Jrry32 Conservative Mock Off-Season

[jrry32]

I do not have the heartburn many other members have with Jameis so any chance to catch him in the first round would make even me forget about an OL'er.

I know that's hard to imagine but I would sure be speaking to Lovie & the Bucs about what he could entertain for us to move up 6 or 7 spots. Buc's need a QB, numerous OL'ers & DE. I am still hearing from alleged Tallahassee area close informed sources that MLB not NFL is still his first love.

Maybe that is...although I'm not sure I believe it. You don't go out there and compete the way he does if you don't love football.

 

[wrstdude]

I do not have the heartburn many other members have with Jameis so any chance to catch him in the first round would make even me forget about an OL'er.

I know that's hard to imagine but I would sure be speaking to Lovie & the Bucs about what he could entertain for us to move up 6 or 7 spots. Buc's need a QB, numerous OL'ers & DE. I am still hearing from alleged Tallahassee area close informed sources that MLB not NFL is still his first love.

As it should be really. Smart bet is always MLB all things being equal. More money to be made and a longer career.

 

[Athos]

As it should be really. Smart bet is always MLB all things being equal. More money to be made and a longer career.

More money, longer career, and significantly less injuries and chances to end up with early onset dementia or worse.

Hell, you can be an average relief pitcher and still make loads more than the average NFL player.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

As it should be really. Smart bet is always MLB all things being equal. More money to be made and a longer career.

Yeah but not too many college players go right to the Major Leagues and his first NFL contract would be more than his first MiLB contract. He would get a big signing bonus but he could spend 4+ years in the minors. Lots of highly touted prospects still take time to develop.

 

[wrstdude]

Yeah but not too many college players go right to the Major Leagues and his first NFL contract would be more than his first MiLB contract. He would get a big signing bonus but he could spend 4+ years in the minors. Lots of highly touted prospects still take time to develop.

That's true, which is why I tried to be careful by saying "all things being equal." If he's a high draft pick he could slot $6 million as a signing bonus, but won't reach arbitration till after his 3rd year. If he's any good by his 4th year the money will start rolling in. FA after year six & he can make crazy money.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

That's true, which is why I tried to be careful by saying "all things being equal." If he's a high draft pick he could slot $6 million as a signing bonus, but won't reach arbitration till after his 3rd year. If he's any good by his 4th year the money will start rolling in. FA after year six & he can make crazy money.

Or he could never get out of the minors.

 

[wrstdude]

Or he could never get out of the minors.

And he could get a concussion in his first preseason game & never play again. I'm not seeing the point of exploring every "what if." Lots of things could happen, but MLB is the safest route. One only needs to look at the average career length in both sports.

1. Recent studies have shown the average career length for the 4 major U.S. Sports: NFL- 3.5 years. NBA- 4.8 years. MLB- 5.6 years.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

And he could get a concussion in his first preseason game & never play again. I'm not seeing the point of exploring every "what if." Lots of things could happen, but MLB is the safest route. One only needs to look at the average career length in both sports.

1. Recent studies have shown the average career length for the 4 major U.S. Sports: NFL- 3.5 years. NBA- 4.8 years. MLB- 5.6 years.

Yes I agree but he has to get to Major league baseball first, he may linger in the minors for years with No guarantee of every getting to the show. If he enters the NFL draft he is instantly in the NFL.

 

[jrry32]

And he could get a concussion in his first preseason game & never play again. I'm not seeing the point of exploring every "what if." Lots of things could happen, but MLB is the safest route. One only needs to look at the average career length in both sports.

1. Recent studies have shown the average career length for the 4 major U.S. Sports: NFL- 3.5 years. NBA- 4.8 years. MLB- 5.6 years.

MLB is most definitely NOT the safest route. He's behind in development compared to the other guys and Winston is a QB that will go in the top 10.

From 1980 to 1999, there were 23 QBs selected in the top 10. The median QB was in the NFL for 12 years. The average QB played 9.9 years.

