If we draft a WR early, it should be...

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jrry32

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Assuming that Calvin Ridley is off the board, my choice is . . . (building suspense again)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bff_t4Fzv_g

I made this exact thread last year and chose Cooper Kupp as my guy. This year, my guy is Anthony Miller. Why? Well, like last year, I'll highlight three things: 1) Production/Intangibles, 2) Physical Talent, and 3) Technical Skill.
Production/Intangibles
Anthony Miller's stats over the past three years:
2017: 96 receptions for 1462 receiving yards, 15.2 yards per catch, and 18 receiving TDs
2016: 95 receptions for 1434 receiving yards, 15.1 yards per catch, and 14 receiving TDs
2015: 47 receptions for 694 receiving yards, 14.8 yards per catch, and 5 receiving TDs

Anthony Miller is one of two Memphis WRs in its history to post a 1000+ yard receiving season. The other WR is Isaac Bruce. Miller actually turned down scholarships to FCS schools to bet on himself and walked onto the Memphis football team. He worked his arse off, earned a scholarship, and became their most prolific WR of all time. Miller walks around with a chip on his shoulder, competes on every play like its his last down of football, and has supreme confidence in his abilities. He's known around Memphis for being a guy who leads by example in the locker-room, the film room, the weight room, and on the field. Miller has exactly the sort of mindset that you want your #1 WR to have. He knows how good he is, but he always wants to be better.

Physical Talent
Miller was unable to participate at the Combine beyond the bench press due to an ankle injury. His Pro Day is next week, but I'm not that concerned with the results. At 5'11" 201 pounds, Miller is a well-built WR who posted 22 bench press reps at the Combine. Miller has 10 inch hands, which are massive for a guy his size, and it shows in his game. Miller is a twitchy athlete with quick feet, easy acceleration, and great change of direction skills. While he isn't a 4.3 40 type burner, Miller plays fast and has showed the ability to climb over the top of the defense with consistency. Miller's play strength matches up to his weight-room strength and allows him to bully smaller players. One of Miller's best traits is his body control; it's truly tremendous. He makes difficult catches look effortless, he is a master of the sideline catch, and he seems to glide while in the air. Miller is also a deadly run after the catch WR due to his combination of strength and quickness. He's elusive enough to make defenders miss in space, but also strong and physical enough to power through tackles. He has great balance and is very slippery with the ball in his hands.

Technical Skill
It's very easy to tell that Anthony Miller works hard on his game. There are nuances in his route running that not many college players possess. Miller is an unorthodox route runner who uses his quick-twitch athleticism to the max. He utilizes a lot of head and body fakes, stutter steps, and leverage to keep defenders guessing. Miller displays the understanding of how to leverage his routes to create separation at the break-point. Miller is also an explosive cutter with the ability to create separation on just about any route at any level. He works aggressively back to his QB when coming out of his breaks, and he uses his body and positioning to shield out DBs. Miller has good recognition when playing against zone coverage to find the hole and sit down. While Miller is good against zone coverage, he's truly phenomenal against man coverage. His explosive cutting ability, unorthodox route running, and understanding of how to attack defenders makes him a nightmare for DBs. His quickness, strength, and strength make him very difficult to press at the LOS. He's going to be a very frustrating player for NFL CBs to try and press.

In addition to his route running, Miller has phenomenal hands. He's a step below the true elites like Fitz or Alshon, but Miller can win in the air, make highlight-reel catches, and snatches the ball with ease. He's a very natural catcher of the football with big, soft hands. Miller shows near perfect technique when it comes to snatching the football or bodying it when in traffic. Miller will finish catches through contact, but he does seem to be aware at times when there's a DB lurking and looks to protect himself. Miller also has shown the ability to win 50/50 balls and contested catches with some consistency. However, Miller drops some passes he shouldn't when he looks to run after the catch before securing the ball.

