NFC West

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Ballhawk

Ballhawk

Please don't confuse my experience for pessimism!
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Hi all!
Since the Dead birds lost again can anyone tell me if we can pass them for the division lead if we win on Tuesday?
I can't figure our the tie breaker mess!
 
No because they'll still have a better record within the division with only 1 loss.
 
Yup. No matter what we do Tuesday, they're still going to be heading into Christmas atop the division.
 
kurtfaulk said:
.

How is it that the whiners can't beat anyone in the division except the Rams? Remember the year they had 2 wins for the whole season? Both against the Rams.

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Probably build their team around that match-up alone? Otherwise I have no clue.
 
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Mostly, I think it is on the game plan the Rams use against the 9ers. Both offense and defense. I t looks the same every game and SF just does the same thing every game. Run the ball and convert short 3rd down passes. There lbs dominate our line of scrimmage. We have to run at them not misdirection cause those lbs are to fast. We have to establish the run to get them out of their prefered D.
 
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Pertinent tie breakers are:

Division
Common opponent
Conference

Conference we have them now by one game (all their losses are to NFC teams where only three of ours are).

Now that they lost to Detroit, common opponent is getting closer - we both lost to GB. We lost to Tennessee who they beat, they lost to Detroit who we beat. But one of their losses is to Carolina who we don't play - so they currently have us by one game (our loss to SF).

So what it comes down to is this:

We need them to lose to either the Colts or Cowboys - both likely IMO - while we finish one game ahead of them.

The only way we can finish with the same record as them and win the division is if we beat the Seahawks, Vikings and Niners - lose to the Ravens - and they lose to Seattle (in this example, we could lose to the Vikings as long as they lose to the Colts for common opponents to be even).

In that scenario, we would both finish 11-6 or 12-5 and we would win the tiebreaker on conference record because division and common opponents would be tied.

But if they beat the Colts, lost to the Cowboys and Seahawks.

And we lose to the Vikings and Ravens - they would have the tiebreaker over us via record against common opponents.


To summarize:

The way the Cards are playing, they're going to lose both upcoming games so as long as we finish 3-1, division should be ours.
 
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IT would be such an epic collapse if the Cards lose the West. I would like one home game at least, if the Rams win the division…
 
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Loyal said:
IT would be such an epic collapse if the Cards lose the West. I would like one home game at least, if the Rams win the division…
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WE have the tie breaker with a head to head win over the Bucs, if that comes into play at some point.
 
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I've been playing with the playoff calculator and there are plenty of scenarios where the Packers, Cowboys or Bucs can take the #1 seed entering the playoffs.

Right now, the Packers are in the driver's seat with a full game up on everyone else.

Everyone of the potential NFC playoff teams have teams on their schedule that can beat them or have in the case of the Packers (Vikings) and the Rams (9ers). There could be more, I'd have to check.

The Rams just need to focus on the team in front of them and take each game as it comes.

Honestly, if we win out this 4 game stretch, we're gonna be in great shape heading into the playoffs... Lord willing...
 
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FrantikRam said:
Pertinent tie breakers are:

Division
Common opponent
Conference

Conference we have them now by one game (all their losses are to NFC teams where only three of ours are).

Now that they lost to Detroit, common opponent is getting closer - we both lost to GB. We lost to Tennessee who they beat, they lost to Detroit who we beat. But one of their losses is to Carolina who we don't play - so they currently have us by one game (our loss to SF).

So what it comes down to is this:

We need them to lose to either the Colts or Cowboys - both likely IMO - while we finish one game ahead of them.

The only way we can finish with the same record as them and win the division is if we beat the Seahawks, Vikings and Niners - lose to the Ravens - and they lose to Seattle (in this example, we could lose to the Vikings as long as they lose to the Colts for common opponents to be even).

In that scenario, we would both finish 11-6 or 12-5 and we would win the tiebreaker on conference record because division and common opponents would be tied.

But if they beat the Colts, lost to the Cowboys and Seahawks.

And we lose to the Vikings and Ravens - they would have the tiebreaker over us via record against common opponents.


To summarize:

The way the Cards are playing, they're going to lose both upcoming games so as long as we finish 3-1, division should be ours.
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The cardinals kind of collapsed towards the end of last season. I'm hoping they collapse enough for us to win the division.
 
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If the Rams win out they could end up as high as the 2nd seed. Regardless, if they end up the wildcard at #5 that isn't a bad slot to land. They would play the #4 seed which could be Dallas a very winnable game.

IMO I'd rather be the #5 seed than the #3 seed because they play the #6 seed which could be the Niners.
 
Rams- Cards tiebreaker scenarios:

Rams can only win tiebreaker under certain conditions if both teams end up either 11-6 or 12-5.

For Rams to win tiebreaker, gotta match Cards at 4-2 in div games. So Rams must beat Hawks AND Niners, AND Cards must lose to Hawks in finale.

And Rams must keep pace in common opponents metric. So either Rams beat Vikes AND Cards beat Colts, or Rams lose to Vikes AND Cards lose to Colts. (Rams and Cards are currently tied in "common opponent outside of division" tiebreaker.)

Bottom line: easiest way for Rams to win division is if they finish with a better overall record. But there are 2 distinct scenarios where Rams and Cards end up tied and Rams win tiebreaker. (I plugged the results into the espn playoff machine).

Here's one Rams win tiebreak scenario:

Rams beat hawks
Rams Beat vikes
Rams Lose to Balt
Rams Beat niners
Rams finish 12-5

Cards beat Colts
Cards beat Cowboys
Cards lose to Hawks
Cards finish 12-5

In this scenario, Rams and Cards would be tied on first 3 tiebreakers:

Head to head
Div record
Common opponent record

Rams would win on 4th tiebreaker, conference record (since Rams lost to Tenn but Cards lost to Carolina).

There is one other scenario where Rams win tiebreaker at 11-6, also. It's the same as above except Rams lose to Vikes and Cards lose to Colts, and therefore both Cards and Rams end up 11-6.

Again, easiest way for Rams to win division is to avoid tiebreakers. Cards absolutely must lose to Hawks for Rams to have a chance at winning a tiebreaker scenario.
 
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majrleaged said:
Mostly, I think it is on the game plan the Rams use against the 9ers. Both offense and defense. I t looks the same every game and SF just does the same thing every game. Run the ball and convert short 3rd down passes. There lbs dominate our line of scrimmage. We have to run at them not misdirection cause those lbs are to fast. We have to establish the run to get them out of their prefered D.
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I have no idea how we win that game to be honest. No idea. They will be the more physical team. We will struggle to run the ball, and we will struggle to stop their run. I have zero confidence about this one, but I do think we win the other 3 games.
 
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