Yea, I think going top 10 in the draft at QB is a safe route. Especially considering Blaine Gabbert got $12 million FULLY GUARANTEED as the #10 pick in 2011.

So the average QB sees a second contract...maybe even a third...and Winston would make $12 million on his first contract.

Yep, I think the NFL is pretty darn safe route for him as a QB. Plus, I have a hard time believing baseball is his first love.

P.S. Is that the average career length for only MLB players or does it include minor league players? Because as Elm said, he might never make it out of the minors which means he never sees the big money.

 

[wrstdude]

Yes I agree but he has to get to Major league baseball first, he may linger in the minors for years with No guarantee of every getting to the show. If he enters the NFL draft he is instantly in the NFL.

Instantly in the NFL? Just because you're drafted automatically means you'll play? News to me.

I'm sure you're aware of the litany of players who "never made it." The list is longer than my...it's long.

 

[wrstdude]

MLB is most definitely NOT the safest route. He's behind in development compared to the other guys and Winston is a QB that will go in the top 10.

From 1980 to 1999, there were 23 QBs selected in the top 10. The median QB was in the NFL for 12 years. The average QB played 9.9 years.

Yea, I think going top 10 in the draft at QB is a safe route. Especially considering Blaine Gabbert got $12 million FULLY GUARANTEED as the #10 pick in 2011.

So the average QB sees a second contract...maybe even a third...and Winston would make $12 million on his first contract.

Yep, I think the NFL is pretty darn safe route for him as a QB. Plus, I have a hard time believing baseball is his first love.

P.S. Is that the average career length for only MLB players or does it include minor league players? Because as Elm said, he might never make it out of the minors which means he never sees the big money.

I feel like nobody is reading what I've said.

I stated before "all things being equal", in my original post, meaning he's as high of a MLB talent as he is NFL. I said that for a reason.

I'm not recommending this to him if he's Russel Wilson, who likely never sees a baseball field.

And nothing changes for the average MLB to NFL player-you're likely to play almost 2x as long in MLB as the NFL. My kid will be wearing a glove on his right hand by the time I clip the cord. lol

 

[jrry32]

I feel like nobody is reading what I've said.

I stated before "all things being equal", in my original post, meaning he's as high of a MLB talent as he is NFL. I said that for a reason.

I'm not recommending this to him if he's Russel Wilson, who likely never sees a baseball field.

And nothing changes for the average MLB to NFL player-you're likely to play almost 2x as long in MLB as the NFL. My kid will be wearing a glove on his right hand by the time I clip the cord. lol

Okay but being a top 10 pick is no guarantee you make it to the majors. In football, it is a guarantee. Especially as a QB. The odds are extremely high he'll have a long career...even if it's only as a backup.

We're not talking about the average player here. So I'd like to see it proven that a MLB top 10 pick at Winston's position has the same sort of average/median career length that a top 10 QB does.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Instantly in the NFL? Just because you're drafted automatically means you'll play? News to me.

I'm sure you're aware of the litany of players who "never made it." The list is longer than my...it's long.

Yep instantly. We are talking about a first round QB here. He would start by year two at the latest and have a top five first round contract. If that is news to you, then you need to follow the offseason a bit closer.

 

[wrstdude]

Yep instantly. We are talking about a first round QB here. He would start by year two at the latest and have a top five first round contract. If that is news to you, then you need to follow the offseason a bit closer.

Signed,

Jamarcus Russel (#1 overall)
Brady Quinn (#22 overall)
JP Losman (#22 overall)
Matt Leinart (#10 overall)
Christian Ponder (#12 overall)

Guess I'll start following a bit closer indeed.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Signed,

Jamarcus Russel (#1 overall)
Brady Quinn (#22 overall)
JP Losman (#22 overall)
Matt Leinart (#10 overall)
Christian Ponder (#12 overall)

Guess I'll start following a bit closer indeed.

Every one of them started and got a big First round contract. I guess you could argue that their first NFL contract might be nearly as much as their MLB signing bonus but other than that I don't understand your point.