There is something about watching these two guys that stands out to me; Watkins looks like an NFL player. Evans looks like an amazing college talent.
I'm no scout. My opinion doesn't hold water on a message board... But...
I don't know what it is... Evans long strides? His lack of separation on those highlight vids? His no show game against Missouri may have really tainted my opinion?
This is something Greg Cosell recently said while basically eating crow on Alshon Jeffery:
When I started really getting into college evaluation for the NFL draft about eight or nine years ago, one of the things I had trouble with was projecting bigger receivers in the NFL.
Size receivers rarely look fast on film when they run. I was wrong on some guys because I would note that they weren’t fast. They’d do well in the pros and I’d wonder what I was missing. Then I started to look at the big guys differently. Their stride length is so long, that makes their speed. It seems like they eat up 15 yards in three steps.
I think a lot of people have the same issue. It's easy to miss. Evans is a long strider. He beats CBs because he doesn't look like you're moving fast. It's deceptive. It's the same thing Brandon Lloyd would do. As a CB, you flip your hips out of your back-pedal as late as you BELIEVE you can. Because when you do that, it makes it much harder for you to break and cut with the WR(as well as read the QB, keep track of the WR and track the football). That's why long striders are so dangerous. CBs underestimate their speed and are late flipping their hips. Those guys just eat up so much ground with each stride that you don't notice how fast they're moving. With a little guy like Tavon with his legs pumping 100 miles per hour, you can see it. But with huge guys like Calvin, Alshon, Moss and even Evans(not that he belongs in the speed conversation with Moss or Calvin), you miss it if you don't look at how they're moving in relation to other guys on the field.
And I think it's worth pointing out that a lot of people mistake being open for separation. For example, Watkins may look like a NFL player from his highlights but you also have to keep in mind that it's a lot easier for a guy like him to get separation against college DBs. He's blazing fast. So if they blow a coverage or don't execute their zone assignments or the DB makes a mistake, Watkins is going to get VERY open. The thing is that in the NFL, that same level of separation isn't present. You're going up against DBs that have top shelf athleticism. You're going up against top notch competition. In the NFL, you have to be able to consistently come up with the football with a DB on your back, a DB in your hip pocket, in traffic and with a hand trying to rip that ball out. That's why to me, I think Evans actually resembles more the NFL player at this stage.
Think about Chris Givens. Think about his blazing speed. How good does he look when he is able to separate with his blazing speed? Now, why is Givens not a better player? Because when he can't separate with speed, he can't be trusted to make the tough catch in traffic. He can't be trusted to pull down a contested ball. He can't be trusted to consistently make the grab with a DB trying to rip the ball out.(not that I'm saying Watkins is Givens)
And that's why I see Evans as the more can't miss player. He's already proven all that. He's proven he can do that. He gets separation but he doesn't need it to consistently come down with the catch.
Again, I do have Watkins rated a little bit higher because Watkins does have a good pair of hands. But Watkins, due to the offense he played in as well as his skill-set and competition, hasn't been consistently put in situations where he has to make difficult catches in traffic or consistently come down with contested passes. So he hasn't proven he can do it like Evans. Regardless, I see him as pretty much a can't miss guy too because at worst, I think he'll be a really good deep threat.
But catching the ball and scoring when you ran by a less talented DB and have 5 yards of separation isn't what a NFL player looks like to me. Because those type of plays just aren't that common in the NFL. To me, a NFL play(which makes me think this guy is a NFL player) is making the tough catch in traffic with a defender on your back or skying over a defender and taking the ball away or having a DB cover you nearly perfectly and still finding a way to adjust and come up with the catch. That's what makes a guy special. Watkins has the potential to do that but he hasn't proven it in the same way that Evans has.
But I would draft him higher on that potential. Plus, I think he flashes a ton of ability as a route runner.
Lee, IMO, has an unconventional way of catching the ball, but I still think he has good hands. Bruce, for instance, wasn't conventional. I bet that Lee will change the way he catches it before the combine. Like I said, I'm looking forward to it. I think Watkins is good, but don't put him on the level of CJ, so I just don't know if the value is there. The Rams could think differently.
