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Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction: AFC Division Leaders Meet on SNF
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs "Sunday Night Football" game with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs: AFC Division Leaders Meet on SNF
Two of the AFC's marquee teams will duke it on "Sunday Night Football" when the Tennessee Titans travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs.Both the Titans and Chiefs are atop their respective divisions with 5-2 records, but they're getting the job done in different ways. The Titans have won five straight games by leaning heavily on Derrick Henry and taking advantage of their rather undaunting schedule. All five of Tennessee's wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 10-18-2 and almost zero offensive firepower. With their quarterback situation still murky, a win on the road against Kansas City would be a huge boon for a Titans team flying under the radar yet again.
The Chiefs are doing what they've always done in the Patrick Mahomes era — score points — and scoring points as efficiently as any other team in the NFL. Despite new faces in the receivers' room, Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid haven't missed a beat. In fact, this year's Chiefs' offense is as dangerous as any in the last few years, leading the league in a bevy of offensive categories. Kansas City is coming off a bye week and a 21-point road win against the 49ers prior to that, so this offense should be well-prepared for whatever the Titans may throw at them.
Sunday Night Football: Tennessee (5-2) at Kansas City (5-2)
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Chiefs -12.5
Tickets: As low as $165 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. The Return of the King
The NFL's two-time rushing champion, Derrick Henry, is coming for his throne. After an injury-derailed 2021 and a slow start to this season, Henry has thrust himself near the top of the league's rushing leaderboard.
In the first two games of the season, both losses, Henry was averaging just 53.5 total yards and 3.1 yards per carry. Since then, he has exploded during the Titans' five-game win-streak, averaging 129.6 yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry and totaling six touchdowns. After last week's 219-yard and two-score explosion against the Texans, Henry leads the league in rushing yards per game (107.9) and sits third overall with 755. The two names in front of Henry, Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley, have played eight games to Henry's seven.
It's no secret that the Titans' offense goes as Henry goes. For reference, in the second half last week against Houston, Tennessee called just one passing play while Henry had 18 carries. He's accounted for 51 percent of Tennessee's total yards (748 of 1,453) and six of their 10 offensive touchdowns. For a running back in today's pass-heavy NFL, that is absurd. But with the Titans' uncertain quarterback situation unresolved, it's necessary.
This week, Henry and the Titans' offense face arguably their toughest test yet against the Chiefs' vaunted run defense. Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (3), third-fewest rushing yards per game (92.0), and seventh-fewest yards per carry (4.1). However, over the last three games, the Chiefs have been a little more generous, surrendering 127 yards per game on the ground.
2. Can the Titans keep up?
Facing the Chiefs, after five weeks of lackluster offensive opponents, will have the Titans feeling like they've entered the Indianapolis 500 after a month of racing golf carts with Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Davis Mills. Kansas City owns the league's top-scoring offense, averaging nearly 32 points per game, and has scored more touchdowns than any other team despite only playing seven games.
During their win streak, Tennessee hasn't seen an opposing offense ranked higher than 20th in DVOA, including four wins against the three lowest-ranked squads in the category. Four of their five wins were against teams that rank no higher than 25th in yards per play, 26th in total points scored, and 27th in expected points from offense and points per game.
The Titans' offense isn't any better. They're actually one of the worst units in the league, having failed to score more than 24 points in a game this season. Tennessee ranks 24th in scoring (18.9 ppg) and expected offensive points, 26th in total touchdowns (15), 28th in yards per play (5.0), and 30th in Pro Football Focus' offensive power rankings.
Those dismal numbers are only exacerbated by the fact it doesn't really matter who plays quarterback, whether it's Ryan Tannehill or rookie Malik Willis. This Titans offense simply does not have the tools to be a high-scoring unit. But they are going to have to find a way to keep pace by keeping the Chiefs' offense off the field, or they might be getting lapped before the race even starts.
3. Third downs
The Titans' best chance at keeping this game close is to keep the Chiefs' offense off of the field as much as possible. Easier said than done. The Chiefs are the top-rated third-down offense in the NFL (51.9 percent) and Mahomes is lights out with 35 conversions, a 120 passer rating, and six touchdowns on 61 third-down passing attempts. But the Titans do have the top-ranked third-down defense in the league (25.8 percent), and a blueprint for stopping Kansas City has been provided by Tennessee's own division rival earlier this season.
When the Colts knocked off the Chiefs back in Week 3, they held Kansas City to just 3-for-10 on third down and had the edge in time of possession by more than seven minutes. Those third-down stops led to field goals instead of touchdowns and kept Indianapolis within striking distance the whole game. Again, easier said than done.
But both the Colts and Titans have similar defensive makeups. Like the Colts, The Titans' front line with Denico Autry (3.5 sacks) and Jeffery Simmons (5.5 sacks) is able to pressure quarterbacks without having to sell out on blitzes. This in turn could allow the linebackers to help in coverage and maybe take pressure off a secondary that's allowed a 67.5 percent completion rate and a combined passer rating of 96.6 against some less-than-stellar quarterbacks this season.
Tennessee's coverage will obviously have to account for tight end Travis Kelce. He's the centerpiece of this K.C. offense outside of Mahomes, especially on third downs. Kelce's 14 third-down catches are tied for third in the NFL this season. He is easily Mahomes' favorite target when the sticks need to be moved.
Final Analysis
No matter who is under center for the Titans, a lot of Lady Luck's good graces need to break their way for them to win this game. But Reid's teams are exceptional coming off the bye, like 20-3 good. I see no reason why this high-flying Chiefs team should be any less prepared against a limited, but tough Titans team.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Titans 20
