GDT: The Early Games Week 10
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NFL Week 10 game picks: 49ers beat Seahawks; Browns nip Bills
Will the Seahawks hand the 49ers their first loss of the season? Can the Vikings get back on track in Dallas? Do the Browns get off the mat? Gregg Rosenthal predicts every Week 10 game.
www.nfl.com
Gregg Rosenthal went 8-6 on his predictions for Week 9, bringing his season record to 84-50-1. How will he fare in Week 10? His picks are below.
SUNDAY, NOV. 10
Baltimore Ravens 27, Cincinnati Bengals 13
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati)
This is a tricky first start for Bengals rookie Ryan Finley, even if A.J. Greenreturns from injury this week. (UPDATE: Green told reporters Thursday that he actually won't play this week, as his injured ankle swelled up Wednesday.) While Finley did a nice job completing 7-yard passes in the preseason, he has to face a Ravens defense that was able to fool Tom Brady multiple times last week with blitz packages. Baltimore's secondary is also much improved with Marcus Peters on board, Jimmy Smith back and Earl Thomas rounding into form. Oh, and the Bengals have to slow down a historically good rushing attack whose best game of the season came just four weeks ago ... against these Bengals.
Cleveland Browns 21, Buffalo Bills 20
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland)
This was the hardest game of the week to pick. Watching Baker Mayfieldhesitate before targeting open receivers and failing to connect on routine throws is painful. He's having the rookie season he bypassed last year, struggling to maintain his usual bravado during the first real rough patch he's experienced on the field since his freshman year at Texas Tech. If only he had Josh Allen's fortune. The 6-2 Bills have won a lot of close games against the league's worst teams and carry underlying statistics that suggest they could easily be 2-6 with different circumstances. Buffalo's overall efficiency and estimated wins total both rank just below the Browns, according to Football Outsiders, suggesting that a market correction is coming soon. For the sake of Baker's postgame outfit, here's to it happening this week.
Detroit Lions 22, Chicago Bears 20
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Soldier Field (Chicago)
Lions fans are obsessed with coach Matt Patricia's refusal to blitz, which is like picking on Baker Mayfield for his undershirt. (Sure, that's an issue, but it's one small part of a larger mess.) Luckily, Patricia's sagging defense faces a quarterback this week in Mitchell Trubisky who generates his own pressure by refusing to throw to open receivers. Another battle of weaknesses will occur when the Lions try to run on a suddenly porous Bears rush defense. In a coin-flip game between two desperate teams stuck in the NFL's middle, I'll always lean to the quarterback with five legitimate receiving options who doesn't need to watch the TV copy of games to remember to have fun.
New York Giants 28, New York Jets 24
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
The good news for Giants and Jets fans is that they should feel better about their young quarterbacks after Sunday. Sam Darnold has started the majority of games for a historically bad offense, but the team's inability to identify pressure should be less of a problem against a Giants front that rarely applies any. Daniel Jones matches his "ooh"-worthy plays each week with an equal number of turnovers, but he's facing a Jets defense that has started to buckle under the weight of this miserable season. Jones, who is nine days older than Darnold, appears to be a bit further ahead of his cross-stadium counterpart, in part because he has the better coach, offensive line and weapons around him. It's not exactly Namath-Tarkenton in New Haven, but it's all this once-proud football city has for now.
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Tennessee Titans 20
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
Beating the Vikings with Matt Moore should let the rest of the Chiefs know this team has championship-level talent, if they didn't know it already. The offense's ability to move the ball without Patrick Mahomes proved it wasn't just a one-man show, with Tyreek Hill ready to take over this stretch run. The team's attack has come into focus with Sammy Watkins back as the No. 2 wideout and Damien Williams as the clear No. 1 back, while Chris Jones is back for a quietly improving defense. Led by the safety tandem of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill, K.C. has shown it's capable of slowing limited opposing offenses. That's all the Chiefs need, and limited is exactly what the Titans' offense remains. It hasn't progressed since the Mike Mularkey-led playoff win over the Alex Smith Chiefs that helped usher in the Mahomes era in Kansas City. Twenty-two months can feel like a lifetime in the NFL.
UPDATE: Chiefs coach Andy Reid announced on Friday that Mahomes will return to the starting lineup on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Arizona Cardinals 24
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
Every team that faces this Bucs defense has a choice to make: Bang your head against the wall (Vita Vea) and Football Outsiders' top-ranked rush defense or forgo balance to throw like wild against the 26th-most-efficient pass defense. When even Seattle's Brian Schottenheimer calls for 43 throws, the choice is obvious. Unfortunately for Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals' running game -- with David Johnson returning alongside Kenyan Drake -- is the strength of the team. I don't yet trust Kyler Murray to keep up in a shootout, especially with Jameis Winston playing his best ball of the season for a 2-6 Bucs team that is better than its record indicates.
New Orleans Saints 33, Atlanta Falcons 21
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
I've called Falcons-Saints the NFL's best current rivalry for years, but it's probably time to retire that designation until the next Falcons regime takes over. Atlanta made a few cosmetic changes at kicker and punter during its bye week, and Matt Ryan is on track to return from an ankle injury, but fixing the defense will be an offseason job. It's not hyperbole to say this is the most complete Saints team of the Asshole Face era, while the Falcons need to win three more games just to avoid one of the franchise's worst seasons since Marion Campbell and Jim Hanifan coached up a Chris Miller-led squad in 1989. If you are a Falcons fan familiar with those names, my sympathies are with you during this difficult time.
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It really is a lousy lineup for this late in the season, isn’t it?
Not sure which game I’ll watch...
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