Our 2021 UFA Class: Who stays and who goes?

[LARAMSinFeb.]

I'm not a capologist but it looks like we are negative 18 million next year if the cap stays at the 182 mark which I believe is the updated projected number after our 7, 674, 768 rollover cap. Though I don't know if that is even up to date due to signing kickers and such. If these numbers are correct we start the offseason asking how we can cut 18 million rather than asking who we want to re-sign.

Trust me, you're a capologist.

 

[AvengerRam]

I'm not a capologist but it looks like we are negative 18 million next year if the cap stays at the 182 mark which I believe is the updated projected number after our 7, 674, 768 rollover cap. Though I don't know if that is even up to date due to signing kickers and such. If these numbers are correct we start the offseason asking how we can cut 18 million rather than asking who we want to re-sign.

There are more ways to move cap dollars around, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

 

[BonifayRam]

I think we can let JJ go. Don't think we have the money to keep him. I'd like to see Floyd stay, but he's another we may not be able to afford.

JJ III is a very talented safety who can play any of the usual or unusual safety posts for most NFL teams. Here are two safeties that JJ III will be in competition with this March. I am tainted & believe that JJ III is better than either of these two UFA safeties who are shown to have a sizeable $$$$ market value.

Anthony Harris Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac
Justin Simmons Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

It would appear to me that once JJ III signs his new contract with his new team the Rams Org. should be looking to land another 3rd or 4th rd CDPA in 2022 NFL draft. No way the Rams have the ability or the maneuvering space to keep JJ III ....just wishful thinking IMO.

 

[BonifayRam]

....... And I don't trust Lewis yet to stay healthy.

I fully agree with your comments on Floyd & I also weary of Lewis's health. That's why I say draft another edge rusher/OLB'er on the Second Day of the NFL draft just like we did with Terrell lewis. Along with a OLT (if there is a pure LT worthy) & an outside corner. You should get quick dividends in return on the field in an OLB & CB on day two.

The loss of both starting OLB'ers is not what you would want to do but there are no options there. Staley & Shula will have some decent talent ready like Hollins, Okoronkwo, Lewis as starters with still Lawler, Patrick & Polite in reserve. But you need an upgrade in talent level in this position so you got to go out there & find the next Floyd for Staley.

 

[Merlin]

Yea good point. Dak Prescott, Godwin and several others gonna be SOL.

No doubt. Seems like Dak is gonna serve as a cautionary tale for young QBs. I am sure there was a pretty fuckin nice contract on that table knowing Jerry Jones. Dak fucked it up IMO.

 

[Ram_Rally]

Blythe, floyd, Johnson in that order for me. I never want to see high turnover on our line again. I think Floyd is better for us then Fowler in terms of football iq so I'd like to keep him but I think we can be okay replacing him. Our secondary is deep. Honestly I don't see how we can justify paying Johnson. We even have Burgess and Rapp behind him and Fuller.

 

[…..]

Right now, we have 12 players scheduled to be UFAs in 2021.

Two of them are newcomers who fall into the buh-bye (Kai Forbath) and the who knows (Derek Rivers) categories.

Here is how I view the rest:

THE “KEEPER” GROUP

John Johnson
Johnson is my number 1 priority, and its not close. He is a leader, and provide a great deal of versatility. While the Rams may have hoped that Taylor Rapp and Terrell Burgess would make JJ expendable, injuries have scuttled that plan. Find a way to keep this guy!

Leonard Floyd
There are two sides to this one. On the positive side, Floyd has demonstrated that he is an every down player, and he’s having a career year in sacks. On the negative side, he’s not going to go cheap, and you have to wonder how much he is benefitting from the same Aaron Donald boost that elevated the play of Dante Fowler last year. I want him back, but I’m not willing to get into a bidding war.

Austin Blythe
Blythe is not a great player, and certainly not irreplaceable, but he is a solid performer and should be an affordable piece to help keep continuity on the OL.

Jake McQuaide
Does his job and won’t be expensive.

Morgan Fox
I like Fox as a rotational guy, and would probably keep him if he seeks comparable dollars to what he currently earns ($825,000). He’s entirely replaceable, though.

THE “CAN’T KEEP EVERYONE” GROUP

Josh Reynolds
Reynolds is a very good #3 WR, but I think Van Jefferson can become as good if not better. If the Rams agree, keeping the guy who is on a rookie deal is a no brainer. Reynolds won’t have trouble finding work.

