NFLN Fantasy Live, Losing Credibility

[Loyal]

Late at night and I'm getting peeved by "Surprising Sleepers" segment, where a Fantasy Football guru explains how bad the Rams are against the run.
1. Tells me the schmuck doesn't follow the Rams at all and just looks at stats.
2. His "sleeper" is RB Orleans Darkwa, because our run defense is so bad.
3. Ram's are giving up over 24 PTR points per game, whatever the hail that means. All I know is that whatever the average means, must be weighted towards earlier games and not as to how the Rams are playing now against the run. Isn't picking a fantasy guy more about what's a team is doing recently and not an overall stat for the year?

Anyway, nothing the guy had to say after the "the Rams run defense is bad" comment, was anything I wanted to listen to because it told me how little he actually knows.....

 

[ninedeuce]

Fabiano is a fucking first rate idiot. Fantasy “hall of famer” who never wins his league. He predicted Adrian Peterson would have 125 plus yards and 2 tds.

 

[jrry32]

Our run defense is one of the worst ranked run defenses in the NFL. We can all hope Arizona is a sign of things to come, but it's not unreasonable to believe otherwise.

 

[kurtfaulk]

.

Actual nfl analysts just look at the box score. You think fantasy nerds are gonna be any different? I bet they just look at the red zone channel the whole time. Wouldn't have a clue what a real game looks like.

.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Our run defense is one of the worst ranked run defenses in the NFL. We can all hope Arizona is a sign of things to come, but it's not unreasonable to believe otherwise.

It was bad in the first few games but has improved greatly as the season has gone on. Why do you think it is so bad now?

Opponents rushing yards per game.

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona


Seems to be improving. Jacksonville and Fournette are going to get their yards. But in the other two games the running was shut down.

 

[Faceplant]

It was bad in the first few games but has improved greatly as the season has gone on. Why do you think it is so bad now?

Opponents rushing yards per game.

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona


Seems to be improving. Jacksonville and Fournette are going to get their yards. But in the other two games the running was shut down.

Not to mention Fournette got 75 of those on one run. Rams have given up the big run plays, which has to stop. I don't think they have been gashed repeatedly since the Skins game. Dallas also had a big gainer on us with Morris, but the second half is where the game was won.

 

[Farr Be It]

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona

This. Others have already noted the Rams trend toward a much tighter run d.
@jrry32 you should know better. I mean, you follow the team, unlike the lazy statistics princes.

The Rams got gashed horribly against Indy, Washington, San Fran, and the first half of Dallas.

Take one run of Fournette away and I’ll bet the Rams are top 3 against the run in the last 3 1/2 games. That is a trend. Trends are what matter in guessing future results, right?

With your thinking Jerry, should I play Deshaun Watson this week as my fantasy qb? After all he has 19 TD passed! Go with what the stats tell me right? Or should I maybe take into consideration recent realities?

Watson’s rubber band snapped, and the Rams are beasts against the run. The Giants practice squad running back won’t get over 30 yards.

 

[Ramzheart]

It was bad in the first few games but has improved greatly as the season has gone on. Why do you think it is so bad now?

Opponents rushing yards per game.

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona


Seems to be improving. Jacksonville and Fournette are going to get their yards. But in the other two games the running was shut down.

Also to noted,Fournette had that big gash at the beginning and the Rams bottled him up the second half!

 

[fearsomefour]

Also to noted,Fournette had that big gash at the beginning and the Rams bottled him up the second half!

First O play of the game for Jacksonville. 79 Yards.
Watching the game after his second carry I told my wife "good news is the average is down to 42 yards per carry!!"
They bottled the Jags runs game up very well after that first carry.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Opponents rushing yards per game.

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona


Seems to be improving. Jacksonville and Fournette are going to get their yards. But in the other two games the running was shut down.

Seems as if we play well vs the weaker offensive lines. So, expect a great game vs the Giants. If Greg has it fixed, we should be on a roll against running teams...we are much better vs the pass.

 

[Loyal]

Seems as if we play well vs the weaker offensive lines. So, expect a great game vs the Giants. If Greg has it fixed, we should be on a roll against running teams...we are much better vs the pass.

