So, how does one best evaluate a draft, anyway?

[Rams43]

Yeah, best wait for 3 years, I know. But what if one wants to get a “head start”, so to speak? I’m not waiting, dammit!

How about a team simply getting good value at each pick? Rather than comparing one team’s 1st to another team’s 2nd, for example? Some evaluators actually sometimes do that.

And what if a shrewd GM could make trade downs to gain extra picks and STILL get contributors and promising players for the future? Wouldn’t that be great, too?

So, how have Snead and McVay done so far?

Let’s see...

2017. [www.si.com]

1st was part of Goff trade. Good value, wouldn’t you say? Technically, McVay had no part of that. Gotta give Snead the glory there. Then again, wasn’t it McVay that turned Goff around from a “bust” into a Pro Bowler?

2nd was Everett. Kinda iffy so far. Might go either way, but hardly impressive.

3rd was Kupp. A steal for sure.

Next 3rd was Johnson. Another steal that Wade’s still smiling about.

4th was Reynolds. Another iffy pick that I loved at the time but now might go either way.

Next 4th was Ebukam. Gonna be a starter this year so he was clearly excellent value there.

Rest of ‘17 draft looks like JAGS at this point. But part of Goff trade, Kupp, JJ, and Ebu makes this a value laden draft by anyone’s estimation.

2018. [www.si.com]

Hoo boy!

1st was traded for Cooks. A HR in my book. A for sure top WR that’s a perfect fit for McVay’s O while still young and a locker room plus for a pick that would be statistically a 50% starter? Dang!

A ‘19 2nd was traded away for Marcus Peters. Here again, a young and proven All Pro caliber player for a future pick that was statistically 35% likely to be a mere starter. And fears about him being disruptive have been laid to rest, as well. Hot Damn!

2nd was traded away for the failed Watkins experiment. Oops! Not a resume enhancer, to be kind. Big mistake there. Sigh...

3rd was Noteboom. So far, looks like excellent value. A probable future starter. As in next year, possibly even a quality (and very inexpensive) LOT. Wouldn’t THAT be something?

First 4th was Brian Allen. I dunno. Could be a future C, but not a sure thing just yet. Still, for a 4th? Pretty good value, I think. Stay tuned.

Second 4th was Franklin-Myers. Lotta good buzz from camp. It appears that he will be a heavy contributor in the rotation. Outstanding value, no doubt.

5th was Micah Kiser. Are you kidding me? Sure showed up in that Ravens game and possibly a future starter in this league. Love the value in a 5th rounder.

First 6th was John Kelly. Everybody loves this kid. Very possibly becomes our 3rd RB, maybe even replaces Brown as #2. Excellent value in the 6th.

Second 6th was Sebastian Joseph. Too early to tell. Might make the 53, might not. Meh...

Third 6th was Trevon Young. Some camp reporters have been quite impressed. Could be a gem, but best we wait and see.

7th was Justin Lawler. Some good reports from camp and he had a decent Ravens game, so we’ll see. But looks like good value for a 7th, to be sure.

Gotta mention Okoronkwo and Scales additions here. Off the charts potential value here as UDFA’s. C’mon...

When one looks at the Big Picture for S&M, one can’t help but admire the bang for the buck via draft and trades, huh?

Edit: Okoronkwo was drafted in the 5th round. Stupid SI. Lol.

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2018/4/29/17298284/2018-nfl-draft-grades-los-angeles-rams-class

 

[pmil66]

Looked over the Rams starters, and found that each starter on the offense was drafted in one of the first 3 rounds, with the exception of Sullivan, he was a 6th round pick. Higbee, drafted in round 4 will be another if he starts over Everett.
On the D side, the starting DL and 2 of the starting corners were 1st rounders, Joyner and Johnson a 2nd and 3rd rounder. The LB core is interesting. Barron was a 1st rounder, 2 projected starters are UDFA, the other a 4th rounder.
Of course, not all the starters were draft picks of the Rams.

 

[Akrasian]

2nd was traded away for the failed Watkins experiment. Oops! Not a resume enhancer, to be kind. Big mistake there. Sigh...

Sorry, I don't buy that it was a big mistake.

The Rams needed a WR that would attract coverage, to help Goff develop. They got a guy who ended up with 8 TD receptions. They paid him $690k. If they had drafted him in his spot, his cap hit in 2017 would have been close to $5 million. So they got over $4 million in cap savings, AND a receiver that helped Goff develop, AND 8 tds. They also will get a third round pick in 2019.