I hate to say it, but the WR who comes to mind for me when watching Miller is Antonio Brown. However, it's not really fair to expect anyone to be that level of great. In the past, I said I thought his game reminded me of Golden Taint, but after some more thought on the matter, I think Greg Jennings is a great comparison for Anthony Miller. Miller is a guy who will separate with consistency at the NFL level due to his good all-around athleticism and great route running. Miller will make some amazing catches, but also drop a few passes he shouldn't. He'll run well after the catch when given the opportunity. Some will say that Miller is a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type player, but I think he has the ability to be a master-level route runner. That's just about the best skill for a WR to have.

Here are a few gifs that demonstrate the type of player that Miller is:
giphy.gif

Yes, this is real.
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Making an amazing catch look easy.
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Leverages the route towards the inside hip of the defender to give his QB more space for the throw to the corner, throws a little fake right before breaking to freeze the defender, subtle push-off to create separation right before the catch, and then those steel-trap hands squeeze the ball despite a great recovery by the CB.
giphy.gif

Same route, same result. He freezes the CB again with a fake right before the break.
giphy.gif

Miller wins on a deep post route here. It's hard to tell, but there's a subtle sell right before he breaks that causes the DB to be late to react. Watch his shoulders and eyes right before he plants. He sells it like he is running a go right up and until he changes directions.
giphy.gif

Great sell on the double move here, and yes, he did catch it.
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He makes a great grab look easy, and then you see the run after catch skills.
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This is how you turn a bad play into a first down.
giphy.gif

Mike Hughes is a tremendous press-man CB. Before we made our trades, he was one of the guys I was targeting at #23. Look at the footwork and hand usage on the release to stymie Hughes' press attempt. Then, we see the subtle push-off right before the contested catch.
giphy.gif

Watch the fake right before he breaks. He fakes the post and gets the CB moving in the wrong direction. Then, he finishes the play with a great catch.

@StealYoGurley I didn't want to hijack your thread to a greater extent. :D
 

PressureD41

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I keep thinking of the old Charger A. Miller WR... Just sayin'
 

Riverumbbq

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Not sure what the pundits' concerns are for Miller, other than his Jones foot injury which kept him out of the Senior Bowl game and the Combine, he's been hovering around the 3'rd round in most of the major mocks for a good portion of the later season & the off-season. Someone may end up with a top prospect without paying the cost of a high draft pick. Does he have an established 40 time yet ?
 

CGI_Ram

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I find myself nervous about our WR unit. I love Woods and Kupp as starters, but I’m struggling to bank on the projection of Reynolds and Thomas to step up.

Additionally, while Woods and Kupp are very good... imagine this unit without one of them if they had to miss time to injury?

It feels like we are light.

The Rams trade and effort to resign Watkins, plus kicking the tires on OBJ, tells me the Rams might agree.

Any early prospects excite you if they are available at 23... and warrant taking with the pick?

(I believe the Rams will try to trade down, if they hold the pick... unless someone is there of surprise).

Once we get past 23, we need a Kupp-like find in order to expect any contribution in 2018. That seems like a tall ask.

Goff took a huge step forward last year, but he’s still developing. I cringe the thought of hampering his progress by going in without enough help on the outside.

————

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/i...-prospects-football-outsiders-playmaker-score

Projecting the top wide receivers in the 2018 NFL draft

Not every year produces multiple high-quality wide receivers at the top of the NFL draft. The 2014 draft brought us superstars Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans, along with 1,000-yard receivers such as Allen Robinson, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks. Far more common are drafts such as the 2013 class, which included only one superstar in the first round (DeAndre Hopkins), a midround steal (Keenan Allen) and a small collection of busts.

This year's draft is far more likely to follow the pattern of the 2013 class than the 2014 one. Football Outsiders' system for projecting wide receivers, Playmaker Score, is highly uncertain about the highly rated pass-catchers available in this year's draft. Although one or more of these players could turn out to be quality wide receivers, Playmaker suggests that teams should skip the highly rated pass-catchers and go bargain-hunting in the later rounds.

