Football Outsiders: No change in Rams' record: 6-10/Wagoner

[Antonius]

I totally understand how some people are upset at this projected record for our team.

But when you lose year after year for over a decade, eventually you just have to go out and earn respect. Did anyone predict playoffs for the '99 Rams?

 

[Boston Ram]

I'm tired op people with this damn #1 receiver bull. RECEIVER WAS NOT THE PROBLEM LAST SEASON QB AND LINE AND QB WAS. You fix those 2 things and we're ready go. We may not have a dez bryant or Megatron but imo we have just as good of receivers as Seahawks and they went to super bowl twice in a row

Agreed last years two Super Bowl participants had pretty average WR's. The best receiver was a 7th round pick and college QB

 

[kurtfaulk]

Just because I like reading Nick's stuff I will remind everyone that these aren't his predictions. These are Football Outsider's predictions which they make for every team. I'm sure nick has us going 8-8 at least.

I'm pretty sure everyone, except for one lone soul, knew that. It's just that wagoner still seems so butt hurt that the rams didn't take Watkins last year and keeps death riding the offense.

Wells and Joseph gone. That can only be an upgrade or stay the same. Will not get worse. Foles instead of 2 career back up qbs. Again that can only be an improvement. Wrs were open all over the place last season but the qbs couldn't get them the ball because they were either clueless or their arm was worthless.

.

 

[shaunpinney]

Hell, USA Today has us ranked #11 in their pre season power rankings. This squad is seriously hard to peg.

I think it depends on how we do "Out of the gate". If we have a poor showing with more losses than wins pre-bye week, then I see sub .500 a true possibility unfortunately and I think it boils down to our defence, show up week one and do what they do best and we're off to a winning season.

With my homer blinkers off I see it like this:

1. We have one of the, if not THE best D-lines currently playing, they just seem to start slow, bring it guys, every week - please!
2. Our secondary dept. is maturing well, with flashes of brilliance now and then - I hope the errors are minimised this year.
3. Special teams & trickery, on our day, I don't think there's a better set of STers in the league
4. Greg the Leg needs to reduce his wayward kicking, I really don't want missed PATs this year of fluffed sub 40 FGs
5. QB: we've got a good starter, but he needs to improve on last year, I hope he stays healthy throughout the season (and post-season)
6. WRs: since adding Britt last year, I think we have a great set of WRs, not a Holt or a Bruce, but solid, and a bit of depth too - hoping Britt brings it again this year and Quick can return to the form we saw last year, Austin and Bailey could be threats in this league, I'm hoping Cignetti can use them to their potential.
7. RBs: Please don't rush Gurley back on the field, Mason is a more than capable starter and he's going to want to show the FO that he has the tools and ability to be a starter and lead-back in the NFL, he will also want to show other teams how good he is
8. O-line: ohh our much maligned offensive line... there are whole-sale changes here, they're young, they're big and I'm excited!!!
9. Coaching: Consistency please, Fisher can out-coach one week, but his game-plan can get torn apart others, we go from looking like contenders to one of the worst teams in the NFL, I just don't get it!
10. Penalties: Just cut 'em out guys, wouldn't mind seeing how many points we lost due to penalties last year...

With the OC, O-line and QB being totally new, it's difficult to project where we'll fall this year it could be 6-10, but the potential is there for a 12-4 season too, it's all about the pre-bye week for me, if we go 5-1, then we're on - but I do worry about what happens if we go 1-5, both seem like possible outcomes!

 

[Alan]

kurtfaulk doing his Mr. Magoo impersonation::
I'm pretty sure everyone, except for one lone soul, knew that. It's just that wagoner still seems so butt hurt that the rams didn't take Watkins last year and keeps death riding the offense.

There is absolutely nothing in his post that would lead me to believe that he's butt hurt so I'm not buying that everyone knew that except for one soul. Not only was he posting someone else's thoughts, he pointedly disagreed with them and still took the blame for it. If you don't think people ignored that and used it to further their own Bernie, JT, Nick Waggoner, local reporters bashing agenda you probably need to read this whole thread again.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onfw8-jOGls

This cartoon reminds me of the Nick Foles reaction thread. Different times that's for sure.

 

[RaminExile]

I think it depends on how we do "Out of the gate". If we have a poor showing with more losses than wins pre-bye week, then I see sub .500 a true possibility unfortunately and I think it boils down to our defence, show up week one and do what they do best and we're off to a winning season.