It can be argued about whether the Rams got full value for their pick - but in no way, shape, or form was it a "big mistake". It was a gamble, with some pay off, and with part of the pay off still to come.

 

[1maGoh]

Yeah, best wait for 3 years, I know. But what if one wants to get a “head start”, so to speak? I’m not waiting, dammit!

How about a team simply getting good value at each pick? Rather than comparing one team’s 1st to another team’s 2nd, for example? Some evaluators actually sometimes do that.

And what if a shrewd GM could make trade downs to gain extra picks and STILL get contributors and promising players for the future? Wouldn’t that be great, too?

So, how have Snead and McVay done so far?

Let’s see...

2017. [www.si.com]

1st was part of Goff trade. Good value, wouldn’t you say? Technically, McVay had no part of that. Gotta give Snead the glory there. Then again, wasn’t it McVay that turned Goff around from a “bust” into a Pro Bowler?

2nd was Everett. Kinda iffy so far. Might go either way, but hardly impressive.

3rd was Kupp. A steal for sure.

Next 3rd was Johnson. Another steal that Wade’s still smiling about.

4th was Reynolds. Another iffy pick that I loved at the time but now might go either way.

Next 4th was Ebukam. Gonna be a starter this year so he was clearly excellent value there.

Rest of ‘17 draft looks like JAGS at this point. But part of Goff trade, Kupp, JJ, and Ebu makes this a value laden draft by anyone’s estimation.

2018. [www.si.com]

Hoo boy!

1st was traded for Cooks. A HR in my book. A for sure top WR that’s a perfect fit for McVay’s O while still young and a locker room plus for a pick that would be statistically a 50% starter? Dang!

A ‘19 2nd was traded away for Marcus Peters. Here again, a young and proven All Pro caliber player for a future pick that was statistically 35% likely to be a mere starter. And fears about him being disruptive have been laid to rest, as well. Hot Damn!

2nd was traded away for the failed Watkins experiment. Oops! Not a resume enhancer, to be kind. Big mistake there. Sigh...

3rd was Noteboom. So far, looks like excellent value. A probable future starter. As in next year, possibly even a quality (and very inexpensive) LOT. Wouldn’t THAT be something?

First 4th was Brian Allen. I dunno. Could be a future C, but not a sure thing just yet. Still, for a 4th? Pretty good value, I think. Stay tuned.

Second 4th was Franklin-Myers. Lotta good buzz from camp. It appears that he will be a heavy contributor in the rotation. Outstanding value, no doubt.

5th was Micah Kiser. Are you kidding me? Sure showed up in that Ravens game and possibly a future starter in this league. Love the value in a 5th rounder.

First 6th was John Kelly. Everybody loves this kid. Very possibly becomes our 3rd RB, maybe even replaces Brown as #2. Excellent value in the 6th.

Second 6th was Sebastian Joseph. Too early to tell. Might make the 53, might not. Meh...

Third 6th was Trevon Young. Some camp reporters have been quite impressed. Could be a gem, but best we wait and see.

7th was Justin Lawler. Some good reports from camp and he had a decent Ravens game, so we’ll see. But looks like good value for a 7th, to be sure.

Gotta mention Okoronkwo and Scales additions here. Off the charts potential value here as UDFA’s. C’mon...

When one looks at the Big Picture for S&M, one can’t help but admire the bang for the buck via draft and trades, huh?

Didn't we draft Okoronkwo?

 

[tomas]

Didn't we draft Okoronkwo?

You don't practice with the guys. You don't play in games. You're no longer part of the team.Out of sight, out of mind.

 

[Rams43]

Sorry, I don't buy that it was a big mistake.

The Rams needed a WR that would attract coverage, to help Goff develop. They got a guy who ended up with 8 TD receptions. They paid him $690k. If they had drafted him in his spot, his cap hit in 2017 would have been close to $5 million. So they got over $4 million in cap savings, AND a receiver that helped Goff develop, AND 8 tds. They also will get a third round pick in 2019.

It can be argued about whether the Rams got full value for their pick - but in no way, shape, or form was it a "big mistake". It was a gamble, with some pay off, and with part of the pay off still to come.

Can it be a mistake in hindsight, Akrasian?

Here’s my test. Knowing what we know now about Watkins with the Rams, even before knowing that they would be able to get Cooks, would they make that trade for Watkins again?

I say hell no.

 

[Merlin]

The answer to your question 43: NOT right after the first camp.

 

[1maGoh]

You don't practice with the guys. You don't play in games. You're no longer part of the team.Out of sight, out of mind.

