Dumbest playcall ever....

[Leuzer]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...russell-wilson-to-win-mvp-over-marshawn-lynch

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...russell-wilson-to-win-mvp-over-marshawn-lynch

All the better for Rams fans. It is sounding just like a replay of USC with players being too impowered and start questioning Pete's motives. Seattle had some divisiveness in the locker room too this year. Those things kind of ruin the warm fuzzy feeling Pete tries to instill.

I walked the same type of line that Carroll does with my crew members years ago, giving them respect and boosting their egos, trying to maximize their potential and it worked with the right kind of kid. However it can be disastrous with the wrong mix of people. Smart guys see through the BS and either resent it or I try to take advantage of it. Some just are not inclined to trust your sincerity. I don't understand how that can work with a fifty two man roster. Pete regards himself as some kind of motivational guru. But, I watched him at a QB camp and his routine really came across as fake to me.

 

[LumberTubs]

I recorded the game and watched it last night British time. I haven't read all of this thread but my view is how bad can the play call have been when the receiver is wide open. The pick they set up to try to block Butler didn't work 100% but it did enough to give Wilson and the receiver the space they needed.

Wilson then threw it so that Butler caught it up on his right shoulder! If he throws it to his receiver's numbers or the receiver's left shoulder away from Butler then it's a TD and a repeat championship. This one is on Wilson in my opinion. It was a terrible throw on what should be routine stuff for such an "amazing QB" (blue font).

I don't particularly like the Patriots but I couldn't see past the divisional rivalry and cheered when Butler came up with that ball.

 

[shaunpinney]

Surely, it would be the best call in the world, and the best game-winning drive had the 'hawks caught the ball though? It was only dumb because it failed to get them 6 points.

As @LumberTubs said, if the pass would have been executed better, with the pass to the receiver's left should, badabing you've got yourselves six points...

...still however poor the pass was executed, Butler read the play perfectly and secured that ball. I thoroughly enjoyed the game, it was a good advert for American Football, full of twists and turns.

The only bit I found disappointing was the punch up at the end. Talk about unsportsmanlike conduct, that was a toys out of the pram moment and really didn't look good.

 

[Rmfnlt]

Oh he definitely had a better track to the ball (Butler) once he read Wilson's eyes. You're right about that.
My problem isn't with Lockette's aggressiveness, in as much as it is with the throw (placement) itself.

OK... so I did go back and watch it again last night.

My take is that Lockette couldn't have done anything more than what he did.

To me, he didn't have an opportunity to out-muscle Butler... the ball was thrown such that he never had a chance.

I also heard Wilson (and some prior QBs) say the ball should have been thrown on his back shoulder (not lead him as much as he did). Looking at the play, that appears to be the case. Had Wilson thrown to his back shoulder, I don't think Butler would have had a chance to intercept the ball.

Anyway, that's what I think I saw.

Onto off season.... :coffee:

 

[Rmfnlt]

I recorded the game and watched it last night British time. I haven't read all of this thread but my view is how bad can the play call have been when the receiver is wide open. The pick they set up to try to block Butler didn't work 100% but it did enough to give Wilson and the receiver the space they needed.

Wilson then threw it so that Butler caught it up on his right shoulder! If he throws it to his receiver's numbers or the receiver's left shoulder away from Butler then it's a TD and a repeat championship. This one is on Wilson in my opinion. It was a terrible throw on what should be routine stuff for such an "amazing QB" (blue font).

I don't particularly like the Patriots but I couldn't see past the divisional rivalry and cheered when Butler came up with that ball.

Yup... that's how I see it... the pick was on Wilson.

 

[Rmfnlt]

Bellichick had 6 DL 2 LB and 3 CBs, no safeties . . .in his goaline package because there was not a jumbo offense with a Fb and TE or 2 TEs, they had 1 TE and 3 WRs in.

Hmmm.... great pick-up!

