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http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angele...-letdown-why-teams-stumbled-after-rapid-rises
Lessons from a letdown: Why teams stumbled after rapid rises
With Ezekiel Elliott's status in flux all season and changes on the offensive line, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys slipped in 2017. Ronald Martinez/Getty Image
In recent years, teams that improved dramatically in 12 months usually stumbled immediately thereafter, the hope for sustainable success quickly tempered by the realities of a parity-driven league. From the start of 1990 to the end of 2016, 23 NFL teams increased their win total by seven or more games from the previous season. The following year, however, those 23 teams averaged 3.8 more losses, according to numbers compiled by ESPN's Bill Barnwell.
The Los Angeles Rams (11-5) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) each made seven-win improvements in 2017, and perhaps history can teach them something. Eleven of the 23 teams that previously experienced similar seven-plus-win improvements saw that win total decrease by four or more the following season. One of those teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers from 2003 to 2005, went from 6-10 to 15-1 to 11-5. But they won the Super Bowl in the final year of that stretch.
These other 10, however, were ripe for evaluation: 1990-92 Denver Broncos (5-11 to 12-4 to 8-8), 1991-93 Indianapolis Colts (1-15 to 9-7 to 4-12), 1997-99 Atlanta Falcons (7-9 to 14-2 to 5-11), 2000-02 Chicago Bears (5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12), 2005-07 Baltimore Ravens (6-10 to 13-3 to 5-11), 2007-09 Miami Dolphins (1-15 to 11-5 to 7-9), 2009-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13 to 10-6 to 4-12), 2011-13 Minnesota Vikings (3-13 to 10-6 to 5-10-1), 2014-16 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1 to 15-1 to 6-10) and the 2015-17 Dallas Cowboys (4-12 to 13-3 to 9-7).
the luckiest team ever. They finished 9-7 one season after going 1-15, but they were outscored 302-216 in the process. They sat 4-7, then won their last five games by an average of four points. Their Pythagorean wins that year: 5.0. It's no wonder they fell back down to Earth, to 4-12, the following season. Another team that sticks out here is that 2002 Bears squad that went from 5-11 to 13-3. They had six come-from-behind wins in the 2002 season, and two of them -- in back-to-back weeks -- were the result of Mike Brown interception returns for touchdowns in overtime. The Panthers went from 7-8-1 in 2014 to 15-1 in 2015 largely because they went 6-0 in games decided by one score. They went 2-6 in games decided by one score in 2016, and they fell to 6-10.
6. Intangibles: Sometimes teams are plagued by circumstances that numbers do not measure. Take the early 1990s Broncos, who began the decade by going from 5-11 to 12-4. They entered the 1992 season with great promise, but the rift between coach Dan Reeves and franchise quarterback John Elway continued to grow. Reeves fired one of Elway's biggest confidants at the time, Mike Shanahan, then drafted a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, rather than address a desperate need at wide receiver. The result? The 1992 Broncos fell to 8-8. The 2002 Bears played at a temporary facility while Soldier Field was being repaired, and that might have helped cause their slip. The Buccaneers went from 3-13 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But they sported the NFL's youngest roster, and they dropped right back to 4-12 in 2011. Some would say the 1999 Falcons and the 2016 Panthers suffered that proverbial Super Bowl hangover.
Gerald McCoy, who has been invited to each of the past six Pro Bowls, was limited to six games for the 2011 Bucs. And star running back Ezekiel Elliott was suspended six games for the 2017 Cowboys, who went from 13-3 to 9-7.
4. Offensive-line turnover: Nothing can throw an offense out of whack like instability along the offensive line, and most of the teams here were plagued by that issue. The 1992 Broncos had a different starter at three of five offensive-line spots. The 2002 Bears spent most of the season with a new left side. The 2007 Ravens worked with a different right side. The 2009 Dolphins replaced their center, Samson Satele. The Panthers' offensive line was in a flux throughout 2016, with left tackle Michael Oher limited to three games and center Ryan Kalil playing in only eight. The 2017 Cowboys were forced to replace their left guard, Ronald Leary, and their right tackle, Doug Free.
