If healthy Gurley is the best player in the draft

[dbrooks25]

Apologies if this has been posted somewhere already:

Nick WagonerVerified account ‏@nwagoner
Interesting analogy from someone at Rams Park: STL passing on Gurley for an OT who isn't sure thing akin to AZ passing on AP for Levi Brown.

 

[jsimcox]

Interesting tweet from Nick Wagoner:

Interesting analogy from someone at Rams Park: STL passing on Gurley for an OT who isn't sure thing akin to AZ passing on AP for Levi Brown.

Sounds like a no-brainer when you look at it like that.

 

[ZigZagRam]

Hey guys, has anyone compared Todd Gurley to the Arizona Cardinals passing on AP for Levi Brown yet?

 

[brokeu91]

Hey guys, has anyone compared Todd Gurley to the Arizona Cardinals passing on AP for Levi Brown yet?

 

[RamzFanz]

It was posted here, but it was a basketball doc, not about football players, and how fast the rehab should be was not discussed.

The Rams seem to have rushed two players back last year recovering from ACL tears. In the presser Fisher seemed to acknowledge that they would take their time with Gurley, and be conservative. What that likely means is that Gurley will start the season on IR with the ability to return - their one slot for that. He'll have to wait I think 6 weeks into the season then to start practicing at least which means that at the very least he will miss half the season. He might be worth it, but that means that 1/8 of his first contract will already have been used - plus figure he won't be a starter initially for at least a few weeks. So most of his rookie year is shot.

He may ultimately be worth it - before the injury he was a special talent - but that's a lot to give up, for a player at a position where the Rams have good non-elite depth while having holes elsewhere.

So yes, I'm concerned. I like Snisher, but at times they do like to act like they're smarter than everybody else in the room, so to speak, and gamble on raw players or health risks. Mitigating that with this pick is that it's a draft without a lot of exceptional prospects so they are giving up less opportunity cost than in most drafts, and that while it's a gamble that we won't be able to fully judge until 2016 (at least) IF it works out the Rams may have gotten the best player in the draft.

From surgery to being on the field physically able to play full speed is 7 months and a week according to the top NFL ACL surgeon. That means July 1st he can practice full speed if he's typical.

He then has to retrain his knee muscles because they lose all muscle memory in the surgery. If he can do that in 2 months, he'll be ready game 1. That part is unpredictable. AP played like 6 games under 100 yards before he exploded.

There's no medical reason TG needs to go on IR. There's no medical reason he can't start game one IF he's comfortable. The healing is complete at that point.

 

[Loyal]

My concern is that while Faulk and Dickerson were both outstanding athletes, Hall of Famers for sure, they also had great offensive lines in front of them. After Dickerson left Charles White stepped in and led the league in rushing, and after he left Greg Bell stepped in and rushed for over 1000 yards, and led the league in rushing TDs. Clearly they weren't elite talents, and benefited from an outstanding offensive line. Similarly, for all the praise that Faulk deservedly gets, the GSOT o-line is still criminally underrated in my opinion. That was a very good line as well.

Now can Gurley come in and perform with an average or maybe even mediocre line, as Stephen Jackson did? Can the line itself be improved into good, perhaps even great, range, and thus REALLY exploit Gurley's talents? That remains to be seen I guess.

Well, the part that's not over, is that the rest of the draft still awaits. Adreas Peat was soft and I am glad as #$%^ that we didn't pick a soft Olineman. It's often been explained to me that you don't pick a Guard in the 1st round...We will get a good player with the 9th pick, which would surprise me that it isn't a Guard..a damn good Guard prospect. Barrett Jones is probably going to get a chance to be our Center...Joe Barksdale isn't great..But then was part of the reason he was bad against great DE's, because of the weakness of Davin Joseph? We had a chance to get an absolute playmaker at RB instead of Peat..I am absolutely fine with that...jmo.

 

[FrankenRam]

That's just not true. While it is true we should be careful not to read too much into other players' injuries, the fact that two players recovering from ACLs retore them shows that there IS a risk, especially if players get rushed. Since RB is a position where dangerous contact is routine, that means the Rams at least should keep Gurley out a bit longer than they might have otherwise.