Gerald Everett
The flashes are there, but the consistency is not. Tyler Higbee is the clear #1 TE, Johnny Mundt is a capable backup, and we have a prospect in Brysen Hopkins.

Samson Ebukam
He’s had his chances, but has not been able to distinguish himself. Terrell Lewis and others can fill his role and likely produce more.

Malcolm Brown
I’m presuming that some team will offer him a nice deal. I’d like to have him back, but we just can’t afford to invest significant dollars in a guy who is, at best, part of a 3 man platoon.

Troy Hill
Darious Williams has passed him as Jalen Ramsey’s running mate. This is a spot (#3 CB) that (assuming David Long isn’t that guy) we can fill in the draft.

I was not a huge Blythe fan previously, but in this case this year, I agree with you.

In fact, your entire list, on both sides is pretty much aligned with my thinking.

Two maybe’s for me....Fox and Johnson. I maybe keep Johnson and I maybe not keep Fox. Im sure money is going to be at issue with Johnson.

 

[oldnotdead]

Williams will get tendered but that will be a one year expedience to get them into 2022 where there is likely to be a better cap situation. He will get his extension starting in 2022.

Floyd will get extended, make no mistake about that. He's proved he's an upgrade to Fowler as Staley uses him in ways they couldn't with Dante.

Brown has earned an extension and this season has shown the wisdom of remaining deep at RB.

Ebukam is a SAM LB and isn't a scheme fit for how Staley uses him. He's a perfect fit for the Ravens scheme.

Everett will have to give the Rams a hometown discount to stay. He's good enough to play a starting role on any team. I simply don't see them being able to outbid anyone for him and IMO it's why they drafted Hopkins. They will take their 3rd round comp pick.

Both Hill and Johnson will be offered contracts that the Rams simply won't be able to meet. Both will likely bring the Ram's comp picks. That said they already have their replacements on the roster in Williams and Burgess. At safety, they will be 3 deep with Fuller, Burgess and Rapp. The way Staley plays his safeties Rapp and Fuller will be fine until Burgess gets up to speed.

Shelton will get tendered and will compete with Allen for the OC start. Blythe is a serviceable backup but in reality, he's too limited to be the starter on this scheme.

Rivers probably gets a two year prove it deal. IMO Rivers is a potential big sleeper. He came in raw and was slowed by injuries. With good coaching, this guy has a high ceiling. He's got the speed (4.6), and physical metrics (6'4" 248 lbs) to play JACK or DE in Staley's scheme. He could end up taking Ebukam's spot in the rotation simply because he's like Hollins and can play inside, outside, and has the speed and length to match up with TEs if need be.

Reynolds will draw too much interest as a Y/Z receiver that I doubt the Rams can afford to keep him. He's probably looked at as a comp pick. The Rams with Jefferson and Webster are 4 deep at WR without Reynolds.

This has been Fox's breakout year, but he's still a backup. He might draw interest from other teams as a 4-3 DT which IMO is his best fit. That said the Rams have two guys on the PS that would fill his role.

There are multiple ways for the Rams to clear the cap they need to sign their priority FAs. They also have multiple options on the PS right now. I can see them having the cap to get it done. This roster is going to change but not decline. Some of the newbies look like potential upgrades to the guys they will be replacing. Guys like Hoecht has upsides Fox doesn't. Jonah Williams has upsides that Okoronkwo doesn't as he is faster than both Brockers and Ogbo and plays with strength and aggression. At 6'5" 275 lbs running a 4.65, he's built like a classic 3-4 DE. The versatility that players like these two make them good fits for Staley's scheme.

The bottom line is I'm not overly concerned about the FA situation and feel overall the team will actually improve, particularly in the front 7.

 

[Memento]

Williams should (and hopefully will) be tendered at a first round pick. We absolutely cannot afford to lose him because with Long being unproven and Hill likely leaving for a better starting opportunity and money, losing him would mean we've lost two starting corners.

I like JJ3, but he'll get his money elsewhere and net a solid compensatory pick. Fuller, Rapp, and Burgess are a solid safety trio.

Floyd will get a huge payday from someone who isn't us, unfortunately. It'll net us a third round compensatory pick.

Ebukam, Reynolds, and Everett are as good as gone. They'll go for starting jobs elsewhere, and hopefully get nice contracts for both their benefit and ours.

Malcolm Brown has been solid, but I could see him going for a bigger payday, which, in my opinion, is what I would do; there's only a limited chance for running backs to make their money.

Blythe has played well, but I'd still draft a center high just in case we can't retain him (and no, old, I do not want to pick between Shelton and Allen; it's like picking between licking hot asphalt in the summer or licking a frozen pole in the winter.)

