Rams 2019 free agency preview: Tag, re-sign or let Dante Fowler Jr. walk?

[LesBaker]

Hit was the lost of the main reserve to both ER posts OSLB'er Matt Longacre to back surgery & the long rehabbing event. Later on, Longacre suffered a serious elbow injury in TC.

Longacre had a rough year.

The previous year he played very well.

I expect to see him play well next year.

@BonifayRam that was a good post.

Listen, I like what Dante brought to the team, but the fact is that he's averaging 5 sacks per year in his NFL career. He didn't produce that much with us either. He came through with some big, clutch plays, but he's a guy who is better off as your #2 edge rusher. If he's willing to sign a "prove it" deal at around $7 million or $8 million, I'd bring him back. But I'm not giving him 3+ years at $8+ million per year with anything guaranteed past the first year. At that point, you're paying him like a guy who produces a lot more than he has.

He can apply pressure, though isn't big enough or strong enough to take on an OLman one on one lining up in front of him. But he's a LB.

He plays the run pretty well and as you mentioned can cover pretty well too.

So for an extra million a year, or maybe two, you'd create another hole on the roster? That' isn't a good plan.

 

[jrry32]

He can apply pressure, though isn't big enough or strong enough to take on an OLman one on one lining up in front of him. But he's a LB.

He plays the run pretty well and as you mentioned can cover pretty well too.

So for an extra million a year, or maybe two, you'd create another hole on the roster? That' isn't a good plan.

Yes. We're at the point where we have to make tough decisions. I'm not overpaying an average player. That is something that could cost us a good player down the line. We'll have plenty of options this off-season if we let Fowler Jr. walk. Overpaying players to avoid creating a hole is a bad plan.

 

[fearsomefour]

Would give a first this year for Miller, Denver has Chubb and could draft a replacement with the pick.

Obo broke his foot in training camp, bad break for him. Rams did trade 2 picks to move up to draft him in round 5, they like him.

One late first round pick for Miller? Yes.
But it would take more than that.

 

[LA_Rams_#29]

Saw an article bring up Anthony Barr as a potential ILB for us to replace Barron... I would love that... I think it's a better position for him..and an upgrade for us against the run....

maybe a hometown discount would be in play...I know his family would love to have him back in LA...

 

[dang]

One late first round pick for Miller? Yes.
But it would take more than that.

Going after Miller would essentially eliminate funding for any other impactful FAs. I would prefer the Rams take care of a several holes with their FA acquisitions (EDGE rusher, backup QB, run-stuffing ILB) vs filling one big hole. How much of Miller's 2019 $25m cap hit would the Rams be on the hook for if they traded for him?

 

[fearsomefour]

Going after Miller would essentially eliminate funding for any other impactful FAs. I would prefer the Rams take care of a several holes with their FA acquisitions (EDGE rusher, backup QB, run-stuffing ILB) vs filling one big hole. How much of Miller's 2019 $25m cap hit would the Rams be on the hook for if they traded for him?

This is my view as well.
Could fill several needs with that money.

 

[LesBaker]

Yes. We're at the point where we have to make tough decisions. I'm not overpaying an average player. That is something that could cost us a good player down the line. We'll have plenty of options this off-season if we let Fowler Jr. walk. Overpaying players to avoid creating a hole is a bad plan.

Plenty of options?

I dunno about that.

Fowler played well, he's worth keeping. And if it takes 9MIL rather than 8MIL I'm fine with that.

It's not my money, and I'd rather have something stay in place.

 

[jrry32]

Plenty of options?

I dunno about that.

Fowler played well, he's worth keeping. And if it takes 9MIL rather than 8MIL I'm fine with that.

It's not my money, and I'd rather have something stay in place.

I do know about that. Plenty of options. This draft's strengths are at DL and 3-4 OLB. This FA class is also deep and talented at 3-4 OLB. Overpaying for Fowler will be a mistake.

 

[jrry32]

Going after Miller would essentially eliminate funding for any other impactful FAs. I would prefer the Rams take care of a several holes with their FA acquisitions (EDGE rusher, backup QB, run-stuffing ILB) vs filling one big hole. How much of Miller's 2019 $25m cap hit would the Rams be on the hook for if they traded for him?

