Football Outsiders: No change in Rams' record: 6-10/Wagoner

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RamBill

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Football Outsiders: No change in Rams' record
By Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/18447/football-outsiders-no-change-in-rams-record

EARTH CITY, Mo. -- Now that the NFL draft is complete, the look of rosters around the NFL will likely resemble the look of rosters when the season starts.

Yes, teams have plenty of players to cut and some surprises will emerge as some players find their way to the waiver wire, but for the most part, the key players for every team are now known.

With that in mind, the folks at Football Outsiders have been running their projections for team records around the league. On Tuesday morning, they revealed their record projections for the NFC. Though they see one team enjoying a breakthrough turnaround in the NFC, that team is not the St. Louis Rams. It's the Atlanta Falcons.

Instead, the Football Outsiders see the Rams finishing with the same 6-10 record they had in 2014.

According to their method, the Rams will finish in a tie for last place in the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals, a team they clearly see as due for a drop in 2015. In fact, the Seattle Seahawks, with a projected record of 12-4, are the only NFC West team the Outsiders project to have a winning record.

As for the Rams, the general argument for them failing to improve in 2015 boils down to their projected question marks on the offense and expecting a bit of a decline on defense and special teams, where the Rams have fared well in recent seasons.

I tend to disagree with the idea that the Rams will take a step backward on defense and special teams. In fact, the defense looks poised to take a step forward now that it has a year with coordinator Gregg Williams under its belt. An argument can be made that the window for the defense is starting to head toward a close, but it doesn't feel like this year will be the year that happens.

However, the questions about the offense are planted in reality. The Rams look like they have improved at quarterback with Nick Foles, but they still have questions all over the offensive line and their receiving corps remains without a clear-cut No. 1 option. Rookie running back Todd Gurley should theoretically help the run game evolve into what coach Jeff Fisher has envisioned, but it remains to be seen when Gurley will be healthy.

So, Rams fans, what say you? This is the time of year when hope springs eternal for fans all over the league. Do you believe the Rams have made enough improvements and will get enough production from the returning pieces to take the next step and get above .500 for the first time since 2003?
 

Rmfnlt

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Looks like Wagoner has been conferring with JT!
 

Big Game

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Soooo we go 6-10 last year with basically career backup guys at QB guys learning a new defense. And despite all that was in every game and at the end of the year was one of the best defensive football units in the NFL.

And lets see we upgrade the QB position we upgrade the running back position we upgrade the OLine and even upgraded the defense this offseason and we still only win 6 games. Hmmm yeah i'm not buying that.
 

Warner4Prez

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Hell, USA Today has us ranked #11 in their pre season power rankings. This squad is seriously hard to peg.
 

Akrasian

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The Rams had to rely on their 3rd string QB much of the season, and never had their first string QB. Their #1 receiver missed much of the season. Early in the year the defense was adjusting to major defensive changes. Their top running back wasn't ready to pass block until a third of the way through the season. Their OL had all 3 centers injured at the same time, their LT out for most of the year, etc.

I may be a homer, but 6-10 is a worst case scenario, if there are a bunch of injuries. I expect a winning record, though not the playoffs this year.
 

Alan

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I wish people would stop interjecting doses of reality into my day. Let's all go back to the post where Legs gives me some of his shrooms and we finish 15-1. :)

At least Nick likes us better than the Football Outsiders do.

I agree with Nick that our D should be improved (I'd go so far as to say much improved) and really, how could our O not be better this year? The subtraction of Wells and Joseph should be good for two more wins right there.
 

Memento

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Below the Whiners? Are these guys serious? The Whiners lost their running game, their top wide receivers, parts of their offensive line, have pretty much nothing at middle linebacker or cornerback or safety, and the only coach who put them into relevance this century is gone.

Again. Below the Whiners? That's an even bigger insult than the projected record.
 

snackdaddy

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I'm not all that optimistic but 6-10 might be understated a bit, IMO. I agree 6-10 is worst case scenario. Best case scenario in my opinion is 10-6. Which means think 8-8 is more likely than either scenario.