Been tellin you guys, Rams put a Fifty-Burger on the GMen in a shutout!
~LACHAMP46

 

[So Ram]

It was bad in the first few games but has improved greatly as the season has gone on. Why do you think it is so bad now?

Opponents rushing yards per game.

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona


Seems to be improving. Jacksonville and Fournette are going to get their yards. But in the other two games the running was shut down.

There offensive lineman have been hurt. Seattle took a guy from Arizona’s practice squad & started him !!

Arizona is banged up as well the last couple weeks.

 

[Ramlock]

Seems as if we play well vs the weaker offensive lines. So, expect a great game vs the Giants. If Greg has it fixed, we should be on a roll against running teams...we are much better vs the pass.

Greg? Who the hell is Greg?

 

[jrry32]

This. Others have already noted the Rams trend toward a much tighter run d.
@jrry32 you should know better. I mean, you follow the team, unlike the lazy statistics princes.

And since I follow the team, I'm not going to make excuses. Seattle can't run against anyone. That means the only impressive game was stopping an over-the-hill Adrian Peterson before the bye. I hope it's a sign of things to come, but we haven't earned the benefit of the doubt.

And no, you can't remove the long TD run by Fournette. It happened, and that has been our weakness all year. We've given up long runs to Chris Thompson, Fournette, and Alfred Morris.

The Rams are absolutely capable of shutting down the Giants. I hope they do because our run defense is the only thing standing in the way of us having a great defense. However, we have not yet earned the benefit of the doubt. If we shut down the Giants, Texans, and Vikings, we'll see our run defense get props.

The Rams got gashed horribly against Indy, Washington, San Fran, and the first half of Dallas.

Take one run of Fournette away and I’ll bet the Rams are top 3 against the run in the last 3 1/2 games. That is a trend. Trends are what matter in guessing future results, right?

You can't take that run away. It happened. That's been our weakness all year. And for a fantasy guy, a 70-yard TD run gets you 14 points, so you don't give a shit if we hold the HB to 30 yards on his next 20 carries.

With your thinking Jerry, should I play Deshaun Watson this week as my fantasy qb? After all he has 19 TD passed! Go with what the stats tell me right? Or should I maybe take into consideration recent realities?

If Deshaun Watson were healthy, you would be playing him based on how he's performed. The fact that he's on IR makes this a dumb question and a stupid analogy.

 

[jrry32]

It was bad in the first few games but has improved greatly as the season has gone on. Why do you think it is so bad now?

Opponents rushing yards per game.

62 Seattle
142 Jacksonville
25 Arizona


Seems to be improving. Jacksonville and Fournette are going to get their yards. But in the other two games the running was shut down.

I don't think our run defense has done enough to this point in time to earn the benefit of the doubt for earlier in the year. I think you're a bad fantasy player if you start Orleans Darkwa this week because the Giants OL is injured and sucked before the injuries. Plus, the Giants will likely be playing from behind, and Darkwa is not a pass-catching HB.

Thus, it's a bad decision to play him. However, I completely understand why a fantasy guy would look at the stats and think this is a sleeper matchup. Our defense has been gashed far too often this year and given up way too many long runs.

We need to string together a few more weeks of strong play before we earn respect. We are 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in yards per carry allowed, and 29th in rushing TDs allowed. If we were about to play a pass defense with numbers like that, all of you would feel quite confident that we can light them up.

You can take a step back from your fandom and admit that we have a weakness. Winning is great, but our team is not flawless, yet. If the run defense comes together and the offense keeps producing, then we'll have a pretty strong argument for not having any real weaknesses.

 

[Farr Be It]

If Deshaun Watson were healthy, you would be playing him based on how he's performed. The fact that he's on IR makes this a dumb question and a stupid analogy.

Again, I know you are smart enough to get the point. You wouldn’t play Watson this week based on recent events. He tore his ACL.

You also may not be ‘dumb’ enough to spout off about the Rams ‘horrible run defense’ based on recent events. They have given up 85 yards a game in the last month.

So why did you give that “professional” fantasy analyst such latitude?

 

[jrry32]

Again, I know you are smart enough to get the point. You wouldn’t play Watson this week based on recent events. He tore his ACL.