Playmaker Score's primary output projects the average number of regular-season receiving yards that a wide receiver will gain per season during his first five NFL seasons. For more on how Playmaker Score is calculated, click here for the methodology.

Here's a look at how Playmaker Score judges some of this year's top prospects.

Note: Players are listed in order of their projected average receiving yardage.

D.J. Moore, Maryland Terrapins: 566 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 34 overall
Similar historical prospects: Allen Robinson, Andre Johnson

Of the three wide receivers Scouts Inc. believes are likely to go in the first round, Playmaker likes Moore the best. Moore might appear to have only average receiving numbers for a top prospect (80 catches, 1,033 yards, eight touchdowns), but those numbers are quite impressive when put in the context of how little the Terrapins threw the ball. Maryland attempted only 318 passes during Moore's junior year. Moore also was used (effectively) in the running game, gaining 61 yards on five carries.

That said, Moore is not quite an elite prospect like Beckham or Amari Cooper. Playmaker gives him the edge over top-rated prospect Calvin Ridley, despite a significant adjustment for Ridley's projected draft position.

Calvin Ridley, Alabama Crimson Tide: 525 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 18 overall
Similar historical prospects: Earl Bennett, Mohamed Sanu

Ridley is a decent prospect, but Playmaker believes that he is way overrated as the top wide receiver prospect in this draft. Put simply, Ridley does not have top-tier production, even after adjusting for Alabama's relatively run-heavy offense. Ridley's touchdowns were particularly weak for a potential first-round draft pick. As a junior, Ridley had only five touchdowns in 332 team pass attempts, while Moore had eight touchdowns in only 318 team pass attempts.

Nor is it likely that there are any other team-related factors holding Ridley's projection back. Playmaker did miss somewhat on a former wide receiving prospect from Alabama -- Julio Jones -- but Ridley is a far cry from Jones. Jones was a physical freak who ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at 220 pounds. By contrast, Ridley ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds and weighs in at only 189 pounds. Moreover, Ridley had a poor vertical leap (31 inches), which historically has been the workout metric that is most predictive of success for wide receivers (though even the correlation between vertical leap and success is relatively weak). Without outstanding production or workout numbers, it is a little puzzling that Ridley is so highly regarded.

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M Aggies: 485 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 31 overall
Similar historical prospects: Dennis Northcutt, Roscoe Parrish

Playmaker thinks that Kirk is a good prospect who is overrated as a potential first-round pick. Like Ridley, Kirk simply lacks the top-tier production that typically comes with a player of his projected draft status. Kirk averaged just over 2.0 receiving yards per team attempt in his best season, and his touchdown rate was average. Kirk's best statistic is by far his peak rushing attempts per game, averaging just under one rushing attempt per game. The fact that the coaches at Texas A&M saw fit to get the ball in Kirk's hands in space on multiple occasions suggests some potential for success, but overall, Playmaker is lukewarm on his prospects, given the relatively early pick that will likely be needed to get him.

Courtland Sutton, SMU Mustangs: 472 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 47 overall
Similar historical prospects: Sammy Watkins, Brandon Lloyd

Playmaker and conventional wisdom are pretty much in agreement about Sutton, and Playmaker thinks he is appropriately rated as a second-round pick. Sutton has similar numbers to Ridley with one important exception: Sutton was much more prolific in terms of touchdowns. As a junior, Sutton scored a touchdown on approximately 2.5 percent of SMU's pass attempts. That touchdown rate is solid, if not otherworldly (Larry Fitzgerald, for example, scored a touchdown on more than 5.0 percent of his team's pass attempts as a sophomore). Sutton could be a good match for a team looking for a large body (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) to catch passes over the middle.

