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https://www.pe.com/2019/04/13/kartje-should-the-rams-trade-out-of-the-first-round-of-the-nfl-draft/
Should the Rams trade out of the first round of the NFL draft?
By Ryan Kartje
Trading down in the draft has proved valuable, and the depth at a certain position could suit the Rams well
Fourteen years ago, in a paper first published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, two economists posited that NFL teams had failed to understand the value of their top draft picks. Thousands of hours of work spent by scouting departments had made them overconfident in their own judgment.
As such, these teams routinely overvalued their highest selections – and even made irrational deals to accumulate even higher picks, when it made far more sense to do the opposite. The NFL draft’s best value, the economists found, always came from trading down.
Several NFL analytics departments took notice at the time. The Patriots, as one might expect, became masters of such draft manipulation. But most teams continued to ignore this logic entirely. In an interview, one of the paper’s authors, Richard Thaler, spoke of his experience working with Washington owner Dan Snyder, who heard Thaler out, before promptly ignoring all of his advice during the draft. Years later, in a fitting twist, Thaler would go on to win the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in predicting irrational behavior.
“Market forces have not been strong enough to overcome these human failings,” the authors concluded.
Even smart franchises have fallen victim to these failings during draft season. Last year, the Saints traded away a future first-round pick, along with their No. 27 overall pick and fifth-rounder, to move up 13 spots to 14th overall. That pick became pass rusher Marcus Davenport, who finished with five sacks and showed some promise as a rookie. But was it enough promise to match the value of two first-round picks? Unless
Davenport becomes a perennial Pro Bowler, how could it be?
Take the Colts, for example. Last season, they moved down three spots, from third overall to sixth, netting two second-round picks in 2018 and a future second-rounder in 2019 from the Jets, who coveted USC quarterback Sam Darnold.
The jury is still out on Darnold, but there’s no denying the historic haul the Colts received in return for his draft rights. The Colts used the sixth overall pick to draft All-Pro rookie guard Quenton Nelson. Then, with back-to-back picks early in the second round, one from the Jets and the other their own, the Colts took another All-Pro – and defensive rookie of the year – linebacker Darius Leonard, followed by their starting right tackle, Braden Smith.
It almost never is. The smartest NFL teams, instead, take advantage of their overconfident peers’ worst instincts and use them to exploit inefficiencies in the market. They trick other teams into trading up, pile up future picks, and then choose a player with an almost identical chance of success as the one they would’ve drafted.
Had they stayed put, the Colts could’ve added a Pro Bowl corner in Denzel Ward or a talented pass rusher like Bradley Chubb. But by trading down just three spots, the Colts added two additional high-level starters, and in less than two weeks, they’ll add yet another. Thanks to the Jets, they also own the 34th overall pick in the upcoming draft.
The Rams are slated to pick just three slots before that. But unless one of the top prospects on their board tumbles to the end of the first, they should explore every possible option to trade down, out of the round. The Rams haven’t picked in the first round since trading up to take Jared Goff with the top overall pick in 2016. They could definitely use another first-round talent on either the defensive or offensive lines.
But by trading down a few picks, the Rams could potentially address both lines. When the Eagles traded the 32nd overall pick last season to the Ravens, they selected tight end Dallas Goedert 17 picks later, moved up seven spots in the fourth to choose a starting corner and, for good measure, added a second-round pick (53rd overall) in the 2019 draft.
The Rams don’t even have to trade down that far to add serious value. In 2017, the Seahawks moved down just four spots from No. 31 and got a fourth-round pick out of the deal.There’s no reason to think the Rams couldn’t see at least that value – and perhaps even more. Considering the team’s recent success rate with third- and fourth-round picks – receiver Cooper Kupp, safety John Johnson, linebacker Samson Ebukam, etc. – that additional selection could make a significant difference.
The difference between the 31st and 35th pick in this draft, meanwhile, could prove negligible. The draft is deep with defensive talent into the second round, and the Rams’ needs happen to correspond to where the draft is deepest – most notably, on the defensive line. It’s not unreasonable to think Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence could be available with the 34th overall pick with the 34th overall pick or that DeAndre Baker, the Georgia cornerback, could keep sliding all the way to 37.
It’s impossible to predict just how the draft will unfold, but the only true formula for drafting better players is to have more draft picks. Unless there are compensatory selections Les Snead has somehow failed to already unearth, trading down from the first round is the Rams’ most economical path to piling up those picks.