There is no point to get. It's a bad analogy. The Giants are going to play Sunday. Deshaun Watson is not going to play Sunday. You'd be an absolute idiot to play a guy in fantasy who is on IR. It's perfectly acceptable to play a HB who is up against a run defense that is statistically one of the worst in the NFL. I think it's a dumb move if you consider the football involved, but I also understand why a fantasy pundit would like it as a sleeper matchup. His job is to analyze the numbers, not the football.

You also may not be ‘dumb’ enough to spout off about the Rams ‘horrible run defense’ based on recent events. They have given up 85 yards a game in the last month.

In our last four games, we gave up 189 rushing yards to Dallas, 62 rushing yards to Seattle, 169 rushing yards to Jacksonville, and 25 rushing yards to Arizona. Do you see a pattern? I don't. Our defense hasn't yet proven it can consistently stop the run.

So why did you give that “professional” fantasy analyst such latitude?

Because he's not a Rams fan and is doing his job. He's not going to assume the best of our defense, and he's going to go off of what the numbers are telling him.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Greg? Who the hell is Greg?

Oh shit...I must be hung over....Son of Bum....

I will say, Greg has them Browns running around on defense tho....

 

[Farr Be It]

There is no point to get. It's a bad analogy. The Giants are going to play Sunday. Deshaun Watson is not going to play Sunday. You'd be an absolute idiot to play a guy in fantasy who is on IR. It's perfectly acceptable to play a HB who is up against a run defense that is statistically one of the worst in the NFL. I think it's a dumb move if you consider the football involved, but I also understand why a fantasy pundit would like it as a sleeper matchup. His job is to analyze the numbers, not the football.



In our last four games, we gave up 189 rushing yards to Dallas, 62 rushing yards to Seattle, 169 rushing yards to Jacksonville, and 25 rushing yards to Arizona. Do you see a pattern? I don't. Our defense hasn't yet proven it can consistently stop the run.



Because he's not a Rams fan and is doing his job. He's not going to assume the best of our defense, and he's going to go off of what the numbers are telling him.

I don’t want to travel down this rabbit hole with you Jerry. It’s pretty clear what my analogy was. The fantasy loser you are defending is a moron. He doesn’t have a grasp on reality. Relying on numbers is never a formula for success. Even you laying them out doesn’t tell the story Jerry.

You are talking to a board of guys here that have watched the games. Our opinion is sooo much more accurate than the kid in moms basement that hasn’t seen one play and is looking at league rankings. I know deep down you know the Rams run D is not going to let ‘Orleans’ whatshisface do jack crap Sunday.

 

[jrry32]

I don’t want to travel down this rabbit hole with you Jerry. It’s pretty clear what my analogy was. The fantasy loser you are defending is a moron. He doesn’t have a grasp on reality. Relying on numbers is never a formula for success. Even you laying them out doesn’t tell the story Jerry.

Your analogy wasn't applicable. The Giants are playing Sunday. Their HB is playing Sunday. It's not a good comparison. I don't know why you thought it was. Frankly, I felt you were insulting my intelligence when you actually claimed that my thinking is that you should start a player on IR. Because it wasn't, and it still isn't.

Relying on numbers can be a formula for success. In a lot of contexts, you'll do well relying on objective data (and the objective data says that Deshaun is going to score 0 points for the rest of the year, so please do not keep pushing that analogy). However, here, looking deeper is a good idea. The football context surrounding this game does make it a bad matchup for Orleans Darkwa. I don't disagree with you there. I've already explained why I think playing Darkwa is a mistake.

You are talking to a board of guys here that have watched the games. Our opinion is sooo much more accurate than the kid in moms basement that hasn’t seen one play and is looking at league rankings. I know deep down you know the Rams run D is not going to let ‘Orleans’ whatshisface do jack crap Sunday.

Deep down? I've already said as much. What I'm defending is that he's not wrong by the numbers. We are Rams fans. We assume the BEST about our team (at least on this board, we almost universally do). That's not his job. That's not the job of others who aren't Rams fans. You can't get fed up because they're not looking at a small sample size and assuming the absolute best about it.

You can be a Rams fan and still understand the perspectives of those who are not.