Anthony Miller, Memphis Tigers: 394 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 76 overall
Similar historical prospects:Kendall Wright, Kevin Johnson

Miller has the top-tier production that most of this year's top receiver prospects lack. Playmaker, however, has one significant concern about Miller's prospects: He enters the draft as a senior. The ranks of highly drafted senior wide receivers include some successful players but are also littered with busts such as Peter Warrick, Troy Edwards and Travis Taylor. Most wide receiver prospects will eagerly seize the opportunity to enter the NFL as soon as possible. If a wide receiver prospect has to wait until he is a senior before his NFL prospects are viable, that is often a major red flag.

That said, Miller was quite good as a junior, which makes it hard to dismiss his prospects out of hand. A smart front office would scrutinize why Miller stayed at Memphis for a senior year.

Two prospects similar to Miller whose projections are low enough that they fail to make this list are Oklahoma State's James Washington (projected at 366 yards per season) and LSU's D.J. Chark (projected at 362 yards per season). Like Miller, Washington and Chark enter the draft as seniors. Miller, however, had a higher peak touchdown-per-team-attempt rate than both Washington and Chark. Chark, in particular, scored on just over 1 percent of his team's pass attempts, the worst rate of all of the wide receiver prospects that Scouts Inc. projects in the first four rounds.

Although neither Washington nor Chark is a hopeless case, Playmaker thinks that both of those players are overrated at their current projected value, somewhere in the second round. Even after accounting for Washington and Chark's higher projected draft position, Playmaker believes that Miller is the most likely to be successful in the NFL -- and at a much lower price.

Jordan Lasley, UCLA Bruins: 389 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 57 overall
Similar historical prospects: Donte Moncrief, Bruce Ellington

Lasley is another member of the parade of mediocre prospects who populate the top end of this year's draft. He's heavier than Ridley but similar in most other respects. Lasley has the same touchdown rate as Ridley. Ridley has more yards per team attempt than Lasley, but Lasley was more explosive on a per-catch basis. Playmaker would actually rate Lasley as a slightly better prospect than Ridley, if not for Ridley's large edge in projected draft position.

Tre'Quan Smith, UCF Knights: 369 yards per season
Scouts Inc.: No. 149 overall
Similar historical prospects: Shaun McDonald, Chris Henry

The fact that Playmaker puts Smith within striking distance of many of this year's top prospects, despite Smith's low projected draft position, speaks to how highly Playmaker rates his prospects.

Smith's prospects are solid across the board. He is the only underclassman wide receiver in this year's draft who scored a touchdown in more than 3 percent of his team's pass attempts in his best season. Smith also had solid yardage numbers and a good yards-per-reception rate, and he averaged a little less than half a rushing attempt per game.

Teams should not be turned off because Smith faced competition in the American Athletic Conference rather than the SEC. For wide receivers, there is no historical correlation between strength of competition in college and success. Some of the top wide receivers in NFL history have come from schools that are a lot smaller than UCF. Just to name a few, Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State University, Randy Moss went to Marshall, and Antonio Brown went to Central Michigan. That's not to suggest that Smith will enter such rarefied company, but he is certainly worth a flier in the middle of the draft.

Methodology
Playmaker Score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996 through 2015, and it measures the following:

  • The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from Scouts Inc.

  • The wide receiver prospect's best or peak season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e. a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a 2.50)

  • The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt

  • The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply 0 for a player whose peak season was his most recent season)

  • The wide receiver's vertical jump from pre-draft workouts

  • A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility

  • The wide receiver's college career yards per reception

  • The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during his peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.
—————

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft...ings-greatest-strengths-biggest-flaws-of-wrs/

2018 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Greatest strengths, biggest flaws of WRs

This class of wide receivers has gotten an undeserved bad rap. There are absolutely first-round caliber wideouts -- yes, plural -- in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Courtland Sutton played in a wide-open offense at SMU but dominated cornerbacks for three seasons at the collegiate level and crushed his combine workout. He's my clear-cut WR1, and the rest of my top 50 features five more receivers.