If Gay continues to be solid, I'd gladly re-sign him. McQuaide is good, but I get the feeling that we won't overpay for a long snapper. I could see us going younger in that case. Forbath is gone.

Fox and Rivers are interesting. I could see us re-signing them, but at the same time, we've got a surprising amount of young depth ready to play.

I see no reason not to re-sign Travin Howard and let him compete for a job next year, as he's an ERFA. Same with Mundt, who is a RFA.

Calais, Shelton, and Hughes are all ERFAs. I don't see any reason not to re-sign them for competition.

 

[Neil039]

Great reads and perspective from all. Nothing against any ones take.

If there is a single Fan on this board that called Akers and Jefferson as the first two picks in this past years draft I’ll listen.

It’s all speculative, McVay and Sneed tend to due things at the beat of their own drum IMHO.

 

[Reddog99]

I think majority will be gone except for Williams and Blythe but I could see them try to keep Floyd. Anyone thats going to demand a lot a money is gone im pretty sure tho they might spend big money on 1 guy. Anyone who takes a reasonable offer and contributes well i can see us keep.

 

[TexasRam]

Bly

Williams will get tendered but that will be a one year expedience to get them into 2022 where there is likely to be a better cap situation. He will get his extension starting in 2022.

Floyd will get extended, make no mistake about that. He's proved he's an upgrade to Fowler as Staley uses him in ways they couldn't with Dante.

Brown has earned an extension and this season has shown the wisdom of remaining deep at RB.

Ebukam is a SAM LB and isn't a scheme fit for how Staley uses him. He's a perfect fit for the Ravens scheme.

Everett will have to give the Rams a hometown discount to stay. He's good enough to play a starting role on any team. I simply don't see them being able to outbid anyone for him and IMO it's why they drafted Hopkins. They will take their 3rd round comp pick.

Both Hill and Johnson will be offered contracts that the Rams simply won't be able to meet. Both will likely bring the Ram's comp picks. That said they already have their replacements on the roster in Williams and Burgess. At safety, they will be 3 deep with Fuller, Burgess and Rapp. The way Staley plays his safeties Rapp and Fuller will be fine until Burgess gets up to speed.

Shelton will get tendered and will compete with Allen for the OC start. Blythe is a serviceable backup but in reality, he's too limited to be the starter on this scheme.

Rivers probably gets a two year prove it deal. IMO Rivers is a potential big sleeper. He came in raw and was slowed by injuries. With good coaching, this guy has a high ceiling. He's got the speed (4.6), and physical metrics (6'4" 248 lbs) to play JACK or DE in Staley's scheme. He could end up taking Ebukam's spot in the rotation simply because he's like Hollins and can play inside, outside, and has the speed and length to match up with TEs if need be.

Reynolds will draw too much interest as a Y/Z receiver that I doubt the Rams can afford to keep him. He's probably looked at as a comp pick. The Rams with Jefferson and Webster are 4 deep at WR without Reynolds.

This has been Fox's breakout year, but he's still a backup. He might draw interest from other teams as a 4-3 DT which IMO is his best fit. That said the Rams have two guys on the PS that would fill his role.

There are multiple ways for the Rams to clear the cap they need to sign their priority FAs. They also have multiple options on the PS right now. I can see them having the cap to get it done. This roster is going to change but not decline. Some of the newbies look like potential upgrades to the guys they will be replacing. Guys like Hoecht has upsides Fox doesn't. Jonah Williams has upsides that Okoronkwo doesn't as he is faster than both Brockers and Ogbo and plays with strength and aggression. At 6'5" 275 lbs running a 4.65, he's built like a classic 3-4 DE. The versatility that players like these two make them good fits for Staley's scheme.

The bottom line is I'm not overly concerned about the FA situation and feel overall the team will actually improve, particularly in the front 7.

im a little murky on how the RFA tender works. My understanding if we could Tender Williams at around 4 million which is a first round pick. If a team offers him a bigger contract then we can either match or refuse and receive a first rounder correct?

If this is the case then we are probably drafting his replacement as we don’t have the cap space to match a big contract.
I’m bumping Corbett to center and playing Evans at RG.

 

[PARAM]

Great reads and perspective from all. Nothing against any ones take.

If there is a single Fan on this board that called Akers and Jefferson as the first two picks in this past years draft I’ll listen.

It’s all speculative, McVay and Sneed tend to due things at the beat of their own drum IMHO.

