If anyone ever doubted how useless QBR is !?!

[OldSchool]

If you guys really want to add to your annoyance, check out the PFF grades. There's an even bigger disparity between Goff and Prescott. Don't ask them to explain.

I made the mistake of commenting how stupid the PFF grades were on reddit. Ended up with several replies and messages defending it. One idiot even used QBR to justify PFF.

 

[OldSchool]

I used to rely on PFF for some stuff, but over the years, I've begun to think they are biased towards players they like.

I noticed that they went out of their way to discuss how Goff almost "threw the game away" on that throw that he threw into triple coverage. However, they completely disregarded the throw that Webster nearly intercepted.

I'm sorry, but grading a QB, who threw for 250+ yards, 2 TD, 0 INT and led his team to 35 points (none by D or ST), with a 45.2 (which equates to poor) grade is absolutely asinine.

Was Goff great against Dallas? No, but I thought he was GOOD for sure.

Better than half as good as Dak that's for sure.

 

[1maGoh]

IDK....running QB's have given teams fits for years....this didn't just start. It's been huge in the NFC West the last 5 seasons alone.

Usually a terrible offensive line...

Or could the perception of the line being terrible be because the QB is constantly running around getting sacked instead of making passing plays?

Let's take Michael Vick as an example. Probably one of the most electrifying running QBs, particularly that I remember (being a millennial and all, damn you @LesBaker !)

He only went to the playoffs in his statistically better passing years. A lot of things go into whether a team goes to the playoffs, but the QB is a major one. Second, his best running years coincide with his best passing years.

Coincidence? No.

When they're a legit threat to pass, their ability and patience to run when they see a favorable look becomes a strategic advantage. As long as they're looking to run after the first or second read, or they can't beat a defense through the air, the tendency to run will put them on bad situations against disciplined defenses.

I'm sure that there are examples from way back in the day that could be cited of QBs who ran at the first sign of trouble with great career success back in the 60's and 70's. But football back in the day could be won with elite athletes alone. Nutrition, kinesiology, and paychecks that allowed people to focus on football to the exclusion of all else were in their infancy back than. An extremely gifted athlete that didn't need to work out as much to physically compete, or an average gifted athlete that put in a ton of time in the gym could dominate with ease. That's part of the reason it's hard for guys to break records from back in the day now even though they have more games. Everyone is a super athlete compared to the 60's and 70's.

"Wooooo, he can run!" Isn't a valid strategy anymore.

The knock on Russell Wilson? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

The knock on Dak Prescott? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

The knock on Vick until he got out of prison? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

The knock every modern day running QB until they stop running so much and improve as pocket passers? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

And it's true.

 

[jrry32]

I used to rely on PFF for some stuff, but over the years, I've begun to think they are biased towards players they like.

I noticed that they went out of their way to discuss how Goff almost "threw the game away" on that throw that he threw into triple coverage. However, they completely disregarded the throw from Dak that Webster nearly intercepted.

I'm sorry, but grading a QB, who threw for 250+ yards, 2 TD, 0 INT and led his team to 35 points (none by D or ST), with a 45.2 (which equates to poor) grade is absolutely asinine.

Was Goff great against Dallas? No, but I thought he was GOOD for sure.

They're biased, and their system is biased.

Yea, I made the same observation. They rip into Goff for the terrible decision that nearly led to the Anthony Brown pick, but they ignore that Dak threw an interception and had three others dropped. I pointed out earlier in the year that they gave Goff a horrible grade against the Skins and Dak a great grade against the Giants despite Dak's numbers being atrocious and Goff's numbers being solid. It's clear there is some bias in play here.

I made the mistake of commenting how stupid the PFF grades were on reddit. Ended up with several replies and messages defending it. One idiot even used QBR to justify PFF.

Just quote one of my 100 rants about PFF's grading. That ought to shut them up.

 

[wiley16350]

IDK....running QB's have given teams fits for years....this didn't just start. It's been huge in the NFC West the last 5 seasons alone.

Usually a terrible offensive line...

It isn't the offensive line. In fact those guys tend to get more time in the pocket than pocket passers. Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Rodgers, John Elway, Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick take (or took) a lot of unnecessary sacks for a variety of reasons. Dan Marino, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady took (or take) a lot less sacks because they get the ball out of their hands much quicker because they do (did) a better job of recognizing the weakness of the defense and got the ball in the hands of the open guy, even if it was a check down.

Running QB's give teams fits for short periods of time unless they evolve into a complete QB like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, John Elway and Donovan McNabb have/did. Mike Vick and Colin Kapernick are examples of guys that never really evolved so defenses learned how to stop them and they never became as great as they could have been. Running certainly adds an element that can make the QB tough to stop but all too often, the easiest way to stop them is to keep them in the pocket and let them throw the ball. They'll throw the ball in the dirt or throw it to covered receivers even though they had other guys wide open. They'll do it even though pressure was no where to be found. Then they'll even give you free sacks just because they bail out of a good pocket, run towards pressure, fail to throw the ball away just because they think they can make a play or just can't see the open receiver despite having more than 4 seconds to find one. Defenses have to beat good pocket passers. They have to get pressure and even then, if the coverage isn't there the good pocket passer will still win. You just can't say that about the great running QB's. They will beat themselves and go through stretches of games where they just suck even though the defense isn't really forcing them to.