With my homer blinkers off I see it like this:

1. We have one of the, if not THE best D-lines currently playing, they just seem to start slow, bring it guys, every week - please!
2. Our secondary dept. is maturing well, with flashes of brilliance now and then - I hope the errors are minimised this year.
3. Special teams & trickery, on our day, I don't think there's a better set of STers in the league
4. Greg the Leg needs to reduce his wayward kicking, I really don't want missed PATs this year of fluffed sub 40 FGs
5. QB: we've got a good starter, but he needs to improve on last year, I hope he stays healthy throughout the season (and post-season)
6. WRs: since adding Britt last year, I think we have a great set of WRs, not a Holt or a Bruce, but solid, and a bit of depth too - hoping Britt brings it again this year and Quick can return to the form we saw last year, Austin and Bailey could be threats in this league, I'm hoping Cignetti can use them to their potential.
7. RBs: Please don't rush Gurley back on the field, Mason is a more than capable starter and he's going to want to show the FO that he has the tools and ability to be a starter and lead-back in the NFL, he will also want to show other teams how good he is
8. O-line: ohh our much maligned offensive line... there are whole-sale changes here, they're young, they're big and I'm excited!!!
9. Coaching: Consistency please, Fisher can out-coach one week, but his game-plan can get torn apart others, we go from looking like contenders to one of the worst teams in the NFL, I just don't get it!
10. Penalties: Just cut 'em out guys, wouldn't mind seeing how many points we lost due to penalties last year...

With the OC, O-line and QB being totally new, it's difficult to project where we'll fall this year it could be 6-10, but the potential is there for a 12-4 season too, it's all about the pre-bye week for me, if we go 5-1, then we're on - but I do worry about what happens if we go 1-5, both seem like possible outcomes!

And refereeing! We need good, consistent refereeing which we DID NOT have last year! That would have made the difference of about 3 wins in my homerized mind....

 

[shaunpinney]

And refereeing! We need good, consistent refereeing which we DID NOT have last year! That would have made the difference of about 3 wins in my homerized mind....

Yep the calls AGAINST the Rams were dubious to say the least!

 

[Fatbot]

I think it depends on how we do "Out of the gate". If we have a poor showing with more losses than wins pre-bye week, then I see sub .500 a true possibility unfortunately

Totally agree with this. Those first 5 games are brutal, four playoffs teams, and will be the season bell cow if the Rams are finally ready for prime time. Can't start slow against Seattle at home, have to win that game if things are going to be different this season. Or at least beat Pitt, and steal an away upset at GB or AZ. Need to come out 2-3 at worst if we want to finish 9-7, and a 3-2 start means double-digit wins and playoffs.

Our secondary dept. is maturing well, with flashes of brilliance now and then - I hope the errors are minimised this year.

To me this is all McLeod. Sadly I don't see him improving and I expect the coverage breakdowns will continue as long as he's starting.

Greg the Leg needs to reduce his wayward kicking, I really don't want missed PATs this year of fluffed sub 40 FGs

PAT"s", plural? The guy misses one PAT in his life and now he's missing multiples? That's his only PAT miss of his career, he's at 98.9%. I understand he had a bad stretch and that clunker in Washington, but in a "horrible" year still hit 80% FGs. He's 82% on his career that includes a hell of a lot of 50+ attempts. Compare to Morten Anderson, Janikowski, whoever career rates, GZ is right up there or more accurate on FGs and PATs. He also is over 50% touchbacks on kickoffs (his 66.6 yds/kick average distance is #1 in the NFL). You said you were taking off your homer glasses but I think you should put them back on here and don't jump off the GZ bandwagon. I still love the kid, he's a lethal long range weapon and has a great career ahead, including the NFL record for longest FG at some point!

Penalties: Just cut 'em out guys, wouldn't mind seeing how many points we lost due to penalties last year...

Probably not a meaningful amount of points lost. Remember there's no big statistical correlation between penalty rates and performance. But yeah, cut out the obvious stupid penalties, play the game smart (which includes the right kinds of penalties).

 

[Noregar]

Football Outsiders and PFF are just two different sides of the same turd in my book.

Locked inside the black box of their flawed data they lack the fundamental foresight needed for a true evaluation of our young Rams. They fail to see the obvious upside of this team and they are obtuse to the extenuating circumstances that affect a teams performance such as a brutal schedule and damning injures at critical positions like QB, LOT, and DE.

 

[FrantikRam]

I am optimistic and think we will win 10 games.

But hard to disagree with this assessment. Even factoring in natural progression, assuming the d line and our WRs and RBs will be better, the Oline is a HUGE ?

We may have 2 rooks and G Rob starting, along with potentially an inexperienced player at Center. Considering your entire offense can be shut down if your Oline plays poorly, I guess 6-10 wouldn't be completely shocking.

I've gotten my hopes up the past few years and they've been crushed. But I really think this is the year we make our move and get to the playoffs.

 

[Prime Time]

I totally understand how some people are upset at this projected record for our team.

But when you lose year after year for over a decade, eventually you just have to go out and earn respect. Did anyone predict playoffs for the '99 Rams?

Exactly. Jeff Fisher has at least done one thing right - considering the total unpredictability of this team and our scary defense - the days of opposing head coaches, players, and fans seeing the St. Louis Rams on their schedule and mentally chalking up a win, are over.

The continual losing year after year however, has worn down not only much of the fan base but Rams sportswriters as well. Bernie, JT, and the others have run out of Kool-Aid and their writing shows it.

Sites like Football Outsiders and others who prognosticate win/loss records before the season even begins aren't in the business of making themselves look stupid(although that inevitably happens anyway). They go for the "sure thing" picks. No one will predict the Rams to be in the Super Bowl this season but they'll pick the Patriots vs. the Seahawks, or the Broncos vs. the Packers to cover their butts. It's boring but understandable.

