Nate Frazier

[Twopointtry]

Down Goes Frazier

Reviewing how draft experts view Georgia running back Nate Frazier, I found 10 boards or experts who say he's a 2nd round prospect or even a late 1st round pick. One board compared Frazier to JK Dobbins and D'Andre Swift. The only 2 experts I could find who are low on Frazier were Shane Hallam, who mocked him as a 5th round pick and Ian Cummings. I don't know exactly what IC thinks about Frazier, because I couldn't find an actual profile, but it must be really bad, considering that Frazier is only a 6th round prospect on the PFN board and the other PFN expert, Jacob Infante, likes Frazier, ranking him as the 4th best RB.

Coming out of HS, Frazier was one of the top RB recruits in the nation. He's the most athletically gifted back in next year's draft. Consequently, I think he has the highest ceiling of any of the RBs in the class. He's a very explosive RB who can break long runs, but he's also a physical and punishing runner.

Near the very end of the 6th round of the 2023 draft, the Rams drafted Zach Evans from Ole Miss. Evans was a very highly touted 5-star recruit, ranked as the 16th overall prospect in the country by the 247sports composite. The only reason he wasn't the top RB recruit was at slot 15, ranked immediately ahead of him, was Bijan Robinson. Evans averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in college, yet never really lived up to the hype he had as a HS recruit.

When the Rams drafted Evans, Cam Akers was projected to be the starter for 2023, and Kyren Williams was entering his 2nd season after a quiet rookie campaign. Some people thought that Evans was a draft steal who was going to supplant Akers to become the starting RB. In hindsight, that idea looks silly. Evans is no longer playing pro football at any level, retired from the sport. He finished his NFL career with 9 carries for 19 yards.

Snead and McVay have drafted a RB in almost every draft they have done together. I could see them being interested in Frazier, because he's basically what you'd get if you took Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers and combined them into one RB. The Rams should be cautious about using our 2nd round pick on Frazier. There are warning signs in his tape supporting Hallam and Cummings's side of the argument and those flaws could prevent Frazier from ever becoming an NFL starter.

 

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Part 1: Background

Name, Age: Nate Frazier. True Junior, Georgia. Turns 22 in September of 2027. Would be an early entrant for the draft. Majoring in communication studies.

Size, estimated speed: Listed by UGA as 5'10'' tall and 205 pounds. Was listed as 210 pounds in 2024. Draftbuzz 4.35 seconds in 40. Brian Bosarge 4.45 to 4.54 seconds in 40. Draftscout 4.38 seconds in 40, 5'9 3/4'' tall, 205 pounds.

4-star recruit from Compton, CA. Played at powerhouse Mater Dei. WR and S, then transitioned to RB as JR in HS due to injury to a different RB on the team. Track sprinter in HS, ran 10.58 seconds in 100 meters. Ranked as the top RB recruit in the country on some boards. Raised by single mother. Dad died in March of 2026. Ranked as the 2nd best RB in the country, 71st overall recruit, by 247sports composite.

Lower leg injury in 2025 bowl game. Lower leg injury in 2026 spring game. Appeared to suffer a lower leg injury early in 2024 season.

2024 (13 games, 3 starts): 133-671-8 rushing, 5.0 average, 12-85 receiving, 3 fumbles. 81.5 in PFN Impact score, 42nd in country, 89th in elusiveness, 22nd in boom/bust
2025 (14 games, 10 starts) 173-947-6 rushing, 5.5 average, 16-116-1 receiving, 2 fumbles. 81.4 in PFN Impact score, 31st in country, 48th in elusiveness, 110th in boom/bust

A fumble every 67 touches, a poor rate.

DraftBuzz late 1st round projection, 32. (+) Elite speed. (-) 2 fumbles, middling pass protection tape
Sporting News (Bill Bender) big board 34th overall, the top RB
Chris Farbolin: 2nd round prospect but 1st round upside with a strong 2026 season. (+) As good a pure runner as anyone in the country. Shifty, excellent short-area burst, COD to make defenders miss, elite top end speed, fights through contact, consistently turns 3-yard runs into 5-yard runs, exceptional vision, reliable near the goalline, efficient at both zone and gap runs. (-) Not a receiving threat, limited route tree, fumbles in 2024.
PFF big board 45
Travis May mock 2nd round, 54
Brian Bosarge: Day 2 prospect. (+) Explosive acceleration, elite contact balance, low COG with excellent pad level, proven production, exceptional natural rushing instincts. (-) pre-snap blitz recognition, anchor strength pass blocking, route tree.
StickToTheModel 62 on consensus board. JK Dobbins and D'Andre Swift among some of his NFL comps. (+) The top RB in 2027 draft. Top gear in 2 to 3 strides with sudden acceleration, true home run threat, contact balance, big jump in YAC in 2025, decisive reads, doesn't dance in backfield, natural hands as former WR in HS, caught 28 out of 34 targets, scheme diverse. (-) Fumbles, lacks patience to set up 2nd level blocks, below average pass blocking, undersized frame, 2 drops each season, not instinctive.
Tankathon 64
Drafttek 65
Draftscout: Day 2 prospect
NFLMDD sim 139
Shane Hallam mock 169, 5th round
PFN board 184. Not selected in Ian Cummings's 3-round mock. Jacob Infante ranks as 4th best RB in draft.
PFSN simulator 189, the 14th best RB
Sam Teets not yet evaluated