I was responding to 43 calling him a UDFA. He wasn't a UDFA. He was drafted in the 5th round

 

[RamInferno]

Can it be a mistake in hindsight, Akrasian?

Here’s my test. Knowing what we know now about Watkins with the Rams, even before knowing that they would be able to get Cooks, would they make that trade for Watkins again?

I say hell no.

If the Rams didn't trade for Watkins, would they have had the #1 scoring offense last year? If not, would they have made the playoffs? Would they have been able to attract a player like Suh to the team this year?

I think they would still do the trade knowing they would give up a 2nd rounder to help propell the team from 4-12 and 32nd scoring offense to 11-5 and 1st scoring offense, and in addition get a 3rd round comp pick back for Watkins. So all they really gave up was the difference between the 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

[Rams43]

If the Rams didn't trade for Watkins, would they have had the #1 scoring offense last year? If not, would they have made the playoffs? Would they have been able to attract a player like Suh to the team this year?

I think they would still do the trade knowing they would give up a 2nd rounder to help propell the team from 4-12 and 32nd scoring offense to 11-5 and 1st scoring offense, and in addition get a 3rd round comp pick back for Watkins. So all they really gave up was the difference between the 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Don’t know about you, Inferno, but I wouldn’t do that Watkins trade again, given the 20-20 hindsight. Oh, HELL no.

http://www.nfl.com/player/sammywatkins/2543457/careerstats

A 2nd for a one year rental for a WR that had 39 catches for 593 yards? Nope.

His 8 TD’s? Some of those surely could have gone to others in this McVay spread-it-around O.

The Watkins trade falls into the “seemed like a good idea at the time” category. I liked it myself at the time, but it just didn’t work out. It happens.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Start with 1 pint
Then go from there

 

[Barrison]

Don’t know about you, Inferno, but I wouldn’t do that Watkins trade again, given the 20-20 hindsight. Oh, HELL no.

http://www.nfl.com/player/sammywatkins/2543457/careerstats

A 2nd for a one year rental for a WR that had 39 catches for 593 yards? Nope.

His 8 TD’s? Some of those surely could have gone to others in this McVay spread-it-around O.

The Watkins trade falls into the “seemed like a good idea at the time” category. I liked it myself at the time, but it just didn’t work out. It happens.

Don't forget we get a 3rd round comp though so that makes up for not keeping Watkins imo.

 

[Ramsey]

So, how does one best evaluate a draft, anyway?

Rams43 said, " How about a team simply getting good value at each pick?"

I say, " How about evaluating the overall Personnel plan? Including draft picks, trades and Free Agent signings...

As I evaluate the moves Snead and McVay made, I would give Snead-McVay an A+. My god, look at the Rams defense. The strategic addition of 3 all pros on the defensive side blows my mind. I'm awe struck. Receiving corps and Left Tackle. Jeez!

Bottom Line
The object is to win the Superbowl. Once you get to the playoffs, defense wins Superbowls. Can you think of another way besides Free Agency, which would have improved the Rams defense in such a dramatic fashion as what Snead and McVay did?

Could anyone add 3 automatic all pros with the 2018 draft? No Way!!!

2018 Draft, Linebackers, and IQ's... Rams manipulated the 2018 draft to initiate, shape and create competition in order to energize the Linebacker corp. Like a chess master McVay, added free agent pieces fashioning an incredible defensive line and a top 4 secondary. By doing so McVay put the youthful linebackers in a position to SUCEED. Add IQ's. That's right. No more dumb athletes with massive potential! Color me impressed. Snead-McVay draft highly intelligent FOOTBALL PLAYERS.

Original 2018 first round pick,
Would it be possible for Snead-McVay to add a speedy, seasoned future all-pro receiver like Brandin Cooks? Maybe...but the odds and the smart money are on Brandin Cooks.

Tight Ends- All the Rams Tight Ends are entering "that special year" that NFL TE's make their biggest quality leap. Since Goff, Gurley, and the receiving corp are primo, the Rams won't live or die by Tight End. However, if one or two of Ram's tight ends make a move toward their prime in 2018 then that's GRAVY! Playing the cards dealt McVay, considering the salary cap, you can't blame McVay-Snead for playing the odds...Betting on "maturity history" to provide improved TE play. Given salary caps, I can't comprehend a better plan. I'll be flummoxed if anyone can top Snead-McVay's 2018 personnel plan.

