Something I Don't Get About Red Zone Expectations...

[Loyal]

Our offense was one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL, and I think they have been #1 in making "big plays." But, they often get hammered for red zone efficiency. It pisses people off when the kick FG's, even though kicking FG's is so important in point totals.

Don't opposing defenses get paid too? If a team averages 30+ points a game in this day and age, it doesn't get much better than that in an NFL driving towards parity. Is it an unreal expectation for the Rams to score TD's every time in the red zone? if it isn't, are you saying that our average per game should be 40+ points a game?

 

[CGI_Ram]

Yeah, some stats are funny like that.

If your offense blows, and you don’t reach the RZ much, but you convert reasonably well... doesn’t exactly translate to being the better offense.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

In Super Bowl 34 the Rams scored 3 field goals. Early. Then later two TDS. It allowed the Titans to stay in the game and almost tie it in the final seconds. Just one TD instead of a field goal makes a huge difference in that game.

In the NFCC game the Rams held the Saints to two early field goals. That kept the score close enough for the Rams to stay in the game and ultimately tie it. Just one TD instead of a field goal again makes a huge difference.


I’d rather see Zeurlien late in the game than early. Building a big early lead is preferable. I like 21-0 better than 9-0

 

[RAMblin Man]

In Super Bowl 34 the Rams scored 3 field goals. Early. Then later two TDS. It allowed the Titans to stay in the game and almost tie it in the final seconds. Just one TD instead of a field goal makes a huge difference in that game.

In the NFCC game the Rams held the Saints to two early field goals. That kept the score close enough for the Rams to stay in the game and ultimately tie it. Just one TD instead of a field goal again makes a huge difference.


I’d rather see Zeurlien late in the game than early. Building a big early lead is preferable. I like 21-0 better than 9-0

Would you prefer 10-0 on 50% efficiency or 7-0 on 100% efficiency?

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Would you prefer 10-0 on 50% efficiency or 7-0 on 100% efficiency?

%100

 

[Ram65]

Our offense was one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL, and I think they have been #1 in making "big plays." But, they often get hammered for red zone efficiency. It pisses people off when the kick FG's, even though kicking FG's is so important in point totals.

Don't opposing defenses get paid too? If a team averages 30+ points a game in this day and age, it doesn't get much better than that in an NFL driving towards parity. Is it an unreal expectation for the Rams to score TD's every time in the red zone? if it isn't, are you saying that our average per game should be 40+ points a game?

Yeah, some stats are funny like that.

If your offense blows, and you don’t reach the RZ much, but you convert reasonably well... doesn’t exactly translate to being the better offense.

It's about missed opportunities. I've mentioned the 57% TD rate in the red zone a number of times. Not sure why they picked the 20 yard line as the red zone line. Would numbers be much different if it was at the 25 or 30 yard lines? In any event here are some links and with numbers.


https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

Rams 56.82% rank 19
Steelers 73.47% rank 1
Chiefs at 73.08% rank 2

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-attempts-per-game

The number of times in the red zone per game
Rams 4.9
Chiefs 4.3
Steelers 3.1


https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scores-per-game

Red zone TDs per game
Chiefs 3.2
Rams 2.8
Steelers 2.2

Even though the Rams are in the RZ .6 times more per game average than the Chiefs they average .4 less TDs. Sure, the Rams score more TDs than the Steelers by .6, but it takes a whopping 1.8 more opportunities. If the Rams scored TDs at the Chiefs rate .7308 x 4.9 they would jump to 3.58 TDs a game. That is .78 more TDs a game. At 7 points for TD vs 3 points for a FG it amounts to 5.46 vs 2.34 points per game. That is more than a FG at 3.12 points per game average. The physiological boost for teams holding opponents to 3 point FGs can't be over stated. The momentum ebb and flow of an NFL game often follows red zone failures and successes. It is great the Rams are the leader in the red zone attempts but, a better TD percentage adds more points and momentum.