P.S. I don't necessarily think Russell Wilson is a running QB because he currently plays like a pocket passer with the ability to run. I actually compare him to Joe Montana as a player because they both use the run effectively as a last ditch effort and not as a crutch or a necessary component to his game. He can play pretty well from the pocket and get rid of the ball within the design of the offense through proper reads and progressions. They are the example of how running ability should give a QB an advantage. Russell Wilson does play behind a bad offensive line. When I talk of a running QB, I am talking about a guy that is his best when on the move and he is most comfortable in that state. They tend to resort to moving in the pocket or running the ball even when it isn't necessary. They make bad teams better because they can make some amazing plays but they'll make good teams worse because they aren't comfortable when just throwing from the pocket.

 

[nighttrain]

As the great Kenny Stabler once said, I've seen a lot of good young running QB's, but never as old one".

so true
train

 

[LesBaker]

Or could the perception of the line being terrible be because the QB is constantly running around getting sacked instead of making passing plays?

Let's take Michael Vick as an example. Probably one of the most electrifying running QBs, particularly that I remember (being a millennial and all, damn you @LesBaker !)

He only went to the playoffs in his statistically better passing years. A lot of things go into whether a team goes to the playoffs, but the QB is a major one. Second, his best running years coincide with his best passing years.

Coincidence? No.

When they're a legit threat to pass, their ability and patience to run when they see a favorable look becomes a strategic advantage. As long as they're looking to run after the first or second read, or they can't beat a defense through the air, the tendency to run will put them on bad situations against disciplined defenses.

I'm sure that there are examples from way back in the day that could be cited of QBs who ran at the first sign of trouble with great career success back in the 60's and 70's. But football back in the day could be won with elite athletes alone. Nutrition, kinesiology, and paychecks that allowed people to focus on football to the exclusion of all else were in their infancy back than. An extremely gifted athlete that didn't need to work out as much to physically compete, or an average gifted athlete that put in a ton of time in the gym could dominate with ease. That's part of the reason it's hard for guys to break records from back in the day now even though they have more games. Everyone is a super athlete compared to the 60's and 70's.

"Wooooo, he can run!" Isn't a valid strategy anymore.

The knock on Russell Wilson? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

The knock on Dak Prescott? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

The knock on Vick until he got out of prison? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

The knock every modern day running QB until they stop running so much and improve as pocket passers? Keep him in the pocket and his play goes to crap.

And it's true.

The running QB thing goes back to Randall Cunningham. It started there with him coming out of college as this electric athlete who could do it all.

Now back then you were still swimming around in some nuts just eagerly longing to be set free!

It was the mid 80's when he burst onto the scene. Fast, agile, quick feet, rocket arm (maybe the most powerful ever too), really smart, great looking guy with a dazzling smile and personality, team mates and coaches loved him. He was poised to take over the NFL.

There is a SI cover with him on it calling him the Ultimate Weapon.

He had 4-5 years of doing what all the running QB's did Meaning have some great games and some average games and some bad games. And the hits and injuries caught up and it was over. Until he became a pocket passer late in his career and had one excellent year. Had he done that from the start of his career he would probably be in the HOF.

 

[1maGoh]

The running QB thing goes back to Randall Cunningham. It started there with him coming out of college as this electric athlete who could do it all.

Now back then you were still swimming around in some nuts just eagerly longing to be set free!

It was the mid 80's when he burst onto the scene. Fast, agile, quick feet, rocket arm (maybe the most powerful ever too), really smart, great looking guy with a dazzling smile and personality, team mates and coaches loved him. He was poised to take over the NFL.

There is a SI cover with him on it calling him the Ultimate Weapon.

He had 4-5 years of doing what all the running QB's did Meaning have some great games and some average games and some bad games. And the hits and injuries caught up and it was over. Until he became a pocket passer late in his career and had one excellent year. Had he done that from the start of his career he would probably be in the HOF.

Point and case. Thanks for the assist with your super old guy knowledge.

 

[TSFH Fan]

For yet another alternative, I started paying attention to Football Outsiders before the 2016 draft when their analysis gave Goff a high probability for success in the pros (higher probability than . . . others). I don't know if they're really any good, I just use them as needed to feed my confirmation bias. But if anyone has a need for acronyms and if you fancy fancier fancy stats, they seem like a place to go.

Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

There are five main differences between Total QBR and Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (with further explanation here):

• Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.
• Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.
• Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.
• Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.
• Beginning in 2016, Total QBR is now adjusted for strength of opponent. Total QBR on other stats pages (pre-2016) has not yet been updated with oppponent adjustment. (Note: We plan on updating all QB Stats pages with adjusted QBR and a qualifying minimum of 200 passes sometime before the end of the 2017 season.)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

 

[Tron]

Fuck qbr and pff. They can suck my fat 3-1 scoring leading, NFC West leading dick!!