Big Pictures and 4-d Chess- When it comes to NFL drafts, I believe its wise to take a step back. Don't separate the draft from free agency and trades. Sign a FA so you can trade a draft pick for a starter, while dumping extra salary cap weight.
Gentlemen, McVay has entered the building. Finally, Belichick finally has found a worthy opponent to play 4 dimensional chess. Let the games begin.

The Old Me? I constantly criticized Fisher's plans because I honestly thought I along with a dozen other ROD posters could do better. But the McVay- Snead combo shut my pie hole. What a pleasure- to watch football genius at work.

Final Prediction- Ram's 2018 Off Seanson will go down in history as a TOP 5 All Time Offseason! Enjoy and savor the 2018 Season my ROD Brothers!

 

[tomas]

The Old Me? I constantly criticized Fisher's plans because I honestly thought I along with a dozen other ROD posters could do better. But the McVay- Snead combo shut my pie hole. What a pleasure- to watch football genius at work.

Jeff Fisher draft philosophy = A player that has great athletic talent, but generally sucks at football-low football IQ.
The "Forest Gump - Box ‘O Chocolates" of draft picks. The guy might be great, or he may suck, and not much in between.

 

[Ram65]

The key to all the draft pick trades is that the Rams DID NOT mortgage their future. From the Goff trade to the Cooks trade the Rams got good to great players in return for draft picks. The Watkins trade has been debated over and over as good or bad. In the end it helped the Rams for one year, they get a comp pic. It appears that they didn't miss a beat losing the Watkins pick with this years draft class as far as numbers and potential.

Last years group had good results with Kupp and Johnson becoming starters early. Ebukam looking good as a starter this year with Reynolds fighting for playing time. Too early to tell about this years rookie class. Early reports are that the Rams have players that can contribute right away. Noteboom could start and JFM will see a lot of playing time. It's an organizational turnaround from scouting to coaches lead by Snead.

 

[Rams43]

Don't forget we get a 3rd round comp though so that makes up for not keeping Watkins imo.

A late, late 3rd in ‘19 doesn’t make up for a latter third part of the 2nd rounder in ‘18, Barrison.

Not unless Watkins really blows the doors off in his one year with the Rams. And he certainly didn’t.

Look, S&M took a chance. I not only get that but I supported the decision at the time. I’m just not gonna try to pretend that it wasn’t a mistake. In a hypothetical do-over, I go in a different direction.

 

[Ants]

4th was Reynolds. Another iffy pick that I loved at the time but now might go either way.

I don't see Reynolds that way.
First of all, he was injured a bit which put him behind. Secondly, should he have started over Watkins...or over Woods or Cooks?
I think he was/is a good pick. He plays with an edge. It's just a matter of waiting for the right time for him. IMO

 

[Akrasian]

Can it be a mistake in hindsight, Akrasian?

Here’s my test. Knowing what we know now about Watkins with the Rams, even before knowing that they would be able to get Cooks, would they make that trade for Watkins again?

I say hell no.

Keep in mind, the trade was done August 11, fairly late in camp. Why would they make such a trade? Obviously, McVay realized there was a big hole on the team, that was going to hamper the development of the offense and the Rams developing into a winning team.

There was nobody to sign to help the team very much, and not much cap room anyway - not enough to trade for a vet on his second contract. But the Rams needed somebody who would draw a lot of attention, and make everybody more open for Goff to throw to. So they got an erratic but very talented receiver on the last year of his rookie contract.

What would have been their goals? Speculation, but something along these lines.

1) Help develop Goff into an elite passer. Give him time to throw, and open receivers to throw to. This seems to have been a huge success, as Goff developed, and Woods, Kupp, and Gurley became much more effective than expected as receivers. Without Watkins, I don't think that happens, at least to that extent.

2) Improve the Rams overall, from 4-12 the season before. Since they went 11-5 and made the playoffs, obviously this part worked out. Without Watkins, they likely would have improved some, but realistically probably not to a playoff team. So success.

3) Get good production from Watkins. Eh, somewhat, more than you acknowledge, but less than they likely hoped. With Watkins opening things up, Goff did tend to target the guys he'd been working with through OTAs and early camp - at least when things were open. 8 touchdowns is good, and while not targeted all that much, on tight windows Watkins actually was 7th in the league on passer rating at 93.1. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...rvin-jones-among-top-10-tightwindow-receivers This made a difference on the goal line, especially since the 2nd round draft pick TE had not yet become productive. Almost like 2nd rounders are not sure things. Overall, Watkins' production did help them significantly towards being the #1 scoring offense.