With the prevalence of the pass in today's NFL, the wideout spot has grown in importance, so much so that I consider it a "premium position."

Read on for a breakdown of the top 50 prospects on my board.

1. Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
2. Derwin James, S, Florida State
3. Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
4. Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

5. Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU: Strengths: Tall with muscular build. Long arms and big hands. Dominates in contested-catch situations and when the pass is outside his frame. Can make acrobatic grabs that require difficult body contortion. Impressive wiggle and burst after the catch, especially for his size. Good long speed. Weaknesses: Occasional drops on easy throws. Didn't run many intricate routes in college.


6. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
7. Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
8.Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
9. Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa
10. Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
11. Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
12. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
13. Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
14. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
15. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, OLB, Oklahoma
16. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

18. James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State: Strengths: Elite long speed on the field. Uses long arms and big hands well, as he makes many difficult grabs in traffic down the field. No wasted motion in YAC situations. Gets North-South. Outstanding body control near the sidelines. High-points well. Weaknesses: Lacks height. Some strange drops on wide-open targets. Only ran a few routes at Oklahoma State. Not an agility-based YAC wideout.

19. Vita Vea, DT, Washington
20. Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA
21. Isaiah Wynn, OL, Georgia
22. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
23. Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
24. Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
25. Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
26. Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
27. Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
28. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
29. Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
30. Connor Williams, OT, Texas
31. Dorian O'Daniel, OLB, Clemson

32. Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State: Strengths: Slippery route-runner. Plus body control and outside-of-frame receiving skills. Deceptive ability after the catch, can make corners miss with subtle lateral quickness and burst. Natural ball skills and has a "my ball" attitude. Weaknesses: Lacks elite explosiveness and long speed. Doesn't win with his frame, as he's a somewhat shorter wideout.


33. Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
34. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
35. Mike McGinchey, OT, Notre Dame
36. Ronald Jones II, RB, USC
37. Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan

38. Marcell Ateman, WR, Oklahoma State: Strengths: Power-forward body type. Crazy ball-skills, particularly when high level of concentration is needed with tight coverage. Routinely high-points the football. Red-zone monster. Weaknesses: Not a speedster. Somewhat slender frame could hurt him against press. Average yards-after-the-catch skills. Didn't run many routes at Oklahoma State.

39. Braden Smith, OG, Auburn
40. Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon
41. Holton Hill, CB, Texas
42. James Daniels, C, Iowa
43. Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford

44. Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: Strengths: Suddenness helps him beat press often. Sharp cuts while running his routes. Good long speed. Weakensses: Slight frame. Despite his route-running acumen, he's not a dynamic YAC receiver.


45. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

46. Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis: Strengths: Most impressive "my ball" mentality in the class. Proficient route-runner. Crafty with the ball in his hands as a runner. Plays bigger than his size. Weaknesses: Short, compact frame. Quicker than fast.

47. Billy Price, OL, Ohio State
48. Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina State

49. Deontay Burnett, WR, USC: Strengths: Outstanding ball skills, especially on off-target throws. Nimble footwork -- which will help against the press -- and understands how to find soft spots in zone or when to continue his route against man. Finds and has the quickness to work through tiny cracks in the defense with the ball in his hands. Weaknesses: Not slow but not a burner. Tiny frame.

50. Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
 

NJRamsFan

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First off, awesome post @jrry32 I have to admit I can totally see the subtle flashes of Antonio Browns game. what round do you think we would have to take this kid? admittedly I'm behind on my draft prospects this year.

*Side note- anyone else notice the qb keep flashing on those highlights? a couple of those throws were impressive
 

Elmgrovegnome

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Miller didn't get much separation in those clips.

Austin Pettis or DJ Moore are better fits for the deep threat role. Moore is tough and strong. He would be good across the middle like Sammy was. Pettis is more about blazing speed.