$17.5 million

And he would be worth every penny of it. Miller would fill the edge rusher hole, and the other two slots wouldn't cost much money to fill.

 

[fearsomefour]

$17.5 million

And he would be worth every penny of it. Miller would fill the edge rusher hole, and the other two slots wouldn't cost much money to fill.

Thanks Jrry.
So, $17.5M Miller costs the Rams. I'm still bringing in a rotational 3/4 DL and another FA LB.
changes the draft assuming the Rams don't have their first. Would love to pick up the best passs rushing DL with that first pick.
The biggest deterrent to do this deal is the Rams end of the round first rounder.
One would assume Denver would add picks to trade up for a long term answer at QB.
Don't know if there is a QB like that in this years draft.

 

[Akrasian]

$17.5 million

And he would be worth every penny of it. Miller would fill the edge rusher hole, and the other two slots wouldn't cost much money to fill.

Well, it'd be good that other spots wouldn't cost much to fill, since the Rams unless they cut players wouldn't have money to fill them.

After signing some players for the back end of the roster, Over the Cap now shows the Rams with 48 on the roster and $24.7 million available. Except that number doesn't include the practice squad and any money to sign injury replacements, so really closer to $20 million, before cutting expensive players to save money. So after getting Miller, the Rams would have about $3 million to fill in the rest of the roster. The first and likely another pick this year, plus a future pick at least, would have to be traded to the Broncos - they aren't giving him away - trading Miller gives them a bunch of dead money after all, and other teams would want to trade for him too. So the Rams would have no cap space left, and at best their first pick would be at #95 - so highly unlikely to get a lot of help in 2019 from the draft - a role player or two maybe.

They can cut Barron to pay for a more physical linebacker, with maybe a few million left over - but Littleton would still be an RFA, so really, he's going to take the savings and at least some of the remaining cap room. One of the remaining draft picks will need to be used to draft a running back - they won't have money for a free agent. Ditto for QB - a late pick will have to be used for Goff's backup. Oops, Saffold is gone, unless Brockers is cut and the money used on him - which opens another major hole. They need a safety - no free agent there. Etc etc.

I'd like the Rams to be able to afford Miller, but it's just not realistic, especially with the draft picks needed to go the other way.

 

[…..]

Yes. We're at the point where we have to make tough decisions. I'm not overpaying an average player..... We'll have plenty of options this off-season if we let Fowler Jr. walk. Overpaying players to avoid creating a hole is a bad plan.

Couldn’t agree more. My first reaction when reading thread title...”let him walk, he’s not that good.”

My next thought is that we can get a better player at that price point, or two equal players. Maybe an edge guy with a similar resume plus fill another team need.

 

[jrry32]

Well, it'd be good that other spots wouldn't cost much to fill, since the Rams unless they cut players wouldn't have money to fill them.

The Rams will almost certainly cut Mark Barron, but I don't agree with your analysis here.

After signing some players for the back end of the roster, Over the Cap now shows the Rams with 48 on the roster and $24.7 million available. Except that number doesn't include the practice squad and any money to sign injury replacements, so really closer to $20 million, before cutting expensive players to save money. So after getting Miller, the Rams would have about $3 million to fill in the rest of the roster. The first and likely another pick this year, plus a future pick at least, would have to be traded to the Broncos - they aren't giving him away - trading Miller gives them a bunch of dead money after all, and other teams would want to trade for him too. So the Rams would have no cap space left, and at best their first pick would be at #95 - so highly unlikely to get a lot of help in 2019 from the draft - a role player or two maybe.

First, that money does factor in the practice squad. We signed them to futures contracts, so they're part of the 48 on the roster. Second, there is the top 51 rule during the off-season, so only the top 51 contracts are counted. Third, I don't agree with your math. Fourth, we have the flexibility in the future to shift money around as needed this year.