I want to believe. But we're likely going to be starting guys with little to no experience at 3 of the 5 offensive line positions. Our new star at running back won't likely be ready in the first half of the season. We're returning all of our receivers which didn't exactly strike fear in opposing defenses. Our quarterback has more questions about his game than answers.

The only reason for optimism I believe is the defense had some shining moments last year and should get off to a better start with a full season under their belts in Williams system. A very strong line got even stronger with Fairly. Linebackers should be improved with Ayers. The secondary has improved. Overall this defense has a chance to be dominant.

But if the offense can't score they will eventually be playing catch up in the 2nd half which takes the run game out of the equation. If this team can't run the ball it will be hard for them to win. The offense has to improve over last year in order for this team to have a chance at the playoffs.
 

HeiseNBerg

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With that in mind, the folks at Football Outsiders have been running their projections for team records around the league. On Tuesday morning, they revealed their record projections for the NFC. Though they see one team enjoying a breakthrough turnaround in the NFC, that team is not the St. Louis Rams. It's the Atlanta Falcons.

Instead, the Football Outsiders see the Rams finishing with the same 6-10 record they had in 2014.

According to their method, the Rams will finish in a tie for last place in the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals, a team they clearly see as due for a drop in 2015. In fact, the Seattle Seahawks, with a projected record of 12-4, are the only NFC West team the Outsiders project to have a winning record.

So.....how close have Football Outsider's preseason predictions come to the actual outcome at season's end, in recent years?

Gee, Nick -- you'd think that would be worth mentioning.
 

yrba1

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Probably salty with the Rams, it's like the St. Louis journalists are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy to have them to LA, especially Bernie.
 

DaveFan'51

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Hell, USA Today has us ranked #11 in their pre season power rankings. This squad is seriously hard to peg.
I like this, let the Rams keep them guessing and stay under the radar!
And PLEASE LORD let the Rams get another Reporter other than Wagoner!!!!!!
 

CGI_Ram

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Well, I am okay with being underestimated.

But...

If we went 6-10 in 2014 being down to our 3rd/4th string QB, I don't know how someone predicts we go 6-10 again... Unless you assume we lose our 1st and 2nd string QB's - AGAIN.

(n)
 

RamzFanz

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and expecting a bit of a decline on defense and special teams

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat the F*%K? Decline? Decline? Decline with a sophomore Donald? A more experienced... everyone? Fairley? Ayers? Second season in the same D scheme? Let me guess, these guys live in Colorado?

6-10 will NEVER happen with this team unless disaster strikes. It's unthinkably low. Gurley? Foles? Easier schedule? Quick? 1,600 LBS of NASTY? Bailey emerging? Mason?

Seriously, no homerism needed, that is a stupid prediction with no possible logical supporting argument.
 

Mojo Ram

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If the offensive production can climb out of the annual NFL basement and just get to "average" this team will win alot of games and challenge for the division. Obviously that means having a starting caliber QB which we haven't had much of at all in the last two seasons.
When your QB's are Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis and Shaun Hill and you have a playoff caliber defense...six, seven and eight win seasons are what you're gonna get. Those QB's are NOT game managers, they're backups. Period.

Foles need to play well, not get injured, and not turn the ball over. A game managing QB attached to a solid running game and our defense? 10-6
 

HometownBoy

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Why does it seem like our guys are always the biggest, whiniest bitches about the team? Like they don't ever have any hope until one guy is like, I think the Rams will be fine and then they all parrot him to hell and back.

But hey, a ray of hope. Usually these guys are shitting themselves with pride and things tank. So conversely now they're abandoning ship so things are on the way up, yeah?
 

lockdnram21

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I'm tired op people with this damn #1 receiver bull. RECEIVER WAS NOT THE PROBLEM LAST SEASON QB AND LINE AND QB WAS. You fix those 2 things and we're ready go. We may not have a dez bryant or Megatron but imo we have just as good of receivers as Seahawks and they went to super bowl twice in a row