 

[-X-]

Interesting stats by Sando


View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562134369025163265


View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562159988316311552


View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562655878751727616

 

[HeiseNBerg]

 

[Stranger]

View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562134369025163265

https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562134369025163265
Weren't we on the 1-yrd line against San Diego this yr when we threw that INT at the end of the game?

View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562655878751727616

Ouch ... that stat really stings. Shecock fans will never ever live this one down. It's going to create permanent scars.

 

[-X-]

Weren't we on the 1-yrd line against San Diego this yr when we threw that INT at the end of the game?

4 yard line.

 

[Prime Time]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/03/russell-wilson-has-no-doubt-about-the-play-call/

Russell Wilson has “no doubt” about the play call
Posted by Mike Florio on February 3, 2015

AP

Two days later, thousands continue to question the decision of Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell to call for a slant pass instead of a run from Marshawn Lynch with a second straight Super Bowl hanging in the balance. Some Seahawks have openly questioned the decision.

Quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t. And Wilson won’t.

“I had no doubt in the play call,” Wilson told reporters on Tuesday. “I still don’t to this day.”

Wilson explained that the right talent was on the field, but that the Seahawks simply didn’t make the play.

“[W]e’ve got Doug Baldwin in the game, we’ve got Jermaine Kearse, we’ve got [Ricardo] Lockette in the game and we’ve got Marshawn Lynch and we’ve got Luke Willson, one of our other tight ends in the game and then obviously, I’m in the game, too, so it’s a tough personnel to stop,” Wilson said.

But stop it the Patriots did. Appearing on PFT Live on NBC Sports Radio, Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon of the Seahawks Radio Network said the call was fine but the execution wasn’t. And Moon blamed Wilson for the throw, Lockette for not getting through to the ball, and Kearse for not shedding Patriots cornerback Brandon Browner and executing the rub/pick on Patriots defensive back Marcus Butler.

Peter King of TheMMQB.com likewise criticized Kearse on PFT Live for not cutting off Butler — and King also argued that the Seahawks shouldn’t have worried about having enough time to run two more plays if Seattle had run the ball on second down, fallen short, and called a time out.

Wilson seems to be ready to forget about those details and to look forward to the next game that counts.

“I think that’s where our mindset is, that’s where my mindset is, ‘Okay, how can I move on in the future?’ Just like last year when we won the Super Bowl — I was already thinking about the next opportunity,” Wilson said. “Even though we lost the game, we felt like we should have won it. Okay, now it’s to the next opportunity that we had and that’s how we’ve always been ever since I’ve been here and thinking about it. . . .

“I always kind of write down stuff and I wrote down this, ‘Let’s keep the focus on the future, not what’s behind.’ I think that’s a really, really important thought in terms of staying positive. What can I do for the next opportunity that I have? What can I learn? Good or bad — if we had won the Super Bowl or if we had lost in the fashion that we had. I would still be thinking the same way and I think keeping that consistent approach to life in general and this is a lot bigger than obviously, losing the game is tough but any life circumstance — losing my dad.

What do I do next? How can I learn from the lessons of losing him? And obviously losing a game is completely different than losing a family member. Those are the type of things that I think about. That’s how I try to prepare my mind for the next opportunity that I have — the next thing that I have in my life that comes up.”

Wilson still can’t go forward without looking backward; Wilson said he’s already watched film of the Super Bowl loss 12 times. That’s the kind of resolve everyone in the locker room will need if the Seahawks are to follow one of the most devastating losses in Super Bowl history with a second NFL title in three years.

 

[Thordaddy]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/03/russell-wilson-has-no-doubt-about-the-play-call/

Russell Wilson has “no doubt” about the play call
Posted by Mike Florio on February 3, 2015

AP

Two days later, thousands continue to question the decision of Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell to call for a slant pass instead of a run from Marshawn Lynch with a second straight Super Bowl hanging in the balance. Some Seahawks have openly questioned the decision.

Quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t. And Wilson won't.

