Merlin's Thanksgiving Offseason Mock

[dieterbrock]

If you’re looking for an explosive RB, keep an eye on Kyle Monangai from Rutgers. Dude is a spark plug

 

[JonRam99]

Good draft, especially if we can get that Warren kid. He's a difference maker, Penn uses him in many packages, he is their best weapon.
The F/A's are good, and after watching Calais bully our OTs around I'm still game.
Tee is the key imo... if we don't get him we need to go WR with our 1st pick.

 

[OldSchool]

One note is I was wrong about the TE group being weak. I have not went through the players for the record. I was commenting off memory re: the PFF draft preview I posted a week or so ago and confused a couple positions in my mind.

But I still covet Warren. Hope McVay does too.

Yeah there are about 6 TE I could see starting day 1 in this draft class.

 

[OldSchool]

Obviously these things are not always accurate, all it takes is a bidding war to start or somebody wanting to pay heavily with all their free agent money. But this is what spotrac lists for his market value. Less than Godwin for the record.

Tee Higgins | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Tee Higgins contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

 

[Memphis Ram]

Think that's more than it'll take for Higgins and I'm not a huge fan of the signing but I get it. Not sure what route I want the Rams to go in the draft tbh but you addressed some of the needs we have so right on!

25-26 year old stud WR hitting the free agent market after the contracts signed this past offseason? California taxes? Wouldn't shock me one bit if it took a $30 million per deal.

@Merlin
Well Conner just got a 2 year extension so that option is out.

Upon further review, I'm already beginning to waiver on Warren. Love the player and he may be the safest player at their selection, but if McVay doesn't feature him, is he worth using a 1st round selection on? Especially with the TE depth in the class?

 

[Memphis Ram]

Obviously these things are not always accurate, all it takes is a bidding war to start or somebody wanting to pay heavily with all their free agent money. But this is what spotrac lists for his market value. Less than Godwin for the record.

Tee Higgins | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Tee Higgins contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Looks like that average annual guestimate number is less than what he made this year on the franchise tag. And if I'm reading correctly, Goodwin's deal was signed 4 years ago.

 

[OldSchool]

25-26 year old stud WR hitting the free agent market after the contracts signed this past offseason? California taxes? Wouldn't shock me one bit if it took a $30 million per deal.

@Merlin
Well Conner just got a 2 year extension so that option is out.

Upon further review, I'm already beginning to waiver on Warren. Love the player and he may be the safest player at their selection, but if McVay doesn't feature him, is he worth using a 1st round selection on? Especially with the TE depth in the class?

Nothing should be shocking in free agency.

 

[OldSchool]

Looks like that average annual guestimate number is less than what he made this year on the franchise tag.

Not really, read further.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

25-26 year old stud WR hitting the free agent market after the contracts signed this past offseason? California taxes? Wouldn't shock me one bit if it took a $30 million per deal.

@Merlin
Well Conner just got a 2 year extension so that option is out.

Upon further review, I'm already beginning to waiver on Warren. Love the player and he may be the safest player at their selection, but if McVay doesn't feature him, is he worth using a 1st round selection on? Especially with the TE depth in the class?

If he could have Kelce or Andrews type impact, then he’s worth it. But that’s up Les and the coach to figure out. He is a complete TE +. Add Hegins and Warren to the offense and they would be loaded with weapons.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

If you’re looking for an explosive RB, keep an eye on Kyle Monangai from Rutgers. Dude is a spark plug

Nick Singleton has the breakaway speed this offense needs.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Not really, read further.

View attachment 68508

Ok. I was going by the $18.8 million figure in orange.

We will see, but I still think he'll get much more on the open market which I don't think some of the players listed for their calculations ever reached.

 

[OldSchool]

Ok. I was going by the $18.8 million figure in orange.

We will see, but I still think he'll get much more on the open market which I don't think some of the players listed for their calculations ever reached.

I don't disagree, as I said it just takes one team, usually desperate as we see every year, to pay the number talked about here. That or a bidding war of a couple of playoff teams. To me though not sure I pay that much money to Higgins. He's missed time each of the last couple of years and has benefited a lot from having Chase on the other side from him. That $30 million eats half of our open cap space and there are some areas we need to address a lot more than an X WR. Will he make our offense better or more dynamic? For sure but is that the only way to do that or the best way to do it or the best way to spend the cap space? Only time would tell all I'm doing is offering my input on this mock draft.

 

[Merlin]

There are two main forks in the road this offseason: double down on Stafford or move him and rebuild.

If they double down on Stafford they'll need to roll the dice a bit on the OL to add the weapons he needs to make a run or maybe two before he retires. The dude has hard miles. I don't think he's gonna be playing to 40. And that comes with a lot of risk, but also a lot of potential reward.

If not then it's gonna be a couple offseasons of building because we gotta add the QB and probably the LT. I don't know that McVay is down for that. This is why as I looked over the roster and whatnot it feels like they'll go the weapons route.

As to cap space the ledger is looking better than it has for years. So is it that much a problem to load it up again for a couple attempts to win another ring? For myself I am good with either direction, as we have a recent title. No problem with them moving Stafford and rebuilding it right. I just suspect McVay is going to want to take another shot in 2025.

 

[OldSchool]

If they double down on Stafford they'll need to roll the dice a bit on the OL to add the weapons he needs to make a run or maybe two before he retires.

I don't see how this has to be true at all. Sorry I get it, hell I was making mocks last year of us drafting a WR in the 1st to add weapons for the final couple years of Stafford. I think they could just as well add major offensive line upgrades to keep him upright and open running lanes and that being as big if not as big of an improvement for 9.