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3. Departures: In the offseason leading up to 2002, the Bears lost two key members of their secondary in Walt Harris and Tony Parrish. The same could be said for the 2009 Dolphins, who lost Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill. The 1999 Falcons lost their leading receiver, Tony Martin. The 2007 Ravens lost running back Jamal Lewis and linebacker Adalius Thomas. The 2011 Buccaneers lost running back Cadillac Williams and linebacker Barrett Ruud. The 2016 Panthers (cornerback Josh Norman) and the 2017 Cowboys (safety Barry Church) each lost valuable pieces in their secondary. They all hurt.
2. Instability at quarterback: This is almost always a killer, and at least seven of these teams suffered from it in one form or another. Elway missed four games for the 1992 Broncos, and his team lost every single one of them. Jim Miller was limited to eight starts for the 2002 Bears, and Steve McNair was limited to six starts for the 2007 Ravens. The 2009 Dolphins were forced to start second-year player Chad Henne for 13 games because Chad Pennington required a third surgery to his throwing shoulder. The 2013 Vikings featured a quarterback carousel that was caused by Christian Ponder missing nearly half the games. The 2011 Buccaneers and the 2016 Cowboys were done in largely by young quarterbacks who took a step back. Josh Freeman's interceptions increased from 6 to 22 in Tampa Bay, and Dak Prescott's passer rating dropped from 104.9 to 86.6 in Dallas.
1. Turnovers: "It's all about the ball." That's what Sean McVay has preached to his Rams players almost every single day since he became their head coach. Turnover margins usually spell the difference, and that is especially the case here. Each of the 10 teams that lost four or more games in the season that followed seven-plus-win improvements experienced a drop in turnover margin. Most were precipitous. The Broncos went from plus-8 in 1991 to minus-12 in 1992; the Falcons went from plus-20 in 1998 to minus-17 in 1999; the Bears went from plus-13 in 2001 to minus-7 in 2002; the Ravens went from plus-17 in 2006 to minus-17 in 2007; the Dolphins went from plus-17 in 2008 to minus-8 in 2009; the Buccaneers went from plus-11 in 2010 to minus-16 in 2011; the Panthers went from plus-20 in 2015 to minus-2 in 2016. You get the idea.
Lessons from a letdown: Why teams stumbled after rapid rises
With Ezekiel Elliott's status in flux all season and changes on the offensive line, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys slipped in 2017. Ronald Martinez/Getty Image
- Alden GonzalezESPN Staff Writer
In recent years, teams that improved dramatically in 12 months usually stumbled immediately thereafter, the hope for sustainable success quickly tempered by the realities of a parity-driven league. From the start of 1990 to the end of 2016, 23 NFL teams increased their win total by seven or more games from the previous season. The following year, however, those 23 teams averaged 3.8 more losses, according to numbers compiled by ESPN's Bill Barnwell.
The Los Angeles Rams (11-5) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) each made seven-win improvements in 2017, and perhaps history can teach them something. Eleven of the 23 teams that previously experienced similar seven-plus-win improvements saw that win total decrease by four or more the following season. One of those teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers from 2003 to 2005, went from 6-10 to 15-1 to 11-5. But they won the Super Bowl in the final year of that stretch.
These other 10, however, were ripe for evaluation: 1990-92 Denver Broncos (5-11 to 12-4 to 8-8), 1991-93 Indianapolis Colts (1-15 to 9-7 to 4-12), 1997-99 Atlanta Falcons (7-9 to 14-2 to 5-11), 2000-02 Chicago Bears (5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12), 2005-07 Baltimore Ravens (6-10 to 13-3 to 5-11), 2007-09 Miami Dolphins (1-15 to 11-5 to 7-9), 2009-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13 to 10-6 to 4-12), 2011-13 Minnesota Vikings (3-13 to 10-6 to 5-10-1), 2014-16 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1 to 15-1 to 6-10) and the 2015-17 Dallas Cowboys (4-12 to 13-3 to 9-7).
the luckiest team ever. They finished 9-7 one season after going 1-15, but they were outscored 302-216 in the process. They sat 4-7, then won their last five games by an average of four points. Their Pythagorean wins that year: 5.0. It's no wonder they fell back down to Earth, to 4-12, the following season. Another team that sticks out here is that 2002 Bears squad that went from 5-11 to 13-3. They had six come-from-behind wins in the 2002 season, and two of them -- in back-to-back weeks -- were the result of Mike Brown interception returns for touchdowns in overtime. The Panthers went from 7-8-1 in 2014 to 15-1 in 2015 largely because they went 6-0 in games decided by one score. They went 2-6 in games decided by one score in 2016, and they fell to 6-10.