At least until his new contract is inked

 

[Rmfnlt]

Interesting stats by Sando


View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562134369025163265


View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562159988316311552


View: https://twitter.com/SandoESPN/status/562655878751727616

I have seen stats on how successful the Seahawks were when running the ball from the 1 yard line... I think it showed they were not that successful?

But then I heard a stat on ESPN about how successful New Englad was in stopping opponents from scoring a running TD from the 1 yard line and it was terrible. Basically, they failed to stop the opponent almost every time.

It is what it is.... I think running made a lot of sense.... I think passing wasn't a terrible idea... but I think that type of pass (over the middle and into a lot of traffic) was not the smartest idea.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

To use a baseball analogy, sometimes a power pitcher "speeds up the bat" of a weak hitter by needlessly tossing a hanging curve.

The flow of the game...NE was beat (after that lucky catch and ensuing 5 yd run) they (imo) could not have stopped the run (at that point) if their collective lives depended on it, what was it Yogi Berra once said, something like "baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" I actually get that

The way I see it, they got a little too cute & tossed up a hanging curve when they already had the Patriots beat down running the ball, the rest is history.

That being said, the execution of the play was obviously pretty poor, just like the fiasco in San Diego.

 

[Prime Time]

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/02/04/russell-wilson-super-bowl-49-interception-statistical-analysis/

John Biever/SI/The MMQB

There Was a 3.1% Chance of an Interception
'Worst play call in NFL history'? Hardly. Looking at all plays from the 1-yard line over the past 15 seasons, and factoring in time management, the Seahawks' play-calling wasn't ideal, but it wasn't that bad either
By Keith Goldner
numberFire.com

Super Bowl XLIX ended with one of the most incredible plays in NFL history: Malcolm Butler jumping Russell Wilson’s quick slant at the 1-yard line. After the interception, Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell were immediately crucified for the decision to pass instead of run the ball with beast of a running back Marshawn Lynch. Emmitt Smith, Peter King and many others called it some variation of “the worst play call in the history of football.” But was it really? We analyzed the numbers to find out.

The Situation
A refresher: The Seahawks were down four with 26 seconds remaining. Seattle, the most efficient rushing team in the NFL since 2000, faced a second-and-goal. They had one timeout remaining and New England, with three defensive backs on the field, lined up in man-to-man coverage against Seattle’s three-receiver set.

The Logic
In the NFL, with man-to-man coverage, the advantage goes to the offense. After burning two timeouts earlier in the drive, and with only 26 seconds remaining, it was not really feasible for the Seahawks to run the ball three straight plays. If they ran the ball on second down and failed, they would need to call their final timeout. Without a timeout, if they ran and were stopped on third down, it is unlikely they would have time to lineup for a fourth-down attempt. There are massive pileups at the goal line and it takes a while to get unpiled and set up. Obviously, three plays to score the go-ahead touchdown are better than two.

So, it appears the Seahawks would need to throw the ball on either second or third down to ensure three attempts. By throwing on second down and conserving their timeout, the Patriots would still have to play for either the pass or the run on third down. If they ran on second down, the Seahawks would almost surely pass on third down—which simplifies things for Bill Belichick’s defense.

The Execution
Every time I watch the play, I’m more and more convinced it was actually the execution that could have been better, rather than the play call. Ricardo Lockette runs a quick slant behind Jermaine Kearse, who tries (and fails) to set a pick for him. Lockette is certainly open, but Butler makes a tremendous break on the ball, somehow coming up with the interception.

If Wilson throws that ball into Lockette’s chest, like a quarterback is supposed to do on that throw, that’s a touchdown (or, worst case, an incompletion). If Lockette goes in stronger and anticipates the contact—which it appeared he did not—he’s in position for a touchdown as well (or, worst case, an incompletion).

It’s up to the quarterback and the receiver to make sure the defender has to go through the back of the receiver in order to make a play on the slant. While this is not the exact same situation (since they are at the 11-yard line, not the goal line), look where Tom Brady puts this ball on the slant to Brandon LaFell for a touchdown earlier in the game. Also, look at how LaFell has positioned himself between the ball and the corner.