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 2: Strengths

Early entrant who would be about a year younger than an average prospect.

Blend of size, speed and strength that translates well to the NFL. High ceiling with athletic traits normally associated with Pro Bowl level RBs.

Very strong upper and lower body, a grown man. Dense, compact build with naturally low COG. Reportedly did over 20 bench reps at 225 pounds in HS.

Played in pro-style offense with both gap and zone run concepts. QB sometimes under center. Scheme diverse RB who has speed to run outside and strength and attitude to run inside between the tackles.

High energy, urgent, hyper, aggressive attacking running style.

Elite explosiveness, hitting the LOS with velocity and downhill momentum. Speed burst to beat defenders to the edge and turn upfield, can bounce runs outside.

Excellent home run ability to take it to the house if given an open lane. Track athlete long speed. Defense must honor his big play ability when he catches swing passes in the flat.

Slippery in the hole. Very good start/stop explosiveness. Good contact balance to withstand hits. Can spin or twist his body to continue to drive forward through tackles and squeeze out a few more yards.

Shrugs off leg tackles. Finishes runs with power, not afraid to plow into defenders. Hammers it up the middle with conviction.

Experienced and productive after only 2 seasons in college. Solid career YPC average.

Was more attentive to ball security later in 2025 season.

As you would expect for a player from Compton, has gritty toughness, nothing soft or timid about his play style.

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 3: Weaknesses

Playing in LA for the Rams might be the worst situation for his career. One reason he went to UGA was to avoid getting into situations back home where he might get into trouble. Those factors apply ten-fold once he enters the NFL. He has an immature personality, a man child. Inflated ego. People who don't mean well and have their own agendas might try to take advantage of him. He likely would be better off playing in a city far away from LA where he could focus on football and be less likely to get dragged into off-field distractions.

Not a patient runner. Inefficient movement, leaking momentum behind the LOS as he fixes the angle of his shoulder pads approaching the line. Excessive upper body shifts sometimes cause him to hit the breaks behind the LOS instead of smoothly accelerating into the hole. Loses speed and momentum when he makes lateral cuts, really leaks speed badly on some plays. Hips too tight making cuts in the hole. Slight pause if he gets tripped up at 2nd level. Tight hips can cause the turf monster to trip him and cause him to fall down.

Poor vision. Zone run, the DL twists, RB can beat the defense if he bends it back but instead he stays frontside and runs directly into an unblocked defender for a TFL. On zone run, should have cut behind the LT. Short 3rd down, the seam is to the left of the center, RB goes to the right side of the center and gets tackled by the DT right at the 1st down marker. Outside zone, didn't read the blocks correctly to find cutback. Inside zone, he should follow the TE and go to the left of the center, but instead RB slams into the back of the RG, wasting an enormous hole, like he has blinders on or he's blindfolded.

One of my big issues with Frazier is he isn't a creative runner. Zero creativity and imagination. Over and over in his games, he has opportunities to manipulate defenders and set them up for a 2nd cut in the hole to try to beat them, but he never attempts such a move. There literally wasn't a single play on his entire tape where he tried it. Every single time he opted for the very basic, just run straight forward approach. This is a huge red flag. In the NFL, there aren't going to constantly be huge gaping holes to run through. If the RB doesn't understand how to manufacture space and beat the 1st defender, he isn't going to consistently break chunk runs. It doesn't matter how fast you run the 40 if you never even get to the 2nd level and keep getting stuffed near the LOS.

The DT is stacking his block and about to counter towards the RB. Frazier has a chance to beat the DT if he sets him up by acting like he's running into the designated hole but then making a 2nd cut into a different hole, but instead he just runs straight into the DT. Opportunity for big run if he beats the safety, but he just ran in a straight line and got stuffed at the LOS. Had chance for huge run if he beats CB in space to get to edge but doesn't even try for it.