They can cut Barron to pay for a more physical linebacker, with maybe a few million left over - but Littleton would still be an RFA, so really, he's going to take the savings and at least some of the remaining cap room. One of the remaining draft picks will need to be used to draft a running back - they won't have money for a free agent. Ditto for QB - a late pick will have to be used for Goff's backup. Oops, Saffold is gone, unless Brockers is cut and the money used on him - which opens another major hole. They need a safety - no free agent there. Etc etc.

I'd like the Rams to be able to afford Miller, but it's just not realistic, especially with the draft picks needed to go the other way.

It's plenty realistic for the Rams to afford Miller. There are some downsides to the deal, but Miller is worth it. The Rams could trade for Miller and still keep Saffold and Brockers. We'd be limited in our ability to fill the ILB spot next to Littleton and the NT spot, but both of those are spots that could be filled cheaply in FA or in the Draft if we needed to do that.

 

[Akrasian]

The Rams will almost certainly cut Mark Barron, but I don't agree with your analysis here.



First, that money does factor in the practice squad. We signed them to futures contracts, so they're part of the 48 on the roster. Second, there is the top 51 rule during the off-season, so only the top 51 contracts are counted. Third, I don't agree with your math. Fourth, we have the flexibility in the future to shift money around as needed this year.



It's plenty realistic for the Rams to afford Miller. There are some downsides to the deal, but Miller is worth it. The Rams could trade for Miller and still keep Saffold and Brockers. We'd be limited in our ability to fill the ILB spot next to Littleton and the NT spot, but both of those are spots that could be filled cheaply in FA or in the Draft if we needed to do that.

If the money includes the practice squad players, then in effect the Rams have 38 players signed for the roster next season, not 48 - since 10 of those signed are for the practice squad. Or if they make the team - well, then the practice squad salaries really are not accounted for.

I'm aware of the 51 rule during the offseason - but you know what? It's BS, if you are trying to actually figure out what 53+ man roster you can afford in reality next season. It's assuming that some expensive players will be cut before the season starts - well, the Rams need to have a good idea of who is expendable before they start making offseason moves.

You say the Rams could fill spots cheaply in FA (without money) or the draft (without any decent picks). You are ignoring among other things that getting Miller would take multiple picks - and not 6ths. If the Broncos were to trade Miller, other teams (with more cap room and more desirable draft slotting) would be interested too. It would take approximately the entire Rams draft to be equivalent on the draft pick value chart to a middle of the first pick - even pick 25 would be equal to the Rams' first and their own third. And I expect the Broncos to want more than that.

As you say, the Rams can move money around - part of their problem this year is the millions they moved around last year to afford Donald. And the situation is worse in the future. 2020 the Rams will need to pick up Goff's option, or extend him. The option for a QB drafted in the top ten the year before Goff is just shy of $21 million per - a raise of over $12 million from Goff's cap hit this year. It'll be more for Goff. With an extension they can reduce that a bit, but only so far realistically the way QB salaries have risen. Gurley's cap hit goes up over $8 million next year. Cook's cap hit goes up. Havenstein's hit goes down half a million, so that's something. They will need to either replace the cornerbacks (without high picks) or sign them to extensions. If they push money to future seasons, they will create whole other issues in those years - and even then, the amounts will likely be just enough to allow the Rams to fill out their roster very cheaply.

I would like the Rams to be deep enough so that an inevitable injury doesn't cripple the team. Maybe that's just me. But Miller makes that for practical purposes impossible. I'd rather they use pick #31 to draft one of the strong areas in this draft. I would like the linebacker group overall to be strong, not just one excellent aging player. I want the Rams to keep the OL pipeline going, not have almost no depth there outside of Noteboom. I want the Rams to have a dynasty, which means you can't trade a bunch of draft picks at every opportunity for expensive aging vets. You say you don't agree with my math, but you're kind of sparse in justifying your position beyond a hand wave "the Rams can do it". How do they do it? At what costs? If the Rams can get him without significant draft pick compensation, how? He is a top player - others will be interested too, after all. How can the Rams afford Miller, Saffold, AND Brockers, and what moves would have to be made to do so, without a bunch of players amazingly take a lot less than they could get elsewhere?

