Tag-and-trade blueprint is there for Rams and Dante Fowler Jr.

[Riverumbbq]

Cameron DaSilva
6 hours ago


Navigating the waters of free agency this year could prove difficult for the Los Angeles Rams, who not only have several players on expiring contracts, but also a lack of spending money available to keep them all.
As a result, the team – specifically the defense – could look very different in 2020. Dante Fowler Jr., Cory Littleton and Michael Brockers are three of the Rams’ biggest free agents, and it’s possible all three will be playing elsewhere next season. Sure, Los Angeles could get compensatory picks in the 2021 draft for losing them, but there’s another way the team can get compensated for one of those players.

As we saw last year with three edge rushers, the tag-and-trade route is one approach that can prove to be effective in getting a draft pick (or two) in return for a player bound to leave in free agency. In 2019 alone, Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford and Frank Clark were all franchise tagged and then traded by their respective teams.

Here’s how each trade broke down:
Jadeveon Clowney
Texans receive: Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo, 2020 third-round pick
Seahawks receive: Clowney

Dee Ford
Chiefs receive: 2020 second-round pick
49ers receive: Ford

Frank Clark
Seahawks receive: 2019 first-round pick, 2020 second-round pick, 2019 third-round pick
Chiefs receive: Clark, 2019 third-round pick


After looking at those trades, it’s hard not to imagine the Rams taking a similar path with Fowler. He doesn’t have the track record that Clark had, posting 32 sacks in the three years before being dealt. Fowler also doesn’t have the versatility or potential that Clowney had when he was with the Texans. He’s probably closer to Ford, but two and a half years younger at the time of hitting free agency.
So, could the Rams tag Fowler and trade him to a team willing to give up a draft pick or two? Absolutely, especially with the price difference between a defensive end and linebacker, which will make Fowler’s one-year tag much cheaper than it could have been if he were playing defensive end.

(Photo by Alex Davidson/Getty Images)

According to Over The Cap, the projected franchise tag value for a DE is $19.32 million. For a linebacker, which Fowler technically is, it’s $16.27 million. Considering the Rams gave Fowler a one-year, $14 million deal last year after he only had four sacks in 2018, it’s absolutely reasonable to think a team would be willing to pay him $16.27 million for the 2020 season.

Because he’s only 25 and won’t turn 26 until August, Fowler is still entering his prime. He posted a career-high 11.5 sacks, 58 tackles, 16 tackles for loss and 16 quarterback hits this past season, proving to be the player the Rams thought he’d become when they extended him last offseason.
A player with those numbers is going to be coveted on the free-agent market, so it’s likely a team would be willing to part with a second- or third-round pick in a tag-and-trade scenario.
That would also give the team trading for Fowler the ability to negotiate a long-term deal with him, too – assuming the trade happens before the July 15 franchise tender deadline.
Ford and Clark both did, but Clowney’s trade came in September, so the Seahawks only got him for one season. Ford’s extension with the 49ers was worth $85 million for five years, while Clark’s was for $105.5 million over five years.

Fowler’s value is probably going to be somewhere in the range of $16 million per year, which after seeing the contracts Ford and Clark got, doesn’t seem like an inflated price. It’s also one a team will absolutely be willing to pay.
The Rams adding a second- or third-round pick would be a huge help for their draft haul, since they don’t have a first-rounder in 2020 (or 2021). It would give them another top-100 selection, and allow them added flexibility if they want to move up from their first selection at No. 52.

If they begin to realize they can’t afford Fowler, there’s no question they should consider tagging him and trading him elsewhere.

Tag-and-trade blueprint is there for Rams and Dante Fowler Jr.

If the Rams can’t extend Dante Fowler Jr. long-term, they could tag and trade him.

theramswire.usatoday.com

 

[Riverumbbq]

A little late to the party, but sports media are at least catching on ...

 

[Ram65]

A little late to the party, but sports media are at least catching on ...

You have been saying this for a while now. Nice call. I hope they can get a 2nd or better for him.

There still is a risk IIRC they have to take the tag money off the cap when they tag him. That won't leave a lot of room to maneuver. If they can't get a deal they are stuck with a high price tag they can't afford. I have faith that Snead and Demoff will do the right thing. If a team wants to sign Fowler to a long term deal maybe this can get done early. Ford was traded on March 12th while Clark was traded on April 23rd just before the draft on April 25th. So it's a good possibility they can get something for Fowler. They could be working on it as I type this!

 

[OnceARam]

If we got a 3rd out of Fowler, Less would be a genius.