The RT tosses the DE to the ground. The TE works up to the OLB, so only the S is left at the POA. If RB can beat the S, should be a huge gain. There is a huge running lane, you could have driven a car through it. RB should stay close to the RT, then try to beat the S to get to the outside. Instead, RB veers towards the middle and runs forward in a perfectly straight line. Still gets a decent gain since the hole was huge but completely wasted a golden opportunity to rip off an even bigger run.

Doesn't press the hole to manipulate unblocked defenders.

Disappointing ability to beat defenders 1 vs 1 in space. Concerning hip tightness in space. Average lateral jump cut agility and doesn't have a good stiff arm. Wasted steps at 2nd level trying to juke defenders attacking downhill in run support. Ducks his head and plows into LBs instead of trying to make them miss.

Excessive moment and extra steps at 2nd level not properly anticipating block development, wasting fractions of a second and losing tempo right at the moment of truth. Wasted juke moves at 2nd level.

Doesn't use his blocks well to set up defenders at 2nd and 3rd levels, too impatient lacking vision and natural instincts, wasting opportunities to unleash his elite speed to create big plays.

Bad habit of trying to bounce runs outside instead of cutting his losses and driving forward towards the LOS. Tried to bounce outside when there was a cutback opportunity if he just kept probing up the middle. Poor decision to try to bounce outside when there was a narrow opening available inside.

What happens repeatedly due to his lack of creativity, average vision and average elusiveness is he takes big hits squarely to his body in the hole. He doesn't give the defender half a body and take glancing blows. He has to eat 100% of the power and the pain. I think this will contribute to fumbles and will create durability issues.

Very poor career fumble rate. Ball not tucked to his chest. Doesn't keep 2 hands on the ball in traffic.

UGA never used him on 3rd downs and obvious passing situations. Almost no pass blocking plays on his tape. Pathetic chip block attempt. Showed poor awareness as blocker.

Hands of stone, doesn't have soft hands catching the ball, susceptible to ugly drops.

Below average receiving ability. Not a sudden route runner. No sudden COD on routes. Tight hips inhibit route running ability. Tightly wound upper body, not flexible or enough body control to adjust to the flight of the ball. Wasn't used as a receiver for much else besides passes to the flat and he was inefficient even on those simplistic routes. Tight hips cause him to be slow releasing into his route if there is a roadblock in his path. Doesn't adjust the angle of his route on the fly to help out the QB, not an instinctive and adaptive receiver, too robotic.

Not detail oriented carrying out misdirection fakes.

Below average size to be a prototypical workhorse RB1. Nearly 20 pounds lighter than Todd Gurley. Not a plus option as a short-yardage RB or near the end zone.

Split time with other RBs. Benefitted from good blocking from the OL and the TEs. In the Alabama game, Frazier got benched after a costly fumble and didn't play for the remainder of the game. The offense did fine without Frazier. If Frazier had suffered a season ending injury in fall camp and hadn't played at all in 2025, I'm honestly not sure that UGA would have missed him. UGA has a stacked roster; they have multiple other talented RBs. Is there really anything special about his production?

Something else that really bothered me is I don't see any signs of improvement or development. He was the same player making the same mistakes in 2025 as he was in 2024.

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 4: Draft Grade and Pro Comp

4th round grade. Tatum Bell (2nd round 2004, Denver Broncos, Oklahoma State).

If Nate Frazier, Tre Mason (3rd round) and Darrell Henderson (3rd round) were all in the same draft class, I'd rank Frazier as the best of those 3 RBs. On the other hand, I would be unlikely to draft any of them in the early rounds.

In 2004, Denver made one of the biggest trades in NFL history, sending Clinton Portis to Washington for Champ Bailey. The 2nd round pick the Broncos used on Bell was part of the trade compensation. Bell was very fast but had a reputation as a fumbler.

Bell became part of a time-share RB rotation for the Broncos. He had 921 rushing yards in 2005 and 1,025 yards in 2006. While the yardage looks nice, remember that this was the Mike Shanahan era for the Broncos, so your grandmother probably could have run for 500 yards in their system. Bell also had 8 fumbles over those 2 seasons. In 2007, Denver decided to sign Travis Henry to a 5-year contract to become their featured starting RB. Bell was traded to the Detroit Lions as part of a package to acquire Dry Bly. Henry's contract blew up in the face of the Broncos when Henry got arrested for cocaine trafficking. Detroit didn't fare any better and in hindsight it was nearly pointless for them to get Bell in the trade.