 

[FrantikRam]

I think that last season, Snead and McVay overhauled the roster because of why we lost games: run defense and disappointing weapons on offense (in the Falcons playoff game). Those two factors, along with Goff growing, is why we lost all 6 games last year.

This year we lost 4 games:

45-35 Saints
15-6 Bears
30-23 Eagles
13-3 Patriots

The Saints game the defense played terribly in the first half - and then elite in the second half. On top of that, with another crack at the same team in the same stadium, the defense held them under 300 yards.

The reason we lost the last three games that we did? 10000000% offense.

I get that we have mostly returning starters on offense and three defensive starters slated to become free agents, but I think we're missing something here. Spending way too much time talking about upgrading a unit that only lost us one game.

Goff is Goff and we have to hope he continues to improve - but the Bears/Eagles/Patriots all followed the same blue print: pressure Goff. All three happened to be played without Kupp in the lineup.

On defense, we drafted several guys last year that stuck on the team - I think that was done anticipating this upcoming year in which we will be losing several veterans. This starting defense:

Talib/Peters/JJ/Countess or Christian
Obo/Littleton/Kiser or Christian on passing downs/Ebukam
Brockers/Joseph-Day/Donald

Might not strike fear into anyone right now - but it's still a unit with Talib, Peters, JJ, Donald, Brockers and Littleton - expecting Cory to grow and the rest are all All Star caliber players. And while I realize we will spend some money on some defensive players in free agency, I would like to see the above lineup. Having 5 unknown players is scary, but it will also eliminate a lot of the freelancing. I expect us to pick up a safety, ILB and NT - but not necessarily any superstars - while looking to make a bigger splash at OLB.

But having said all that, Barron and Joyner were not great. Suh didn't play well at times either - so would replacing them with these young guys actually have an adverse affect? In the Super Bowl, yes, definitely - but during the season? I don't think so.

On the flip side, we resembled a Jeff Fisher coached offense against the Bears/Eagles/Patriots.

I believe our biggest needs lie on offense - Center (and guard if Saffold leaves), and WR.

WR? Am I crazy? How could WR be a big need? We have the best trio of WRs in the NFL right?

But when losing one of those three WRs sends you back to a Jeff Fisher esque offense, you need to have a fourth capable of starting. Reynolds is solid, but we need an upgrade - unless McVay changes the offense.

I would cut Barron, re-sign Saffold - then take our $33 million plus our first round pick and figure out how to upgrade Sullivan and Reynolds first - then figure out the defense later. A defense with Donald/Talib/Peters/JJ/Littleton is going to be a good one.

 

[BonifayRam]

I think that last season, Snead and McVay overhauled the roster because of why we lost games: run defense and disappointing weapons on offense (in the Falcons playoff game). Those two factors, along with Goff growing, is why we lost all 6 games last year.

This year we lost 4 games:

45-35 Saints
15-6 Bears
30-23 Eagles
13-3 Patriots

The Saints game the defense played terribly in the first half - and then elite in the second half. On top of that, with another crack at the same team in the same stadium, the defense held them under 300 yards.

The reason we lost the last three games that we did? 10000000% offense.

I get that we have mostly returning starters on offense and three defensive starters slated to become free agents, but I think we're missing something here. Spending way too much time talking about upgrading a unit that only lost us one game.

Goff is Goff and we have to hope he continues to improve - but the Bears/Eagles/Patriots all followed the same blue print: pressure Goff. All three happened to be played without Kupp in the lineup.

On defense, we drafted several guys last year that stuck on the team - I think that was done anticipating this upcoming year in which we will be losing several veterans. This starting defense:

Talib/Peters/JJ/Countess or Christian
Obo/Littleton/Kiser or Christian on passing downs/Ebukam
Brockers/Joseph-Day/Donald

Might not strike fear into anyone right now - but it's still a unit with Talib, Peters, JJ, Donald, Brockers and Littleton - expecting Cory to grow and the rest are all All Star caliber players. And while I realize we will spend some money on some defensive players in free agency, I would like to see the above lineup. Having 5 unknown players is scary, but it will also eliminate a lot of the freelancing. I expect us to pick up a safety, ILB and NT - but not necessarily any superstars - while looking to make a bigger splash at OLB.