This is why I stay out of 'pick how many games we'll win this season" or "will we win the NFC West?" threads before we've even had training camp. It's an exercise in futility. But I will make this safe prediction: 2 teams will rise out of obscurity and make the playoffs, while 2 teams that seemed like sure bets to make the playoffs, based on past records, won't.

How will the Rams do this season? Who really knows? Ask me again after the bye. But one thing's for certain with all that's going on with the stadium stuff, along with all the players we've added and subtracted, it won't be a boring season one way or the other.

 

[Yamahopper]

They predict but yet the start of camp is weeks away. Okay then.

 

[Rmfnlt]

Exactly. Jeff Fisher has at least done one thing right - considering the total unpredictability of this team and our scary defense - the days of opposing head coaches, players, and fans seeing the St. Louis Rams on their schedule and mentally chalking up a win, are over.

The continual losing year after year however, has worn down not only much of the fan base but Rams sportswriters as well. Bernie, JT, and the others have run out of Kool-Aid and their writing shows it.

Sites like Football Outsiders and others who prognosticate win/loss records before the season even begins aren't in the business of making themselves look stupid(although that inevitably happens anyway). They go for the "sure thing" picks. No one will predict the Rams to be in the Super Bowl this season but they'll pick the Patriots vs. the Seahawks, or the Broncos vs. the Packers to cover their butts. It's boring but understandable.

This is why I stay out of 'pick how many games we'll win this season" or "will we win the NFC West?" threads before we've even had training camp. It's an exercise in futility. But I will make this safe prediction: 2 teams will rise out of obscurity and make the playoffs, while 2 teams that seemed like sure bets to make the playoffs, based on past records, won't.

How will the Rams do this season? Who really knows? Ask me again after the bye. But one thing's for certain with all that's going on with the stadium stuff, along with all the players we've added and subtracted, it won't be a boring season one way or the other.

Well said!!!
:bow:

 

[lockdnram21]

Why does everybody keep blaming Mcleod like Jenkins doesnt get beat like a drum. Half those plays were Janoris fault. Not saying Mcleod wasnt at fault at all but but Damn. I see CB more of a position of need then Safety. I dont trust none of our top 3 cbs to cover teams best receiver. We have a bunch of #2 cbs. Jenkins has potentiall but gambles to much

 

[Alan]

lockdnram21 tarring everyone with the same brush:
Why does everybody keep blaming Mcleod like Jenkins doesnt get beat like a drum.

I've been pointing out JJ's less than stellar play for years now but here's the thing for me. JJ's mistakes shouldn't always result in huge plays when we're playing zone coverage. That's what a center fielder is supposed to stop. While I hate it when JJ takes unnecessary chances and gets beat, sometimes those chances pay off. McLeod should be there to limit the damage when they don't and he's not more often than he is.

 

[jrry32]

Why does everybody keep blaming Mcleod like Jenkins doesnt get beat like a drum. Half those plays were Janoris fault. Not saying Mcleod wasnt at fault at all but but Damn. I see CB more of a position of need then Safety. I dont trust none of our top 3 cbs to cover teams best receiver. We have a bunch of #2 cbs. Jenkins has potentiall but gambles to much

Because McLeod has been to blame on quite a few TD screw-ups over the past two years.

 

[lockdnram21]

I've been pointing out JJ's less than stellar play for years now but here's the thing for me. JJ's mistakes shouldn't always result in huge plays when we're playing zone coverage. That's what a center fielder is supposed to stop. While I hate it when JJ takes unnecessary chances and gets beat, sometimes those chances pay off. McLeod should be there to limit the damage when they don't and he's not more often than he is.

But sometime Mcleod wasn't supposed to be back there. Even Fisher's said.

 

[lockdnram21]

Because McLeod has been to blame on quite a few TD screw-ups over the past two years.

So Janoris just gets a pass. Don't get me wrong I like Jenkins that's why my screen names is LockDn 21 but dude is Mr Double move and I don't mean it in a good way. My Hope is Tru comes back strong. I don't think he was completely healed last year

 

[Alan]

lockdnram21 thinking he's not the whole problem:
But sometime Mcleod wasn't supposed to be back there. Even Fisher's said.

That would be why I said "he's not more often than he is." It's also one of the reasons I haven't been all in on JJ either.

I still think JJ's the best we have though. Some might think Gaines is but despite his overall good play last year, he had trouble against bigger guys. He'll always have trouble against bigger guys and that will only get worse as big tall WRs are the flavor of the month. They'll probably be the flavor of the next decade or ten. You can't coach height.

 

[jrry32]

So Janoris just gets a pass. Don't get me wrong I like Jenkins that's why my screen names is LockDn 21 but dude is Mr Double move and I don't mean it in a good way. My Hope is Tru comes back strong. I don't think he was completely healed last year

Yes, Janoris gets a pass. Because placing blame on McLeod for his mistakes gives Janoris a pass.