Rams: (#13) 1st Round QB Ty Simpson SIGNED

[PARAM]

That is what I actually said about Ty Simpson when we first talked about the issues with his pocket movement. I feel like people are putting words in my mouth.

Just because a QB can get better at something doesn't mean that he's "bad" at it.

Okay so instead of looking at all the negatives and positives. Or how, despite having deficiencies in some areas, it doesn't mean he's "bad" at it. Or how, with proper coaching, leadership and practice, he can eliminate all of them. Let's look at what actually happened.

The kid played 1 year at Alabama. He showed some promise and showed some areas he needed work. If amateur football gurus like Twopointtry and others can see it, isn't it a fact, professionals can see it too? Guys like Dan Orlovsky. Or JT Sullivan. Or Sean McVay?

And they still took him at #13. Why? Was it a huge mistake? Was a shrewd move?

 

[WestCoastRam]

Okay so instead of looking at all the negatives and positives. Or how, despite having deficiencies in some areas, it doesn't mean he's "bad" at it. Or how, with proper coaching, leadership and practice, he can eliminate all of them. Let's look at what actually happened.

The kid played 1 year at Alabama. He showed some promise and showed some areas he needed work. If amateur football gurus like Twopointtry and others can see it, isn't it a fact, professionals can see it too? Guys like Dan Orlovsky. Or JT Sullivan. Or Sean McVay?

And they still took him at #13. Why? Was it a huge mistake? Was a shrewd move?

Given the statistical likelyhood of any QB taken in the 1st round becoming a successful starting NFL QB... it's less than a coin flip.

Only 45% of 1st round QBs start more than 4 seasons and if you look at Bill Barnwell's work, he had an ESPN study of 45 first-round QBs from quarterback-rich classes (so maybe not every class which would produce worse results) since 1983 sorted them into five tiers: 17.8% Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame, 20% franchise quarterback, 4.4% low-end starter, and 44.4% disappointments, with the remainder solid starters.

Since we can't measure what Barnwell didn't (classes that were not QB rich) I'll concede that we can't lower the threshold here even though it would make sense that the statistical success numbers would be less than what this comes out to be but just by looking at at these numbers the chance of him being a longtime (I'm guessing longer than 4 years) starter it's just 42.2%, 37.8% chance of him being good.

So basically he's got a 2 in 5 shot at being a franchise QB or more.

Given the ecosystem he's in, let's be generous and give him a 3 in 5 shot at being a good QB. Why not 4 in 5 shot given the coaching, offensive ecosystem and most likely offensive talent surrounding him...

Well, I think McVay and Snead will have no concern cutting their losses on the kid if he's not developing the way they want. Something that really isn't discussed here is that I think the Rams won't have an issue moving on from the kid instead of forcing things.

 

[Coliseum Ram]

Given the statistical likelyhood of any QB taken in the 1st round becoming a successful starting NFL QB... it's less than a coin flip.

Only 45% of 1st round QBs start more than 4 seasons and if you look at Bill Barnwell's work, he had an ESPN study of 45 first-round QBs from quarterback-rich classes (so maybe not every class which would produce worse results) since 1983 sorted them into five tiers: 17.8% Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame, 20% franchise quarterback, 4.4% low-end starter, and 44.4% disappointments, with the remainder solid starters.

Since we can't measure what Barnwell didn't (classes that were not QB rich) I'll concede that we can't lower the threshold here even though it would make sense that the statistical success numbers would be less than what this comes out to be but just by looking at at these numbers the chance of him being a longtime (I'm guessing longer than 4 years) starter it's just 42.2%, 37.8% chance of him being good.

So basically he's got a 2 in 5 shot at being a franchise QB or more.

Given the ecosystem he's in, let's be generous and give him a 3 in 5 shot at being a good QB. Why not 4 in 5 shot given the coaching, offensive ecosystem and most likely offensive talent surrounding him...

Well, I think McVay and Snead will have no concern cutting their losses on the kid if he's not developing the way they want. Something that really isn't discussed here is that I think the Rams won't have an issue moving on from the kid instead of forcing things.

Oh they would definitely move on at any point they saw fit. This is not a front office that acts and plays scared. The Goff trade is proof of that. Merit-based system here at the Rams, if Simpson can't cut it someone else will be brought in that can.