Doesn't this belong in the draft forum?
 

CGI_Ram

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Doesn't this belong in the draft forum?

We are keeping mocks in the draft section, between free agency and the draft, there tends to be less to talk about, and the topics intermingled... so we feel the segregation isn’t required.

Our goal all along is to make topics easy to find and as organized as we can. This is an odd time of year where we blend these two sections of our forum. Hopefully it’s not too confusing.
 

NJRamsFan

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We are keeping mocks in the draft section, between free agency and the draft, there tends to be less to talk about, and the topics intermingled... so we feel the segregation isn’t required.

Our goal all along is to make topics easy to find and as organized as we can. This is an odd time of year where we blend these two sections of our forum. Hopefully it’s not too confusing.
This reeks of conspiracy....ROD is trying to distract us with a mock outside of the draft forum while they backdoor a deal with TST and sell our interwebz data!

Fight the power! #NotMyAdmin
 

1maGoh

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@jrry32 when you say he had unorthodox route running, what does that mean? Clearly I know nothing, but it looked like he was running and making cuts. Which is the same thing I see other WRs do.

Also he's not 6'30" running 4.0 40 so clearly he isn't a difference maker.
 

Adi

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Can' see them going reciever too early , have alot of holes for starters on defense.

I am nervous , woods or kupp get hurt and we are screwed. Reynolds showrd flashes but not sold on him yet .hopefully they draft a wr and a few free agents will become available after cuts
 

JRobinson

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I wouldn't be surprised if we did indeed draft a WR or an OT at 23 (assuming we stay there). Although I believe that LB is the pressing need as everyone seems to think, this FO has convinced me that no matter what they do, they have a plan; and thats becoming a cliche statement, but its very true up to this point.
 

Ramhusker

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Courtland Sutton if we are going to draft a WR early or Daurice Fountain if we draft one late.
 

Faceplant

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Great write up @jrry32 .I like Miller as well, but I am on record for wanting DJ Moore. Granted, I am admitted homer for Terps players, but I love the kids game and his intangibles. I have seen every game he played in college, and I think his skill set translates to the NFL very nicely.....reminds me of Sammy Watkins, but I honestly think he can be better. He is a strong kid.
 

Jacobarch

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His tape is amazing but I'm also going to look at his competition. And realistically a lot of those defenses he went up against were atrocious.

On the flip side i like his fight for the ball and he looks like he knows how to best man coverage. I don't get the sense of him being a man amongst boys but I didn't get that feeling with Bruce or Djax in college either ... So who knows. It's all about these WRs being around the right coaches and the right system that compliments their attributes.
I'd take a flyer on him in the 3rd if he's still around. But honestly with us having no 2nd rounder it's going to make our 1st round pick a tough one
 

Billy Baroo

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Miller didn't get much separation in those clips.

Austin Pettis or DJ Moore are better fits for the deep threat role. Moore is tough and strong. He would be good across the middle like Sammy was. Pettis is more about blazing speed.


Doesn't this belong in the draft forum?
How did Pettis sneak back into draft? I say no on name alone.
 

LesBaker

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I find myself nervous about our WR unit. I love Woods and Kupp as starters, but I’m struggling to bank on the projection of Reynolds and Thomas to step up.

The Rams trade and effort to resign Watkins, plus kicking the tires on OBJ, tells me the Rams might agree.

Throw in the fact that they spent time and effort to keep Austin too. I think you are right, but I don't think they make a play for Beckham but I can see Snead doing something in the draft to add to that group. I wonder if Cooper is going to get more snaps this year.

*Side note- anyone else notice the qb keep flashing on those highlights? a couple of those throws were impressive

I clicked on the vid and the very first pass I said to myself damn he dropped that right on him!!
 

dang

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Not with R1.23 but if we trade down for an early R2 and early R3 - then using early R3 for best WR fit (red zone target/strong hands/decent speed).