 

[Merlin]

I don't see how this has to be true at all. Sorry I get it, hell I was making mocks last year of us drafting a WR in the 1st to add weapons for the final couple years of Stafford. I think they could just as well add major offensive line upgrades to keep him upright and open running lanes and that being as big if not as big of an improvement for 9.

Sure you never know what they're thinking, this is just how I see it. Because if they decide to rebuild the OL they're going to need that top pick for a Tackle. And we also have real needs on defense. They could ignore the defense, but I don't think they'll do that because DL and CB are both strengths of this draft and primary needs for us. Also we have a few young studs on the DL who could be stars if we put the right pieces around them, not to mention every time McVay has a good defense he goes deep in the playoffs.

So way I see it if they want to do significant rework on the OL they're gonna need to move Stafford.

 

[OldSchool]

Sure you never know what they're thinking, this is just how I see it. Because if they decide to rebuild the OL they're going to need that top pick for a Tackle. And we also have real needs on defense. They could ignore the defense, but I don't think they'll do that because DL and CB are both strengths of this draft and primary needs for us. Also we have a few young studs on the DL who could be stars if we put the right pieces around them, not to mention every time McVay has a good defense he goes deep in the playoffs.

So way I see it if they want to do significant rework on the OL they're gonna need to move Stafford.

BTW Always fun talking/debating these things with you (not arguing just talking ) This though reminds me of the debate last year going into the draft. Last year there was some thinking we had to take a DT/NT in the first and get the best edge in the second. We did it the opposite and it proved to be a great way to draft.

I do think there are a couple guys that will start day 1 at LT or RT that will be there in the 1st for us. And the guy I'm locked in on for a NT should be there with our 3rd round pick in Dontay Corleone. Anything can and will happen and it's fun to talk about and watch happen.

 

[Merlin]

BTW Always fun talking/debating these things with you (not arguing just talking ) This though reminds me of the debate last year going into the draft. Last year there was some thinking we had to take a DT/NT in the first and get the best edge in the second. We did it the opposite and it proved to be a great way to draft.

I do think there are a couple guys that will start day 1 at LT or RT that will be there in the 1st for us. And the guy I'm locked in on for a NT should be there with our 3rd round pick in Dontay Corleone. Anything can and will happen and it's fun to talk about and watch happen.

It is a really interesting thing to be looking at right now. There are factors that could change or determine how the Rams decide, but until we know where we are drafting and how well everyone performs down the stretch this is definitely an early conversation. That said everything seems to relate to what they do at QB and LT because of how the resources slot.

For example looking at the OL I admit I am making some assumptions. But I figure they're not going to condemn Avila for having what has so far been a poor sophomore season. Also Dotson isn't going anywhere, as he was one of our two good FA additions. Limmer is one stout dude, so he should be able to be our starting Center, though if they do want to add another that would be midrounds, i.e. they don't need the first round pick for that. Lastly Havenstein has another year at $11M per which is well within his performance range.

Jackson thus is the big jigsaw piece on the line. Looking at him I would say the best reason to retain him (tag or signing) would be if we're gonna push forward with Stafford. But if we elect to move Stafford, which might not be as much a longshot as people may think given that he has not consistently played well since winning that title, then what is the point of rolling the dice on Jackson. Because Jackson is I think a dice roll. I think he is quite risky to pay.

Going with a rookie at QB or moving on from Stafford means hell why not draft the LT of the future with that high pick and get that in place while you entertain QB castoffs and try to hit on QBs in the draft. And if they go QB with the top pick it's the same effect, where we probably see them move Kupp to help them jump up and grab a better OT than what they're looking at third round. Something along those lines. Either way I think the translation is if Stafford is out then you unfuck the OTs. If Stafford is not out they are good enough to where you juice the weapons and make a run.

 

[DzRams]

Obviously these things are not always accurate, all it takes is a bidding war to start or somebody wanting to pay heavily with all their free agent money. But this is what spotrac lists for his market value. Less than Godwin for the record.

Tee Higgins | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Tee Higgins contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

I've been following Spotrac's projections for a while and they are usually low on top tier free agents.

I do think it will be less than $30 mil. I'm guessing around $25 mil. per year.

 

[DzRams]

There are two main forks in the road this offseason: double down on Stafford or move him and rebuild.

If they double down on Stafford they'll need to roll the dice a bit on the OL to add the weapons he needs to make a run or maybe two before he retires. The dude has hard miles. I don't think he's gonna be playing to 40. And that comes with a lot of risk, but also a lot of potential reward.

If not then it's gonna be a couple offseasons of building because we gotta add the QB and probably the LT. I don't know that McVay is down for that. This is why as I looked over the roster and whatnot it feels like they'll go the weapons route.

As to cap space the ledger is looking better than it has for years. So is it that much a problem to load it up again for a couple attempts to win another ring? For myself I am good with either direction, as we have a recent title. No problem with them moving Stafford and rebuilding it right. I just suspect McVay is going to want to take another shot in 2025.

I think your analysis is spot on. I think they'll make big moves to go for it over the next year or two with Stafford. The key here is they have to be competitive for the remainder of the year even if they ultimately miss the playoffs.

They have to show their close and probably would have made the playoffs if not for the early injuries.

If they falter down the stretch, I can just as easily see a hard pivot where they sell Stafford and Kupp and rebuild.

McSnead is typically aggressive on whatever path they choose.

 

[OldSchool]

I've been following Spotrac's projections for a while and they are usually low on top tier free agents.

I do think it will be less than $30 mil. I'm guessing around $25 mil. per year.

And their contract estimate was 3 for $66 so it's not far off from your guess.