And they've done a stellar job so far. I'd bet they've looked at this long before now and have a plan. JMHO.

At WR we've gone from Watkins, to Cooks, to Jefferson (who should stay awhile)
At OLB we've gone from Quinn & Barwin, to Ebukam & Fowler, to Fowler & Matthews, to Floyd & Ebukam/Lewis
At CB we've gone from TruJo, Webster and Robey-Coleman to Talib, Peters & Robey-Coleman to Ramsey, Williams and Robey-Coleman, to Ramsey, Williams and Hill.
At S we've gone from Joyner & Johnson, to Weddle & Johnson/Rapp, to Johnson & Fuller/Rapp
They know how to work this shit.

 

[Mackeyser]

JJ III is a very talented safety who can play any of the usual or unusual safety posts for most NFL teams. Here are two safeties that JJ III will be in competition with this March. I am tainted & believe that JJ III is better than either of these two UFA safeties who are shown to have a sizeable $$$$ market value.

Anthony Harris Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac
Justin Simmons Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

It would appear to me that once JJ III signs his new contract with his new team the Rams Org. should be looking to land another 3rd or 4th rd CDPA in 2022 NFL draft. No way the Rams have the ability or the maneuvering space to keep JJ III ....just wishful thinking IMO.

I dunno how the NFL is going to adjust, but it's clear that they're going to have to do something because it surely doesn't help the NFL to have multiple very popular teams have to strip to the bare bones to field a team.

So, while I don't think any amount of configurating is gonna help the Saints out of their dilemma, I don't think the NFL is gonna let as many vets sit out for the year while the overall quality of the product goes down. We see the difference ONE really good player makes... (Colts D when Bob Sanders was healthy at Safety or the Cowboys D when Sean Lee is healthy) and the idea that years of team building is supposed to be reset by COVID, nullifying with some teams many years of team building... I just don't see it.

I think the NFLPA and the NFL will come to some arrangement regarding COVID offsets for the cap allowing teams to sign players this coming off-season to multiyear contracts.

Maybe they give a discount per the cap for new multiyear deals. Maybe they allow for structures that normally they wouldn't allow and they'd have a COVID designation. Could be something like "Floyd was able to resign with the Rams for a great deal on a COVID designated contract, but while that gives the Rams the cap relief they needed to sign him, the designation has some restrictions when it comes to cap hit on trades or non-injury related releases, so the Rams are betting big he continues to produce."

Something like that.

All that's a long-winded way of saying that I don't think the NFL will allow for a cadre of vets to have to be COVID vets signing for vet minimums just to stay employed or vets deciding to sit out the year b/c it's not worth risking injury for a 1 year prove it deal. They'll figure something out.

And presuming they do, I think we'll be able to keep the guys we really need to keep.

Top 3 imho are Darious Williams, Floyd and JJ3.

If Corey Dillon got no love a few years back, I surely don't think Malcolm Brown is gonna be a hot commodity. He'll be a nice get on a decent vet RB contract, but I think that RB is the most stratified position in the entire NFL... where best RBs get paid and anyone else is a rookie or JAG making JAG money. Not a lot of middle ground.

I agree that Ebu, Reynolds and Everett are likely gone. Everett, especially is gonna make a team happy... please let it not be the Saints, 9ers or Seahawks. We won't enjoy playing against him.

I think everyone wants stability, ESPECIALLY after this last year and the best way to put it behind us is to reduce the impact on the cap going forward using offsets or other tools.

 

[PressureD41]

Under Snead's watch, we are great at drafting DBs, use this to our cap advantage and keep drafting and signing UDFA DBs. Only player I ready want back is Floyd but agree money is a problem. Reason for Floyd is we still don't know what we have at our OLBs. Each OLB/Edge guy shows some flash but not enough to earn the full time gig. T. Lewis is a hurt bag sadly. Knee getting drained is code for short NFL career, again this sucks but mostly true in most cases. Best bet is on Obo#45

I think Snead will want to let both Floyd & Johnson go and hope we can net 2-3rd rd comp picks this off season as we don't have many draft picks currently.

D. Will#31 is a must keep and is a lock for a 1st rd tender, and we will attempt to get him signed in short order IMHO. The rest of our UFA's will be all business decisions. Willing to take our offer, or we let them walk.

In a perfect world I would like to resign Blythe but somehow make him our back up OC and somehow need to see Shelton in game action to further see what we have in him.