 

[OldSchool]

LOL

Hasn't even played a meaningful game and we're already talking about not having problem cutting him I just don't get the desire to even think about that or thinking it's even a possibility but hey if you want to be negative about the kid instead of positive about his and the Rams future you do you.

 

[PARAM]

Given the statistical likelyhood of any QB taken in the 1st round becoming a successful starting NFL QB... it's less than a coin flip.

Only 45% of 1st round QBs start more than 4 seasons and if you look at Bill Barnwell's work, he had an ESPN study of 45 first-round QBs from quarterback-rich classes (so maybe not every class which would produce worse results) since 1983 sorted them into five tiers: 17.8% Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame, 20% franchise quarterback, 4.4% low-end starter, and 44.4% disappointments, with the remainder solid starters.

Since we can't measure what Barnwell didn't (classes that were not QB rich) I'll concede that we can't lower the threshold here even though it would make sense that the statistical success numbers would be less than what this comes out to be but just by looking at at these numbers the chance of him being a longtime (I'm guessing longer than 4 years) starter it's just 42.2%, 37.8% chance of him being good.

So basically he's got a 2 in 5 shot at being a franchise QB or more.

Given the ecosystem he's in, let's be generous and give him a 3 in 5 shot at being a good QB. Why not 4 in 5 shot given the coaching, offensive ecosystem and most likely offensive talent surrounding him...

Well, I think McVay and Snead will have no concern cutting their losses on the kid if he's not developing the way they want. Something that really isn't discussed here is that I think the Rams won't have an issue moving on from the kid instead of forcing things.

As with any analysis.....in this case, drafting a QB, there are a lot of variables that come into play. I would say it starts with one thing......is the kid talented? Because if he's not talented, he's got no shot wherever he goes. Next would be where he goes.....what franchise and what head coach. IMO, the overwhelming reason first round QBs fail has more to do with where they go, than how talented they happen to be. And lets face it.......most first round QBs are drafted by lousy teams with either desperate head coaches or head coaches with one foot out the door. And when that coach does exit, the new guy is not married to the QB like the former head coach. The next thing IMHO is surrounding talent. How many of these lousy teams with desperate head coaches have a talented squad? My guess would be, not many. So as a result, there are going to be a lot of "failures" with first round QBs.....more than are successful. And then there are those who get lucky, get away from the shitty team and luck out by getting another chance somewhere else. Darnold. Mayfield. Jones. Etc. So, do we revise our success/failure ratio with guys like that? Or are they considered both? I think it's safe to say MOST franchise QBs are found in the first round. Of course, there are exceptions but not that many. So, yeah, it's hard to find a franchise QB.

What do we have in Ty Simpson?
Is he talented?
He's certainly in a good situation.
He has a great offensive head coach and a squad that is extremely talented. As long as he actually has talent, he will be successful IMHO.

 

[DzRams]

Why are we looking at college games when he has game tape from the NFL exhibition season? I don't care what happened in college... he looked excellent in his pro "debut" and he will only get better under Stafford and McVay. Keep the faith my brother.

College tape is still relevant because he hasn't played one actual NFL snap when the games count and against starters.

But one can find things to nitpick for any players tape. The general consensus from the experts is that he's very good at pocket movements. If he had perfect tape with no bad habits from inexperience, he would've been a top 3 pick, and no shot for us to draft him. So, room for improvement exists, but that's good because there's a lot of potential too.

 

[Fire Ants]

LOL

Hasn't even played a meaningful game and we're already talking about not having problem cutting him I just don't get the desire to even think about that or thinking it's even a possibility but hey if you want to be negative about the kid instead of positive about his and the Rams future you do you.

Indeed.
Bennett was, what, a 4th round pick? And he's still hanging around.
Maybe this is just a dumb discussion?

 

[RamsTheirWife]

Happy WE have two suitable options as back up QBs. Remember the past, my goodness. #9 will be just fine this season too. Nothing wrong having 2 in the stable. Look around the league. Some are carrying 4. (Insert the Dean- Horse part from Animal House).

 

[Twopointtry]

So, yeah, it's hard to find a franchise QB.