I think 2027 is going to be an abnormally weak RB draft class. The weak 2014 draft, where the Rams got Tre Mason, was weak at the top but there was good depth in that class, so my fear is that 2027 could end up being even weaker than 2014. This vacuum could help push Frazier up the board and cause him to get drafted much earlier than he would go in a better RB class.

I think the Rams should pass on Frazier in the early rounds. Just as Tatum Bell never became a true RB1, I don't think Frazier will become a plus starter in the NFL. While he's very explosive, strong and fast, he doesn't have good instincts, vision, creativity or technical polish. He's also slightly undersized. Unless he greatly improves his blocking and receiving, it is going to be difficult for him to earn playing time, because the NFL is such a pass-oriented league. Frazier might have a high ceiling but he also has a big bust factor.

Frazier is the anti-Antwan Raymond. If you remember my thread about Raymond, he has outstanding vision, almost never fumbles, soft hands as a receiver, is a great pass blocker and is super agile at stacking small angle 2nd level cuts. The problem is Raymond has poor long speed, is bad running outside, has poor leg drive and is too small. Raymond has great skills but doesn't have great physical and athletic traits. In nearly every category, Frazier is flipped completely the opposite direction. If we could transplant Raymond's best attributes into Frazier's body, we'd have an All-Pro running back. Alas, that's not how the draft works.

 

[Memento]

Coming out of HS, Frazier was one of the top RB recruits in the nation. He's the most athletically gifted back in next year's draft. Consequently, I think he has the highest ceiling of any of the RBs in the class. He's a very explosive RB who can break long runs, but he's also a physical and punishing runner.

Might be/probably is my bias on the bolded italics part, but Ahmad Hardy (current Mizzou Tiger) and Kewan Lacy (former Mizzou Tiger) disagree.

 

[Twopointtry]

Might be/probably is my bias on the bolded italics part, but Ahmad Hardy (current Mizzou Tiger) and Kewan Lacy (former Mizzou Tiger) disagree.

Hey, is Hardy going to play this season? What's the latest on his recovery from being shot?

 

[Memento]

Hey, is Hardy going to play this season? What's the latest on his recovery from being shot?

It has been stated by ESPN that he's cleared for football activities, but that his status is in the air.

It's a difficult injury to ascertain; he got hit in the upper leg, and the bullet hit a bone there. Honestly, any gunshot wound in the thigh or higher scares the shit out of me; too easy to bleed out with an artery hit. I'd say Hardy is lucky to be alive because there's a lot of scary arteries to blow in the thigh - see Sean Taylor and many other examples in many other places - and if it hit the bone, that's a potentially broken bone in the thigh. I wouldn't mind if he spent the year recovering; that's absolutely his right after such an injury.

Really, this whole thing pisses me off because he didn't even do anything wrong at all. All he did was attend a rap concert. Yes, it was a late one, but some concerts do happen late in the night. It wasn't like he was barhopping or shit like that, and he wasn't even intoxicated at all; all he was doing was literally having fun in what should've been a safe way, and he and someone else attending a fun concert, gets shot by some impotent nutjob with a gun when he wasn't even involved.

 

[Twopointtry]

Really, this whole thing pisses me off because he didn't even do anything wrong at all. All he did was attend a rap concert. Yes, it was a late one, but some concerts do happen late in the night. It wasn't like he was barhopping or shit like that, and he wasn't even intoxicated at all; all he was doing was literally having fun in what should've been a safe way, and he and someone else attending a fun concert, gets shot by some impotent nutjob with a gun when he wasn't even involved.

I thought the suspects were former HS teammates, which implied to me that he was targeted. Just a really sad situation. On an unrelated/related note, did you see that Stedman Bailey was recently arrested? He tried to comeback after getting shot. Bet you can't guess why he was arrested.

 

[Memento]

I thought the suspects were former HS teammates, which implied to me that he was targeted. Just a really sad situation. On an unrelated/related note, did you see that Stedman Bailey was recently arrested? He tried to comeback after getting shot. Bet you can't guess why he was arrested.

It's crazy why he was arrested, but it's far from the worst thing I've seen/heard of (especially considering the Vikings "party boat" way back in the early 2010s). At least he isn't beating/murdering his girlfriend, driving drunk and killing people with that, or raping women (because it seems, from first glance, that - while inappropriate for a bar setting - it was absolutely consensual, and we'll see how the court sees it because both have pled not guilty).

As for Hardy, I don't think the suspect (only one charged with the shooting; there were three other people - people of interest - who were his high school teammates who were arrested and later released) knew him. Hardy wasn't targeted, from everything I've seen; it was an absolute random shooting by one person.