in the midst of glory, one nagging doubt

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Bear watching.

http://explore.org/#!/live-cams/player/ ... ooks-falls

They must have amazing cholesterol levels.

 

[Anonymous]

History btw does not bear out the idea that someone with such a bad defensive 3rd down percentage improves a whole lot.

Let's do this. Why don't you just tell me what you want to hear, and I'll say that before I say what I'm saying.

It bears watching?

Okay. It bears watching.

It's 62%, and Fisher pointed to it; yes. He ALSO said, "but on the flip side of the coin, we're not doing the things we would do during the regular season to try and get off the field on third down, because those are the things you kind of hold back (in preseason)" [LINK]. And that's all anyone is saying in response to this anomaly. And yes, it is an anomaly. As I showed you, the first game of preseason last year, the Packers got waxed by the Browns on third down conversions to the tune of 61%. Then they were right around the league norm for the rest of the preseason. Again, if you had looked at *only* the first two games of preseason for the last decade, it would probably be more disparaging than the 4 game sample you're using now. Starters play for one quarter in the first game (if even) and most don't game plan at all.

It bears watching, but I'm not 'expecting' it to be an issue.

Yes, but again, first that one comment from Fisher, if I recall, was about goalline defense. That's not all of 3rd down obviously. And second, most teams are in that position, or a lot have been over 10 years--where they don't use everything in the preseason. So if that were a direct cause, then we should have seen a lot of defenses cross the 50% line, but we haven't.

In terms of looking at the first 2 games what you would find is an interesting issue that bears watching.

Some issues don't bear watching ("why did Bradford throw it to Amendola's crotch!") Some do bear watching. In fact, both Softli and Venturi mentioned it separately on 101 today. They were lowkey but they brought it up.

But in terms of "it bears watching"...that was my first post!

I looked at the numbers, no one I saw was ever as bad as 62% in the preseason. I mean. As far back as I looked, no one was that bad,

This one, in short, bears watching.

And it can't stay that bad. That's record setting bad. Will it? Bears watching.........

Anyway. When someone says "the coach expressed something about this issue, and that's an unusual number, and it bears watching"--I'm not sure how much defcon 1 level counter-arguing that should set off. It could be "maybe, dunno" or "yeah if it stays like that particular thing, that's an issue" or "wake me after game 4"--but, anything beyond that?

I mean it's not like I said I woulda drafted Suh instead or anything. :mrgreen:

So, let me get this straight.

It bears watching?

I dunno.

And there's no defcon 1 counter-arguing going on. I mean, if you didn't want others to see it differently than you, then maybe preface it with "This bears watching and I'll accept no substitute for watching. You may not glance, you may not peek, and you may not casually observe. You must watch it like a bear watches salmon. Because it bears watching."

Salmon.

And no, Fisher wasn't referring to goal-line defense. It was the sentence that immediately followed his pointing out of the 3rd down efficiency (or lack thereof). Same breath and everything. And again, in two preseason games you're going to find bad stats. Let's see what happens after four regular season games. Until then, IMO, it is what it is. In 2011, after preseason, the Rams were ranked #1 in third down conversions. Dead last at the end of the regular season. By a lot. Also in 2011, the Chiefs (during the first two games of preseason) had a 19% 3rd down conversion rate on offense. HISTORICALLY bad. Things get worse, things improve, things stay lateral. But, I'll go ahead and watch it like a bear anyway.

I expect others to see it differently, without a lot of intensity to it...and that has happened too. What extra intensity I did see caught me off guard. No big.

Anyway you're right on the quotation--I looked it back up. But then Fisher's wrong on his logic:

as far as the game is concerned, there’s always some really good things and there’s some things you need to improve upon. We’re kind of caught between a rock and a hard place because if I was to look at one area that we really need to improve upon, it’s third down efficiency. We’ve got to get better on offense and got to get significantly better on defense. We’re allowing over 61 percent conversion rates on defense which will do you no good during the regular season. But the issue, the other side of the coin is that we’re also not doing the things that we would do during the regular season to try to get off the field on third down because those are the things that you kind of hold back

.

Every team holds back on defense in the preseason. Yet not every team has the same issues. So, that's a little coach speak there.

In terms of 3rd down conversion percentages, in fact, the Rams stand alone where they're at. So far after 2 games, it breaks down like this:

* 7 teams are in the 20s (20%-29%)

* 18 teams are in the 30s

* 8 teams are in the 40s

* 1 team is in the 50s

* 1 team is in the 60s

Anyway I looked back at the numbers to be extra fair about this, and in fact, I'm wrong about one thing--teams that are low in the preseason can bounce back and be much, much higher in the regular season. Or 3 did, 2 didn't. So to be sure on this I checked preseason v. regular season, and, yes a team ranked in the bottom 5 in preseason can end up in the top 15 in the regular season.

Will the Rams be a bounce-back team?

Bears watching....

 

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[Anonymous]

That's a BEAR watching.

Bears is plural.

If a football team can't tell tell singular from plural by now, what is to become of them?