But having said all that, Barron and Joyner were not great. Suh didn't play well at times either - so would replacing them with these young guys actually have an adverse affect? In the Super Bowl, yes, definitely - but during the season? I don't think so.

On the flip side, we resembled a Jeff Fisher coached offense against the Bears/Eagles/Patriots.

I believe our biggest needs lie on offense - Center (and guard if Saffold leaves), and WR.

WR? Am I crazy? How could WR be a big need? We have the best trio of WRs in the NFL right?

But when losing one of those three WRs sends you back to a Jeff Fisher esque offense, you need to have a fourth capable of starting. Reynolds is solid, but we need an upgrade - unless McVay changes the offense.

I would cut Barron, re-sign Saffold - then take our $33 million plus our first round pick and figure out how to upgrade Sullivan and Reynolds first - then figure out the defense later. A defense with Donald/Talib/Peters/JJ/Littleton is going to be a good one.

I would agree with much of what you have commented on but I could not come close to agree with you on your opinion on our WR's. I have posted before that IMO the Rams have one of the top youngest wr units in the NFL with the main four. These 4 average out to 25 yrs old & 4 yrs of NFL experience. The rest of the unit has young wideouts too. 2nd yr WR Natson is a game day 5th WR & doubles as KR/PR. Hodge is another 2nd yr WR who has excellent hands. Thomas has great deep speed if he can get past injuries & is only 24 yr old too. Then there's Ricky Proehl's kid rookie Austin Proehl.

It would be wrong for me to not to include the pass receiving abilities of (24 yrs old entering his 3rd season) TE/HB Gerald Everett who has yet to figure out just how good he is. I believe he could have over 50 receptions in this upcoming season & a budding offensive star if utilized. TE Tyler Higbee is over 6-6 260 pound TE who has improved each season now in his 4th yr. 24 yr old entering his 2nd season TE Johnny Mundt may have the best hands of the TE unit.

Both of these receiver units (TE/WR) are very young with none of these players being close to peaking in the NFL. Snead & McVay have a well blended overall receiving unit. Do I need to bring up the pass-catching abilities of our RB unit of Gurley, Brown & Kelly?

This offense needs a new back up QB either by a veteran cap casualty WWC or coming in by the draft. The OL currently is unknown depending on UFA LG Saffold. pending retirement of LT Whitworth & the pending cap casualty of OC John Sullivan. Bottom line is ...Whitworth retires Rams will be forced to draft an LT with one of the Rams first four selections. {1st/ 3rd/ 3rd comp/ 4th).The rest of the needed OL depth will need to come by way of veteran free agency (hopefully from cap casualties WWC OL'ers ).

.

 

[jrry32]

If the money includes the practice squad players, then in effect the Rams have 38 players signed for the roster next season, not 48 - since 10 of those signed are for the practice squad. Or if they make the team - well, then the practice squad salaries really are not accounted for.

That's not a problem. They're being over-accounted for as it stands now. Once we hit the top 51, they'll be under-accounted for, but that's not an issue. We've already budgeted for that amount.

I'm aware of the 51 rule during the offseason - but you know what? It's BS, if you are trying to actually figure out what 53+ man roster you can afford in reality next season. It's assuming that some expensive players will be cut before the season starts - well, the Rams need to have a good idea of who is expendable before they start making offseason moves.

Again, we'll have it all budgeted out. I've run the numbers. We'll be fine.

You say the Rams could fill spots cheaply in FA (without money) or the draft (without any decent picks). You are ignoring among other things that getting Miller would take multiple picks - and not 6ths. If the Broncos were to trade Miller, other teams (with more cap room and more desirable draft slotting) would be interested too. It would take approximately the entire Rams draft to be equivalent on the draft pick value chart to a middle of the first pick - even pick 25 would be equal to the Rams' first and their own third. And I expect the Broncos to want more than that.

That's not what I'm offering. I'm offering a first. If they don't like that, they can walk away.