 

[Ram65]

 

[nighttrain]

We won the turnover battle 2-0, and that was the game. everything else pretty equal
train
ps and then there was Legatron

 

[Karate61]

I think they deducted some QBR points cause Goff's helmet speakers broke in the 1st Quarter.

 

[nighttrain]

if i remember correctly Kurt Warner always got great QBR ratings, right?

And he was the worst running, least mobile QB in the game,ever
train

 

[bomebadeeda]

Oh, I can think of something else that held him back....
<Cough>
Fisher
<Cough>

Gee......you'd think he kicked your dog or something..........:rolllaugh::rolllaugh::rolllaugh::rolllaugh::rolllaugh:

 

[Ram65]

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

........Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency...............

When a team fails to convert on third down, struggles in the red zone, takes a lot of sacks or turns the ball over, it generally registers as negative EPA for the offense. But not all turnovers are created equal: A Hail Mary interception at the end of the half is not as impactful as one in the middle of the second quarter –- and EPA knows that.

Division of credit

EPA provides the context for every play and also holds the key to separating the quarterback’s impact from his teammates’. For all plays in which a quarterback is involved -– passes, rushes, sacks, penalties, fumbles, etc. -– the team-level EPA is calculated and then divided among a quarterback and his teammates. In other words, was the play successful and how much of that success is a result of a quarterback’s skill?.............................


It's not just about running. Seems very complicated. Rams/Goff Red Zone conversion was 25% compared to Cowpies/Prescott of 75%.

Cowboys had better third down conversion. They converted 50% 7/14 compared to 38.5 % 5/13 for the Rams.

I can see these factoring in to the QBR #s.

I like a QB that can extend a play like Dak did. Goff can extend plays but he more of a pocket passer.

 

[bomebadeeda]

Watching him run around is amazing....in fact, they couldn't win without it....Looking at Matt Stafford run around is amazing....Looking at Aaron Rodgers scramble around is amazing. It's truly a unique and valuable skill UNTIL they (young QB's) become better pocket passers...

While I understand what you are saying......they are great athletes.......they aren't great QBs. They are passable QBs who are great highlight reels. I have to say... Mike Vick was astonishing on some of those 3 and 15 runs.......he made a 13 yd run look great.... (or a blowout win look even more spectacular....) But when he had to play QB and not RB......there was always something lacking. Playing QB is like a PG who leads the team in scoring.....looks good on the stat sheet.......... But rarely gets the "W". His job is to get the ball to his playmakers. And he's not doing that on a highlight 18 yard run on 3 and 20.

 

[wiley16350]

I made the mistake of commenting how stupid the PFF grades were on reddit. Ended up with several replies and messages defending it. One idiot even used QBR to justify PFF.

I don't know how someone could use QBR to defend PFF because they disagree a lot. In fact, my system tends to be in between both systems and usually in agreement with one or the other as they each tend be at extremes. My system tends to agree with QBR when the stats line up with how the QB played, good or bad. ESPN is completely stat based and it is clear that the ratings do not come from watching the tape so when a QB has hidden int's like you guys say Dak had, ESPN will not catch that. ESPN will not count for dropped passes or sacks caused by the offensive line either. The rating is only good when the stats are a solid indicator of how well the QB did. PFF focuses too much on great plays and not enough on the QB just making positive plays and moving the ball. Good game managers get screwed by the PFF system. Much like Goff was in the 2 games that he graded so poorly by PFF. I am currently grading the Cowboys game to see if Goff was really that bad. I find it ridiculous that he graded so poorly this week. I also think PFF doesn't do a great job of recognizing passes that are thrown away because I see some great QB performances by my system that don't grade well by PFF and my suspicion is that they don't respect the throw away. They prefer the QB to run. My system is rarely the lone wolf when I compare all 3 systems for any given QB performance. Mine is either between the other 2 or it agrees with one of the other ones. The instances where mine is most likely to be the lone wolf is when a QB was constantly under pressure and he struggled to get completions that mostly weren't his fault. Think Carson Palmer. That gives me the confidence that my system is the best one in judging QB's.

 

[LesBaker]

Donovan McNabb

Was very average.......

Point and case.

Do you mean "case in point'?

Also do you mean I have super knowledge or I'm super old LOL.

freak qbr and pff. They can suck my fat 3-1 scoring leading, NFC West leading dick!!

The ESPN stat is horseshit.

 

[nighttrain]

The running QB thing goes back to Randall Cunningham. It started there with him coming out of college as this electric athlete who could do it all.

Now back then you were still swimming around in some nuts just eagerly longing to be set free!

It was the mid 80's when he burst onto the scene. Fast, agile, quick feet, rocket arm (maybe the most powerful ever too), really smart, great looking guy with a dazzling smile and personality, team mates and coaches loved him. He was poised to take over the NFL.

There is a SI cover with him on it calling him the Ultimate Weapon.

He had 4-5 years of doing what all the running QB's did Meaning have some great games and some average games and some bad games. And the hits and injuries caught up and it was over. Until he became a pocket passer late in his career and had one excellent year. Had he done that from the start of his career he would probably be in the HOF.

ahhh, guess ya never heard of Bert Jones.....
train