 

[MTRamsFan]

We have upgraded at every group in the defense, talent wise, except one. We are the youngest team in the league. We have two or three new starters in the secondary. Two new starters on the interior line, and two new starters at linebacker. Playing a new defensive scheme. No defensive coordinator. A young kid (Blake) making the defensive calls, for his first time. With only two PRESEASON games under our belt. I am not concerned. They just need a little time to jell.

+1

We have two more preseason games to get things figured out before the games start to count. I trust Fisher and Staff will get these issues corrected.

 

[JdashSTL]

Does this ranking stay the same even when you factor in Arizona and New Orleans playing an extra game? Just curious lol.

 

[Anonymous]

Does this ranking stay the same even when you factor in Arizona and New Orleans playing an extra game? Just curious lol.

There's no ranking.

Just pointed out that the 60s is pretty low, even for 2 games. That remains true.

But then I double-checked myself, and you can see that team's ranked low in this in the pre-season sometimes bounced back in the regular season to top 15 or even top 10.

You know what's bad on defensive 3rd down conversions? 40% or more.

What's good is around 30% (give or take) or less.

That means to be good they would have to cut it in half.

And, what I found comparing preseason and regular season numbers is that, yeah, teams can do that. Not all teams but teams can do that.

I'm not a "100% blind faith in the coaches" kinda guy. I like Fisher and I like everything they've done so far, but he hasn't had 16 consecutive top-ranked defenses, and I tend toward being a realist. In 2010, his last year with the Titans, they were ranked 29th in this.

So I would like to see them improve this by a lot in 2012 and actually get good at it. This is, to me, one of the most crucial defensive stats.

But...while they could be top half of the league in this in 2012, they might not be. I am going to pay attention to it. The realist motto is cheer like an idiot on Sunday and analyze like an engineer on Monday. Which btw takes all the fun out of Monday night games.

The opposite of the realist poster is the stereotyped PD negative poster. Their motto is cheer like an engineer on Sunday and analyze like an idiot on Monday.

My apologies to any cheerleader-engineers reading this. :mrgreen:

 

[DR RAM]

Does this ranking stay the same even when you factor in Arizona and New Orleans playing an extra game? Just curious lol.

There's no ranking.

Just pointed out that the 60s is pretty low, even for 2 games. That remains true.

But then I double-checked myself, and you can see that team's ranked low in this in the pre-season sometimes bounced back in the regular season to top 15 or even top 10.

You know what's bad on defensive 3rd down conversions? 40% or more.

What's good is around 30% (give or take) or less.

That means to be good they would have to cut it in half.

And, what I found comparing preseason and regular season numbers is that, yeah, teams can do that. Not all teams but teams can do that.

I'm not a "100% blind faith in the coaches" kinda guy. I like Fisher and I like everything they've done so far, but he hasn't had 16 consecutive top-ranked defenses, and I tend toward being a realist. In 2010, his last year with the Titans, they were ranked 29th in this.

So I would like to see them improve this by a lot in 2012 and actually get good at it. This is, to me, one of the most crucial defensive stats.

But...while they could be top half of the league in this in 2012, they might not be. I am going to pay attention to it. The realist motto is cheer like an idiot on Sunday and analyze like an engineer on Monday. Which btw takes all the fun out of Monday night games.

The opposite of the realist poster is the stereotyped PD negative poster. Their motto is cheer like an engineer on Sunday and analyze like an idiot on Monday.

My apologies to any cheerleader-engineers reading this. :mrgreen:

I think that was a joke. Get it?

 

[Ramhusker]

Let's start a poll. What's the % going to be after game 3? game 4?

I say it's 51% after game 3

I say it's 46% after game 4

46% may be a good number if Fisher is indeed sandbagging a lot. It may bear watching. :sly:

 

[Anonymous]

Let's start a poll. What's the % going to be after game 3? game 4?

I say it's 51% after game 3

I say it's 46% after game 4

46% may be a good number if Fisher is indeed sandbagging a lot. It may bear watching. :sly:

46% in the regular season would be a candidate for worst in the league.

To be in the top 15 or so during the regular season they need to be in the 30s.

 

[Iron Lion]

I mean it's not like I said I woulda drafted Suh instead or anything. :mrgreen:

Really? :ww:


zn, with regards to this article you're posting... now this almost might sound like a dumb question, having gone over 5 pages of responses and not seeing anyone address this, but are you sure that those numbers dredged up back to 2000 are preseason numbers? I saw no indication in the section of the article that you posted that preseason numbers were being talked about... it looked to me like the author was trying to give a 10+year sample size of what the norm should be for the regular season, and then establishing that the Rams aren't there yet thus far in the preseason.

And as a follow up... preseason games are not about how well the team does, it's about the individuals. On the practice field, there is virtually no scheme involved because the coaches are evaluating the players individually. A preseason game is essentially a glorified scrimmage, and it is for evaluating individuals. If the Rams lack depth at safety or something, then it could be a couple individuals accounting for this lack of success on 3rd down.