As you say, the Rams can move money around - part of their problem this year is the millions they moved around last year to afford Donald. And the situation is worse in the future. 2020 the Rams will need to pick up Goff's option, or extend him. The option for a QB drafted in the top ten the year before Goff is just shy of $21 million per - a raise of over $12 million from Goff's cap hit this year. It'll be more for Goff. With an extension they can reduce that a bit, but only so far realistically the way QB salaries have risen. Gurley's cap hit goes up over $8 million next year. Cook's cap hit goes up. Havenstein's hit goes down half a million, so that's something. They will need to either replace the cornerbacks (without high picks) or sign them to extensions. If they push money to future seasons, they will create whole other issues in those years - and even then, the amounts will likely be just enough to allow the Rams to fill out their roster very cheaply.

Again, I've run the numbers. Moving money around won't be an issue if need be.

I would like the Rams to be deep enough so that an inevitable injury doesn't cripple the team. Maybe that's just me. But Miller makes that for practical purposes impossible. I'd rather they use pick #31 to draft one of the strong areas in this draft. I would like the linebacker group overall to be strong, not just one excellent aging player. I want the Rams to keep the OL pipeline going, not have almost no depth there outside of Noteboom. I want the Rams to have a dynasty, which means you can't trade a bunch of draft picks at every opportunity for expensive aging vets. You say you don't agree with my math, but you're kind of sparse in justifying your position beyond a hand wave "the Rams can do it". How do they do it? At what costs? If the Rams can get him without significant draft pick compensation, how? He is a top player - others will be interested too, after all. How can the Rams afford Miller, Saffold, AND Brockers, and what moves would have to be made to do so, without a bunch of players amazingly take a lot less than they could get elsewhere?

We can have our cake and eat it too. I'm sparse on justifying my position because I've run the numbers for my mock off-seasons. I don't have time right now to go into detail about how we make it work.

 

[Akrasian]

That's not a problem. They're being over-accounted for as it stands now. Once we hit the top 51, they'll be under-accounted for, but that's not an issue. We've already budgeted for that amount.



Again, we'll have it all budgeted out. I've run the numbers. We'll be fine.



That's not what I'm offering. I'm offering a first. If they don't like that, they can walk away.



Again, I've run the numbers. Moving money around won't be an issue if need be.



We can have our cake and eat it too. I'm sparse on justifying my position because I've run the numbers for my mock off-seasons. I don't have time right now to go into detail about how we make it work.

So you've been arguing for trading for Miller, on the idea that one of the best edge rushers in the league, who would have a $19 million dead money hit for the Broncos, and who is the best player on the team, would be traded by Elway for an unrealistically low offer? Even limiting it to teams that run a 3-4, it's still the case that virtually every team in that group has more cap space and a better selection of picks to offer - and they would probably all want him if he were available that cheap.

I hope your numbers, once you show them, are more realistic than that, and don't involve a large number of players signing for millions less than they could get on the market.

Yes, money can be moved around - but that would just push the problem forward, especially with Goff due a huge raise next year on his option.

Look forward to seeing your numbers though.

 

[yrba1]

The reason we lost the last three games that we did? 10000000% offense.

I think we can remedy our issues on offense by running a more dynamic offense in terms of personnel changes. I'd like to see more wrinkles with the 12 or even 13-personnel packages

As for our defense and Fowler, I wouldn't overpay him just to fill a need, especially with Wade's ability to mask our deficiencies on defense.

 

[jrry32]

So you've been arguing for trading for Miller, on the idea that one of the best edge rushers in the league, who would have a $19 million dead money hit for the Broncos, and who is the best player on the team, would be traded by Elway for an unrealistically low offer? Even limiting it to teams that run a 3-4, it's still the case that virtually every team in that group has more cap space and a better selection of picks to offer - and they would probably all want him if he were available that cheap.

I hope your numbers, once you show them, are more realistic than that, and don't involve a large number of players signing for millions less than they could get on the market.

Yes, money can be moved around - but that would just push the problem forward, especially with Goff due a huge raise next year on his option.

Look forward to seeing your numbers though.

Miller turns 30 years old in a month. Getting a first for him isn't an unrealistically low offer, especially if Miller only wants to play for a contender.