Unfortunately, I doubt this will happen given that we have no powder in the keg and our "tag" is an empty threat, especially given that we need every dime we have to sign Ramsey.

 

[Riverumbbq]

You have been saying this for a while now. Nice call. I hope they can get a 2nd or better for him.

There still is a risk IIRC they have to take the tag money off the cap when they tag him. That won't leave a lot of room to maneuver. If they can't get a deal they are stuck with a high price tag they can't afford. I have faith that Snead and Demoff will do the right thing. If a team wants to sign Fowler to a long term deal maybe this can get done early. Ford was traded on March 12th while Clark was traded on April 23rd just before the draft on April 25th. So it's a good possibility they can get something for Fowler. They could be working on it as I type this!

I wasn't the first to broach the subject, I believe that honor belongs with @PhillyRam in this thread :

2020 Trade Bait ?

OK, we've already heard what I believe are some unrealistic trade options for our team, and we'd all like to either increase our CAP availability, increase our number of draft picks, or both. Besides the name-brand guys like Fowler, Littleton, Brockers & Whitworth likely being lost to free...

ramsondemand.com

I understand the concern for risk, although I still see it as minimal. Even if Fowler were to sign the Tag, he could still be traded fairly easily imo. Anything above a late 3'rd round pick is a win as that's likely what we'd receive anyway as a compensation prize in 2021.

 

[jrry32]

I think we'll tag Fowler. We might keep him, or we might trade him. If we do trade him, I think we could land a 2nd and a future pick (2021 4th or 5th imo).

 

[PhillyRam]

I think we'll tag Fowler. We might keep him, or we might trade him. If we do trade him, I think we could land a 2nd and a future pick (2021 4th or 5th imo).

The ideal scenario is to get a pick next yr as well since they traded their 2021 4th & 5th plus the 1st.

So even if you can only get a high 3rd this year, if you can also get a 4th next yr, that works out fine.

Then you are still likely to get 3 comp picks next yr. That will replenish the 2021 draft capital.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Value wise, I consider Fowler every bit worth a high 2020 2'nd. round draft pick.
The league now has some new Head Coaches who are going to want to reload, and some with more available CAP than draft picks, so I look to those teams first.
jmo.

 

[PhillyRam]

Value wise, I consider Fowler every bit worth a high 2020 2'nd. round draft pick.
The league now has some new Head Coaches who are going to want to reload, and some with more available CAP than draft picks, so I look to those teams first.
jmo.

Cap rich AFC teams like the Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, and especially the Browns if Wade goes there.

All have $50M or more right now before any cuts.

 

[PhillyRam]

....and they probably only tag and trade if they restructure Goff so they have extra cap room in case he doesn't get moved immediately.

Plus it keeps teams from having leverage by waiting them out and forcing them to settle for less in return. Because the Rams will not want to tie up all their cap room waiting for a trade.

 

[Riverumbbq]

....and they probably only tag and trade if they restructure Goff so they have extra cap room in case he doesn't get moved immediately.

Plus it keeps teams from having leverage by waiting them out and forcing them to settle for less in return. Because the Rams will not want to tie up all their cap room waiting for a trade.

I think the Rams would rescind the tag before they let that happen. They should discover fairly quickly about Fowler's interest from other teams, and even in the off-chance Fowler were to sign the Tag without exploring the market, it doesn't seem logical that he or his agent would want to take such a risk to his being injured on a one year rental contract.jmo.

 

[jrry32]

The ideal scenario is to get a pick next yr as well since they traded their 2021 4th & 5th plus the 1st.

So even if you can only get a high 3rd this year, if you can also get a 4th next yr, that works out fine.

Then you are still likely to get 3 comp picks next yr. That will replenish the 2021 draft capital.

3 comp picks might be a tall order.


I must disagree. Clark obviously got significantly more in compensation because he's a better player. Clowney didn't bring back much because he couldn't be re-signed. But I think Ford isn't a bad comparison. Ford was a bit more productive and proven, but Fowler is three years younger and a better run defender. Pass rushers are always at a premium, and Fowler is a 25 year old who can play all three downs and seems to be coming into his own.

 

[PhillyRam]

3 comp picks might be a tall order.



I must disagree. Clark obviously got significantly more in compensation because he's a better player. Clowney didn't bring back much because he couldn't be re-signed. But I think Ford isn't a bad comparison. Ford was a bit more productive and proven, but Fowler is three years younger and a better run defender. Pass rushers are always at a premium, and Fowler is a 25 year old who can play all three downs and seems to be coming into his own.

Littleton, Brockers, Blythe, Christian, Zuerlein, will all get deals that would qualify.