 

[BonifayRam]

im a little murky on how the RFA tender works. My understanding if we could Tender Williams at around 4 million which is a first round pick. If a team offers him a bigger contract then we can either match or refuse and receive a first rounder correct?

If this is the case then we are probably drafting his replacement as we don’t have the cap space to match a big contract.
I’m bumping Corbett to center and playing Evans at RG.

Your understanding is good on how that NFL RFA functions.

You may be off on that $$$ figure on that 2021 RFA First-round tender offer it will likely be up closer to a near $5 million. Not bad for a newly groomed corner who is outperforming almost all other UFA or RFA 2021 corners. IMO that $5 million is well spent if he will sign it! You can not lose both your starting corners (Hill/ Williams) & your team captain starting Safety to FA'cy from your 2020 starting secondary going into 2021 season & expect to win many games.

Rams do not have currently have enough corners being groomed to replace both Hill & Williams. The only other corner is David Long & he has been very slow to get up to speed. Long sure does not look ready to start IMO.

 

[BonifayRam]

You know how I feel about Center. I'd hope they could draft a good one that could take Shelton's place, then sign Blythe for another year to give his replacement time to learn. Blythe is a reliable snapper and does a good job with calling the line coverages, but he's undersized and not strong enough. If Shelton isn't starting now, if they don't think that Shelton can start next year, or they don't have the future center on the team in Anchrum or Corbett, then they need a future upgrade.I don't know what the draft looks like for first round corners, but I'd rather lock Williams up than risk losing him. First round picks are not guaranteed. Hill is playing well also. I'd love it if they can keep the DBs in tact.

Yes I am for locking down Darious Williams for 2021 as our starting corner too.

OC situation has been interesting to watch since 2018.......It's not been a bad watch. Austin Blythe always seems to be out as the Rams center every season but keeps on rising back up. I don't disagree with you on Blythe's power & strength as we have discussed many times in the past ......it's not good, he is weak & dinky. However, he has proven to check most all the other boxes in what Kromer wants from his OC. He still is the centerpiece of Kromer's OL. Question ...If the Rams were not pleased with OC Coleman Shelton as a possible starting center then why did they not draft an OC in 2020? There were many opportunities!

On top of having OC Shelton in reserve lined up for 2021 Rams have kept the injured bad knee OC Brian Allen who started 9 gms in 2019 still active on the roster. If that was not enough Kromer has a very strong but slow OC Jeremiah Kolone stashed on the PS for the 3rd yr. Total 4 OC's.

In early 2021 Rams will sign PS OC Jeremiah Kolone. They will offer a tender to RFA OC Shelton for 2021 season. He is 6-5/300 plus LBs who's the only real issue is lack of power & strength. But Shelton has plenty of smarts & gifted technically. Rams will offer UFA Blythe a 2 yr contract with a moderate pay raise. They will keep OC Brian Allen on their 2021 roster. Giving them four OC prospects on the roster.

 

[Kevin]

Great reads and perspective from all. Nothing against any ones take.

If there is a single Fan on this board that called Akers and Jefferson as the first two picks in this past years draft I’ll listen.

It’s all speculative, McVay and Sneed tend to due things at the beat of their own drum IMHO.

Nice post. Kupp was extended when some posters thought the team drafted his replacement in Jefferson. Woods was extended when posters here thought he would be traded. Let’s wait and see what our cap number is next year and what the 2021 draft class and free agent market looks like and go from there. Bound to be a few surprises no one predicted.

 

[Dodgersrf]

One of the announcers some games back (think it was Aikman) mentioned that Staley told him if he & Fangio had been in Chicago they would have kept Floyd due to his importance to the scheme. But yeah the way he's playing it's hard to imagine some teams going hard after him which means he'll be tough to keep.

But I'm with you. I fuckin love Floyd. And I don't trust Lewis yet to stay healthy.

Hill is a solid 3rd corner.
We've watched him improve over the past year and a half and he is someone I would like to keep around. He'd probably be much cheaper than JJ. Decent CBs are also harder to replace than safeties. At least with Snead drafting.

Id like to Keep Blythe and Hill. Solid players who greatly improve our depth at a reasonable cost.
Both seem to be fairly durable as well.

 

[Dodgersrf]

One of the announcers some games back (think it was Aikman) mentioned that Staley told him if he & Fangio had been in Chicago they would have kept Floyd due to his importance to the scheme. But yeah the way he's playing it's hard to imagine some teams going hard after him which means he'll be tough to keep.

But I'm with you. I fuckin love Floyd. And I don't trust Lewis yet to stay healthy.

Must have quoted you by mistake