Jrry32 First Mock Off-Season of 2020 (1/5/20)

[Riverumbbq]

Brockers isn't a long-term contract.

I'd be surprised if the 29 year old Brockers would easily settle for a short-term 7mil. per year deal. Stranger things have happened, but this is likely his last big contract coming up. jmo.

 

[jrry32]

I'd be surprised if the 29 year old Brockers would easily settle for a short-term 7mil. per year deal. Stranger things have happened, but this is likely his last big contract coming up. jmo.

Simply put, if somebody offers more, he can go elsewhere. I don't know who is going to open up their bank account for Brockers. He's a good run stopper and an average pass rusher. If he goes elsewhere, we have plenty of options for a replacement in FA.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

You don't like Biadasz?

did you watch him in the bowl game? He looked like the weakest part of their Oline.

 

[jrry32]

did you watch him in the bowl game? He looked like the weakest part of their Oline.

Nope. I'll have to watch it.

 

[Loyal]

I am less impressed by Fowler than you jrry. Sure he did well this last year, but watch him fall off a cliff without an Aaron Donald giving him one-on-ones every game. Yes, I think we let him go.

If Middleton isn't that impressive, then why would he get a huge contract? You haven't said it, but if there are so many FA's with whom we could replace, then wouldn't the market even out and make it possible to do a deal?

Get rid of Woods? Holy crap.

 

[FrantikRam]

I am less impressed by Fowler than you jrry. Sure he did well this last year, but watch him fall off a cliff without an Aaron Donald giving him one-on-ones every game. Yes, I think we let him go.

If Middleton isn't that impressive, then why would he get a huge contract? You haven't said it, but if there are so many FA's with whom we could replace, then wouldn't the market even out and make it possible to do a deal?

Get rid of Woods? Holy crap.

This is a frustrating take many have made on Fowler - go back and watch our OLB - actually, go back and watch all of our EDGE defenders next to Donald for his entire career. Fowler's 11.5 sacks are the most any teammate of Aaron Donald has had for his entire career. Let's stop with these takes that make no sense. I'm fine letting him go because it'll be a lot of money, but the comments about watching him "fall off a cliff without Donald" seem to be disproved by the fact that he has the best production of any of Aaron Donald's teammates - for his entire career.

Why does any FA get a huge contract? Because some teams have too much money. A cursory glance at Spotrac (which will be close to accurate if not exact) shows that half the league - 16 teams - will have more than $50 million in cap space to spend. If you're a team like the Dolphins, Littleton is a perfect player to overpay for. Gets you veteran leadership, experience from a winning team, durability - and the Dolphins will have enough cap space in future years to pay him $16 million per year for four or five years.

Getting rid of one of our WRs is extremely logical. Our offense suffered this year despite having arguably the best WR/TE group in the NFL. Obviously the OL is more important, so if we need to sacrifice a WR to improve that, it makes sense.

 

[FrantikRam]

Which part are you no so sure about?

1. FACT: Fowler has the best production of any of Donald's NFL teammates - including Robert Quinn and Chris Long - this tells us he is not that easily replaceable

2. FACT: every year average NFL players get severely overpaid in Free Agency - a good comp for Littleton is a more durable Kwon Alexander - see how much the Niners paid him last season

3. FACT: our offense disappointed this season primarily because of the offensive line and QB - based on the last two years, the QB will be good if the offensive line is good - it follows then that the OL is more valuable to this offense than any single WR

 

[Riverumbbq]

Which part are you no so sure about?

1. FACT: Fowler has the best production of any of Donald's NFL teammates - including Robert Quinn and Chris Long - this tells us he is not that easily replaceable

2. FACT: every year average NFL players get severely overpaid in Free Agency - a good comp for Littleton is a more durable Kwon Alexander - see how much the Niners paid him last season

3. FACT: our offense disappointed this season primarily because of the offensive line and QB - based on the last two years, the QB will be good if the offensive line is good - it follows then that the OL is more valuable to this offense than any single WR

I'm not going to dispute that Fowler is a good player, he is. But I do look at where he builds his Sack & TFL stats, and often they are primarily against weaker teams. Combining the CAP he'll eat & how he achieves his stats is what has me believing that with our already deep OLB corp and the drafting of a quality 5TDE to replace Brockers, helping to relieve Donald from his constantly being beleaguered by triple teams, we might get the same or better results at a fraction of the cost, ... and we still get to keep Woods. jmo.

 

[FrantikRam]

I'm not going to dispute that Fowler is a good player, he is. But I do look at where he builds his Sack & TFL stats, and often they are primarily against weaker teams. Combining the CAP he'll eat & how he achieves his stats is what has me believing that with our already deep OLB corp and the drafting of a quality 5TDE to replace Brockers, helping to relieve Donald from his constantly being beleaguered by triple teams, we might get the same or better results at a fraction of the cost, ... and we still get to keep Woods. jmo.

