McVay learning and growing

[Ellard80]

Good point about the Niners strong run D. But I don't believe this small sample size in this one game is sufficient evidence that it's a good strategy. First, 3rd and 1 (or less) is different than 3rd and 2 or 3rd and 3. This game aside, I suspect there's a far higher probability of converting third and 1 by run than by pass. And if there's a back in the formation, a defense has to respect run first in that situation. But if it's empty backfield, it can focus solely on defending the pass -- a much easier proposition.

Harkening back to the week 18 game against the Niners, that 3rd and very short empty backfield set, IMO, resulted in a gift 3 points to the Niners and gave them momentum. I have zero problem passing in third and short. I just don't think it's a good strategy to tell the defense that that's what you're going to do.

Well bringing one more play from one other game doesn't really do much for sample sizes.

We are 15-28 54% when running the ball on 3rd and 1 Which is tied for 3rd highest in the league in attempts to run on 3rd and and 1

That 54% is dead last in the nfl - when we pas (10-12) we rank #4 in success rates.

2021 NFL Offensive Situational Success Rate, Ranked by Team

Ranking Situational Success Rates for every NFL Team offense during the 2021 season. Where success is at least 40% of yards-to-go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down & 100% on 3rd or 4th down.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Another reason why we may pass more on all 3rd downs.

Sports

The Washington Post Sports section provides sports news, video, scores, analysis and updates about high school, college, and pro sports teams, including the Capitals, Nationals, Redskins, United and Wizards. Post Sports also offers blogs and discussions about the latest sports news.

stats.washingtonpost.com

 

[JYB]

Well bringing one more play from one other game doesn't really do much for sample sizes.

We are 15-28 54% when running the ball on 3rd and 1 Which is tied for 3rd highest in the league in attempts to run on 3rd and and 1

That 54% is dead last in the nfl - when we pas (10-12) we rank #4 in success rates.

2021 NFL Offensive Situational Success Rate, Ranked by Team

Ranking Situational Success Rates for every NFL Team offense during the 2021 season. Where success is at least 40% of yards-to-go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down & 100% on 3rd or 4th down.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Another reason why we may pass more on all 3rd downs.

Sports

The Washington Post Sports section provides sports news, video, scores, analysis and updates about high school, college, and pro sports teams, including the Capitals, Nationals, Redskins, United and Wizards. Post Sports also offers blogs and discussions about the latest sports news.

stats.washingtonpost.com

Again, I have ZERO issue with passing on third and short. I have an issue TELLING THE DEFENSE that that's what I plan to do.

 

[Ellard80]

Again, I have ZERO issue with passing on third and short. I have an issue TELLING THE DEFENSE that that's what I plan to do.

yeah i get ya - Im just saying the concept of deception on 3rd and 1 doesnt seem to be making much difference.

going by the fact that we struggle to run on 3rd down and short,

The other teams know this and do not fear the run on 3rd and short.

 

[JYB]

yeah i get ya - Im just saying the concept of deception on 3rd and 1 doesnt seem to be making much difference.

going by the fact that we struggle to run on 3rd down and short,

The other teams know this and do not fear the run on 3rd and short.

Maybe that's true for teams like the 49ers and Titans, who have stout defensive lines. But I wouldn't put the Bengals in that category. In fact, I think the running game will be very key in this one. Particularly if they go to those 3 man rushes like they did in KC.

 

[Ellard80]

Maybe that's true for teams like the 49ers and Titans, who have stout defensive lines. But I wouldn't put the Bengals in that category. In fact, I think the running game will be very key in this one. Particularly if they go to those 3 man rushes like they did in KC.

yeah agreed i said in another thread - this will be our best chance in the playoffs to establish a running game.

 

[Kupped]

Maybe that's true for teams like the 49ers and Titans, who have stout defensive lines. But I wouldn't put the Bengals in that category. In fact, I think the running game will be very key in this one. Particularly if they go to those 3 man rushes like they did in KC.

The Bengals were just behind the Rams in run D this year.

 

[JYB]

The Bengals were just behind the Rams in run D this year.

I'd be curious to see how both teams compare in the second half of the season. Because I recall the Rams' run D being porous at times earlier in the season. By the end of the year, they had tightened it up quite a bit.