Also don't take that "glorified scrimmage" the wrong way. Practice is to be taken seriously, as are preseason games, and if I was an NFL player I would cherish every opportunity I got on the field. That's why players like CJ.5K and his "preseason lol" comments piss me off. OK sorry for the rant I'm done.

 

[Anonymous]

I mean it's not like I said I woulda drafted Suh instead or anything. :mrgreen:

Really? :ww:


zn, with regards to this article you're posting... now this almost might sound like a dumb question, having gone over 5 pages of responses and not seeing anyone address this, but are you sure that those numbers dredged up back to 2000 are preseason numbers? I saw no indication in the section of the article that you posted that preseason numbers were being talked about... it looked to me like the author was trying to give a 10+year sample size of what the norm should be for the regular season, and then establishing that the Rams aren't there yet thus far in the preseason.

And as a follow up... preseason games are not about how well the team does, it's about the individuals. On the practice field, there is virtually no scheme involved because the coaches are evaluating the players individually. A preseason game is essentially a glorified scrimmage, and it is for evaluating individuals. If the Rams lack depth at safety or something, then it could be a couple individuals accounting for this lack of success on 3rd down.

Also don't take that "glorified scrimmage" the wrong way. Practice is to be taken seriously, as are preseason games, and if I was an NFL player I would cherish every opportunity I got on the field. That's why players like CJ.5K and his "preseason lol" comments piss me off. OK sorry for the rant I'm done.

I addressed that. I kept using the regular season numbers as a criteria, meaning "this is how good they have to be in the regular season can they get there," but then it finally dawned on me to see if teams improve from the preseason to the regular season. And that's when I deliberately altered what I was saying. A team CAN be bad at this is in the preseason and then improve in the regular season, sometimes dramatically. So my new take on this, going back a couple of pages, is that yeah Fisher is nagged by this but it IS improvable. The next question is how much they DO improve, in the regular season.

Yes people tried this whole thread to argue that preseason is not the same...the problem is, that;s true of every single team in the league, and yet some teams ARE better at this right now. So that argument just doesn't do much for me. All teams face the same conditions and most hold things back but not all of them are doing things like giving up close to 75% conversions to teams like the Colts.

That's of course mitigated by the fact that yeah in terms of this stat, teams can and do improve from the preseason to the regular season. Not all do. But many do. So the issue now is, do they improve in the regular season, and if so how good do they get? To me that's a different issue and not everyone in the thread has caught up with that yet.

With a young offense, a defensive 3rd down conversion percentage is a crucial stat. That contributes to keeping the score down and giving the offense the ball back, which in turn contributes to the offense not having to play from behind. That's important for a young offense and was one of the reasons the Rams unexpectedly won 7 games in 2010. The 2010 defense was 2nd in the league on 3rd down.

 

[Thordaddy]

Well far be it of ME to cast a positive light on a "def-con" "steal cage" thread but if we come up with 4 turnovers a game,I'll take that number and just work on it.

 

[Ramhusker]

Let me promise everybody this, "The Rams D will not have the worst 3rd down % in the league". They just won't. They have too much talent and too good of coaches for this to be remotely possible.

Sometimes stats just don't mean shit. It's just the way statistics play out sometimes. The best actuaries in the world know it happens from time to time.

 

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[Anonymous]

Let me promise everybody this, "The Rams D will not have the worst 3rd down % in the league". They just won't. They have too much talent and too good of coaches for this to be remotely possible.

Sometimes stats just don't mean shyte. It's just the way statistics play out sometimes. The best actuaries in the world know it happens from time to time.

I don't know about promises. Fisher's Titans were 29th on defensive 3rd down percentage in 2010.

And stats do mean something or you wouldn't have just promised they would be ranked higher. That may be a vague and overgeneral stat but it's a stat.

I'm the type who wants to actually see them do it. If they do, that's good. If not, they will have to work on it for the next season. Either way, it reminds me of the old "bradford shouldn't have any problems with the new system" threads from a year
ago.

So, yeah. I like seeing it in the real. Just a thing.

 

[DR RAM]

The Ravens have the worst rated defense in the NFL preseason so far.

 

[Anonymous]

The Ravens have the worst rated defense in the NFL preseason so far.

They do. And it's not the first time I might add that they've been down stats-wise in the preseason on defense and then bounced back during the real season. They're one of the teams that does recover. So if the Rams do also, we can say they're like the Ravens in that regard.

 

[Iron Lion]

The Ravens have the worst rated defense in the NFL preseason so far.

Calvin Johnson's fault. :ww:

 

[Anonymous]

The Ravens have the worst rated defense in the NFL preseason so far.

They do. And it's not the first time I might add that they've been down stats-wise in the preseason on defense and then bounced back during the real season. They're one of the teams that does recover. So if the Rams do also, we can say they're like the Ravens in that regard.

Or rather....the Ravens have recovered from poor preseasons on defense BEFORE. No guarantee they will this time.

If the Rams do and the Ravens don't, then, we can say they are like the Ravens used to be. And it's just one thing I am looking at, too. Getting better at allowing conversions on third and long. So they don't actually have to be as good overall as the Ravens used to be (and might still be) overall.