But we've had other DE/OLB in the Aaron Donald era who also played against weaker teams and did not produce like him. Also I'm not sure where this narrative is really coming from - against the Seahawks and the Niners late in the year he combined for 4 sacks and 4 TFL. Those were, at the time the games were played - the two most important games of the season and against two of the best teams we played (two teams who are in the final 8). Again I'm fine with letting Fowler go because he'll be expensive, but this reasoning about him being easily replaceable is false based on what we've seen from other players around AD over the years.

Drafting a 5TDE to replace Brockers will relieve Donald from being triple teamed? You think a rookie DE from the midrounds of the draft is going to be better than Brockers? That's a pretty big stretch, and kind of an insult to Brockers.

 

[Riverumbbq]

But we've had other DE/OLB in the Aaron Donald era who also played against weaker teams and did not produce like him. Also I'm not sure where this narrative is really coming from - against the Seahawks and the Niners late in the year he combined for 4 sacks and 4 TFL. Those were, at the time the games were played - the two most important games of the season and against two of the best teams we played (two teams who are in the final 8). Again I'm fine with letting Fowler go because he'll be expensive, but this reasoning about him being easily replaceable is false based on what we've seen from other players around AD over the years.

Drafting a 5TDE to replace Brockers will relieve Donald from being triple teamed? You think a rookie DE from the midrounds of the draft is going to be better than Brockers? That's a pretty big stretch, and kind of an insult to Brockers.

What, we're not supposed to draft anymore to improve the team ?
And my mock has us taking a DE/OT with our first two picks, not somewhere in the mid-rounds, and at that time I wasn't looking at the TAG and Trade factor which could easily have us using two 2'nd. round draft picks at those positions.

If you want to go tit for tat on Fowlers stats, I can also point to no sacks in 9 of his games this season, including some very important ones against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Francisco, Pittsburgh & Baltimore, but that's not the point. I've already agreed that Fowler is a good player, likely still an ascending one at that, and having Donald next to him doesn't hurt, but there can be extenuating circumstances which may make him less difficult to part with.

As for Brockers, no, he isn't much of an edge or interior pass rushing threat, and doesn't take much pressure off of Donald. His stats are nearly a mirror of Fox', but he's a whole lot more expensive.
jmo.

 

[FrantikRam]

What, we're not supposed to draft anymore to improve the team ?
And my mock has us taking a DE/OT with our first two picks, not somewhere in the mid-rounds, and at that time I wasn't looking at the TAG and Trade factor which could easily have us using two 2'nd. round draft picks at those positions.

If you want to go tit for tat on Fowlers stats, I can also point to no sacks in 9 of his games this season, including some very important ones against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Francisco, Pittsburgh & Baltimore, but that's not the point. I've already agreed that Fowler is a good player, likely still an ascending one at that, and having Donald next to him doesn't hurt, but there can be extenuating circumstances which may make him less difficult to part with.

As for Brockers, no, he isn't much of an edge or interior pass rushing threat, and doesn't take much pressure off of Donald. His stats are nearly a mirror of Fox', but he's a whole lot more expensive.
jmo.

Of course you draft improve the team......for future years. Apologies about the term "midround" - to me that's all we have. The 52nd pick might not technically be in the middle of the draft, but it's extremely unlikely that we find a DE there who is already better than Brockers. His stats don't tell the whole story and as Donald himself has said, Brockers was paramount in the run game (where we finished top 10 in YPC allowed).

You can point to games without sacks for any player. Donald had several this year too. Fact remains that Fowler is the best pass rushes AD has had and people acting like he's easily replaceable are off base.

 

[8to12]

I am less impressed by Fowler than you jrry. Sure he did well this last year, but watch him fall off a cliff without an Aaron Donald giving him one-on-ones every game.

I'm curious, how does Donald get Fowler one-on-ones? Edge rushers are blocked by OT's, usually with no help ; it does not correlate to whether a DT is getting blocked by the LG or LG and OC.

 

[Loyal]

I'm curious, how does Donald get Fowler one-on-ones? Edge rushers are blocked by OT's, usually with no help ; it does not correlate to whether a DT is getting blocked by the LG or LG and OC.

Pulling guards who can't pull because Donald requires a double team almost every snap? Tight Ends, RB's who are used as back ups to block Donald if he gets by the Olineman in front of him? Meanwhile, Donald is STILL breaking up the play and the QB can't step into the pocket..You don't think any of these actions benefit Fowler?

