After Hamlin's injury, I'm even more convinced 2023 will be Stafford's last season. You have to know that the effect that Hamlin has had on Kelly is immense. It brought home to both Kelley and Matt how dangerous the NFL really is. Matt dodged a bullet he has to know that. I would be shocked if Matt decides he wants to continue beyond 2023.
That said, the decision is ultimately with Snead and McVay, not Stafford. Contractually they must play him this year. But from 2004 onwards they can eat the dead cap in the same way they did with Gurley and Goff. They have the likely successor to Stafford on the roster right now in Mayfield. They can't afford to let him leave the building. IMO they won't. If they offer Baker a deal to stay with a promise that he's the starter in 2024 there is no way he leaves.
I think we know if the Rams sign Baker to a 2 or 3 year deal. The first year as a backup and the remaining year or years on a prove it level.
I love Stafford but the reality is that his time here in LA was always limited. Unless he was uninjured and winning Super Bowls I think he would have been replaced after 2025 anyway. That is reflected in his contract structure which he agreed to. This way the Rams will follow their pattern of being proactive as it was with Gurley, Goff and even this year with Akers.
So IMO we as fans need to get used to Baker as the QB of the future. I for one am don't think this could have worked out better. Mayfield didn't cost the Rams anything, he literally fell in their laps. Then add to the equation that McVay seems to love him as his QB is the decisive element. Baker has proved he can win with backup WRs and OL what more can you ask?
The best part of this scenario is that Baker Mayfield will insure that McVay stays with the Rams for several more years.