What good is experience, if you can't learn from it?

I'm sorry, but is true. Just because Bradford/Long had setbacks is absolutely NO indication Gurley will. As someone else stated in the thread, Frank Gore had 2 ACL's in college. Doesn't seem to have hampered his career at all.

They absolutely should learn something about the experience with Bradford/Long, and they did...since both are gone. But there's absolutely no correlation between their injuries, and Gurley's....other than it was the same basic injury.

 

[fancents86]

I'm sorry, but is true. Just because Bradford/Long had setbacks is absolutely NO indication Gurley will. As someone else stated in the thread, Frank Gore had 2 ACL's in college. Doesn't seem to have hampered his career at all.

They absolutely should learn something about the experience with Bradford/Long, and they did...since both are gone. But there's absolutely no correlation between their injuries, and Gurley's....other than it was the same basic injury.

Wait, so you can't compare players who have tore acl's and failed to recover but you CAN compare them to those who completely recovered? How does that make any sense.

You can compare players physical ability to one another, but recovery ability is not the same. Some people just have shitty genetics and never recover as well. Then you have the genetic marvels like AP who come back 100%.

 

[Mackeyser]

Gurley's having NO pain in the knee and doing both heavy and quick lifting with equal weight on both legs. He's at stage 2 of his rehab doing prescribed cuts and changes of direction. He's a few weeks away from doing random cuts and should be good to go.

He's on a special diet to optimize his recover at EXOS, associated with the Andrews Institute and every last stage of his recovery has been managed to optimize his recovery. Now that alone doesn't guarantee everything, but when coupled with the fact that he took almost NO damage to the meniscus (THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT) and no other ligaments took damage and the ACL tear was a clean tear, it means that this has the potential to heal up and leave him with no lasting effects.

Thus, if Fisher manages this properly, we very well may have the best RB in years and only have to wait part of a season to play him....which we probably would have waited anyway while he learns how to properly pick up blitzes in our offense.

I have every confidence that Gurley is going to win folks over.

(for the record, I said at the time that I wanted Latavius Murray over Zac Stacy... Now, if we had L. Murray, I dunno what I'd be thinking because I think Latavius Murray is just as good as the other Murray and will break out this year, but I actually think that Gurley can be and will be BETTER. And for the Rams... that will be huge.)

 

[Akrasian]

I'm sorry, but is true. Just because Bradford/Long had setbacks is absolutely NO indication Gurley will. As someone else stated in the thread, Frank Gore had 2 ACL's in college. Doesn't seem to have hampered his career at all.

They absolutely should learn something about the experience with Bradford/Long, and they did...since both are gone. But there's absolutely no correlation between their injuries, and Gurley's....other than it was the same basic injury.

Heh. To say that it was the same basic injury is to admit there is some correlation. Remember that correlation doesn't mean that every case is identical - what is required in cases like this is to recognize that there is a realistic chance that what happened to Bradford and Long has a real chance of happening to Gurley. And to be fair, Fisher has said that the Rams will be very careful with Gurley - presumably at least PARTIALLY because of the experiences the Rams had last season. i.e. - he is acknowledging there is a risk. Between the greater risk of injury (which IS real) and the need to take it slower with Gurley than they have with "the same basic injury" in the past, that reduces Gurley's value. He may ultimately be worth it, but hiding your head in the sand about the risks of coming off of an ACL injury is not a good policy.

 

[FrankenRam]

Wait, so you can't compare players who have tore acl's and failed to recover but you CAN compare them to those who completely recovered? How does that make any sense.

You can compare players physical ability to one another, but recovery ability is not the same. Some people just have crappy genetics and never recover as well. Then you have the genetic marvels like AP who come back 100%.

Exactly. No 2 people heal (or don't) from the same injury the same way. Yes, there is some assumed risk for the same player having the same injury again. But you can't compare the risk of Player A's ability to recover from that injury to Player B's. It may not quite be an apples to oranges comparison to do so, but at best it's a Wasington Delicious to Green apples comparison....at most.