6. Intangibles: Sometimes teams are plagued by circumstances that numbers do not measure. Take the early 1990s Broncos, who began the decade by going from 5-11 to 12-4. They entered the 1992 season with great promise, but the rift between coach Dan Reeves and franchise quarterback John Elway continued to grow. Reeves fired one of Elway's biggest confidants at the time, Mike Shanahan, then drafted a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, rather than address a desperate need at wide receiver. The result? The 1992 Broncos fell to 8-8. The 2002 Bears played at a temporary facility while Soldier Field was being repaired, and that might have helped cause their slip. The Buccaneers went from 3-13 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But they sported the NFL's youngest roster, and they dropped right back to 4-12 in 2011. Some would say the 1999 Falcons and the 2016 Panthers suffered that proverbial Super Bowl hangover.
Gerald McCoy, who has been invited to each of the past six Pro Bowls, was limited to six games for the 2011 Bucs. And star running back Ezekiel Elliott was suspended six games for the 2017 Cowboys, who went from 13-3 to 9-7.
4. Offensive-line turnover: Nothing can throw an offense out of whack like instability along the offensive line, and most of the teams here were plagued by that issue. The 1992 Broncos had a different starter at three of five offensive-line spots. The 2002 Bears spent most of the season with a new left side. The 2007 Ravens worked with a different right side. The 2009 Dolphins replaced their center, Samson Satele. The Panthers' offensive line was in a flux throughout 2016, with left tackle Michael Oher limited to three games and center Ryan Kalil playing in only eight. The 2017 Cowboys were forced to replace their left guard, Ronald Leary, and their right tackle, Doug Free.
Ranking top 50 potential free agents »
• Looming FA decisions for all 32 teams »
3. Departures: In the offseason leading up to 2002, the Bears lost two key members of their secondary in Walt Harris and Tony Parrish. The same could be said for the 2009 Dolphins, who lost Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill. The 1999 Falcons lost their leading receiver, Tony Martin. The 2007 Ravens lost running back Jamal Lewis and linebacker Adalius Thomas. The 2011 Buccaneers lost running back Cadillac Williams and linebacker Barrett Ruud. The 2016 Panthers (cornerback Josh Norman) and the 2017 Cowboys (safety Barry Church) each lost valuable pieces in their secondary. They all hurt.
2. Instability at quarterback: This is almost always a killer, and at least seven of these teams suffered from it in one form or another. Elway missed four games for the 1992 Broncos, and his team lost every single one of them. Jim Miller was limited to eight starts for the 2002 Bears, and Steve McNair was limited to six starts for the 2007 Ravens. The 2009 Dolphins were forced to start second-year player Chad Henne for 13 games because Chad Pennington required a third surgery to his throwing shoulder. The 2013 Vikings featured a quarterback carousel that was caused by Christian Ponder missing nearly half the games. The 2011 Buccaneers and the 2016 Cowboys were done in largely by young quarterbacks who took a step back. Josh Freeman's interceptions increased from 6 to 22 in Tampa Bay, and Dak Prescott's passer rating dropped from 104.9 to 86.6 in Dallas.
1. Turnovers: "It's all about the ball." That's what Sean McVay has preached to his Rams players almost every single day since he became their head coach. Turnover margins usually spell the difference, and that is especially the case here. Each of the 10 teams that lost four or more games in the season that followed seven-plus-win improvements experienced a drop in turnover margin. Most were precipitous. The Broncos went from plus-8 in 1991 to minus-12 in 1992; the Falcons went from plus-20 in 1998 to minus-17 in 1999; the Bears went from plus-13 in 2001 to minus-7 in 2002; the Ravens went from plus-17 in 2006 to minus-17 in 2007; the Dolphins went from plus-17 in 2008 to minus-8 in 2009; the Buccaneers went from plus-11 in 2010 to minus-16 in 2011; the Panthers went from plus-20 in 2015 to minus-2 in 2016. You get the idea.
