Lattimore at his best vs. Julio Jones
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
Point spread: PHI -6.5
| Matchup quality: 57.4 (of 100)
Mike Wells' pick: Colts quarterback
Andrew Luck could have continued success through the air, as the Eagles have allowed an average of 309 yards passing in two games. It's uncertain which
Carson Wentz will show up for the Eagles, as the quarterback is playing his first game since tearing his ACL in December. These haven't been the same Eagles so far, but they get the edge because of Wentz's return.
Eagles 28, Colts 20
Tim McManus' pick: It's easy to forget just how good Wentz was last season in every situation. He boasted the best QBR in the red zone, on third down and outside the pocket, per ESPN Stats & Information data, and was deadly against the blitz, throwing for 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. There might be some rust, but Wentz's return will raise the Eagles' play to another level.
Eagles 30, Colts 17
FPI win projection: PHI, 73 percent. Through two weeks, Luck has the second-fewest air yards in the league, ahead of only
Derek Carr. It's a small sample, but that's not where he has been in past seasons.
What to watch for in fantasy: Only the Saints and Titans have allowed more fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season than the Eagles. Enter
T.Y. Hilton.
Read more.
Frank Reich brings some of the Philly way to Indianapolis...
Rookie Darius Leonard quickly becoming anchor of Colts defense ...
A mental coach, marriage and more: Inside Wentz's comeback ...
Wentz setting bar high for debut versus Colts
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
Point spread: KC -6
| Matchup quality: 51.9 (of 100)
Nick Wagoner's pick: Niners quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo has a chance to get on track against Kansas City's league-worst pass defense (allowing 430 yards per game), but San Francisco is banged up in the secondary and the Chiefs boast the type of weapons that create matchup nightmares all over the field, especially for a Niners defense that struggles to generate consistent pass rush.
Chiefs 37, 49ers 31
Adam Teicher's pick: With both teams toward the bottom of the league in total defense (49ers at 23rd, Chiefs sitting in 32nd) and scoring defense (49ers tied for 20th, Chiefs at 29th), expect an offensive shootout. The 49ers don't have the arsenal to keep up with the Chiefs in Kansas City's home opener.
Patrick Mahomes is second in the NFL in passer rating (143.3) and Garoppolo is 26th (77.4).
Chiefs 34, 49ers 28
FPI win projection: KC, 65 percent. There was a fear before the season that the Chiefs' defense would be a major liability. It's easy to forget in the midst of Mahomes-mania, but so far, the defense has been a problem, ranking 30th in unit efficiency.
What to watch for in fantasy: Matt Breida has played seven fewer snaps than
Alfred Morris, but he leads the league in rushing through two weeks. Still, he'll need an uptick in volume in order to sustain RB2 production.
Read more.
Breida making a case for bigger workload ...
Sunday, speedy Sunday set for Marquise Goodwin, Tyreek Hill ...
Hill wants to be more than just fast ...
How Mahomes is keeping his many hungry receivers fed
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
Point spread: GB -3
| Matchup quality: 54.9 (of 100)
Rob Demovsky's pick: The Packers were 1-of-5 in the red zone in Week 2. It's hard to imagine an
Aaron Rodgers-led offense coming up that short again, especially against a Redskins team that's tied for 25th in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 80 percent of opponents' possessions inside the 20-yard line.
Packers 27, Redskins 23
John Keim's pick: The Redskins allowed 9 of 16 third downs to be converted and managed just 5 of 15 themselves. They were 0-for-2 in the red zone and allowed 3-for-3 by the Colts. The real culprit was the running game, where their backs managed a combined 21 yards on 15 carries. They're also getting banged up and that's a big concern, especially along the offensive line.
Packers 24, Redskins 21
FPI win projection: WSH, 52 percent. Comparisons between the first two QBs taken in the 2005 draft will always be present, but who comes out on top when they play head-to-head? Rodgers leads the series 2-1 and has a 70.9 Total QBR to
Alex Smith's 44.2. Even with that, FPI has this as the tightest game of Week 3, slightly favoring the home Redskins.
What to watch for in fantasy:
Aaron Jones is back from suspension, and he is the most explosive RB option the Packers have. He could seize the starting gig this week.
Read more.
Rodgers' lack of mobility wasn't (and won't be) a factor...
Smith and Rodgers will always be linked by 2005 draft