The Stats
Enough qualitative analysis—what do the numbers say? If you recall earlier this year,we wrote about goal-to-go scenarios after the Eagles chose to pass the ball instead of run it at the goal line against the 49ers. Since 2000, teams on the 1-yard line have run the ball 74.0% of the time and were successful 53.9% of the time. Teams passing succeeded 48.3% of the time.

This year, both numbers were significantly higher. Teams ran in 129 touchdowns on 226 attempts (57.1%) and threw 66 touchdowns on 115 attempts (57.4%). But keep in mind, one year of data is still a pretty small sample size. 2013’s touchdown rate was just 49.5%, so there can be dramatic shifts from year to year.

Many are citing the fact that this was the first interception on the goal line all year. Historically, though, interceptions occur on 3.1% of passing plays from the 1-yard line. The biggest difference between rushing and passing on the goal line is the potential for bad outcomes. Large rushing losses are not common on dive plays, only fumbles. With a pass play, there are interceptions, sacks, and fumbles. Since 2000, sacks occurred on 4.4% of pass plays from the 1. Fumbles (both lost and recovered by the offense) occurred on 3.1% of rushing plays and 1.0% of pass plays (about half of those resulted in turnovers).

Our internal efficiency metric at numberFire.com, Net Expected Points (NEP) tells us that rushing plays at the 1 average +0.15 NEP per attempt, while pass plays lose -0.05 per drop back. That’s a one-point difference for every five plays.

These league-wide baselines are a great starting point, but unfortunately, they do not take into account the specific teams playing, score differential, time remaining, or personnel groupings.

In 2014, the Patriots faced seven plays at the goal line (six rush, one pass). They surrendered six touchdowns (five on rushes, one through the air). The Seahawks ran nine plays from the goal line, running the ball seven times (scoring just three times, 42.9%) and throwing twice (scoring once). These sample sizes are clearly far too small to draw any conclusions.

Last, let’s look at the specific situation: down by four to eight points (one possession but more than a field goal) with under one minute remaining. Since 2000, there are 73 such situations with a success rate of just 42.5%—dramatically lower than the rest of the game. Passes converted 48.5% of the time and rushes a measly 37.5% on 40 attempts.

This is, of course, another small sample size issue and there is a slight sample bias in that the trailing team will typically be the less-efficient team. If we look at all trailing teams, that expands the sample to 153 plays: 41.1% pass success, 43.0% run success. It’s also worth noting that the pass-to-run ratio is much closer to 50-50 in these end-of-game situations.

In short-yardage situations, running the ball is generally the better option. But, teams cannot run the ball every time, as there is a huge element of game theory in play calling. Offenses try to capitalize and increase their odds with specific matchups (like man-to-man coverage).

There does appear to be a decline in conversion rates in these high-stress situations, when quick but critical judgments need to be made. We would need more data, though, to truly verify this theory.

The Seahawks probably should have run the ball—although that’s much easier to say with hindsight on our side. Conversion rates are higher and thus, the Seahawks chances of winning would be higher, we estimate by about 5.6%. But, was the decision to throw the ball the worst play call in history? Not even close.

If the Seahawks score there, no one thinks twice about the decision. Instead, Belichick would be ridiculed for the blatant mistake of not taking his timeouts once the Seahawks were in a goal-to-go scenario. But the interception happened, so it’s Carroll taking the heat.

Keith Goldner is the chief analyst at numberFire.com. Follow him @keithgoldner.

 

[Mojo Ram]

and King also argued that the Seahawks shouldn’t have worried about having enough time to run two more plays if Seattle had run the ball on second down, fallen short, and called a time out.

Yep. Lynch averaged 4.2/carry in that game. You've got a timeout in your pocket. NE's defense was reeling. Pound it in.

 

[Stranger]

Yep. Lynch averaged 4.2/carry in that game. You've got a timeout in your pocket. NE's defense was reeling. Pound it in.

Naw, pass it. There's only a 3.1% chance of an interception.