 

[jrry32]

I am less impressed by Fowler than you jrry. Sure he did well this last year, but watch him fall off a cliff without an Aaron Donald giving him one-on-ones every game. Yes, I think we let him go.

If Middleton isn't that impressive, then why would he get a huge contract? You haven't said it, but if there are so many FA's with whom we could replace, then wouldn't the market even out and make it possible to do a deal?

Get rid of Woods? Holy crap.

C.J. Mosley is far from an elite LB. Look at what he got paid. Kwon Alexander is above average. Look what he got paid. Littleton is going to get paid far more than I think he's worth.

That's fine if you're less impressed with Fowler. But we still have Aaron Donald, and Fowler produced next to him. He also defended the run well. It won't be easy to replace him.

Yes, get rid of Woods. Higbee posted 43 receptions, 522 yards, and 2 TDs over the final 5 games. Kupp is a 1000+ yard 10+ TD WR. Cooks, before this year, consistently posted 1000+ yards per year. And then we have Reynolds, Everett, Gurley, and a WR from this draft (Cephus in this case) behind those guys. That's without Woods. We have a lot of depth at the position. We have a lot of mouths to feed. Having that cap space and those picks would help us in other areas. This is the best WR Draft in years. It's a smart time to make the move.

What, we're not supposed to draft anymore to improve the team ?
And my mock has us taking a DE/OT with our first two picks, not somewhere in the mid-rounds, and at that time I wasn't looking at the TAG and Trade factor which could easily have us using two 2'nd. round draft picks at those positions.

If you want to go tit for tat on Fowlers stats, I can also point to no sacks in 9 of his games this season, including some very important ones against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Francisco, Pittsburgh & Baltimore, but that's not the point. I've already agreed that Fowler is a good player, likely still an ascending one at that, and having Donald next to him doesn't hurt, but there can be extenuating circumstances which may make him less difficult to part with.

As for Brockers, no, he isn't much of an edge or interior pass rushing threat, and doesn't take much pressure off of Donald. His stats are nearly a mirror of Fox', but he's a whole lot more expensive.
jmo.

Counting on a rookie to replace Fowler's production doesn't seem like the soundest of plans. It might be what we're forced to do, but we'd have to get very lucky for a rookie to produce like that.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Counting on a rookie to replace Fowler's production doesn't seem like the soundest of plans. It might be what we're forced to do, but we'd have to get very lucky for a rookie to produce like that.

Depends on your immediate expectations.
Rookies replace veterans every season, it's the nature of the beast. Anyway, i'm on a two year plan and have serious doubts about the Rams competing for the Super Bowl in 2020. 2021 is my forecast year for the Big Show, so i'm keeping 2020 as more of a developmental year with new coaches and player turnover. By any measure, I don't consider this a rebuild, just a transitional phase while a younger team works out the kinks.
jmo.

 

[dieterbrock]

C.J. Mosley is far from an elite LB. Look at what he got paid.

*Shudders*
"C.J. Mosley signed a 5 year, $85,000,000 contract with the New York Jets, including a $7,500,000 signing bonus, $51,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $17,000,000. In 2019, Mosley will earn a base salary of $1,000,000, a signing bonus of $7,500,000 and a roster bonus of $10,500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $13,000,000 and a dead cap value of $43,000,000."
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/c.j.-mosley-14426

 

[FrantikRam]

Depends on your immediate expectations.
Rookies replace veterans every season, it's the nature of the beast. Anyway, i'm on a two year plan and have serious doubts about the Rams competing for the Super Bowl in 2020. 2021 is my forecast year for the Big Show, so i'm keeping 2020 as more of a developmental year with new coaches and player turnover. By any measure, I don't consider this a rebuild, just a transitional phase while a younger team works out the kinks.
jmo.

Teams probably only start a few rookies each year (intentionally at least) - this year the Rams started Rapp, Evans and Edwards - but none started in week 1 and all were started due to injuries. Very few rookies start outside of the first round and even fewer actually produce. The only rookie who has started right away for McVay is Cooper Kupp - it's same to assume that the 2020 Rams will have no rookie starters in week 1.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Teams probably only start a few rookies each year (intentionally at least) - this year the Rams started Rapp, Evans and Edwards - but none started in week 1 and all were started due to injuries. Very few rookies start outside of the first round and even fewer actually produce. The only rookie who has started right away for McVay is Cooper Kupp - it's same to assume that the 2020 Rams will have no rookie starters in week 1.

