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Disclaimer: this is a long and rambling post because I'm bored and waiting on Friday. Read at your own risk.
One thing I have been thinking about for a while now as I watch McVay's offense change year to year with different players is the old predominance of 11 sets in McVay's best offenses. The link between the higher performance overall and its correlation to 11 sets.
Now first off I realize that OL performance has impacted our offense, as has QB performance. But I want to set those two things aside for the purpose of this discussion, assuming anyone thinks this discussion is relative to things as I do. We don't need another Goff or OL thread, we have beat them both to death and I want to move on as it were.
Back to the 11 sets I associate the higher success in the passing game to the multiplicity of matchup problems we presented to defenses during those seasons. Say what you will about Cooks but we really felt his loss in 2019 (concussion and confidence issues even when he was on the field) and 2020 (none of our guys were able to step up and replace him). Waiting in the wings for this season is Jefferson, but also Jackson. Are either of those guys up to snuff when compared to 2018 Brandin Cooks? I'm curious what you guys think but for me I would say no. So it is possible I think that the Rams draft a WR to help address that shortfall, and I would just suggest that if they were to do that having special teams impact would be of very high value which means a guy like Eskridge seems to fit, to my eye at least, because he can do things like returns or even gunner. To me at least he's a perfect fit for what we need and should be a guy they can target with their picks (I see him slated quite a bit in round 3-4 range). I like some others too, like Amari Rodgers, but he's not quite as good a fit on the teams side.
But adding wideout is not the only way to improve this offense. My theory here is that the 11 personnel rates being so high in 2017 and 2018 related moreso to talent comparison between our third wideout vs Everett than it did some preference of McVay's to get all 11 crazy. He basically put the best guys on the field. And so it jives that we suddenly see a return to more 12 sets in 2020 when our third wideout option is much more limited and allowed for Everett to get on the field more as part of a 12 set.
If that is true what does that mean for our TE position? Well to me it means that TE offers significant room for upgrade. But what type of TE are the Rams going to be looking for? The answer is an "F" type TE would be their target. Looking at our depth chart we have one "F" type option, that being Hopkins. Who we have discussed quite a bit around here. And who, no matter what any of us may think about him, failed to even so much as sniff the field last year, even late in the year when things aligned for him to get a look or two. For me this is an important tell.
Now there is a part of me that wonders what Higs can do if the Rams were to add a classic blocking TE and move him to more of a pass game role. But of course scheme plays a big role in all that, where if they did get a good blocking TE then why not use them both on the inline which allows for more deception. And honestly I'm not sure what Higs will be if they were to give him primary looks in the pattern in this offense with 9 throwing him the ball. That may be a discussion in and of itself but for this post I will assume they want an "F" upgrade who can hold his own in comparison to the wideout group.
How many TEs in this draft can do that? Well that's kind of a depressing question. But there's a silver lining IMO as it pertains to the Rams because what you're seeing in college is a tendency to play guys who have that "F" build of big size and good feet/athleticism as wideouts. In a way it's sort of trending like Edge/DE has where multiplicity has driven scouts to view them more on what things they do well vice whether they fit one specific scheme. So this is a long way of saying that there are some very big and mobile WRs in this draft who could "move to TE" for us which tbh is nothing more than playing them inside the hash. Which, btw, is another trend that has affected the defenses and why we see 20 used in the slot in our defense but that's another interesting discussion in and of itself to me at least.
What does this mean for the draft? It means some of the big wideouts who maybe aren't the best route runners might be in play for us. I say some of them because you still have to have some physicality to you in order to be an F type TE. Plus the Rams require their passing game weapons to at the very least be willing to block and get in the way for the ball carrier. Who would be fits for that role? Well to my eye here's a few:
Brevin Jordan. Better version of Everett coming out in terms of his run game threat with the ball. The guy is nasty when he gets that rock in space. He's gonna need a little time but down the road he's the kind of weapon that might be able to challenge for some playing time vs the wideout group. The type of TE that McVay seems to prefer. I don't love his film but that upside is real.
Simi Fehoko. I love Fehoko's film. He's got a real nice fluid nature to his movement, good all around player who also has strength in his game and some suddenness for that big a frame. The guy is a perfect fit as an F in this offense IMO. His future in the NFL is TE IMO. And best of all the guy is slated to go in a range the Rams are all over.
Hunter Long. He's one of those sneaky types that ends up getting open. The guy is productive. He won't smoke an ILB one on one with high percentage but he'll get open over and over somehow because he's a balanced guy that can get overlooked. Not a great athlete but I think he could help us opposite Higbee sort of like Friermuth would. Note that these types of TEs are not what McVay seems to prefer. But since he'd be able to start for us rather quickly I have to think he would be in play assuming they're not secretly high on Hopkins.
What will be interesting is if Friermuth is there at 57. He looks like Herman Munster to me. The guy is not sudden or a speed threat by any stretch. But he trucks DBs like an older brother. So idk. Definitely not an F in this offense but I find myself wondering what he would do in that role for us.