Know who had 5 times worse pocket presence and pocket movement in college vs Ty Simpson? Drake Maye. If it weren't for Stafford, Maye would have been MVP last season. Is he a franchise QB? Didn't look like one last night. Just saying. If Maye and Simpson had been in the same draft class, which one would I have taken? It is close, but I'd say Simpson. Maye was the 3rd overall pick in his draft.

 

[PARAM]

Know who had 5 times worse pocket presence and pocket movement in college vs Ty Simpson? Drake Maye.

Is that a PFF stat?

 

[So Ram]

Given the statistical likelyhood of any QB taken in the 1st round becoming a successful starting NFL QB... it's less than a coin flip.

Only 45% of 1st round QBs start more than 4 seasons and if you look at Bill Barnwell's work, he had an ESPN study of 45 first-round QBs from quarterback-rich classes (so maybe not every class which would produce worse results) since 1983 sorted them into five tiers: 17.8% Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame, 20% franchise quarterback, 4.4% low-end starter, and 44.4% disappointments, with the remainder solid starters.

Since we can't measure what Barnwell didn't (classes that were not QB rich) I'll concede that we can't lower the threshold here even though it would make sense that the statistical success numbers would be less than what this comes out to be but just by looking at at these numbers the chance of him being a longtime (I'm guessing longer than 4 years) starter it's just 42.2%, 37.8% chance of him being good.

So basically he's got a 2 in 5 shot at being a franchise QB or more.

Given the ecosystem he's in, let's be generous and give him a 3 in 5 shot at being a good QB. Why not 4 in 5 shot given the coaching, offensive ecosystem and most likely offensive talent surrounding him...

Well, I think McVay and Snead will have no concern cutting their losses on the kid if he's not developing the way they want. Something that really isn't discussed here is that I think the Rams won't have an issue moving on from the kid instead of forcing things.

DON’T SEE THIS AS AN ISSUE!!!

Either way,things WILL play out.
From what I”VE SEEN is Ty Simpsonnis in a EXCELLENT SPOT
& going what is needed of him.I’m actually PROUD of his development this offseason.

2026 ? There’s a lot of games to be played,but the less WE see him the better. 2027 - it could be his SHOW?

 

[Fire Ants]

DON’T SEE THIS AS AN ISSUE!!!

Either way,things WILL play out.
From what I”VE SEEN is Ty Simpsonnis in a EXCELLENT SPOT
& going what is needed of him.I’m actually PROUD of his development this offseason.

Perhaps we should discuss Stafford's development this year instead?

 

[So Ram]

Perhaps we should discuss Stafford's development this year instead?

Well imo this is Mattew Stafford’s last season.I still believe The Rams have a good chance to WIN The Superbowl.
On the Defense I have BIG TIME concerns I haven’t heard anyone post about. I guess I need to look at more post instead of cherry picking The Cremator of The Doom & Gloom Club !

 

[So Ram]

LOL

Hasn't even played a meaningful game and we're already talking about not having problem cutting him I just don't get the desire to even think about that or thinking it's even a possibility but hey if you want to be negative about the kid instead of positive about his and the Rams future you do you.

Yeah - sort of how you do me.Just have to ignore with Big Boy Pants.

 

[Fire Ants]

 

[Merlin]

Yeah, I was really disappointed in the 13th pick. Then I got over it.

This is the way.

I had him as a backup talent for round 3+. But the kid looked great in our offense in preseason, he fits McVay's scheme well, so who knows where it goes.

 

[PhillyRam]

So far a number of these top college QBs have not exactly stood out. Mateer & Dante Moore struggling today.

 

[PhillyRam]

Boy does Alabama miss Simpson. Their QB looks brutal

 

[Ram65]

I'm not remotely advocating that Simpson replace Stafford.

Luke Kuechly said that in today's NFL you need a quarterback that can take advantage of open lanes to run and extend plays. He made reference of needing mobility as opposed to being a pocket passer (Stafford is an exception). Simpson has demonstrated that ability. Stafford looked and is too slow to take advantage of the openings.

You can discuss if he was taken too early, limited upside and happy feet etc...... He has shown the ability to move around, create space and take advantage of open lanes.


View: https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2022779468402593864

 

[Faceplant]

I'm just hear to say.... If you're team is tanking for Arch Manning, you deserve what you get. I'm high for Ty. That's my guy.