I don't particularly care what they've done in the past, 2020 creates a new set of challenges. We will have new coaches and new players. If the powers that be were willing to start near rookies Noteboom & Allen this past season, I would imagine starting a couple rookies who are drafted well ahead of where they were would be a considered thought at the table, at the very least in a rotational role.
The Rams are potentially losing three defensive starters and possibly trading Robey-Coleman as a CAP saving measure. Clay Matthews could also become a CAP Casualty. Two of those starters are along the DL, so unless the 2020 starters are made-up of SJD, Gaines, Smart, Fox or Copeland, either we re-sign the very expensive Brockers and/or what will be an even more expensive Fowler as a one year Franchise Tag rental, that or we use limited CAP availability on an outside free agent. Or there's the draft ...
McVay may just treat 2020 in a manner similar to 2017, spending for free agents while a new coaching staff pulls the team together, ... our draft class that year was also pretty decent.
If Snead/Demoff/McVay decide gambling with the future by restructuring a few contracts and pushing debt back is the way to go, we may be more active in extending some of our own or in outside free agency. As I've explained earlier, that's not the direction i'd prefer for this season. It's a transitional year and i'd rather reload with the draft, any CAP savings will roll over to 2021 at a time we'll wish to extend Ramsey, Kupp, JJ3 and possibly even Everett. I don't see the Rams in the 2020 Super Bowl whatever happens, so draft well, teach them, get them some experience and we'll take it back to the finishing line in 2021.
jmo.

 

[jrry32]

I don't particularly care what they've done in the past, 2020 creates a new set of challenges. We will have new coaches and new players. If the powers that be were willing to start near rookies Noteboom & Allen this past season, I would imagine starting a couple rookies who are drafted well ahead of where they were would be a considered thought at the table, at the very least in a rotational role.
The Rams are potentially losing three defensive starters and possibly trading Robey-Coleman as a CAP saving measure. Clay Matthews could also become a CAP Casualty. Two of those starters are along the DL, so unless the 2020 starters are made-up of SJD, Gaines, Smart, Fox or Copeland, either we re-sign the very expensive Brockers and/or what will be an even more expensive Fowler as a one year Franchise Tag rental, that or we use limited CAP availability on an outside free agent. Or there's the draft ...
McVay may just treat 2020 in a manner similar to 2017, spending for free agents while a new coaching staff pulls the team together, ... our draft class that year was also pretty decent.
If Snead/Demoff/McVay decide gambling with the future by restructuring a few contracts and pushing debt back is the way to go, we may be more active in extending some of our own or in outside free agency. As I've explained earlier, that's not the direction i'd prefer for this season. It's a transitional year and i'd rather reload with the draft, any CAP savings will roll over to 2021 at a time we'll wish to extend Ramsey, Kupp, JJ3 and possibly even Everett. I don't see the Rams in the 2020 Super Bowl whatever happens, so draft well, teach them, get them some experience and we'll take it back to the finishing line in 2021.
jmo.

One thing to keep in mind is that SJD and Gaines could both start on the DL. Yeah, we'd still need depth, but losing Brockers doesn't guarantee we have a new starter. I have a feeling that we're not going to go hog wild in FA.

 

[FrantikRam]

I don't particularly care what they've done in the past, 2020 creates a new set of challenges. We will have new coaches and new players. If the powers that be were willing to start near rookies Noteboom & Allen this past season, I would imagine starting a couple rookies who are drafted well ahead of where they were would be a considered thought at the table, at the very least in a rotational role.
The Rams are potentially losing three defensive starters and possibly trading Robey-Coleman as a CAP saving measure. Clay Matthews could also become a CAP Casualty. Two of those starters are along the DL, so unless the 2020 starters are made-up of SJD, Gaines, Smart, Fox or Copeland, either we re-sign the very expensive Brockers and/or what will be an even more expensive Fowler as a one year Franchise Tag rental, that or we use limited CAP availability on an outside free agent. Or there's the draft ...
McVay may just treat 2020 in a manner similar to 2017, spending for free agents while a new coaching staff pulls the team together, ... our draft class that year was also pretty decent.
If Snead/Demoff/McVay decide gambling with the future by restructuring a few contracts and pushing debt back is the way to go, we may be more active in extending some of our own or in outside free agency. As I've explained earlier, that's not the direction i'd prefer for this season. It's a transitional year and i'd rather reload with the draft, any CAP savings will roll over to 2021 at a time we'll wish to extend Ramsey, Kupp, JJ3 and possibly even Everett. I don't see the Rams in the 2020 Super Bowl whatever happens, so draft well, teach them, get them some experience and we'll take it back to the finishing line in 2021.
jmo.

That's all well and good, but McVay won't be giving up on 2020. I really doubt we have more than one rookie starting next season, and even that's no guarantee. Calling Boom and Allen "near rookies" is strange - the reason why they started is because McVay saw them everyday in practice and they had an entire season to absorb the offense.