One thing I have been thinking about for a while now as I watch McVay's offense change year to year with different players is the old predominance of 11 sets in McVay's best offenses. The link between the higher performance overall and its correlation to 11 sets.
Now first off I realize that OL performance has impacted our offense, as has QB performance. But I want to set those two things aside for the purpose of this discussion, assuming anyone thinks this discussion is relative to things as I do. We don't need another Goff or OL thread, we have beat them both to death and I want to move on as it were.
Back to the 11 sets I associate the higher success in the passing game to the multiplicity of matchup problems we presented to defenses during those seasons. Say what you will about Cooks but we really felt his loss in 2019 (concussion and confidence issues even when he was on the field) and 2020 (none of our guys were able to step up and replace him). Waiting in the wings for this season is Jefferson, but also Jackson. Are either of those guys up to snuff when compared to 2018 Brandin Cooks? I'm curious what you guys think but for me I would say no. So it is possible I think that the Rams draft a WR to help address that shortfall, and I would just suggest that if they were to do that having special teams impact would be of very high value which means a guy like Eskridge seems to fit, to my eye at least, because he can do things like returns or even gunner. To me at least he's a perfect fit for what we need and should be a guy they can target with their picks (I see him slated quite a bit in round 3-4 range). I like some others too, like Amari Rodgers, but he's not quite as good a fit on the teams side.
But adding wideout is not the only way to improve this offense. My theory here is that the 11 personnel rates being so high in 2017 and 2018 related moreso to talent comparison between our third wideout vs Everett than it did some preference of McVay's to get all 11 crazy. He basically put the best guys on the field. And so it jives that we suddenly see a return to more 12 sets in 2020 when our third wideout option is much more limited and allowed for Everett to get on the field more as part of a 12 set.
If that is true what does that mean for our TE position? Well to me it means that TE offers significant room for upgrade. But what type of TE are the Rams going to be looking for? The answer is an "F" type TE would be their target. Looking at our depth chart we have one "F" type option, that being Hopkins. Who we have discussed quite a bit around here. And who, no matter what any of us may think about him, failed to even so much as sniff the field last year, even late in the year when things aligned for him to get a look or two. For me this is an important tell.
Now there is a part of me that wonders what Higs can do if the Rams were to add a classic blocking TE and move him to more of a pass game role. But of course scheme plays a big role in all that, where if they did get a good blocking TE then why not use them both on the inline which allows for more deception. And honestly I'm not sure what Higs will be if they were to give him primary looks in the pattern in this offense with 9 throwing him the ball. That may be a discussion in and of itself but for this post I will assume they want an "F" upgrade who can hold his own in comparison to the wideout group.
How many TEs in this draft can do that? Well that's kind of a depressing question. But there's a silver lining IMO as it pertains to the Rams because what you're seeing in college is a tendency to play guys who have that "F" build of big size and good feet/athleticism as wideouts. In a way it's sort of trending like Edge/DE has where multiplicity has driven scouts to view them more on what things they do well vice whether they fit one specific scheme. So this is a long way of saying that there are some very big and mobile WRs in this draft who could "move to TE" for us which tbh is nothing more than playing them inside the hash. Which, btw, is another trend that has affected the defenses and why we see 20 used in the slot in our defense but that's another interesting discussion in and of itself to me at least.
What does this mean for the draft? It means some of the big wideouts who maybe aren't the best route runners might be in play for us. I say some of them because you still have to have some physicality to you in order to be an F type TE. Plus the Rams require their passing game weapons to at the very least be willing to block and get in the way for the ball carrier. Who would be fits for that role? Well to my eye here's a few:
Brevin Jordan. Better version of Everett coming out in terms of his run game threat with the ball. The guy is nasty when he gets that rock in space. He's gonna need a little time but down the road he's the kind of weapon that might be able to challenge for some playing time vs the wideout group. The type of TE that McVay seems to prefer. I don't love his film but that upside is real.
Simi Fehoko. I love Fehoko's film. He's got a real nice fluid nature to his movement, good all around player who also has strength in his game and some suddenness for that big a frame. The guy is a perfect fit as an F in this offense IMO. His future in the NFL is TE IMO. And best of all the guy is slated to go in a range the Rams are all over.
Hunter Long. He's one of those sneaky types that ends up getting open. The guy is productive. He won't smoke an ILB one on one with high percentage but he'll get open over and over somehow because he's a balanced guy that can get overlooked. Not a great athlete but I think he could help us opposite Higbee sort of like Friermuth would. Note that these types of TEs are not what McVay seems to prefer. But since he'd be able to start for us rather quickly I have to think he would be in play assuming they're not secretly high on Hopkins.
What will be interesting is if Friermuth is there at 57. He looks like Herman Munster to me. The guy is not sudden or a speed threat by any stretch. But he trucks DBs like an older brother. So idk. Definitely not an F in this offense but I find myself wondering what he would do in that role for us.