People overlook Christian.... Young player, playing box safety/LB, which is becoming an important role. He will get a nice offer that would net a 5th/6th rounder.

Brockers maybe a 4th/5th

Littleton a 3rd

Blythe a 6th

Zuerlein maybe a 6th

That's five picks and say the Rams add two outside FAs... The net is 3.

And Rams could target released players to reduce the chance of cancelling a pick.

 

[jrry32]

Littleton, Brockers, Blythe, Christian, Zuerlein, will all get deals that would qualify.

People overlook Christian.... Young player, playing box safety/LB, which is becoming an important role. He will get a nice offer that would net a 5th/6th rounder.

Brockers maybe a 4th/5th

Littleton a 3rd

Blythe a 6th

Zuerlein maybe a 6th

That's five picks and say the Rams add two outside FAs... The net is 3.

And Rams could target released players to reduce the chance of cancelling a pick.

This assumes we don't sign anyone. I expect us to re-sign Zuerlein. If we sign a bargain FA, that likely costs us the Brockers or Blythe comp pick. Assuming we sign one cheaper FA, I think we'd end up with a 3rd or 4th for Littleton and maybe a later round pick for Blythe or Bortles. I highly doubt Christian is netting us a comp pick.

 

[PhillyRam]

This assumes we don't sign anyone. I expect us to re-sign Zuerlein. If we sign a bargain FA, that likely costs us the Brockers or Blythe comp pick. Assuming we sign one cheaper FA, I think we'd end up with a 3rd or 4th for Littleton and maybe a later round pick for Blythe or Bortles. I highly doubt Christian is netting us a comp pick.

Look at last yrs cancelation chart. Look at where some guys were rated with the deals they got. Now some are shown as being canceled out by their teams signings, but it shows you where their contracts were rated in terms if comp picks.

If Ereck Flowers, Branden Bolden, & Eric Rowe, among others can get deals worthy of picks, then a 26 yr old Christian can.

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

 

[Mackeyser]

See, when I break down film on those guys (admittedly not as much on Ford), I see Fowler as MUCH better than Clowney who not only disappears, but has mental lapses that really hurt the team (see their latest loss). I also like him better than Ford as he's substantially better at setting the edge.

Among those four, I think Fowler is the best in run D and second only to Ford in pure pass rushing and maybe first in creating pressure while maintaining rush/pocket discipline. He's the opposite of Matthews in that regard who seems to abandon his contain responsibilities every play if it means biting on an inside handoff.

Now, I dunno what the NFL is seeing, but that's what I see.

I also think that Fowler's young age (which should allow him to fulfill a 6 year contract and maintain his high level of play) will make a difference.

I'd be over the moon if we could keep him, but I think Littleton and Ramsey are bigger priorities.

Well, I don't expect Ramsey to be extended due to the CBA issues and we'll resign him once the CBA is finalized. Ramsey would be crazy to sign now, anyway, especially since the cap in 2021 might be significantly higher and/or the cap structure could be different enough to allow much more money going forward. His salary is locked in for this coming season, anyway.

If I were Littleton, I'd ASKED to be tagged. That 2021 money has the potential to be much bigger.

I think players signing bigger contracts this year who are younger (those 2nd contract guys) are gonna have remorse a year from now.

 

[jrry32]

Look at last yrs cancelation chart. Look at where some guys were rated with the deals they got. Now some are shown as being canceled out by their teams signings, but it shows you where their contracts were rated in terms if comp picks.

If Ereck Flowers, Branden Bolden, & Eric Rowe, among others can get deals worthy of picks, then a 26 yr old Christian can.

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

You can see the deals that are projected to result in comp picks:

NFL Draft Resources and Contract Estimates

NFL draft resources including rookie contract estimates, compensatory pick projections, and draft order

overthecap.com

The key to getting a 7th rounder seems to be not having your low-level guys get cancelled out. But I still have my doubts about Christian. Frankly, I don't think he's any good and wouldn't sign him for more than the NFL minimum. Maybe somebody out there disagrees.

 

[Ram65]

2024 NFL Important Dates | NFL Football Operations

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Fowler had a good year. It could have been better but, he did miss some chances for big plays. I don't see him as a great one on one beat a tackle for a sack pass rusher. This will be a slippery slope for Demoff and Snead. Demoff will have to find the cap space. Rams are around 20 Million before accounting for incentives and bonuses from 2019. Everything happening at the same. This will be interesting to see unfold if Rams try the tag and trade.

The first thing is how much cap room can Demoff get to work with?

Would Rams have a deal in place for Whitworth to sign after Fowler is traded?