Should the Rams trade out of the first round of the NFL draft?
By Ryan Kartje
Trading down in the draft has proved valuable, and the depth at a certain position could suit the Rams well
Fourteen years ago, in a paper first published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, two economists posited that NFL teams had failed to understand the value of their top draft picks. Thousands of hours of work spent by scouting departments had made them overconfident in their own judgment.
As such, these teams routinely overvalued their highest selections – and even made irrational deals to accumulate even higher picks, when it made far more sense to do the opposite. The NFL draft’s best value, the economists found, always came from trading down.
Several NFL analytics departments took notice at the time. The Patriots, as one might expect, became masters of such draft manipulation. But most teams continued to ignore this logic entirely. In an interview, one of the paper’s authors, Richard Thaler, spoke of his experience working with Washington owner Dan Snyder, who heard Thaler out, before promptly ignoring all of his advice during the draft. Years later, in a fitting twist, Thaler would go on to win the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in predicting irrational behavior.
“Market forces have not been strong enough to overcome these human failings,” the authors concluded.
Even smart franchises have fallen victim to these failings during draft season. Last year, the Saints traded away a future first-round pick, along with their No. 27 overall pick and fifth-rounder, to move up 13 spots to 14th overall. That pick became pass rusher Marcus Davenport, who finished with five sacks and showed some promise as a rookie. But was it enough promise to match the value of two first-round picks? Unless
Davenport becomes a perennial Pro Bowler, how could it be?
Take the Colts, for example. Last season, they moved down three spots, from third overall to sixth, netting two second-round picks in 2018 and a future second-rounder in 2019 from the Jets, who coveted USC quarterback Sam Darnold.
The jury is still out on Darnold, but there’s no denying the historic haul the Colts received in return for his draft rights. The Colts used the sixth overall pick to draft All-Pro rookie guard Quenton Nelson. Then, with back-to-back picks early in the second round, one from the Jets and the other their own, the Colts took another All-Pro – and defensive rookie of the year – linebacker Darius Leonard, followed by their starting right tackle, Braden Smith.
It almost never is. The smartest NFL teams, instead, take advantage of their overconfident peers’ worst instincts and use them to exploit inefficiencies in the market. They trick other teams into trading up, pile up future picks, and then choose a player with an almost identical chance of success as the one they would’ve drafted.
Had they stayed put, the Colts could’ve added a Pro Bowl corner in Denzel Ward or a talented pass rusher like Bradley Chubb. But by trading down just three spots, the Colts added two additional high-level starters, and in less than two weeks, they’ll add yet another. Thanks to the Jets, they also own the 34th overall pick in the upcoming draft.
The Rams are slated to pick just three slots before that. But unless one of the top prospects on their board tumbles to the end of the first, they should explore every possible option to trade down, out of the round. The Rams haven’t picked in the first round since trading up to take Jared Goff with the top overall pick in 2016. They could definitely use another first-round talent on either the defensive or offensive lines.
But by trading down a few picks, the Rams could potentially address both lines. When the Eagles traded the 32nd overall pick last season to the Ravens, they selected tight end Dallas Goedert 17 picks later, moved up seven spots in the fourth to choose a starting corner and, for good measure, added a second-round pick (53rd overall) in the 2019 draft.
The Rams don’t even have to trade down that far to add serious value. In 2017, the Seahawks moved down just four spots from No. 31 and got a fourth-round pick out of the deal.There’s no reason to think the Rams couldn’t see at least that value – and perhaps even more. Considering the team’s recent success rate with third- and fourth-round picks – receiver Cooper Kupp, safety John Johnson, linebacker Samson Ebukam, etc. – that additional selection could make a significant difference.
The difference between the 31st and 35th pick in this draft, meanwhile, could prove negligible. The draft is deep with defensive talent into the second round, and the Rams’ needs happen to correspond to where the draft is deepest – most notably, on the defensive line. It’s not unreasonable to think Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence could be available with the 34th overall pick with the 34th overall pick or that DeAndre Baker, the Georgia cornerback, could keep sliding all the way to 37.
It’s impossible to predict just how the draft will unfold, but the only true formula for drafting better players is to have more draft picks. Unless there are compensatory selections Les Snead has somehow failed to already unearth, trading down from the first round is the Rams’ most economical path to piling up those picks.