4) Either resign him at a price that made sense for the Rams, or get a good comp pick at least. Well, the market exploded, and the Rams had time to find another receiver that fit the team for less. They had gotten much of what they wanted, so they did not try to get into an insane bidding war. Thanks to the explosion in WR prices, they likely will get the 2nd comp pick for him. i.e. the pick after the one for Cousins.

Given all this, do I think the Rams make that trade for him again? Yes, I do. NFL teams would gladly trade a 2nd to make the playoffs. Given that he did produce somewhat - and for only $690k - while also helping other players get situated and productive in the NFL, it is a no brainer for them, in fact. I think this management team has made it clear that picks are a means to an end. They value them, but don't fantasize that every pick will work out, and have both short and long term goals for the team.

 

[RamInferno]

Don’t know about you, Inferno, but I wouldn’t do that Watkins trade again, given the 20-20 hindsight. Oh, HELL no.

http://www.nfl.com/player/sammywatkins/2543457/careerstats

A 2nd for a one year rental for a WR that had 39 catches for 593 yards? Nope.

His 8 TD’s? Some of those surely could have gone to others in this McVay spread-it-around O.

The Watkins trade falls into the “seemed like a good idea at the time” category. I liked it myself at the time, but it just didn’t work out. It happens.

It goes beyond Watkins' stats to me. I don't think that the only thing to consider. In my opinion, we wouldn't be in as good of a spot as a team today if that trade wasn't made. Tavon would have been the "#1" receiver, the offense struggles, we go 8-8, nobody sees us a destination team, Suh chooses New Orleans over the Rams, etc.

 

[PressureD41]

So, how does one best evaluate a draft, anyway?

Rams43 said, " How about a team simply getting good value at each pick?"

I say, " How about evaluating the overall Personnel plan? Including draft picks, trades and Free Agent signings...

As I evaluate the moves Snead and McVay made, I would give Snead-McVay an A+. My god, look at the Rams defense. The strategic addition of 3 all pros on the defensive side blows my mind. I'm awe struck. Receiving corps and Left Tackle. Jeez!

Bottom Line
The object is to win the Superbowl. Once you get to the playoffs, defense wins Superbowls. Can you think of another way besides Free Agency, which would have improved the Rams defense in such a dramatic fashion as what Snead and McVay did?

Could anyone add 3 automatic all pros with the 2018 draft? No Way!!!

2018 Draft, Linebackers, and IQ's... Rams manipulated the 2018 draft to initiate, shape and create competition in order to energize the Linebacker corp. Like a chess master McVay, added free agent pieces fashioning an incredible defensive line and a top 4 secondary. By doing so McVay put the youthful linebackers in a position to SUCEED. Add IQ's. That's right. No more dumb athletes with massive potential! Color me impressed. Snead-McVay draft highly intelligent FOOTBALL PLAYERS.

Original 2018 first round pick,
Would it be possible for Snead-McVay to add a speedy, seasoned future all-pro receiver like Brandin Cooks? Maybe...but the odds and the smart money are on Brandin Cooks.

Tight Ends- All the Rams Tight Ends are entering "that special year" that NFL TE's make their biggest quality leap. Since Goff, Gurley, and the receiving corp are primo, the Rams won't live or die by Tight End. However, if one or two of Ram's tight ends make a move toward their prime in 2018 then that's GRAVY! Playing the cards dealt McVay, considering the salary cap, you can't blame McVay-Snead for playing the odds...Betting on "maturity history" to provide improved TE play. Given salary caps, I can't comprehend a better plan. I'll be flummoxed if anyone can top Snead-McVay's 2018 personnel plan.

Big Pictures and 4-d Chess- When it comes to NFL drafts, I believe its wise to take a step back. Don't separate the draft from free agency and trades. Sign a FA so you can trade a draft pick for a starter, while dumping extra salary cap weight.
Gentlemen, McVay has entered the building. Finally, Belichick finally has found a worthy opponent to play 4 dimensional chess. Let the games begin.

The Old Me? I constantly criticized Fisher's plans because I honestly thought I along with a dozen other ROD posters could do better. But the McVay- Snead combo shut my pie hole. What a pleasure- to watch football genius at work.

Final Prediction- Ram's 2018 Off Seanson will go down in history as a TOP 5 All Time Offseason! Enjoy and savor the 2018 Season my ROD Brothers!

Dam thats a good read, and I concur fully!! Thx for sharing!!
I would add those OLmen draft picks look the part to date and we can finally say its safe to say we can "draft" OL!!!